Turkey Brokers Agreement Between Ethiopia and Somalia, Denting Egypt’s Regional Standing

Latest Developments

• Turkey Mediates Ethiopia-Somalia Agreement: Turkey announced on December 11 that it mediated what President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called an “historic agreement” between Ethiopia and Somalia, ending a nearly decade-long rivalry between the two African neighbors. The agreement states that it would grant Ethiopia “reliable, safe and sustainable” access to the sea under Somali sovereignty. Turkey has a military base in Somalia and backed Ethiopia’s current president during the civil war.
• Tensions Between Ethiopia and Somalia: Tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia peaked in January when Ethiopia reportedly reached an agreement with the breakaway republic of Somaliland to lease a coastline for a port and military base in exchange for diplomatic recognition. Although Ethiopia did not confirm the deal, Somalia’s government protested that the arrangement was a violation of its sovereignty. Egypt, embroiled in its own dispute with Ethiopia over Nile resources, supported Somalia.
• Egypt’s Military Support to Somalia: In August, Egypt reportedly sent 10,000 troops and two military planes carrying weapons to Somalia as part of its planned deployment to a new peacekeeping mission that was outlined in a 2024 security pact between the two countries. Egypt and Somalia grew closer to one another after both countries distanced themselves from neighboring Ethiopia. Tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa are high over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) located on the Ethiopian section of the Nile River near its border with Sudan. Since the start of the dam’s construction in 2011, Egypt has viewed it as a direct threat to its water supply, as it is said to have a negative impact on the flow of the Nile into Egypt. Despite multiple rounds of negotiations, including a U.S.-brokered effort in 2019, the parties have failed to reach a lasting agreement.

FDD Expert Response

“Turkey has long been interested in projecting itself as a growing and influential power, not exclusively in the Middle East but more so on the African continent. It has been involved in major initiatives in various sub-Saharan African states, providing military, and law enforcement training. Turkey has long been involved in Somalia, and by helping to broker this deal with Ethiopia, Ankara has ensured a more permanent presence in Somalia.” — Sinan Ciddi, Non-Resident Senior Fellow

“By mediating this agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia, Turkey has dealt a blow to Egypt’s influence in the region as well as in its dispute with Ethiopia over access to the Nile River. With its leverage disappearing overnight, Egypt must recalibrate its strategy. The United States now has an opportunity to reassert its presence in the region by mediating between Egypt and Ethiopia.” — Mariam Wahba, Research Analyst

FDD Background and Analysis

“Erdogan Gets His ‘Leader of the Muslim World’ Moment,” by Steven Cook and Sinan Ciddi

“Egypt Deploys Troops, Weapons in Somalia, Raising Tensions in the Horn of Africa,” FDD Flash Brief

“Egypt and Ethiopia Tussle at UN Security Council as Nile Dam Tensions Escalate,” FDD Flash Brief

“Egypt Delivers Second Weapons Shipment to Somalia This Month,” FDD Flash Brief