Prepare for an Iranian Escalation

Excerpt

Iran has patiently built up its “axis of resistance” over 20 years. This alliance among Iran, the Syrian regime, Hezbollah, Hamas and other radical Sunni and Shiite Arab militias is an expression of the Islamic Republic’s vibrant anti-Western ethos. It’s also a means by which the clerical regime can overcome the enormous damage the Syrian civil war has inflicted on its standing among Sunni Muslims. Despite the theocracy’s crucial role in driving Islamic sectarianism, its aspirations to be a vanguard for all Muslims still define Iran’s self-image.

Tehran can’t sit back and watch Israel obliterate Hamas. Fortunately for the clerical regime, its Palestinian proxy in Gaza will be hard to destroy. The farther the Israel Defense Forces advance, the more pressure will mount on the Islamic Republic to expand the conflict. Since the theocracy isn’t suicidal, it will try to calibrate its aggression. Tehran has never been willing to escalate with Jerusalem into direct confrontation. That fear ought to guide both Israeli and American actions.

Mr. Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA, is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.