Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: August

The Biden administration demonstrated a growing willingness to counter Chinese aggression. During the NATO summit in Washington, NATO leaders, at the White House’s urging, labeled China as “the decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine. NATO also announced four new projects with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand centered on enhancing cooperation on Ukraine, artificial intelligence, disinformation, and cybersecurity. These moves signal a growing transatlantic consensus on China even as the Biden administration has fallen short in sanctioning Chinese entities supporting Russia’s war machine.

Further demonstrating its hardening stance, the White House is reportedly considering imposing the most severe trade restriction available, known as the foreign direct product rule, on China’s semiconductor industry. This measure would prevent foreign entities from selling certain products to Chinese semiconductor companies if those products contain any American inputs. Combined with existing export restrictions, this proposed measure, if enacted, would significantly set back China’s bid to dominate cutting-edge sectors, including artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

Meanwhile, Beijing and Minsk launched combined military exercises near Poland’s border with Belarus, the newest member of the Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Additionally, China and Russia conducted their first-ever bomber patrol mission near Alaska, signaling their strengthening military ties. Beijing also suspended nuclear arms control talks with the United States, citing American weapons sales to Taiwan as a major issue. These and other actions make clear that China is not backing down. The critical question is whether the Biden administration will maintain its resolve or falter under pressure.

In July, the Office of the National Cyber Director and the Office of Management and Budget released a joint memo instructing federal agencies to increase their cyber investments in the fiscal year 2026 annual budget request. Aligning with the National Cybersecurity Strategy and the new national security memorandum on critical infrastructure security, the memo aims to address repeated failures by numerous federal agencies to properly resource their sector risk management efforts with the private sector.

Meanwhile, as part of the NATO summit, Washington and its allies discussed combatting cyber threats and disinformation. The alliance announced a new cyber defense center and committed to enhancing cyber situational awareness. The summit’s communique also condemned Russian and Chinese malicious cyber activity, noting that China poses a systemic security challenge. Elsewhere, the United States and its Five Eyes allies, alongside Germany, South Korea, and Japan, issued a joint warning about Beijing’s cyberattacks.

The U.S. Agency for International Development released a new digital policy plan. While the policy itself is standard fare, it largely fails to acknowledge the administration’s new international cyber strategy and the critical role of the State Department’s Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy in helping partners deploy safe, secure, and resilient digital technologies.

Finally, in mid-July, the country suffered one of its largest technology outages after a faulty CrowdStrike software update crashed millions of Windows systems around the world, including those used by airlines, hospitals, and banks. While not a cyberattack, the incident demonstrated the cyber vulnerability of the critical infrastructure that supports the U.S. economy and national security.

Washington hosted the annual NATO summit on July 9-11, commemorating the alliance’s 75th anniversary. Leaders representing NATO’s 32 members issued a Summit Declaration stating unambiguously that “Russia remains the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security.” But members also expressed concerns regarding the activities and growing cooperation of China, Iran, and North Korea and their support for Putin’s “war of aggression against Ukraine.” Reflecting these concerns and a realization that developments in the Indo-Pacific directly impact Euro-Atlantic security, the leaders of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea were invited to attend the summit.

Alliance members noted that “more than two-thirds of Allies have fulfilled their commitment” to spend at least 2 percent of annual GDP on defense. Twenty-three of 32 NATO member countries are expected to meet that minimum in 2024, according to alliance estimates. That compares to only three in 2014 and six in 2021. Croatia, Portugal, Italy, Canada, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, and Spain are still falling short. The trick for American leaders is to encourage these allies to honor their defense spending commitments without doing so in a manner that undermines the alliance and its vital deterrence of additional Russian aggression.

Regardless, the defense expenditures of America’s NATO allies grew by 18 percent this year, the largest increase in decades. That is helping to enable the deployment of additional “combat-ready forces on NATO’s Eastern Flank” that can respond more effectively to threats. Those forces are bolstered by improved defense plans that include the alliance’s newest members, Finland and Sweden.

