Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Now Pollak, 41, is one of tens of thousands flying back to vote in Tuesday’s elections, which many Israelis see as the most consequential in the country’s history. […] Unlike many other Western countries, Israel requires voters to cast ballots in person, with exceptions for diplomats, emissaries and some soldiers abroad. – Wall Street Journal

The AI-generated campaign ad shows former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, the leading challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the country’s elections on Tuesday, running with open arms through a field abloom in flowers. – Washington Post

The Israeli military began a sweeping crackdown in the West Bank city of Hebron overnight on Saturday, evicting hundreds of families and demolishing buildings a day after Palestinian gunmen killed two Israeli soldiers in the occupied territory. – New York Times

Gadi Eisenkot doesn’t speak like a politician. He runs through his plans matter-of-factly, like a commander spelling out a mission to his troops. – New York Times

In the remote Negev Desert town of Dimona, long a bastion of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, disenchanted voters are going door-to-door campaigning for his top rival, hoping to bring down the veteran prime minister in Israel’s election on Tuesday. – Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces re-election this week, is drawing criticism from economists and political rivals ​after suggesting Israel could use cryptocurrency to help shield its economy from potential international sanctions. – Reuters

Israel said Sunday it would close all land crossing with the West Bank on election day, after Palestinian gunmen killed two Israeli soldiers in the territory. – Agence France-Presse

Israel is concerned that operatives acting on behalf of the Syrian regime intend to renew attacks against the Druze population in the Sweida province of southern Syria, a security source told Walla on Sunday morning. – Jerusalem Post

Israel and Greece conducted a joint naval exercise in the Mediterranean Sea this week, practicing a series of operational scenarios, including sinking an enemy vessel with missile fire, Walla learned on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post

Iraq believes that Israel was behind recent strikes on two sites where Iran-backed militias had stockpiled “Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defense systems” sourced from Tehran, sources told London-based Arabic international newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post

The Lebanese people want “full diplomatic ties” with Israel and to enjoy the benefits of tourism and trade with their neighboring state, but both Hezbollah and a government unwilling to confront the Iran-backed group are disregarding this wish, the co-chair of the American Mideast Coalition for Democracy (AMCD), John Hajjar, told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly met secretly with the most senior Israeli on Qatar’s payroll months after the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, invasion, during the thick of the Gaza war. – Times of Israel

Hamas reportedly told a UN official earlier this month that it was prepared to carry out an October 7-style attack in Israel, the West Bank or abroad, following the IDF’s expansion past the Gaza ceasefire line and the Palestinian Authority’s cancellation of legislative elections in November. – Times of Israel

Editorial: From the course of the war, there’s evidence for that. But under Mr. Netanyahu and his further-right partners, the opposition says, Israel will lose all Western support and bring on the disasters both sides seek to prevent. Better to change horses after 19 years of Mr. Netanyahu as PM, they say, and not alienate the West. One thing is certain: Israelis won’t be voting on normal pocketbook issues, the way other democracies do. The International Monetary Fund’s latest growth forecast for Israel is 4.5% in 2026, the highest of the OECD’s 38 advanced economies. But every election in Israel is fundamentally about the Jewish state’s survival in a very bad neighborhood. – Wall Street Journal

Marc Champion writes: Having Arab ministers in positions of power, able to negotiate key demands for their community, is the only path toward some kind of reconciliation and trust. It happened before, when Ra’am joined a coalition government to oust Netanyahu the last time he briefly lost office, in 2019, and proved widely accepted. It should happen again. Both camps need to marginalize their racist extremes. “If Eisenkot can just offer hope, instead of all this hate and incitement, he can change things,” said Dahamsha. For good or ill, he said, “it’s all about the leaders.” Tomorrow, Israelis will have to choose. – Bloomberg

Russia and Ukraine

This summer, Russia’s Geographical Society leased an ice-strengthened vessel for an expedition to map Russia’s historic presence on Norway’s Arctic archipelago of Svalbard. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine’s military Starlink system was working normally again on Saturday morning, the country’s defense minister said, raising hopes that the 10-day disruption of the country’s vital satellite internet service by Elon Musk’s SpaceX was ending. – Wall Street Journal

