U.S. Aid to Ukraine Is More Sustainable Than Putin’s Invasion

Some in Washington argue that U.S. security assistance to Ukraine is unsustainable and that the Russian invasion can continue indefinitely. With U.S. and Ukrainian officials meeting in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, it is important to understand that both beliefs are wrong.

For a cost equivalent to less than 3 percent of Pentagon spending since the 2022 invasion, and without a single American servicemember fighting in Ukraine, U.S.-provided security assistance has thus far helped Ukraine stop Russia from achieving its objective of making Ukraine a vassal state, which would severely threaten European and American security.

Additionally, aid to Ukraine has decreased the chances of further Russian aggression against NATO allies that could result in direct combat between U.S. and Russian forces while sending an important deterrent message to Beijing. It has also strengthened U.S. defense manufacturing to better equip U.S. troops and prepare for competition with China. Clearly, this assistance is not merely charity but also serves core American interests.

The U.S. defense industrial base, which was found lacking in 2022, has significantly ramped up production of key munitions and systems. Production of Javelin missiles, first provided to Ukraine in 2018 by President Trump, is set to double over the next few years. Production of HIMARS has increased such that Taiwan is now set to receive more HIMARS, and on an accelerated timeline, than it was going to receive before the Russian invasion. In part due to increased U.S. and European production of 155 mm artillery shells, Russia’s advantage in artillery fire rates, once one of its major advantages, has severely decreased. These weapons systems have played a key role in holding back Russian forces.

In contrast with early expectations, Russia is still far from decapitating the current Ukrainian government and subjugating Ukraine. In fact, Ukraine has taken back roughly 50 percent of the territory Russian forces captured since 2022 in a series of counterattacks over the last three years and even launched a surprise offensive of its own into Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces still hold a tenuous salient.

While Russian forces have made small gains through a grinding offensive over the past year, an analysis of daily updates released by the Ukrainian General Staff indicates that Russia’s offensive tempo has declined since December. Likewise, the pace of recent Russian advances has slowed in key parts of the front. While this slowdown may have been driven partly by winter weather, it likely also reflects successful Ukrainian adaptation and possibly a degree of Russian exhaustion.

The strain on Russian combat power should come as no surprise given the massive losses Russia has suffered for relatively small gains. Russian forces have sustained hundreds of thousands of casualties since February 2022. Despite Russia’s recent marginal gains, 2024 reportedly proved to be the bloodiest year yet for Russian forces. These staggering casualty levels are highlighted by the fact that Russia is using North Korean troops, who have suffered significant casualties battling Ukrainian forces in Kursk.

The military analysis site Oryx has documented Russian losses of over 3,700 tanks and 8,000 other armored vehicles, which has dismantled a large portion of Russia’s pre-2022 military modernization efforts and has forced reliance on finite stockpiles of older Soviet systems. Russian stockpiles of key systems including artillery, tanks, and armored vehicles are dwindling, with serious implications for Moscow’s ability to sustain its war effort over the long term. As the availability of armor and artillery declines, Russian casualties will likely increase, substantially raising the human cost of sustaining the Kremlin’s war machine and strengthening Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table.

To be sure, the Ukrainian military has suffered enormous losses and has some manpower challenges. But Russian losses have been greater, and the Ukrainian people have shown an exceptional determination to fight and defend their homes when provided the means to do so.

America has fundamental security interests at stake in Ukraine. If Russia’s attempt to redraw borders by force, seize territory and resources, and exterminate a democracy is successful, a Ukrainian defeat could catalyze a series of military actions against U.S. interests across the globe, potentially forcing Americans to pay a much higher price in wars that could have been prevented.

Putin wants us to believe that Ukraine and the United States are weak. The truth is that we are stronger than many realize, and Putin’s greatest fear is that we might realize that reality and start to act more like it.

Cameron McMillan is a research analyst at FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP), where Ryan Brobst is a senior research analyst and Bradley Bowman is the senior director. For more analysis from the authors and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Brad on X @Brad_L_Bowman. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.