‘We Will Go Deeper’: Israel Warns Lebanon of Consequences Should Ceasefire With Hezbollah Collapse

Latest Developments

• Ceasefire in Jeopardy: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel would “act with strength and go deeper” if the ceasefire agreed with Hezbollah on November 26 collapses. In a message to the authorities in Beirut, Katz added that “there will no longer be any exemptions for the State of Lebanon.” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar previously noted that Hezbollah operatives had returned to areas south of the Litani River, which the Iran-backed terrorist organization has been instructed to evacuate, maintaining its military infrastructure in the area. Saar stated Hezbollah’s “mere presence south of the Litani is the most fundamental violation, they must move north!”

• Israel Retaliates Against Hezbollah’s Violation: The IDF launched a wave of airstrikes on Lebanon on December 2 after Hezbollah launched two mortars at the Israeli position near Har Dov near the Syrian border for the first time since the ceasefire took effect. In a statement, the IDF said, “fighter jets struck Hezbollah operatives and dozens of rocket launchers” and vowed to “continue operating wherever necessary.”

• U.S. Guarantees to Israel in Question: U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein has expressed concerns regarding Israeli operations in Lebanon, particularly the return of Israeli drones to Beirut’s airspace. The U.S. letter to Israel regarding the IDF’s freedom of action permits overflights over Lebanon for intelligence gathering and reconnaissance.

FDD Expert Response

“It is Lebanon’s primary responsibility to restrain Hezbollah. However, Lebanon has proved, over decades, that it is unwilling or unable to do so. The ceasefire deal’s fatal flaw — one that will lead to Hezbollah’s resurgence — is to rely on Lebanon to counter the group. Only Israeli military action has proven a credible deterrent to Hezbollah’s growth, and Israel must therefore continue aggressively pursuing the group.” — David Daoud, FDD Senior Fellow

“Whether it’s subtle or overt, messaging is a key component of conflict between Israel and its foes. IDF strikes post-ceasefire serve as a forceful reminder to Hezbollah that what Israel tolerated before October 7, 2023, is now a part of the past. Armed with newfound leverage from its success in the war, Israel is now taking a more assertive approach to countering Hezbollah’s malign activities in Lebanon and beyond.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

“Israel must respond decisively to any threat to its security. With Syria once again in turmoil, Israel must remain vigilant, particularly regarding Iran’s efforts to arm Hezbollah and the potential influx of Iranian-backed proxies on its borders.” — Ahmad Sharawi, FDD Research Analyst

FDD Background and Analysis

“Will Lebanon’s Ceasefire Gambit Bring a More Sustainable Peace?” By Ahmad Sharawi

“Hochstein’s Lebanon Deal Guarantees Another Israel-Hezbollah War for Future Generations,” by David Daoud and Ahmad Sharawi

“Designed to be Permanent’: Israel Agrees to Ceasefire Agreement With Hezbollah,” FDD Flash Brief