January 9, 2014 | Quoted by Jamie Dettmer, The Daily Beast
Syria’s Al Qaeda Gang Wars
Five days of fierce rebel-on-rebel infighting in insurgent-controlled towns in northern Syria, involving al Qaeda groups taking opposing sides, has prompted an intense debate between jihadist religious scholars about who is in the right—but the signs are that al Qaeda’s top leaders may be content to see rival affiliates fight each other as a way to re-assert their own authority over a wayward jihadist leader who has been defying them.
The internecine warfare that erupted over the weekend between rebel groups stems from long-simmering rivalry between brigades affiliated to the Western-backed Free Syrian Army and al Qaeda affiliate the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), which in recent months has conducted a campaign of targeted abductions and assassinations of leading moderate rebels.
In December, ISIS, an affiliate analysts estimate numbers up to 15,000 mainly foreign jihadists, overstepped the mark as far as moderate rebels were concerned when its fighters assassinated one of their commanders, Ammar al-Wawi, prompting outrage in insurgent circles.
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Al-Nusra’s siding against ISIS in the infighting “is a clear message to al-Baghdadi,” argues Thomas Joscelyn, an al Qaeda watcher for the U.S.-based think tank, the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
“The message is, ‘Don’t think you will rise to be the regional emir.’ Al Qaeda proper is trying to make sure al-Baghdadi does not overstep his bounds.”
Joscelyn says al Qaeda’s top leadership is determined not to go down the same path as it did in Iraq when it lost control of al-Baghdadi’s mentor. “They don’t want al-Baghdadi and the guys who are the most psychopathic within the jihadist sphere to control events in Syria and damage their cause.”
Does that mean a formal split is underway? Joscelyn argues not, maintaining that judging by its modus operandi elsewhere—in sub-Saharan Africa and in Somalia—al Qaeda’s top leadership “wants to maintain influence in different factions in different ways and they want to have different brands to market to Gulf donors.”