August 5, 2024 | Flash Brief
Blinken Warns of Imminent Attack on Israel
August 5, 2024 | Flash Brief
Blinken Warns of Imminent Attack on Israel
Latest Developments
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on August 4 that Iran and its Lebanese terrorist proxy Hezbollah could attack Israel within 24-48 hours, Axios reported. Blinken was speaking on a conference call with G7 foreign ministers that was intended to convey the need to apply pressure on Iran, Hezbollah, and Israel to show maximum restraint in the wake of the July 31 assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Blinken added that the United States did not have a clear picture of how Iran’s response might look and that it could come as a coordinated attack between Iran and Hezbollah, unlike the unprecedented Iranian attack on Israel on April 13, when the Islamic Republic and its regional proxies launched nearly 350 missile and drones at Israel.
During the call, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, the G7’s chair, read a statement on behalf of the group expressing concern that the escalation involving Iran, Hezbollah, and Israel could lead to a regional crisis. “We call on the parties concerned to desist from any initiative that could hinder the path of dialogue and moderation and encourage a new escalation,” Tajani said.
Expert Analysis
“Clearly, the Islamic Republic of Iran is not deterred — not by the United States nor by Israel at the moment. Calls for de-escalation are, in fact, sending a signal to Tehran that it can land a blow and the West will rush to restrain Israel. A combination of embarrassment from Israel’s success in the operation against Haniyeh, as well as an evolving long-range strike capability in the hands of the regime and its proxy forces, is making the matter of another military strike on Israel a question of when and not if.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD Senior Fellow
“Khamenei escalates because he believes he can do so without paying a price — a hypothesis he tested in April. He is not acting to defend Iran or Iranians but to defend a ring of fire around Israel, his weapon of mass distraction. The conversation now should focus on the consequences Iran will face for any further escalation.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor
Iranian Proxy’s Deadly Attack on Israel Escalated Tensions
After Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel, and Israel’s retaliatory bombing of an air-defense radar site in Isfahan on April 19, direct conflict with Iran subsided for several months. On July 27, Hezbollah launched a missile into Israel that exploded in a soccer field in the northern Israeli Druze town of Majdal Shams, killing 12 children and injuring dozens of others. Israel responded by eliminating Hezbollah’s most senior military commander, Fuad Shukr — who was responsible for the Majdal Shams attack as well numerous other terrorist incidents worldwide since the 1980s — in a drone strike on Beirut. On July 31, Haniyeh, Hamas’s Qatar-based political chief, was killed when a bomb exploded at an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) guest house in Tehran, where he stayed while attending the inauguration of Iran’s new president. Haniyeh’s death came hours after he met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and is believed to have been conducted by Israel, though the Israeli government did not officially take responsibility.
Iran Vows to Retaliate
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said on August 5 that Iran would “definitely take serious deterrent action [against Israel] with power and decisiveness.” This followed a statement from Khamenei on July 31, in which he said, “We consider it our duty to take vengeance” for Haniyeh’s death.
Prior to Iran’s attack on Israel in April, the Biden administration also embarked on a pressure campaign on Iran that, in the end, proved unsuccessful. On April 12, President Joe Biden answered “Don’t” when asked by reporters about his message to Iran concerning a further attack on Israel following the targeted elimination of IRGC Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus.
Related Analysis
“Israel Braces for Possible Iranian Proxy Attack From West Bank,” FDD Flash Brief
“The Islamic Republic prepares to avenge Ismail Haniyeh,” by Behnam Ben Taleblu
“Iran Counts on U.S. Weakness to Check Israeli Strength,” by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh