Iran Touts More Than $15 Billion of Oil Revenue

Latest Developments

Iran announced on July 29 that its oil exports exceeded $15 billion between March and July 2024. Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency reported that Mohammed Rezvanifar, the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), said the regime “exported $15.7 billion worth of oil in the first four months of the Iranian calendar (from March 21 to July 22, 2024),” as well as “$7.7 billion worth of the petrochemicals.” Rezvanifar said that most of the exports were destined for the United Arab Emirates, China, Turkey, Germany, and India.

The Biden administration’s lax enforcement of international oil sanctions has allowed Tehran to increase the export of illicit oil and petroleum products. Iran’s oil exports jumped to nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2024, compared to an average of 775,000 bpd during the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign. FDD estimates that Iran’s total oil revenue since the start of the Biden administration ranges from $81 billion to $90.7 billion. Tehran uses the profits from its oil to arm anti-Israel and anti-U.S. militias throughout the Middle East, which regularly target U.S. allies. 

Expert Analysis

“Under the Biden administration, which refuses to enforce the sanctions, Washington has lost its economic leverage, created by the maximum pressure campaign, over Tehran. The Biden administration has enriched the Islamist regime and enabled Khamenei to expand his oppression at home and aggression abroad.” — Saeed Ghasseminejad, FDD Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor

“The United States remains in an unacknowledged nuclear deal with Iran — allowing Tehran’s oil to flow and giving access to frozen funds all to keep Iran under the 90-percent enrichment threshold. But the deal works against U.S. interests every day by subsidizing the multi-front war against Israel while Iran still advances its nuclear weapons-related capabilities.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor

The Effects of Maximum Pressure

The Trump administration withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal — formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — in May 2018 and fully restored pre-JCPOA levels of sanctions six months later. In 2019, Trump terminated a waiver that allowed select nations to import low quantities of Iranian crude oil.

The policy caused Iran’s oil exports to drop from 2.9 million bpd in April 2019 to only 395,000 bpd the next month. From May 2019 to January 2021, Iran’s oil exports averaged 775,000 bpd. In the same period, Iran accumulated $25 billion in oil revenue. Trump’s maximum pressure campaign also led to a decline in non-oil exports, such as petrochemicals, natural gas, and industrial metals. According to the World Bank, Iran’s overall exports declined in 2019 and 2020 by 17.3 and 12.8 percent, respectively.

U.S. Sanctions Waiver Gives Iran Access to $10 Billion

From 2018 to 2023, the State Department issued temporary sanctions waivers that allowed Iraq to import electricity from Iran on the condition that all payments were kept in an escrow account in Baghdad, thereby denying Iran access to the revenue. The Biden administration changed that waiver in July 2023 to allow Iraq to transfer $10 billion to Iran and to deposit future payments into Iranian bank accounts in Oman. The new policy also allowed Iran to convert the money from Iraqi dinars to euros. Iran could then process euro-based transactions for imports and debt payments out of the accounts in Oman. The Biden administration extended the waiver in November 2023 and again in March 2024.

The Biden administration claims that the waiver is just for Iraq to physically import electricity. However, the waiver unlocks billions of dollars for Iran to use as budget support. Accessing $10 billion or more out of Oman frees up to $10 billion or more in Iran that Tehran can use for other purposes, including terrorism, missiles, and nuclear capabilities.

Related Analysis

“Iran’s Oil Exports Continue to Rise,” by Saeed Ghasseminejad

“Bipartisan Coalitions Urge Biden to Resume Enforcement of Iran Oil Sanctions,” by Saeed Ghasseminejad

“How to Curb Tehran’s Oil Exports,” by Saeed Ghasseminejad

“White House Defends $10 Billion Sanctions Waiver to Iran Following Attack,” FDD Flash Brief