President Biden hosted allied leaders in Washington on July 9-11 for the annual NATO summit. Notable outcomes included a U.S. announcement of plans for eventual missile deployments in Germany that will enhance U.S. precision-strike capabilities in the theater. NATO members also pledged to expand defense-industrial capacity and cooperation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the summit and met with Biden. Prior to the gathering, some allies had pushed for the summit declaration to say Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” to NATO membership, while Washington and Berlin argued for vaguer language saying Ukraine has a “bridge” to accession. The declaration ultimately said both while remaining noncommittal. The allies also pledged to provide at least €40 billion in security assistance “within the next year.”

During the summit, Washington and four European allies formalized prior promises to supply Kyiv with additional strategic and tactical air defense systems. This included a second U.S.-provided Patriot battery and more interceptors. Ukraine sorely needs these systems to defend its critical infrastructure, counter Russian Su-34s dropping glide bombs, and down Russian reconnaissance drones that enable precision strikes. In total, the administration pledged $4.275 billion in military aid for Ukraine in July. On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that Ukraine had taken delivery of its first F-16 fighter aircraft.

On August 1, the United States, a handful of its allies, and Russia conducted a prisoner swap in which Moscow traded 16 individuals, including American hostages and Russian dissidents, in exchange for eight Russian spies and criminals held in the West

The Biden administration has finally subscribed to a “day after” solution in Gaza that neither includes Hamas in government nor relies on Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas for a two-state solution. Emirati, American, and Israeli officials met in Abu Dhabi in mid-July to discuss how to govern and reconstruct the Gaza Strip after the war. If the plan pans out, an Emirati-supported Palestinian government will replace Qatar-backed Hamas, which has ruled Gaza for the past 17 years.

Under the plan, the UAE would fund Gaza’s reconstruction and join an interim multinational force to ensure security once the Israel Defense Forces withdraw from the strip. The multinational force would receive a formal invitation from the PA, which Israel would permit to play a role in post-war governance in Gaza.

The plan has two prerequisites. First, Israel must defeat Hamas. Second, Abbas must appoint Salam Fayyad as prime minister. Between 2007 and 2013, under Fayyad’s premiership, the West Bank saw its longest-ever stretch of peace and economic growth. His reforms came to be known as “Fayyadism.” Since Fayyad will serve as the prime minister in Ramallah and oversee the government in Gaza, the two territories will be unified under his administration.

Abu Dhabi hopes that Palestinian success in government can move the Palestinians closer to a state within the two-state solution, with Israeli guarantees of supporting such an effort. Israeli facilitation of the Emirati effort toward a Palestinian state will allow the Saudis to normalize ties with the Jewish state.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin embarked on extended trips to the Indo-Pacific, underscoring Washington’s prioritization of the region amidst competing global crises. In Japan, they announced plans to reconstitute U.S. Forces Japan as a joint force headquarters subordinate to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Austin also participated in the inaugural trilateral ministerial meeting with South Korea’s and Japan’s defense ministers, solidifying a key U.S. initiative to bolster regional security cooperation.

Further demonstrating resolve, the U.S.-led Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC), the world’s largest international naval exercise, entered its second phase. This year’s RIMPAC, involving 29 countries, featured the sinking of a decommissioned ship believed to represent one of China’s large amphibious vessels or aircraft carriers. The U.S. Navy also unveiled the AIM-174B, a new air-to-air missile whose especially long range will be useful in a potential conflict with China. RIMPAC coincided with combined Chinese-Russian drills near China’s southern coast, underscoring their deepening military ties and prompting questions about the adequacy of U.S. policies to counter these increasingly aligned foes.

Further complicating matters are growing tensions between Beijing and its neighbors. This month, Chinese forces seized a Taiwanese fishing boat for allegedly operating in Chinese territorial waters. Beijing also warned it would “never accept” a permanent Philippine presence at the Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed reef in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone but claimed by China. Thus far, U.S. warnings to Beijing have gone unheeded. Still unclear is what specific steps the administration is prepared to pursue to re-establish regional deterrence before China escalates further.

The Biden administration on July 12 signed a joint statement of commitment to the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), calling the agency “important and indispensable” and boosting a conference raising funds for UNRWA. The administration’s support for UNRWA comes after Congress prohibited U.S. funding for the agency through 2025 amid mounting evidence that it continues to provide material support to Hamas. While the U.S.-endorsed statement claimed “no organization can replace or substitute UNRWA’s capacity,” there are, in fact, turn-key alternatives available.