In a rare legal fight, a former Russian energy industry insider has sued sanctioned oil traders who, according to Western officials, have become the most important middlemen enabling Moscow to sell its oil and fund its war in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

First lady Melania Trump brokered a limited ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine for humanitarian relief in the besieged and occupied southern Ukrainian town of Oleshky, the White House said Friday, in an unusual direct intervention by a person who rarely gets involved in foreign policy. – Washington Post

On the same day President Trump told reporters that Russia “has been fine on Ukraine,” President Volodymyr Zelensky shared a photo taken moments after a Russian drone struck a Ukrainian playground. – New York Times

Several industrial facilities were damaged in a drone attack ​on the Russian city of Togliatti on ‌Saturday, local authorities said, while Ukraine said it had struck a major petrochemical plant there. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on ​Friday that peace negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the United States had agreed to meet at a technical level in the ‌first half of November in Abu Dhabi, adding that he hoped a meeting of the countries’ leaders would follow. – Reuters

Russia and Ukraine have exchanged 270 people each in the latest prisoner-of-war swap, following ​talks with US negotiators earlier this week. – Reuters

Russia and the US have both ‌denied that Russia had released American national Stephen Hubbard from prison in exchange for the recent release of a Russian war blogger detained in Montenegro whom the US has accused of election interference. – Reuters

A Russian strike on Ukraine’s southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia injured four ​people overnight, regional governor Mykhailo Semikin said ‌on Telegram on Monday. Two more were injured in Russian strikes on the Chernihiv region, Ukraine’s emergency service ​said on the messaging app. – Reuters

Ukrainian officials have disputed claims by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk that the country’s military violated Starlink’s terms of service by using the civilian satellite internet network for offensive drone strikes. – Associated Press

Editorial: To finance Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction, Europe will need more joint borrowing or another look at how Russia’s frozen central bank assets can be exploited. The stakes extend beyond Ukraine. Every ally relying on US weapons and technology must now ask whether that dependence could be used against it. Adversaries may conclude that America’s friends, and interests, can be traded for diesel. In Athens, Rubio warned the West against losing “the fire of passion, strength, courage, pride” — what the Greeks called thumos. He’d find plenty in Ukraine; it’s Washington that’s wavering. – Bloomberg

Nikita Shah and Justin Sherman write: By comparison, in a China-Taiwan conflict scenario, the United States would surely not strike a similar deal to build a data center with China. China is considered both a strategic competitor to the United States and a national security threat. A deal over a data center would legitimize China’s aggression, alienate allies, and signal a lack of U.S. strategic resolve. It would also invite a slew of national security risks from a state with a history of targeting U.S. critical sectors. So, why should the U.S.-Russia proposal be acceptable for U.S. interests? Data centers are a vital national security asset, not a bargaining chip to be used in negotiations with a long-term adversary of the United States. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Saudi Arabia

For days, drones surveilled a desert base in the far reaches of Yemen where Saudi Arabian officers prepared to train newly enlisted local forces as the fight against the Iran-backed Houthi militia rages. – Wall Street Journal

The authorities in Saudi Arabia reopened an international airport in the capital on Sunday after a spate of deadly attacks, even as the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen vowed to keep striking the facility. – New York Times

Saudi Arabia plans to store crude oil at Singapore’s Jurong Rock Caverns ‌from the second half of 2027 to strengthen supply security in the region, energy ministers from both countries said on Monday. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia appears to be expanding its ballistic missile factory to build larger solid-fuel missiles that could fly farther or carry heavier payloads, according to two US researchers who analyzed ​more than a year of commercial satellite images. – Reuters

