July 19, 2024 | Flash Brief

Iran ‘One or Two Weeks Away’ From Producing Deadly Nuclear Fissile Material, Blinken Warns

July 19, 2024 | Flash Brief

Iran ‘One or Two Weeks Away’ From Producing Deadly Nuclear Fissile Material, Blinken Warns

Latest Developments

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on July 19 that Iran was days away from producing fissile material sufficient for a nuclear weapon. Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, the top U.S. diplomat said: “Instead of being at least a year away from having the breakout capacity of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon, [Iran] is now probably one or two weeks away from doing that.” However, Blinken added, Iran had not yet produced a weapon capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, assessing that achieving this outcome would require more time.

Acknowledging that Iran is unlikely to change its belligerent stance despite the election of Masoud Pezekshian, who has been widely portrayed as a regime “moderate,” as the regime’s new president, Blinken underlined that the United States still preferred a diplomatic route to prevent Iran from weaponizing its nuclear activities. “When this administration came in, we tried to pursue again, nuclear diplomacy with Iran, because if you could at least take one problem off the board, which is Iran potentially with a nuclear weapon, that’s inherently a good thing,” Blinken said. He stressed that “what we need to see, if Iran is serious about engaging, is actually pulling back on the work that it’s been doing on this program.”

Expert Analysis

“Secretary Blinken failed to mention that the majority of Iran’s nuclear expansion has occurred during his administration amid its failure to enforce sanctions against Tehran. Washington has stood aside as Iran reaches the nuclear threshold and will have no one else to blame if the regime steps over it.” ­­ Andrea Stricker, FDD Research Fellow and Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program

“The administration’s desire for diplomacy and de-escalation at any cost with Iran has not only undermined its deterrence, as well as its ability to close a deal that meaningfully addresses Iran’s nuclear program, but also ended up underwriting an expansion of Iran’s nuclear capacity that has brought us to this point. Iran’s constant escalation of its enriched uranium stockpiles at various levels of purity continues to pay dividends for the Tehran regime, leaving the secretary of state sounding like there’s a nuclear fait accompli around the corner.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD Senior Fellow

U.S. Warned Iran Over Weaponization

Blinken’s comments came just days after the United States was understood to have warned Iran over intelligence that the regime is working on applications relevant to nuclear weapons. Tehran reportedly explained the activities and denied the regime was seeking nuclear weapons. Axios reported in June that U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies obtained information during March “that showed Iranian scientists were engaging in computer modeling and metallurgical research” relevant to nuclear explosive development. The finding may impact an assertion the U.S. intelligence community has made annually since 2019 that Tehran “is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.” In recent years, current and former Iranian officials have openly touted the regime’s ability to construct nuclear weapons.

“Washington Warns Iran Over Alleged Nuclear Weapons Work,” FDD Flash Brief

2040: The Year Iran Predicts Israel Will Be Destroyed. Now is the Time to Prepare,” by Mark Dubowitz and Jacob Nagel

Defying U.S. Law, Biden Administration Fails to Report on Iran’s Nuclear Program,” FDD Flash Brief

Issues:

Issues:

Biodefense Iran Iran Nuclear Iran Politics and Economy Iran Sanctions Military and Political Power Nonproliferation

Topics:

Topics:

Foundation for Defense of Democracies Iran Israel Mark Dubowitz Nuclear program of Iran Tehran United States