Israel SitRep: February 28, 2025

Today’s Issue: | IDF Investigation of October 7 Finds Hamas Was Developing Attack Plan in 2016 | IAF Drone Strike on Thursday Kills Hezbollah Operative Coordinating Weapons-Smuggling Activities | IAF Drone Strike on Wednesday Kills Key Figure in Hezbollah Weapons-Smuggling Unit | Hamas Officials Call For Violence in Jerusalem as Ramadan Begins | Latest FDD Analysis

IDF Investigation of October 7 Finds Hamas Was Developing Attack Plan in 2016: On Thursday Doron Kadosh, military correspondent for Israel Army Radio, wrote about the IDF’s investigation into the failures of October 7, noting that according to the findings, Hamas decided to launch a large surprise attack following Operation Guardian of the Walls in 2021. A Hamas document found in Gaza in 2021 stated, “The defeat of Israel is not impossible. Imagine that if there were a conflict on all fronts, the enemy would not be able to hold out. We must prepare for the liberation, this has now become feasible.” However, as early as 2016, Hamas was preparing a plan for Nukhba forces to attack Israel and take hostages. After Yahya Sinwar came to power in Gaza in 2017, Hamas decided to add deception to the plan. It considered launching the attack twice in 2022, once in April and once in September, when it discussed carrying it out during the Jewish holidays in October. The IDF does not know why Hamas chose not to attack that year. A Hamas document states: “We must continue to work to convince the enemy that Hamas in Gaza is interested in calm and is working for economic prosperity …”

IAF Drone Strike on Thursday Kills Hezbollah Operative Coordinating Weapons-Smuggling Activities: The IDF reported on Friday that on Thursday night, an Israeli Air Force drone strike in the area of Hermel, in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley, eliminated Hezbollah operative Muhammad Mahdi Ali Shahin, who had been coordinating weapons purchases on the Syria-Lebanon border since the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire went into effect. The IDF says that Shahin was an important figure in the Hezbollah geographic unit for the Beqaa region and was recently engaged in moving weapons from Syria to Lebanon. He was responsible for purchasing the weapons and coordinating the arrival of the weapons and their distribution to the various Hezbollah units so that Hezbollah could continue to regroup. He worked with weapons merchants and smugglers on the Syria-Lebanon border and those collaborating with Hezbollah. The IDF states that his activities “were a threat to the state of Israel and its citizens and a blatant violation” of the ceasefire.

IAF Drone Strike on Wednesday Kills Key Figure in Hezbollah Weapons-Smuggling Unit: On Wednesday, an Israeli Air Force drone strike killed Mahran Ali Nasser al-Din, a key figure in Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 weapons-smuggling unit. According to the Alma Research and Education Center, al-Din was struck in a vehicle in Al-Qasr, a Lebanese village located north of Hermel in the Beqaa Valley. The area between Al-Qasr in Lebanon and the Syrian village of Al-Qusayr in Homs province is a well-known weapons-smuggling route, and Al-Qusayr has an official border crossing and several unofficial crossings. The Iranian weapons-smuggling route running from Iran to Iraq to Syria to Lebanon was disrupted by the fall of the Assad regime and the establishment of a new government in Syria. Alma believes, however, that in the area of Homs and to the west of Homs, an important part of the smuggling route, there are weapons remaining that Hezbollah did not move to Lebanon before the regime fell, and that Unit 4400 is attempting to move them there now. This, Alma says, is why the IAF is currently carrying out airstrikes in the area. According to Alma, neither Iran nor Hezbollah has given up on using the smuggling route.

Hamas Officials Call For Violence in Jerusalem as Ramadan Begins: Israeli news outlet Israel Hayom reports that as the month of Ramadan begins, Hamas is attempting to set off a wave of terrorist attacks in Jerusalem. Harun Nasser al-Din, who heads the group’s “Jerusalem Office,” accused Israel of “malicious plans for expulsion and Judaization projects” in connection with Israel’s demolition of illegal buildings in Jerusalem and threatened that “all plans and schemes will be shattered by the escalation of the resistance in all its forms.” He advocated “full confrontation against the occupation’s incursions, an uprising against its projects, and no surrender to attempts at Judaization and expulsion.” After the Israel Police recommended limiting the number of worshippers in al-Aqsa Mosque, located on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, to 10,000 people at a time, Hamas called the limit “a dangerous escalation and precedent aimed at undermining freedom of worship at Al-Aqsa Mosque,” threatening Israel about “the consequences of implementing these recommendations” and warning that if escalation occurred it would be Israel’s responsibility. In addition, a senior Hamas official issued a call to escalate “resistance in all its forms in Jerusalem.” Meanwhile, the Israel Police announced on Friday that officers from the Jerusalem District Police and Border Police, as well as additional reinforcements, will be deployed during Ramadan in various places, especially the Old City and the holy places.

Latest FDD Analysis:

Today at 8:30am (ET): “FDD Morning Brief,” hosted by Jonathan Schanzer featuring conversation with Bradley Bowman and Adam Tarsi, FDD Event

“Lebanon May Be Ready for Peace With Israel. Both Sides Need to Prepare,” Hussain Abdul-Hussain, Haaretz

“Israel strikes southern Syria amid continued demands for demilitarization,” Seth J. Frantzman, FDD’s Long War Journal

“Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Potential Leaps Ahead of IAEA Meeting,” Andrea Stricker, FDD Policy Brief

“Houthis Attack U.S. Fighter Jet and Drone,” Bridget Toomey, FDD Policy Brief

“Hamas Releases Bodies of Four Slain Hostages to Complete Phase One of Ceasefire,” FDD Experts, FDD Flash Brief

“‘We Want a Meaningful Deal’: South African President in Overture to Trump Following Aid Cut,” FDD Experts, FDD Flash Brief

“Israel Kills ‘Key’ Terrorist Responsible for Rearming Hezbollah,” FDD Experts, FDD Flash Brief

“Palestinian Terrorist Carries Out Combined Car Ramming, Stabbing Attack in Central Israel,” FDD Experts, FDD Flash Brief