January 24, 2025 | Flash Brief
‘Not Written in Stone’: Israel Set to Extend Lebanon Truce Deadline
January 24, 2025 | Flash Brief
‘Not Written in Stone’: Israel Set to Extend Lebanon Truce Deadline
Latest Developments
- LAF Takeover Incomplete: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on January 24 said that the IDF withdrawal from southern Lebanon is not likely to be completed in full by the agreed-upon deadline of January 27. Netanyahu said that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have “not yet fully enforced” their obligations under the terms of the ceasefire. Under a U.S.-mediated ceasefire which began on November 27, Iran-backed Hezbollah was given 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon north of the Litani River, with the LAF enforcing this move and replacing the IDF in positions along the Israeli border. In tandem, the IDF was to pull out of southern Lebanon, which it entered on October 1 to battle Hezbollah and protect displaced Israelis under attack from the terrorist group for more than a year.
- Talks With Trump Administration: Outgoing Israeli ambassador to Washington Mike Herzog said in an interview with Israel’s Army Radio Galgalatz that the agreed-upon 60-day deadline “is not written in stone,” and that the Netanyahu government is in discussions with the Trump administration on achieving a potential 30-day extension. Bloomberg News quoted an unnamed U.S. official who said that the “conditions were in place” to extend the deadline.
- More Hezbollah Assets Unearthed: The IDF said on January 24 that it had uncovered a Hezbollah weapons cache under a mosque in south Lebanon along with hundreds of mortar shells, explosives, rockets, and other munitions. Israeli search-and-destroy missions against Hezbollah infrastructure have continued since November 27, as well as lethal strikes against members of the terrorist group spotted trying to smuggle or set up weaponry for attacks against Israel in violation of the terms of the ceasefire.
FDD Expert Response
“Israel has so far withdrawn from nearly half of the Lebanese territory it controlled during the recent conflict, with handovers to the Lebanese Armed Forces proceeding smoothly and without incident. This sets a vital precedent for Beirut to finally assert its sovereignty and push back against Hezbollah’s dominance. If more time is needed to solidify these gains, so be it. Lebanon is unlikely to resist, and Hezbollah, weakened and diminished by Israel’s decisive summer and fall counter-offensive, is no longer in a position to dictate terms.” — Mark Dubowitz, CEO
“Lebanon, in the nearly 60 days since the ceasefire with Israel went into effect, has failed to act fully on its obligations under the deal and undertake a single action to curb Hezbollah’s armed activities. Israel’s decision to delay its withdrawal from south Lebanon is therefore correct and a reflection of that failure. It also presents Washington with an opportunity to impress upon Lebanon’s new leadership — helmed by former LAF commander and now President Joseph Aoun — the urgent need to finally begin restraining Hezbollah.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow
FDD Background and Analysis
“Israel’s Dilemma in Lebanon,” by Seth J. Frantzman
“Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in Lebanon as ceasefire continues,” by Seth J. Frantzman
“Israel Agrees to Ceasefire Agreement With Lebanon,” FDD Flash Brief
“The impact of Israeli operations on Hezbollah’s organizational structure,” by David Daoud and Ahmad Sharawi