Iran Could Declare Itself Nuclear Weapons State by Year’s End, Top U.S. Lawmaker Says

Latest Developments

Iran could “declare itself a nuclear weapon state by the end of the year,” Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, stated on August 18. The “flexibility and freedom that [Iran’s leaders have] had under the Biden administration has given them the ability to both try to influence our elections, actively try to undertake a plot to assassinate Donald Trump, and to continue their nuclear weapons and their nuclear enrichment programs,” Turner said. He argued as well that the Trump administration’s campaign of maximum pressure on Iran — had it remained in place under President Biden — would have prevented such a development.

Expert Analysis

“The U.S. intelligence community can no longer assert that Iran is not conducting nuclear-weapons activities, yet Washington’s Iran policy remains adrift. Lawmakers are rightly worried that the regime may exploit this policy failure and the disarray of the U.S. election season to sprint to nuclear weapons.” — Andrea Stricker, FDD Research Fellow and Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program

“The Biden administration must finally acknowledge that its Iran policy has failed: Tehran is closer than ever to developing nuclear weapons. By contrast, Iran curbed its nuclear activities under President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign. Washington must return to a policy that works.” — Tzvi Kahn, FDD Research Fellow and Senior Editor

New Weaponization Intelligence

Axios reported on June 18 that the United States and Israel collected intelligence indicating that Iranian scientists at civilian research institutes were carrying out work on nuclear “weaponization” — the process of fabricating an atomic device that integrates weapons-grade fuel with specialized components, explosives, and a triggering mechanism. The work reportedly involved limited computer modeling and metallurgy experiments that could hasten Iran’s production of nuclear weapons.

An August 9 Wall Street Journal story quoted a U.S. official who assessed that this research “could shrink the knowledge gap Tehran faces in mastering the ability to build a weapon.” However, a spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) also told the Journal, “Iran doesn’t have an active military nuclear program.”

Iran Closer Than Ever to Nuclear Weapons

The Islamic Republic’s so-called breakout time — that is, the amount of time needed to enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear device — currently remains around seven days. In four months, Tehran could have enough uranium for 13 weapons. The United States and Israel estimate that Iran would need another year, if not longer, to weaponize the uranium, though the Institute for Science and International Security believes Iran would require less than six months.

Iran claims that its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, but its current nuclear activities have no civilian rationale. Tehran continues to enrich uranium to 60-percent purity, putting it only days away from 90 percent, which is weapons-grade. In a recent moment of candor, Ali Akbar Salehi, the former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said publicly that Tehran had crossed “all thresholds of nuclear science and technology” and has all the equipment it needs to make nuclear weapons.

Related Analysis

“U.S. Intelligence Assessment Drops Claim That Iran ‘Not Currently Undertaking’ Nuclear Weapons Development,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iran: The Next Nuclear Weapons State?,” by Andrea Stricker

“What to Know About Iran’s Nuclear Program,” by Andrea Stricker and Anthony Ruggiero