The fact that Saudi Arabia was among the signatories of a joint statement declaring Israel as “the fundamental source of instability in the region and beyond” is not a sign that Riyadh has abandoned all future interest in joining the Abraham Accords, Gulf analyst Dr. Ahmed Alkhuzaie told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Max Hastings writes: The Gulf states have shown themselves incapable, with or without the Americans, of seeing off Iran and its Houthi clients militarily. They may be reduced instead to holding out their wallets. All of which would be very bad indeed for regional and global stability. Saudi Arabia is one of the big losers from Trump’s Iran war. Its gross domestic product is expected to fall this year as its oil activity has dropped sharply. Its dreams of becoming a regional hub have crashed into a harsh truth. And the corollary of all this is a hemorrhaging of moral, political and strategic authority for its US ally. It seems unlikely that anyone in the current White House will have any idea of how to get it back. – Bloomberg

Middle East & North Africa

Oil prices rose Friday, closing out the week with solid gains as the market remains on edge about the possibility of the Middle East conflict escalating with renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and further attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. – Wall Street Journal

Jordanian security forces have arrested three suspects in connection with an attack on a church in ​the US-allied country that killed nine people, state television reported on Monday. – Reuters

Ras Al Khaimah authorities said on Saturday that all beaches ​in the emirate would be closed until further notice, a day after ‌an offshore oil leak prompted beach closures in neighbouring Umm Al Quwain and Sharjah. – Reuters

Algeria’s parliament approved a resolution on Sunday authorising the deployment of army units to Niger, a parliamentary statement said, in what would mark ​Algeria’s first foreign troop deployment since it sent forces to support Egypt in the ‌1973 war. – Reuters

Algeria has instructed urea producers to stop exporting the fertiliser to ​France in an intensification of trade curbs that have followed a diplomatic rift between Algeria and its former colonial ruler, according to diplomats and industry sources. – Reuters

Thousands rallied in Istanbul and Ankara on Saturday against what they described as growing pressure on journalists in Turkey, including arrests, media shutdowns and the appointment of state administrators. – Agence France-Presse

An Istanbul court on Friday opened the trial of 35 Israelis, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, over the Israeli Navy’s interception of the Gaza-bound Sumud flotilla. – Jerusalem Post

China

China’s Communist ‌Party began a four-day meeting of its highest-ranking members on Monday targeting concrete measures for “full and rigorous party self-governance”, as President Xi Jinping seeks to reinforce his authority and enforce ideological uniformity. – Reuters

The Chinese commerce ministry urged the United States on Saturday ​to stop expanding restrictions on American ‌investments in China, saying a proposed rule on sensitive technologies would disrupt trade ties. – Reuters

China’s ruling Communist Party announced key personnel changes in six provinces on Saturday, including two new provincial party chiefs and ​six officials positioned to become governors, before it holds a closed-door conclave in Beijing ‌from October 26 to 29. – Reuters

China on Friday released a document detailing its official ​position on “space governance” that reaffirms its opposition to ‌the weaponisation of outer space and to a space arms race. – Reuters

The European Union should focus on dialogue with Beijing to curb ‌imports of products such as chemicals and machinery to rein in a damaging trade deficit with China, EU ministers said on Friday, as the bloc considers import quotas for plastics. – Reuters

China’s Commerce Ministry urged the United States ‌on Friday to “respect the facts” and immediately end what it called discriminatory measures against Chinese research institutions. – Reuters

Ruth Pollard writes: Tokyo needs to utilize groupings such as the Quad that includes the US, Japan, India, and Australia, as well as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, to strengthen systems in the Indo-Pacific and expand cable-laying capacity to help reduce China’s dominance. Asean leaders are due to gather in Manila next month, where a Quad leaders’ meeting is also planned. Undersea cable security should be high on their agenda. There is, however, an irony in efforts to curb Beijing’s influence over critical cable routes: Much of that power is instead concentrating in the hands of a small group of American technology giants. What could possibly go wrong? – Bloomberg

Asia

Typhoon Champi disrupted life in Taiwan on Friday as it brought strong winds and surging waves to the island, causing at least one death and dozens of injuries, and forcing officials to cancel flights and close schools and businesses. – New York Times

