U.S. Increases Force Posture in the Middle East Amid Iranian Threats

Latest Developments

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to expedite its transit to the U.S. Central Command region on August 11 as the United States and Israel readied for a potential Iranian attack. In a call with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Austin described the increased U.S. force posture as a means of “reinforcing” the United States’ commitment to defend Israel. The readout of the call highlighted that the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is “equipped with F-35C fighters” and reported that Austin had also ordered the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to the region. It is unusual to announce the location of guided missile submarines, but the Pentagon also did so in November with the goal of preventing a wider regional war after the October 7 terrorist attack.

The Lincoln Carrier Strike Group was originally ordered to deploy to the Middle East from the Pacific on August 2 to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group, which had been operating in the region since July 12. The move came as part of a larger increase of U.S. forces in the Middle East to “mitigate the possibility of regional escalation by Iran or Iran’s partners and proxies,” including additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers, destroyers, and a fighter squadron. While the Lincoln was originally ordered to replace the Roosevelt, Austin said on Sunday that the carrier group will be “adding to the capabilities already provided by the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group,” suggesting that both carriers could potentially remain in the region for some time.

Expert Analysis

“Due diligence requires planners to assume that the aggression from Iran and its proxies could be bigger than we saw in April, so it’s heartening to see the administration taking steps to prepare. If Iran and its terror proxies launch attacks in the coming days on U.S. military forces in the region and on Israel, the Biden administration should not only work with Israel and other partners to defeat the attacks but also use the opportunity to impose serious costs on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies. A successful defense of our troops and of Israel is not enough. We must also shift the cost-benefit analysis of our enemies when they are considering such attacks in the future.” — Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power

“These significant increases in U.S. force posture in the Middle East are important not only for defending Israel but also for protecting U.S. forces in harm’s way throughout the Middle East. American servicemembers in Iraq and Syria are already under attack by Iranian proxies, and they could come under increasingly intense fire in the coming days, making the flow of American combat power into the region even more critical.” — Cameron McMillan, FDD Research Analyst

Israel Approves Battle Plans for Imminent Attack

Israel placed its military at its “peak alert” level on August 12 after observing Iran and Hezbollah making preparations to carry out an attack, The Wall Street Journal reported. “We are in the days of vigilance and readiness, the threats from Tehran and Beirut may materialize and it is important to explain to everyone that readiness, preparedness and vigilance are not synonyms for fear and panic,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said. Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi approved battle plans after a meeting with top military, intelligence, and security officials.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on August 12 that Washington agrees with Israel’s assessment that a major attack can happen this week. “We share the same concerns and expectations that our Israeli counterparts have with respect to potential timing here. Could be this week,” Kirby said. “We have to be prepared for what could be a significant set of attacks.”

Threats Against U.S. Forces in the Middle East

U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria may also be subject to increased attacks by Iranian proxies. Leaders within the Islamic Resistance in Iraq — a coalition of Iranian-backed militias — have threatened to mount additional attacks on U.S. positions, which may occur in coordination with a large attack against Israel by Iran and its proxies. Last week, several American servicemembers were injured during a rocket attack against al-Asad Air Base in Iraq on August 5, followed by a drone attack on a U.S. position in Syria on August 9. Since October, Iranian proxies have attacked U.S. forces over 170 times.

Related Analysis

“Blinken Warns of Imminent Attack on Israel,”  FDD Flash Brief

“What We Can Learn from Iran’s Attack on Israel,” by Bradley Bowman, Ryan Brobst, Mike Daum

“American Forces Under Attack by Iran and its Proxies,” by Cameron McMillan and Bradley Bowman