Iran Is Waiting for a President Harris

Excerpt

Why hasn’t Iran retaliated against Israel for the July 31 killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran? The Biden administration wants to believe that it has intimidated the Islamic Republic into better behavior—that the successful American-led effort to intercept 300 Iranian missiles and drones fired at Israel in April depressed and deterred Supreme Leader Ali Khameini. The real answer may be that Iran is playing a longer game and showing restraint to advance its nuclear ambitions.

Fear of U.S. military power has always been the primary brake on the clerical regime. That fear has been fading where it matters most: Tehran’s nuclear program has rapidly advanced in the past four years. Iran’s proxies, when not ignored, have been ineffectually countered—Yemen’s Houthis so far have the upper hand in their conflict with the U.S. Navy in the Red Sea. With relatively crude Iranian-supplied missiles, the Houthis continue to curtail shipping through the Suez Canal despite American and European efforts to protect the sea lane. And a Kamala Harris presidency would surely compound the errors of her predecessor.

Mr. Gerecht is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.