Intelligence Assessment of More Deaths Among Israeli Hostages Fuels Concern

Latest Developments

Relatives of the remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas terrorists in Gaza are increasingly fearful that their loved ones may no longer be alive, The Wall Street Journal reported on June 20. “What is happening now is that the families have the opposite feeling,” said Gili Roman, whose sister Yarden was freed during the November 2023 ceasefire deal, but who has another family member, Carmel Gat, among the remaining hostages. “It’s about who will get a phone call saying the body of your family member has been found or he has been declared dead.” 

According to a U.S. intelligence estimate based in part on information supplied by Israel, 50 hostages remain alive. A further 66 are believed to have died — 25 more than was assumed in earlier estimates. In total, about 116 of the 251 hostages seized by Palestinian terrorists during the October 7 atrocities remain captive in Gaza — both dead and alive. This count includes eight Americans, three of whom have already been declared dead by Israel.

On June 8, Israeli troops rescued four hostages — Noa Argamani, 25, Almog Meir Jan, 21, Andrey Kozlov, 27, and Shlomi Ziv, 40 — captured by Hamas terrorists on October 7. Relatives and health professionals have expressed concern that the successful rescue operation has caused Hamas to harshen the conditions of imprisonment of the remaining hostages.

Expert Analysis

“If the assessment is accurate, it intensifies pressure on Israel to act swiftly and locate the hostages. While Israel has offered Palestinian factions multiple opportunities to accept ceasefires — only to be rebuffed — it is Hamas and its allies who orchestrated the kidnapping and are accountable for the hostages’ lives. By refusing to accept the multiple ceasefire offers, Hamas is only prolonging the crisis and exacting a higher human toll on Israeli hostages, as well as on Palestinian civilians in Gaza.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal

“The information leak seems designed to undermine the Israeli government’s will to fight, but it might be healthier to turn the mirror back toward the White House and ask: What have you done today to squeeze Hamas and every one of its sponsors to bring American hostages home?” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor

Strained Ceasefire Talks Delay Hostages’ Release

Efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza are currently based on the three-phase plan outlined by President Joe Biden on May 31. The plan would entail Hamas’s release of all hostages in exchange for a permanent end of hostilities in Gaza. On June 11, Hamas proposed revisions that “changed all of the main and most meaningful parameters” of the deal, an anonymous Israeli official told Reuters. Qatari mediators continue to call for “compromises” between Israel and Hamas, following months of negotiations facilitated by Qatar, the United States, and Egypt.

Additionally, Hamas has claimed that it is unable to confirm the exact number of hostages, further complicating ceasefire negotiations. On June 14, senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan told CNN that “no one has an idea” of how many hostages are still alive.

Related Analysis

“Blinken in Israel Amid Talk of Side Deal on American Hostages Held in Gaza,” FDD Flash Brief

“IDF Liberates Four Hostages Abducted By Hamas On October 7,” FDD Flash Brief

“One-Third of Hostages in Gaza Believed Dead,” FDD Flash Brief

“Israeli Amendment Condemning Hamas and Demanding Release of Hostages Passed by World Health Organization Assembly,” FDD Flash Brief