January 14, 2025 | Flash Brief
Lebanon Chooses Nawaf Salam, an Adversary of Israel, as New Prime Minister
January 14, 2025 | Flash Brief
Lebanon Chooses Nawaf Salam, an Adversary of Israel, as New Prime Minister
Latest Developments
- International Court of Justice President Nawaf Salam Named as Prime Minister: ICJ President Nawaf Salam has been nominated as Lebanon’s next prime minister after consultations that followed Joseph Aoun’s election as the country’s president. Salam secured the support of more than two-thirds of the 128-member parliament with 84 votes for the prime minister position. Caretaker PM Najib Mikati received only nine votes.
- Hezbollah and Amal Withheld Support for Salam: Legislators from the Iranian-backed terrorist organization Hezbollah and its Amal allies abstained from endorsing a candidate for prime minister. Hezbollah’s parliamentary leader, Mohammed Raad, criticized the lack of reciprocity after their support for Aoun’s election, stating, “We extended a hand, but it was cut off.” Meanwhile, sources close to Al Jadeed, a Lebanese media outlet, reported that Salam conveyed reassurances to Hezbollah and Amal, emphasizing that his appointment seeks inclusion, not exclusion.
- Anti-Israel Salam Set To Be Replaced With Pro-Israel Judge Sebutinde: Salam presided over ICJ hearings initiated by South Africa alleging that Israel is committing “genocide” in Gaza. During his 11 years at the United Nations as Lebanon’s representative, he consistently attacked Israel, voting for anti-Israel resolutions on 210 separate occasions. Uganda’s Julia Sebutinde is poised to replace Salam at the helm of the ICJ. Sebutinde, currently the court’s vice president, voted against orders for Israel to restrain its war in Gaza.
FDD Expert Response
“Nawaf Salam, if he forms a cabinet that gains parliament’s confidence, will enter office with a heavy burden to bear. He will have to address Lebanon’s compounding crises — a collapsed economy, a worthless currency, bad infrastructure, political and judicial corruption, and reconstruction. All in a term that is likely to last just over a year. Expectations should therefore be kept low, especially when it comes to disarming or restraining Hezbollah. Salam is highly unlikely to juggle his uphill battle to extract Lebanon from near-total collapse while clashing — politically or otherwise — with one of the country’s most socially and politically powerful factions.”— David Daoud, FDD Senior Fellow
“Anti-Hezbollah politicians in Lebanon have long called for leadership change to demonstrate that Hezbollah can be disarmed through the Lebanese Armed Forces. They now have their desired prime ministerial candidate, one not endorsed by Hezbollah or favored by the Iran-backed group. However, despite this shift, Hezbollah maintains significant support, particularly among the Shia Muslim community. The new Lebanese government recognizes the importance of not alienating the Shia, ensuring Hezbollah’s continued influence. Expect some symbolic actions against the group, but they are unlikely to have any lasting impact.” — Ahmad Sharawi, FDD Research Analyst
“The ICJ case against Israel has been an inversion of reality from the beginning, trying to cast Israel as evil in its response to the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. Now, it is becoming clearer that the presiding judge was violating the court’s conflict of interest rules regarding political activity and previous involvement in the case, tarnishing the already invalid proceedings.” — David May, FDD Research Manager and Senior Research Analyst
FDD Background and Analysis
“With No Power or Constitutional Authority, Lebanon’s New President Won’t Disarm Hezbollah,” by David Daoud
“Israel Is Hurting Hezbollah. But It Can’t Rely on Lebanon to Finish the Job,” by David Daoud and Ahmad Sharawi
“The ICJ’s New Chief Judge Has a History of Bias Against Israel,” by Orde Kittrie