Fdd's overnight brief

September 9, 2025

In The News

Israel

Israel’s military on Tuesday ordered Gaza City residents to evacuate ahead of a new offensive, after Israel warned it would step up its military attacks in the strip in a “mighty hurricane” if Hamas does not free the last hostages it holds. – Reuters

Israel struck in the vicinity of Syria’s central Homs city, the coastal city of Latakia, and the historic city of Palmyra, Syrian state-affiliated media said on Monday. – Reuters

Israel’s military said on Monday it had intercepted a drone launched from Yemen after sirens sounded near Eilat, a day after Yemen’s Houthis hit an airport close to the southern Israeli city with a drone. – Reuters

Israel has accepted a Gaza ceasefire proposal from U.S President Donald Trump, Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Monday. – Reuters

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Monday ratcheted up his criticism of Israel’s actions in the 23-month Israel-Hamas war, to which Israel responded by banning two left-wing Spanish ministers from the country. – Associated Press

The hostage deal framework recently crafted by US special envoy Steve Witkoff is unlikely to succeed, an Arab mediating source told The Times of Israel on Monday. – Times of Israel

Four soldiers were killed in a Hamas attack on the outskirts of Gaza City early Monday morning, the military announced later in the day. – Times of Israel 

Ahmed Charai writes: The question is not whether Hamas can be defeated; rather, it is whether Hamas can be defeated. It can. The question is whether the world has the courage to fight the deeper war: the war against the death-worshipping ideology that fuels Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Al Qaeda, ISIS, and every successor that waits in the shadows. – National Interest

Iran

South Korea on Monday finalized a draft U.N. Security Council resolution that would permanently lift sanctions on Iran – a move it is required to take as current president of the 15-member body – but a vote has not yet been scheduled, diplomats said. – Reuters

Time is running out in talks between the U.N. nuclear watchdog and Iran on how to fully resume inspections in the Islamic Republic, the watchdog’s chief Rafael Grossi said on Monday, adding that he hoped the discussions would conclude within days. – Reuters

A former Iranian defense ministry advisor confirmed on X that he had returned to Iraq after previously going missing in Egypt during a trip taken on his Iraqi passport, according to Middle Eastern media reports. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the two sides’ tank divisions looked much as they did during the Cold War. Now, Russia’s and Ukraine’s Soviet-era tanks rumble across the battlefield covered in anti-drone nets and spikes, dangling chains and unwieldy cages. – New York Times 

Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded on Monday an Order of Courage to Army General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of Russia’s armed forces and the overall commander of Russia’s war in Ukraine. – Reuters

For Russian wife killer Azamat Iskaliyev, the war was a one-way ticket out of jail. The 37-year-old had served less than a third of a nine-year murder sentence – for stabbing his spouse to death in his car in the summer of 2021 because she wanted a divorce – when he was freed and pardoned by Russia in return for fighting in Ukraine. – Reuters

Senior Ukrainian officials led 60 foreign diplomats on a tour of damaged government offices in the heart of Kyiv on Monday, a day after Russia’s largest aerial attack on Ukraine since its all-out invasion began more than three years ago. – Associated Press

A group which is involved in investigating Moscow’s war crimes in Ukraine has told Newsweek a plan by Russia to withdraw from a European treaty on torture was “profoundly disturbing.” – Newsweek

Russia continues to flex its naval power in the Pacific as one of its submarines armed with long-range nuclear missiles concluded a three-month deployment in the region. – Newsweek

Celeste A. Wallander writes: For Putin, the summit was never about pursuing peace in Ukraine. His aim all along has been to bend the international system to his will and to preserve his monopoly on power at home. Since his first incursions into Ukraine in 2014, Putin has played the long game. He has always believed that time is on his side. The Alaska summit bought him even more time—and gave him a stronger hand for achieving military victory. – Foreign Affairs

Turkey

Turkish opposition lawmakers piled tables and chairs at the entrance of an office at their party’s Istanbul headquarters on Monday to block police and prevent the replacement of a senior official whom a court ordered out last week. – Reuters

A Turkish court on Monday ordered the release of youth activist Enes Hocaogullari pending trial on charges including “inciting hatred”, in a case that has drawn sharp criticism from European institutions and rights groups. – Reuters

A 16-year-old has been arrested over the killing of two officers in a gun attack on a police station in the western Turkish city of Izmir on Monday, the interior minister said. – Reuters

