Russia and China to Discuss Iranian Nuclear Program Following Joint Naval Drills

Latest Developments:

• UK Threatens Sanctions Snapback on Iran: Deputy foreign ministers from Russia and China will meet in Beijing on March 14 to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. The meeting comes after the United Nations Security Council convened in New York on March 12 for a closed-door discussion on the reported expansion of Iran’s near weapons-grade uranium stockpile. After the meeting, the United Kingdom — which called for the meeting along with the United States, France, Greece, Panama, and South Korea — indicated that Iran’s actions could trigger the snapback of UN sanctions.
• Iran, China, Russia Conduct Military Exercises: Iran, Russia, and China conducted their fifth annual joint naval drills on March 11 in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s state-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported that the drills are designed to strengthen “multilateral cooperation,” “ensure maritime security,” and demonstrate “the capabilities of the participants to project world peace.” Several states took part as observers in the exercise, including Azerbaijan, South Africa, Oman, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Qatar, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Sri Lanka.
• Iran Increased Near Weapons-Grade Uranium Stock: The International Atomic Energy Agency, which acts as the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, reported on February 26 that Iran had accelerated its production of near weapons-grade uranium. The Islamic Republic increased its stock of 60 percent enriched uranium by 203.9 pounds since November 2024 to a total of 605.8 pounds — enough for seven nuclear weapons. Russia, China, and Iran see themselves as a bulwark against U.S.-led Western hegemony and have improved their ties in recent years, with Russia and Iran signing a strategic partnership agreement in January and China — the largest buyer of Iran’s illicit oil exports — signing a 25-year partnership agreement with Iran in 2021.

FDD Expert Response

“Almost daily, the Islamic Republic of Iran votes with its feet to embrace America’s great power competitors. The meetings to discuss Iran’s nuclear program and trilateral naval drills signal an intent to deepen existing ties. The flurry of economic, political, and military exchanges already underway between Russia, China, and Iran indicate some of the challenges awaiting the Trump administration and the U.S.-led world order in the 21st century.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

“Entrusting China and Russia with an Iran nuclear deal is like asking Darth Vader to establish peace in the galaxy. Beijing and Moscow will recommend another weak deal with sunsetting provisions, poor inspections and access, and one that allows Tehran to retain its nuclear assets for when President Donald Trump leaves office. Only the full, verified, and permanent dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear weapons program can meet the security requirements of the United States and its allies.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

“This exercise is indicative of the ‘Axis of Aggressors’ increasing their cooperation. Historically, there is a significant difference between Russian and Chinese naval cooperation and anything the two countries do with the Iranian Navy and IRGC naval assets. It will be interesting to see how complex these multilateral naval drills actually are.” — RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow and Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology

FDD Background and Analysis

“Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Potential Leaps Ahead of IAEA Meeting,” by Andrea Stricker

“Iran’s Maritime Aggression,” by Ryan Brobst and Bradley Bowman

“‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’: Russia and Iran Set to Sign Pact After Presidential Visit,” FDD Flash Brief

“Russia, China, and Iran deepen ties with naval drill,” by Seth J. Frantzman