New Report Details Options for the U.S. to Shape Palestinian Succession after Mahmoud Abbas

Washington, DC – The Foundation for Defense of Democracies today released a new report warning of a succession crisis in the Palestinian Authority and called upon the White House to take immediate steps to ensure stability in the West Bank in the post-Mahmoud Abbas era.

The report, written by research analyst Grant Rumley, observes that the rule of Mahmoud Abbas—the head of the Palestinian Authority, Palestine Liberation Organization, and Fatah—may not last much longer. Abbas, now 80 years old and slowing down, has consolidated executive power while refusing to name a successor. Rumley notes that without US guidance, succession could become chaotic.

Rumley’s monograph, “The Race to Replace Mahmoud Abbas: Understanding and Shaping Palestinian Succession,” identifies the top Palestinian figures looking replace Abbas after he vacates his office.  Some of the figures predictably hail from the West Bank’s political elite (such as Saeb Erekat, Hanan Ashrawi and Nabil Shaath), while others have been in political exile (such as Mohammed Dahlan) or lack political pedigree (such as Jibril Rajoub and Mohammed Shtayyeh).

Rumley warns that the process of succession is likely to circumvent Palestinian Basic Law. This is due, in part, to the ongoing internecine conflict between Hamas and Fatah in the Palestinian Territories. However, it is also a byproduct of the autocratic system that Abbas has forged over his last decade in power.

With an eye toward reform, Rumley charts a course forward for Washington policy makers. The U.S., the report says, should focus its efforts on a two-step process to prevent a succession crisis and bolster the pro-democratic movements within Palestinian society. The Obama Administration has valued “Palestinian quiet over Palestinian democracy,” as Rumley writes, but he notes that this is insufficient. “Washington would do well to head off the succession crisis before it erupts,” he warns.

Rumley joined FDD after researching internal Palestinian politics in Jerusalem from 2012-2014. He received an M.A. in Islamic and Middle East studies from The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a B.A. in International Relations with minors in Arabic and Muslim Studies from Michigan State University.

Download the full report here.

About the Foundation for Defense of Democracies:

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) is a non-profit, non-partisan 501(c)3 policy institute focusing on foreign policy and national security. Founded in 2001, FDD combines policy research, democracy and counterterrorism education, strategic communications and investigative journalism in support of its mission to promote pluralism, defend democratic values and fight the ideologies that drive terrorism. Visit our website at www.defenddemocracy.org and connect with us on Twitter, Facebook and YouTube.

About FDD’s Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance (CSIF):

FDD’s Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance is a project designed to illuminate the critical intersection between illicit finance and national security. The Center relies on regional and sanctions expertise within FDD, including a core cadre of financial, economic, and area experts and analysts, to promote a greater understanding of illicit financing and economic threats. The Center also designs creative and effective strategies, doctrines, and uses of financial and economic power to attack and protect against priority threats and vulnerabilities. More information on CSIF is available at http://www.defenddemocracy.org/csif.

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