Meanwhile, the State Department did not dispute the merits of an inherently antisemitic International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion that claimed the presence of Israeli Jews in parts of Jerusalem and the West Bank violates international law. Instead, the department said it is “concerned that the breadth of the court’s opinion will complicate efforts to resolve the conflict.” Despite knowing that the ICJ had a pending request from the UN General Assembly on this matter, the administration in February 2024 reversed U.S. policy and declared Israeli settlements in disputed territory to be “illegitimate” under international law.

Finally, on July 26, the U.S. ambassador to the UN Human Rights Council rightfully condemned a UN special rapporteur for comparing the Israeli prime minister to Hitler. Notably, however, the administration has legitimized that UN official by being a member of the Human Rights Council and not offering a resolution to terminate her mandate, end the council’s commission of inquiry into Israel, or remove the council’s standing agenda item on Israel.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on July 19 claimed that Tehran was “probably one or two weeks” away from being able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon. Although experts had previously assessed that Iran’s nuclear breakout timeline has dwindled to mere weeks or even less, Blinken’s comments constitute the shortest timeline ever offered publicly by the U.S. government. Blinken, however, failed to reflect on the role the Biden administration’s own policies — issuing sanctions waivers, not enforcing oil sanctions, and never triggering the snapback of UN sanctions — played in this development.

On July 9, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines reported that “Iranian government actors have sought to opportunistically take advantage of ongoing protests regarding the war in Gaza,” with Tehran-linked actors having “even provided financial support to protesters.” The administration has not publicly clarified which actors in Iran and the United States have provided or received Iranian support.

Washington has also not commented on the veracity of a recent statement by the chief of Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency claiming that Tehran is now selling nuclear products abroad. Nor has the administration provided details on a reported Iranian assassination plot to kill former President Donald Trump.

The administration has, however, successfully extradited and begun trying a 53-year-old Iranian man accused of conspiracy to violate U.S. export controls through transshipment of controlled technologies that have military applications. The administration also denounced the regime’s coercion of Iran’s Jewish minority into voting in the recent Iranian presidential election, which was neither free nor fair.

A U.S. official said on July 10 that the United States would resume shipments of 500-pound bombs to Israel. They had been on hold because they were grouped with 2,000-pound bombs whose delivery the Biden administration has blocked. President Biden said he is not providing the larger bombs because they cannot be used in Gaza “without causing great human tragedy and damage.” Limiting Israel’s access to key weapons will undermine the Jewish state’s security and deterrence as it faces Iranian encirclement.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a speech before a joint session of Congress on July 25, days after Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Netanyahu spent a week in the United States, meeting with Biden, Harris, and former President Donald Trump.

In her meeting with Bibi, Harris said it is time to end the war in Gaza, criticized the human toll the war has taken on Palestinians, and stressed her support for a ceasefire. Nearby, at Washington’s Union Station, protesters tore down and burned the American flag and littered the area with pro-Hamas graffiti. Harris decried the “unpatriotic protestors and dangerous hate-fueled rhetoric.”

Meanwhile, the administration tried to temper Jerusalem’s response to a July 27 Hezbollah attack that killed 12 children playing soccer in the town of Majdal Shams. The administration is trying to prevent Israel-Hezbollah tensions from escalating into all-out war. But by pressuring Israel into inaction, Washington invites continued Hezbollah aggression and escalation.

On July 27, the American, South Korean, and Japanese defense chiefs held the first-ever trilateral ministerial meeting in Japan. They signed a trilateral security agreement that “institutionalizes trilateral security cooperation among defense authorities, including senior-level policy consultations, information sharing, trilateral exercises, and defense exchange cooperation, to contribute to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, in the Indo-Pacific region, and beyond.” The pact comes amid increased regional concern about Chinese aggression, closer Russian-North Korean defense cooperation, and continued North Korean progress in its nuclear and missile programs.

On July 22, South Korea’s defense minister warned that Pyongyang is nearing completion of so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons — small atomic devices that it could use on the battlefield. North Korea’s development of such weapons raises concern that Pyongyang could lower its threshold for nuclear use.