Access to major social media and messaging platforms in Turkey has been restored a day after widespread restrictions were imposed, Netblocks, a global internet monitor, said on Monday. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

The Global Sumud Flotilla (GSF) for Gaza said on Tuesday that one of its main boats was struck by a drone at a port in Tunisia, though all six passengers and crew were safe. – Reuters

Cyprus has approached the United Arab Emirates for possible cooperation on an EU-financed subsea power cable linking Europe to the eastern Mediterranean region, it said on Monday, reaffirming its commitment to the project. – Reuters

India is likely to finalise the terms of reference for a proposed free trade agreement with Qatar in early October, a government source said on Monday, as it pushes to forge deeper global partnerships and offset the impact of U.S. tariffs. – Reuters

Israel launched airstrikes Monday on northeastern Lebanon, killing five people, including four Hezbollah members, according to officials. This comes as global pressure mounts to disarm the Lebanese militant group. – Associated Press

A ship likely cut cables in the Red Sea that disrupted internet access in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, experts said Tuesday, showing the lines’ vulnerability over a year after another incident severed them. – Associated Press

Hanin Ghaddar writes: Hezbollah cannot rebuild its military infrastructure without this political and financial infrastructure, so the election is a critical battleground for containing the group. Thus, in addition to sanctioning those who align with Hezbollah, empowering and protecting Shia political alternatives is vital to isolating the party and its weapons from the next government. This could include diplomatically supporting alternative factions and, most important, helping them connect with the non-Hezbollah Shia business community. If Lebanon fails to put forward such alternatives or set a firm, mutually acceptable timeline for all phases of the LAF disarmament effort, the most likely outcome is another war with Israel. – Washington Institute

Korean Peninsula

Hundreds of South Korean citizens detained in an immigration raid at a Hyundai Motor plant in Georgia are expected to return home on a voluntary basis and avoid deportation, Seoul’s Foreign Ministry said Monday. – Wall Street Journal

South Korea’s negotiations to finalise a U.S. trade deal are being held up due to foreign exchange issues and Seoul has asked Washington to help find a way to cap any market impact from a $350 billion investment package, a senior presidential official said on Tuesday. – Reuters

South Korea will send a chartered plane to Atlanta as early as Wednesday to bring back workers detained during a huge immigration raid last week on a car battery plant in the U.S. state of Georgia, a Korean Air spokesperson said on Tuesday. – Reuters

North Korea said Tuesday it had conducted the final ground test of a solid-fuel rocket engine for a long-range ballistic missile in its latest advancement toward having an arsenal that could viably threaten the continental United States. – Associated Press

China

China is on the verge of becoming a world-class submarine power, with new technology and a bigger, better fleet that is gaining on the U.S. and its allies—spurring a new undersea arms race in the Pacific. – Wall Street Journal

China has racked up a $60 billion trade surplus with Africa so far in 2025, nearly surpassing last year’s total, as Chinese companies redirect trade to the region while President Trump’s tariffs crimp the flow of goods into the United States. – New York Times 

China, Russia and Mongolia held their first joint border defence drills this week, the Chinese military said on Tuesday, underscoring closer security coordination among the three neighbours. – Reuters

China is ready to enhance strategic communication with North Korea, Chinese President Xi Jinping told North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in a congratulatory message over the 77th anniversary of the founding of North Korea, Chinese state media reported. – Reuters

Robert Gioia writes: For that to happen, though, the DFC will need to liberalize its loan restrictions to enable it to invest in the entirety of South America without a lengthy regulatory process. Currently, the DFC’s services are restricted to poorer developing nations of relatively low relevance. They can’t be, because China’s BRI has no corresponding restrictions. […] It will also need to align the agency better with national security priorities and harness it as a tool in the pursuit of strategic investments abroad. South America, meanwhile, seems like the best place to start. – National Interest

South Asia

Nepal’s government lifted a sweeping social-media ban late Monday after the days-old prohibition sparked clashes between protesters and police that left at least 19 people dead, according to two state-run news outlets. – Wall Street Journal

Indian lawmakers began voting to elect a new vice president on Tuesday, more than a month after the last incumbent resigned abruptly. – Reuters

Pakistan is spying on millions of its citizens using a phone-tapping system and a Chinese-built internet firewall that censors social media, in one of the most comprehensive examples of state surveillance outside China, Amnesty International said. – Reuters

