Tehran Backs Ceasefire Talks in Lebanon as Israeli Airstrikes Pound Beirut

Latest Developments

• Hezbollah Stronghold Under Sustained Fire: The IDF launched four separate waves of airstrikes on Hezbollah’s terrorist stronghold in Dahiyeh on November 15. The strikes targeted “terrorist headquarters, weapons warehouses, and other terrorist infrastructure” in the southern Beirut suburb. The strikes continued November 16, marking the fifth consecutive day of the Israeli offensive.

• Significant Damage to Hezbollah: On November 12, the IDF announced that it had destroyed the majority of Hezbollah’s weapons manufacturing and storage facilities in Beirut. The IDF said most of these underground sites were located under civilian locations, including a large weapons manufacturing facility hidden underneath five residential buildings.

• Iran Give its Blessing to Lebanon to Secure a Ceasefire: A senior Iranian official said on November 15 that the Islamic Republic “backs any decision taken by Lebanon in talks to secure a ceasefire with Israel.” The statement comes as Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen said that ceasefire negotiations are closer than they’ve been since Hezbollah commenced attacking Israel one day after Hamas’s brutal terrorist attack on October 7, 2023.

FDD Expert Response

“The late Hassan Nasrallah stated that he regretted the kidnapping of IDF soldiers in northern Israel, which sparked the 2006 Second Lebanon War. Hezbollah’s patron in Tehran and what remains of the group’s leadership must have similar misgivings about entering a needless conflict with Israel for the sake of saving Hamas and its ilk in Gaza. Given the extensive damage to Hezbollah’s infrastructure and leadership — with minimal payoff for their sacrifices — a ceasefire to allow time to recoup and rebuild may be the most prudent course of action for Iran’s main proxy in the region.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

“We should be cautious about trusting Iran’s calls for a ceasefire in Lebanon, as the Islamic Republic is primarily focused on ensuring the survival of its key proxy in the country following the significant setbacks it has faced from Israel in recent months. Moreover, if the Lebanese side refuses to restrict Israel’s freedom of action within their territory under the terms of any potential ceasefire, the United States and Israel must treat this as a non-negotiable condition.” — Ahmad Sharawi, Research Analyst

FDD Background and Analysis

“‘Most Dahiyeh Arms Sites Dismantled’: Israel Guts Hezbollah’s Bastion,” FDD Flash Brief

“Israel Demolishes Massive Hezbollah Underground Bunker in Southern Lebanon,” FDD Flash Brief

“Analysis: Naim Qassem commemorates 40 days since Hassan Nasrallah’s death,” by David Daoud “The Road to the Third Lebanon War,” by David Daoud and Ahmad Sharawi

“The Road to the Third Lebanon War,” by David Daoud and Ahmad Sharawi