The United States continues to push back against North Korean malign activities targeting America and assisting Pyongyang’s illicit weapons programs. A Kansas City grand jury indicted a North Korean military intelligence operative on cyber-hacking and money laundering charges affecting 17 entities, including NASA and U.S. military bases, hospitals, and healthcare providers. The perpetrator remains at large in North Korea. In addition, the Treasury Department sanctioned a China-based network of 11 individuals and entities that support North Korea’s ballistic missile and space programs. However, the United States has consistently failed to target the Chinese financial institutions that facilitate payments for this activity.

The Maduro regime’s brazen attempt to steal Venezuela’s presidential election on July 28 highlights the failure of the Biden administration’s attempt to appease the regime in the hope it would guarantee free and fair elections in exchange for sanctions relief.

The Biden administration had all the evidence at hand to see that the Maduro regime would never honor its commitments under last year’s Barbados agreement. Not only did the Maduro regime bar leading opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado from running. It also further rigged the election by systematically harassing opposition figures in the lead-up to the election; prevented impartial, international observers from monitoring the electoral process; and disrupted voting at multiple sites across the country.

Meanwhile, the Maduro regime has continued to stoke geopolitical tension in the region, beating the drums of war on the Venezuela-Guyana border. Caracas, in cooperation with Cuba and Nicaragua, is also facilitating a surge of migration toward the U.S. border, with little pushback from Washington.

The White House also remains hesitant to confront Iran’s malign activity in Latin America. On July 18, Argentina marked 30 years since the Iranian-orchestrated terror bombing of the AMIA, the Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Five years ago, Washington sent a large delegation headed by then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to attend the 25th anniversary commemorations. Yet this year, the Biden administration dispatched a more junior delegation, comprising U.S. Special Envoy on Antisemitism Deborah Lipstadt alongside a small group of Jewish members of Congress, with no cabinet-level representation.

Israel and Hezbollah are now even closer to all-out war following a July 27 Hezbollah rocket strike that killed at least 12 children and wounded dozens more in the town of Majdal Shams. The next day, Israel said it conducted airstrikes against seven Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and Israel’s security cabinet authorized the Netanyahu government to launch a further response in the “manner and timing” of its choosing. On Tuesday, Israel said it killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut.

The tragedy has intensified the Biden administration’s concern that the 10-month low-level fighting between Israel and Hezbollah could get out of hand. For months, the administration has opted to deal with the crisis as a subsidiary of the war in Gaza, hoping an Israel-Hamas ceasefire would also lead to calm on Israel’s northern border. In doing so, Washington effectively caved to Hezbollah’s insistence that it would halt its attacks only once Israel had ended its campaign in Gaza. The administration has pressured Jerusalem to exercise restraint vis-à-vis Hezbollah, emboldening the terror group. Meanwhile, U.S. efforts to broker a diplomatic resolution on the Israeli-Lebanese frontier have gained little traction, leaving roughly 100,000 Israelis displaced due to the violence.

Now the White House has vowed to reinvigorate those diplomatic efforts. But Israel’s patience may have run out. Moreover, Washington continues to repeat its mistake of taking a gentle approach toward Lebanon’s government, which has done nothing to restrain Hezbollah, while forcefully and publicly restraining the Israelis. This will only signal to the terror group that it can continue attacking with impunity.

At preparatory meetings in Geneva ahead of the 2026 Review Conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), China circulated a document calling on nuclear weapon states to commit to a policy of “no-first-use” of nuclear weapons. Beijing called on states to do so as part of implementing the NPT’s Article VI, under which states parties agree to “pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament.” However, China recently dropped out of arms control talks with the United States, and the U.S. Defense Department (DoD) estimates Beijing is expanding its nuclear arsenal at an unprecedented rate, raising doubts about its NPT Article VI commitment.

Moreover, the DOD’s 2022 Nuclear Posture Review found that, contrary to official proclamations, China could pursue “nuclear coercion and limited nuclear first use” to achieve strategic objectives. In Geneva, U.S. State Department official Jim Warden noted that Russia and China “are expanding and diversifying their nuclear weapons arsenals — showing little or no interest in arms control.” The two countries are cooperating with North Korea and Iran “in ways that run counter to peace and stability and exacerbate regional tensions,” Warden added.

