The Paris Attack: A Possible Yemen Connection

“Tell the media that this is al-Qaeda in the Yemen,” gunmen in today’s deadly attack in Paris allegedly told witnesses before launching their assault. Although the ties of Yemen’s al-Qaeda branch to the attack remain unconfirmed, the prospect of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) setting its sights on French targets is in line with the group’s stated goals in recent years.

A 2013 analysis conducted by a private U.S. intelligence firm indicated that France ranked second to the United States among the group’s top Western targets. AQAP’s anti-French propaganda escalated markedly in early 2013 when France launched a military operation in Mali to combat Islamic extremists who had taken control of the northern half of the country. Regularly comparing the French intervention to the “Zionist occupation of Palestine,” AQAP statements have claimed that fighting the French in Mali is “a duty for every able Muslim.”

Moreover, past AQAP propaganda directly threatened Charlie Hebdo and its editor-in-chief, Stephane Charbonnier – one of four cartoonists killed in today’s attack. A 2013 issue of AQAP’s English-language Inspire magazine, for example, featured Charbonnier on a poster bearing the words “Wanted Dead or Alive For Crimes Against Islam.” In 2012, al-Qaeda spokesman Adam Gadahn specifically cited Charlie Hebdo in an audio message, asking, “Where are the lions of Islam to retaliate for the Prophet?”

Al-Qaeda in Yemen has a long history of targeting French interests inside the country. Notably, in 2002 al-Qaeda operatives bombed the French tanker Limburg headed for an oil terminal in the Gulf of Aden. In 2012 alone, AQAP fighters opened fire at employees of French energy giant Total, kidnapped a French employee of the Red Cross, and bombed a pipeline transporting gas to a facility partially operated by Total. Moreover, France and several other Western countries closed their embassies in Yemen during the summer of 2013 due to intelligence indicating an imminent terrorist threat.

In fact, AQAP targeted French targets in Yemen as recently as last month. On December 18, AQAP launched two Katyusha rockets at one of Total’s gas terminals. A few days later, AQAP released a statement promising more attacks and warning Yemenis working for the French firm to stay away from their jobs.

It is too early to tell if the terrorists who conducted today’s attack in Paris were members of al-Qaeda. If the investigation does lead back to Yemen, however, it would be yet another indicator of AQAP’s expanding capabilities and reach.

Oren Adaki is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter: @orenadaki.