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the national election on November 7 would ‌be decided on economic issues, as early voting opened on Monday in a race that polls suggest will be closely contested. – Reuters

Indonesia on Monday introduced more measures to address stock market manipulation, including adding independent parties ​to a committee determining stocks with concentrated ownership structures, after MSCI said the country could be demoted due to ‌concerns about opaque trading. – Reuters

Two Philippine Air Force trainer aircraft crashed during a training flight ​at an air base south of ‌the capital Manila, killing four pilots, the military said on Saturday. – Reuters

Thailand welcomes US engagement with Myanmar and expects discussions at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ November summit in Manila on how ​to proceed with the member barred since the 2021 coup, Foreign Minister ‌Sihasak Phuangketkeow told Reuters on Friday. – Reuters

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has named a new head of the scandal-hit Department of Public Works and Highways, as his administration contends with lingering effects of corruption allegations that have slowed economic growth. – Bloomberg

Sam Harshbarger writes: The Azerbaijani government has recently insisted that more of the weapons that it buys be built in Azerbaijan, and that they will continue to fortify their country against alleged foreign interference. It remains to be seen how Turkey will respond to Azerbaijan’s decision to issue international arrest warrants for seven Turkish nationals, among them several Islamist commentators. The Turkish Constitution forbids the extradition of citizens outside of its obligations to the International Criminal Court. This this may well lead to Baku unwinding Turkish cultural and religious influence and promoting secular “Azerbaijanism” as an alternative to Islamic conservatism and pan-Turkism. However events unfold, expect more bickering and frustration between these brotherly Turkic states. – Foreign Policy

Africa

Deo Kasereka said he could pinpoint the moment he was infected with Ebola. As a catechist at the Notre Dame of Maternal Charity church in Mongbwalu, Democratic Republic of Congo, it was his job to comfort the sick, he said. – New York Times

Ugandan citizens returning to the country with a history of travel to Democratic Republic of ​Congo will be quarantined for 21 days, Health Minister Chris Baryomunsi said on Sunday as Uganda ‌tightened Ebola precautions. – Reuters

Senegal’s Pastef party, which holds a large majority in the National Assembly, said it would not pass the government’s ​revised budget, reinforcing doubts over how quickly the country ‌can push ahead with its debt restructuring. – Reuters

Gunmen killed at ​least 40 people in ‌an attack on a village in Nigeria’s northeastern Taraba state on ​Friday afternoon, Amnesty International ​said. – Reuters

President Bola Tinubu formally launched his campaign for a second term on Saturday ‌in the northern city of Kaduna, where he sought to convince voters that painful economic reforms are beginning to pay off despite a lingering cost-of-living crisis. – Reuters

Amnesty International on Friday urged Sierra Leone to halt the expected repatriation of three people deported ​from the United States, saying they could face ‌serious human rights violations if returned to their home countries elsewhere in West Africa. – Reuters

Tanzania’s jailed opposition leader Tundu Lissu will begin a hunger strike Monday to protest prison authorities’ alleged refusal to allow court-ordered private consultations with his lawyers, his lawyer said Saturday. – Associated Press

An official in Tigray’s new federal-backed administration urged rebel fighters to lay down their weapons Friday, hours after a rebel commander called for continued resistance despite losing the northern Ethiopian region’s capital. – Associated Press

Richard Poplak writes: Tolerating America’s (or Russia’s, or the United Arab Emirates’) finance-bro foreign policy will not work. Leaning on the noblesse oblige of development aid will not work. Only new solutions will be fit for the purpose. As it stands, the global moment of rupture is being defined in Africa by African elites designing the future in presidential palaces and high-end hotels. But they’ll find, as their forebears did, that this new map is not the territory. It’s a trap. The only way out is for Africans to disassemble it together. – New York Times

North America

As President Trump stares down what could be a bruising midterm election in November for the Republican Party amid his record-low approval ratings, his administration has identified a familiar target to place some blame: Canada. – New York Times