As a confidence-building gesture ahead of the Geneva meetings, the United States published the latest figures for 2023 on its nuclear stockpile. Washington claimed a total stockpile of 3,748 strategic and non-strategic warheads, a decrease of 20 weapons since the release of 2022 figures.

Al-Qaeda continues to use “Afghanistan as a permissive haven under the Taliban,” the United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team reported on July 10. According to the report, al-Qaeda is now operating training camps in two additional Afghan provinces: Kandahar and Takhar. These facilities are in addition to those located in 10 other provinces that the Monitoring Team identified over the past year.

The Monitoring Team also reported that the Afghan Taliban does not “conceive of TTP [Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan] as a terrorist group: the bonds are close, and the debt owed to TTP significant.” Both the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda are actively supporting the TTP. The Afghan Taliban provides safe haven and “weapons, especially night vision capability,” while al-Qaeda trains TTP personnel at camps in Afghanistan and participates in TTP attacks in Pakistan. Despite the Taliban’s support for al-Qaeda, TTP, and a host of terror groups, Washington’s official policy is not to support armed resistance to the Taliban.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military is on schedule to complete its withdrawal from the drone base in Agadez, Niger, in early August, the head of U.S. Africa Command estimated. In better news, Côte d’Ivoire and the United States signed an agreement to establish a military base in Odienné that could assume some of the responsivities of the lost bases in Niger.

Finally, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned three Islamic State financial facilitators who operate as part of a coordinated network that moves money between Islamic State franchises across Africa.

In a sign of crumbling Western resolve to hold the Syrian regime accountable for its atrocities, Italy became the first G7 nation to announce it would return an ambassador to Damascus. Rome, along with seven other European governments, also sent a letter to Brussels calling for a reconsideration of EU policy toward Syria, hinting the bloc should follow the Arab League’s precedent of rehabilitating Bashar al-Assad. The missive poses a challenge to Britain, France, and Germany, which have insisted until now that protection of human rights is a pre-requisite for re-engagement with the Assad regime. So far, the Biden administration has not commented publicly on the Italian decision or attendant letter. The White House has quietly promoted Arab reconciliation with Assad over the past three years and has blocked congressional efforts to intensify U.S. pressure on Damascus. If the administration remains passive while European resolve crumbles, Assad may score a major diplomatic victory without making any concessions.

In more bad news, U.S. troops in Syria once again became the target of multiple rocket attacks by Iran-backed militias on July 25-27. After more than 160 attacks from October through January, U.S. airstrikes hit several militia leaders, leading Tehran’s proxies to back down. On the same day that the latest militia attacks began, a Russian fighter jet flew within meters of a U.S. drone, then fired flares that damaged the American craft. Russian jets also harassed U.S. drones over Syria in the first week of July, prompting the U.S. Air Force to condemn this “unsafe and unprofessional” conduct.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended NATO’s annual summit on July 9-11, held in Washington, DC. During the gathering, Erdogan chastised alliance members for their continued support of Israel’s war effort against Hamas. Ahead of the summit, Erdogan called on Israel to “abandon its intention to spread conflicts to the region” and for “Western countries, particularly the United States [to] withdraw their support for Israel.”

In his speech at the end of the summit, the Turkish leader demanded that alliance members end their cooperation with Syrian Kurdish forces that Ankara views as terrorists. “It is not possible for us to accept the crooked relationship that some of our allies have established especially with the PYD/YPG, the extension of the terrorist organization PKK in Syria,” Erdogan stated. The YPG form the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the U.S.-led coalition’s local partner in the fight against the Islamic State.

Ankara has stepped up efforts to normalize ties with Syria’s Assad regime, hoping to secure a one-to-one meeting between Erdogan and Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad. Ankara may hope that patching up Turkish-Syrian ties, which deteriorated after Ankara backed Syrian rebels during the Syrian civil war, would enable a joint Syrian-Turkish military offensive against the SDF. Such an offensive would endanger ongoing coalition operations against the Islamic State.