Asia

Among the questions facing ruling-party members who will choose Japan’s likely next leader is who will get along best with President Trump. – Wall Street Journal

The exit of Japan’s prime minister is likely to extend political uncertainty. That may unsettle bonds or the yen, but it’s given equities a lift, pushing the benchmark into record territory. – Wall Street Journal

A Thai court on Tuesday ordered Thaksin Shinawatra, an influential former prime minister, to serve one year in prison for a previous conviction, the latest blow to his political fortunes. – New York Times 

Vanuatu delayed a landmark security and development agreement with Australia because of concerns it could limit the Pacific island nation receiving infrastructure funding from other countries, Prime Minister Jotham Napat said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Tuesday that a right-wing opposition lawmaker should apologise for comments suggesting an unsustainable number of Indians were migrating to the country. – Reuters

Just days after taking power, Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul signalled through his first cabinet appointments an intention to repair a struggling economy and calm simmering border tensions with Cambodia. – Reuters

International Criminal Court judges on Monday postponed hearings to determine the definitive charges against former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte to see if the octogenarian is fit enough to follow the pre-trial proceedings in his case. – Reuters

A plan by the Philippine government to purchase US fighter jets is on hold, according to Jose Manuel Romualdez, Manila’s ambassador to Washington. – Bloomberg

Olivier Guitta writes: Vocal enemies of the peace deal, orchestrated by the United States with the help and goodwill of Armenia and Azerbaijan, are also enemies of the West, and are repeating messages pushed by Russia, Iran, and their propaganda outlets. This is unsurprising, as the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal killed two birds with one stone. By establishing peace in a key strategic region, it boosted American interests while undermining Russian and Iranian influence and signaling their relative weakness at the same time. – National Interest

Europe

President Emmanuel Macron has lost his second government in less than a year, a measure of how France is caught in a spiral of political dysfunction that is draining its public finances. – Wall Street Journal

Norway’s minority Labour Party government won a second term in power on Monday while the populist right achieved its best-ever election result, official results showed, in a ballot dominated by concerns over rising living costs and wars in Ukraine and Gaza. – Reuters

Pope Leo’s recent forceful statements about the war in Gaza and his strong call for a ceasefire during a meeting last week with Israeli President Isaac Herzog showed the new leader of the Catholic Church developing a robust, if quiet, diplomatic style. – Reuters

Britain said on Monday it could cut the number of visas granted to countries that do not accept the return of migrants with no right to remain, after talks with allies including the United States on how to assert more control over borders. – Reuters

The Czech Republic will expel a Belarusian diplomat it accuses of espionage, the Foreign Ministry said on Monday. – Reuters

The EU’s top sanctions official was in Washington with a team of experts on Monday to discuss what would be the first coordinated transatlantic measures against Russia since President Donald Trump returned to office. – Reuters

Thousands of student-led protesters chanted slogans against Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic at a rally in downtown Belgrade on Monday, accusing police of brutality during recent anti-government demonstrations that have shaken his populist rule. – Associated Press

Editorial: France’s politicians—and voters—have proven again this week that they can break a government. And no one busts a budget with as much elan. Eventually, however, someone will have to choose economic growth, or France will stumble into a fiscal and economic crisis by default. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: For all the rhetoric about stepping up, if the French aren’t even willing to give up two of their holidays, they certainly aren’t going to get on a war footing anytime soon. That’s bad news for Ukraine, which needs their help. And it’s bad news for France, which has never fared well when it fails to adequately prepare for war. – Washington Post 

Fabian Hoffmann writes: If deterrence is the only realistic alternative, a punishment rather than denial posture in the missile domain appears the best among suboptimal options. While associated with its own risks and challenges, it can help convince Russia that aggression against NATO is not worth the costs. If war nonetheless breaks out, it plays a key role in deterring Russian horizontal escalation against European civilian infrastructure and population centers to prevent the atrocities we are currently witnessing in Ukraine. – War on the Rocks

Africa

The Kenyan government is using special antiterrorism courts—established with U.S. money to combat al Qaeda—to threaten political dissidents with decades in prison. – Wall Street Journal

African leaders aim to offer a global model for tackling the climate crisis through green investments, they said on Monday, after the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement deflated the fight against climate change. – Reuters

