Hezbollah Deputy Leader Hedges on Gaza-For-Lebanon Tradeoff

Latest Developments​

Hezbollah’s deputy leader on July 2 hedged on the question of whether the Iran-backed terrorist organization would stop attacking Israel if the war in Gaza war winds down without a formal truce. Speaking to the Associated Press, Naim Kassem said that if “there is a ceasefire in Gaza, we will stop without any discussion … If the war stops, this [Hezbollah’s] military support will no longer exist.” However, he emphasized that if “what happens in Gaza is a mix between ceasefire and no ceasefire, war and no war, we can’t answer [how we would react] now, because we don’t know its shape, its results, its impacts.” He continued: “Israel can decide what it wants — limited war, total war, partial war … But it should expect that our response and our resistance will not be within a ceiling and rules of engagement set by Israel. … If Israel wages the war, it means it doesn’t control its extent or who enters into it.”

Expert Analysis​

“Hezbollah is hurting, as is the Lebanese state that the Iran-backed terrorist organization is holding hostage. Entire communities in the south of the country have been emptied of residents and heavily shelled as a result of Israel’s response to Hezbollah attacks. Despite Kassem’s sang-froid, he and the rest of the Hezbollah leadership may welcome a respite, no matter how it is formally defined.” — Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO

“Hezbollah is the crown jewel in Iran’s proxy arsenal, strategically positioned to deter Israeli strikes on the Iranian nuclear program. Tehran would not risk its cherished asset to save Hamas, its Gaza-based junior proxy. But tit-for-tat strikes can easily escalate out of control, causing a full-scale war that neither side wants.” — David May, FDD Research Manager and Senior Research Analyst

Related Analysis

“The Looming War So Gruesome It Would Make Gaza Look Like Child’s Play,” by Mark Dubowitz

“Arab League Denies Softening Stance on Hezbollah Terror Label,” by Seth J. Frantzman

“War Between Israel and Hezbollah Drawing Closer, U.S. Says,” FDD Flash Brief