Hoping for a win before the midterm elections, the Trump administration is increasing pressure on Mexico to expand its cooperation against cartels, with an eye toward joint operations with the United States, according to Mexican and U.S. officials. – New York Times

Doctors examined burned remains found Saturday to determine if they were the bodies of four Salvadoran soldiers who disappeared after being deployed to Haiti on an international mission to crack down on gangs, according to four people close to the mission. – New York Times

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said ​on Friday his team had raised issues over LGBTQ+ ‌rights during meetings held with the Turkish government a day earlier, adding that Ottawa’s engagement in partnerships did not mean approval of policies. – Reuters

US Secretary of State Marco ​Rubio called on those seeking change in Cuba to partner with ‌the CIA as President Donald Trump said Washington would “take care of Cuba” after dealing with Iran and send in the top US diplomat to finish the deal. – Reuters

Britain will not join the Canada-led Defence Security and Resilience Bank, according to a ​source familiar with the matter, but the two countries said ‌they would develop a framework for cooperation between their respective defence-funding initiatives. – Reuters

The opposition Conservative Party won an election in the Canadian province of British Columbia for the first time ​in nearly 100 years, promising to ramp up ‌liquefied natural gas production, provisional results showed on Sunday. – Reuters

President Donald Trump at a Sunday political rally predicted a trade dispute with Canada would ​be resolved “soon,” without providing specifics. – Reuters

Mark Carney said he’s concerned about the manipulation of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite system that has made it harder for Ukraine to defend itself, and suggested Elon Musk’s reported involvement shows why he’s focused on making Canada less dependent on any one country or technology. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

The Federal Bureau of Investigation is looking at potentially adding an economic espionage charge against Abdulrahman Alfozan, the former OpenAI engineer who faces wiretapping allegations that he bugged a restricted conference room, a law-enforcement official said. – Wall Street Journal

Greece’s parliament approved a bill on Friday that bans ​the use of social media ‌platforms for children under 15 amid growing concerns over their impact on the ​health and safety of minors. – Reuters

Japanese companies are moving to pay compensation to users following waves of cyberattacks that have disrupted internet services and ‌raised concerns about economic stability. – Reuters

Israel Police exposed a network of accounts on the social media platform X/Twitter suspected of trying to influence the outcome of the upcoming Knesset elections, the police announced on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Two senators say that revelations about online targeted advertising being used as a vector for spyware infections underscore the need for better security practices in the industry. – Cyberscoop

Editorial: But not every company, institution or country can afford access to the most powerful proprietary models. Open-weight alternatives give those with fewer resources a fighting chance to keep up. A foundational principle of the cybersecurity community is that security by obscurity is no security at all. Paradoxically, up until now, the scale and complexity of the internet helped conceal its countless vulnerabilities from attackers and defenders alike. The emergence of AI, by revealing flaws, has created an imperative to fix them. – Washington Post

Jamie Fly and Jennifer Brody write: Third, put safety first. Iranian authorities reportedly detained and killed Hesam Alaeddin, 40, after he was discovered using Starlink to bypass the internet blackout. Any effort to expand access must include safe distribution channels for terminals and technical protections against government surveillance. The future of space-based connectivity will be shaped by governments that want to either connect or control people. Iran’s leaders have told the world what they seek. Democracies should take them at their word and act accordingly. – Washington Post

Annie Chestnut Tutor writes: AI companies and data center developers must be honest, transparent, and fair—generous, even—to escape their villain trajectory. State and local leaders have an opportunity to respond to their constituents’ concerns and make favorable deals—ones that raise revenue for their jurisdictions and ensure that ratepayers are not suffering. Moratoriums on development and excessive demands stall, if not kill, negotiations. If data center developers have nowhere to go domestically, they will have to go abroad. It could have similar consequences on the US economy as offshoring in other industries, and it would be a shame after all the efforts to reshore manufacturing and other supply chains. Most certainly, it would relinquish data sovereignty. – The National Interest