Mali’s military said it had carried out airstrikes in the gold-rich western region of Kayes after al Qaeda-linked militants took steps to impose a blockade on fuel imports to the landlocked West African country’s capital, Bamako. – Reuters

Former Credit Suisse chief Tidjane Thiam and former President Laurent Gbagbo are barred from contesting next month’s presidential election in Ivory Coast, although Gbagbo’s ex-wife, Simone Gbagbo, will be able to run, an official said on Monday. – Reuters

Police detained a senior official of Uganda’s largest opposition party, National Unity Platform (NUP), on Monday while he attended a court appearance by his colleagues, a lawmaker from the party and a police spokesperson said. – Reuters

International Criminal Court prosecutors will begin presenting evidence Tuesday to support their charges against fugitive Ugandan rebel leader Joseph Kony at the global court’s first ever in absentia hearing. – Associated Press

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara will face four candidates in next month’s election and appears to be a shoo-in to win after key opposition leaders were disqualified from running. – Bloomberg

The Americas

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine visited Puerto Rico on Monday, as the Pentagon looks to intensify military operations against drug cartels based in Latin American countries. – Washington Post

Argentina’s markets tumbled Monday after President Javier Milei’s party suffered a setback in a provincial election that raised questions about support for his pro-market overhauls. – Wall Street Journal

Ten people were killed and 61 injured on Monday morning when a cargo train crashed into a double-decker passenger bus in central Mexico, the authorities said, one of the latest and most lethal accidents as the country expands its railroad network. – New York Times 

Jamaica’s governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) will command a smaller majority in parliament, according to final results from the September 3 election published late on Sunday evening, after the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) doubled its seats in parliament. – Reuters

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Monday that more trade and financial integration among the BRICS group of developing nations would help mitigate the effects of protectionism. – Reuters

A Federal Aviation Administration ban on U.S. commercial flights to Haiti’s capital that expired Monday has been extended to March 7, 2026 because of the risk that powerful gangs might attack flights with drones and small arms. – Associated Press

The U.S. Coast Guard detects and detains scores of drug-running vessels in the Caribbean every year in its role as the world’s drug police on the high seas. – Associated Press

Elizabeth Dickinson writes: As decades of experience have shown, there is no exclusively military solution to Colombia’s violence. Meaningful dialogue and investment in conflict-prone parts of the country are essential to dismantling armed groups’ control. By linking its continuing talks to robust social programs and a targeted security strategy, Mr. Petro can still revive the 2016 accord and work toward the total peace he has promised. For the residents of Guaviare, peace can be more than just a fleeting illusion. – New York Times

United States

Five weeks after President Trump fired the chief of the agency that gathers the country’s labor and price data, his advisers are preparing a report laying out alleged shortcomings of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs data, according to people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday loosened restrictions on immigration raids in Los Angeles that a judge put in place after finding that federal authorities were likely using illegal racial-profiling tactics. – Wall Street Journal

On Monday, House Oversight Committee members confirmed that they received a copy of the birthday book including the letter bearing Trump’s signature and a second letter that references Trump with a crude joke about a woman from another Epstein associate. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration wants tougher immigration enforcement. It also wants Asian manufacturing powerhouses to pour investment into U.S. factories. – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

Across China, tens of thousands of people tagged as troublemakers are trapped in a digital cage, barred from leaving their province and sometimes even their homes by the world’s largest digital surveillance apparatus. Most of this technology came from companies in a country that has long claimed to support freedoms worldwide: the United States. – Associated Press

American tech companies to a large degree designed and built China’s surveillance state, playing a far greater role in enabling human rights abuses than previously known, an Associated Press investigation found. – Associated Press

The US imposed sanctions on a network of cyber scam centers operating in Southeast Asia, a bid to heighten pressure on operations allegedly using forced labor to bilk billions from Americans annually. – Bloomberg

Defense

The US Army awarded contracts to a partnership of Anduril Industries Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc., and another led by Rivet Industries, to produce competing prototypes of a new combat goggle. – Bloomberg

U.S.-based sensor specialist Teledyne Flir has unveiled a drone-in-a-box setup for launching and recovering fast-flying drones from moving ground or maritime platforms, catering to evolving battlefield demands seen in conflicts like Ukraine. – Defense News

The U.S. Air Force last week awarded defense firm Applied Research Associates a two-year contract to design and prototype the next version of the massive bunker-busting bomb that this year struck a key Iranian nuclear facility. – Defense News