Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Pacific island nation Nauru opens its first Israeli embassy, in Jerusalem Katz threatens 'all-out war' on PA over West Bank 'October 7-style attack' terror threat to Israel Atlantic Council’s Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib: For Gaza to recover, Hamas must be expelled U.S. strikes three Iranian ships after missiles fired at American aircraft carrier Time is no longer on Iran's side in the battle of the blockades Iran says Strait of Hormuz deal with Oman just days away How Ukrainian drone strikes are pounding Russia's economy Kremlin says it does not rule out restart of peace talks with Ukraine and US Yemen’s Houthis push toward Red Sea strait as ground fighting escalates North Korean defence minister criticizes joint military drills by US, Japan and South Korea China piles pressure on Taiwan with new patrols off Pacific coast WSJ Editorial: The AfD rises on the German rightIn The News
Israel
Loui Ridi keeps watch from his balcony on a pair of dusty camper vans parked a stone’s throw from his yard, bracing for the next attack. The vans belong to young Israeli squatters who play their own waiting game, smoking cigarettes and milling about. – Wall Street Journal
Israel is facing a water crisis after five of its six desalination plants, accounting for a large share of its water consumption, were knocked offline this week by microscopic algae clogging intake pipes in the Mediterranean Sea. – Washington Post
Hapag-Lloyd is working with the Israeli government on improvements to its proposed $4.2 billion cash purchase of ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, the German shipping group said on Monday. – Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered unauthorized settler outposts in the West Bank to be dismantled, two people familiar with the matter said on Sunday, amid pressure from the U.S. to crack down on settler attacks on Palestinians. – Reuters
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee on Saturday met with Palestinian Americans , including relatives of U.S. citizens killed by Israeli settlers, in a Palestinian town in the occupied West Bank that has been the target of settler attacks. – Reuters
Volkswagen AG sealed a preliminary agreement with Aurelius Capital that would repurpose the German carmaker’s Osnabrück factory for the manufacture of military equipment with Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. – Bloomberg
A top official within the US-backed Board of Peace on Monday said a failure to move forward in Gaza paired with rising violence in the West Bank were making a two-state solution “impossible.” – Agence France-Presse
The tiny Pacific island nation of Nauru inaugurated its first embassy in Israel in Jerusalem on Monday, with Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar attending the ceremony alongside visiting Nauruan Vice President Lionel Aingimea, who is also the country’s foreign minister. – Agence France-Presse
The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, Indonesia and Pakistan on Sunday issued a joint condemnation of remarks by Defense Minister Israel Katz and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir calling for plans to facilitate the emigration of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. – Agence France-Presse
Another European nation has stopped funding the U.N. agency that aids the Palestinians. Finland has followed the U.S. and Sweden in halting donations to the terror-tainted agency. – Fox News
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for the United Kingdom’s ambassador to Israel to be ejected from the country on Monday night, following reports that the UK was planning to announce a ban on trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post
Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have directed the IDF to target senior Palestinian Authority officials in an “all-out war” on terrorism in the West Bank, should Israel identify a plan to launch an “October-7 style” attack on Israeli forces and Jewish settlements. – Jerusalem Post
A 19-year-old resident of northern Israel was charged with membership in a terrorist organization on Monday, becoming the fourth person from the region indicted over alleged ties to ISIS in less than two weeks. The concentrated run of cases included two alleged plots to attack Israeli security forces and a former IDF soldier accused of training to join ISIS abroad. – Jerusalem Post
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that “the end of the Iranian regime is near,” and that its fall would “change the fate of the Middle East and the Jewish people.” – Jerusalem Post
A Hamas terror cell operating in the West Bank area of Akraba near Nablus was dismantled during a multi-agency counterterrorism operation, the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) announced in a joint statement on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post
The Israel Defense Forces announced Friday that a Hamas commander who led the invasion of the Israeli military’s Sufa post on the Gaza border on October 7, 2023, as well as held hostages in captivity, was killed in an airstrike this week. – Times of Israel
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib writes: To achieve this, Gaza needs to be reimagined so it is no longer sustained by an NGO complex or a refugee framework. Gaza will need deep deradicalization across schools, mosques, media and public language to cultivate and produce builders and creators. […] A Palestinian miracle on the Mediterranean is within reach if Gaza rejects Islamism, Jihadism, Hamas and stale nationalist notions, all of which have left it devastated. Will those in the West who express support for Palestinians finally abandon their sloganeering about “resistance”? Effective pro-Palestinian advocacy can speak out against Israeli actions without the futile pursuit of Israel’s destruction. Some people want to make a point; others want to make a difference. The path forward demands the latter. – New York Times
Iran
Iran’s oil export revenue is drying up as a U.S. naval blockade strangles shipments from the Persian Gulf and offshore stockpiles feeding China dwindle, putting more pressure on Tehran’s battered economy. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. military said it struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward two Navy warships, including an aircraft carrier, as the fight to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz intensifies. – Wall Street Journal
By squeezing the Strait of Hormuz, both the U.S. and Iran expected to outlast their foe, believing time would work in their favor. Now, it looks like the trend is moving against Tehran. – Wall Street Journal
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday that a nuclear agreement with Iran might not be achievable anytime soon and that U.S. military action was still needed to deal with the threat from Tehran. – Washington Post
Iran has grown more confident in its ability to attack targets in the Middle East and appears determined to continue the conflict for months to frustrate the United States, according to U.S. intelligence reports in recent weeks. – New York Times
Iran will raise the price of gasoline for users surpassing 110 litres per month starting on Tuesday, a government spokesperson said on Sunday, as it steps up efforts to tackle problems created by the war and crippling U.S. economic sanctions. – Reuters
An average of 10 commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz per day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May, according to shipping data on Monday, after U.S. and Iranian strikes on tankers. – Reuters
Ten people were killed when a fuel tanker exploded on a highway in western Iran as a result of a traffic accident, state media reported on Saturday. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on Friday that the United States may hit Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain very soon. Pickaxe Mountain, located near Iran’s heavily damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility, is a heavily fortified site that hosts two deeply buried tunnel complexes. – Reuters
In the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz, a waterfront once busy with boats, trucks and workers has fallen quiet. It’s a front line of the economic pain that the United States now hopes to intensify after six months of war. – Associated Press
Iran state media on Monday said a ballistic missile with improved capabilities was demonstrating a new doctrine: Tehran “will take action against any threat, even before it is carried out.” – Associated Press
Iran said a deal with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent, a move that could tighten Tehran’s control over the waterway and raise questions over how the US would respond. – Bloomberg
Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday warned South Korea against military deployment or involvement in US operations in the Strait of Hormuz, saying such a move would have “serious consequences.” – Agence France-Presse
Marc Champion writes: Either he capitulates to the US, or he survives long enough to achieve a nuclear breakout, but seen from the vantage point of Khamenei’s bunker, nothing in between is likely to make much sense. Hormuz is a problem that will have to be managed. That will be the cost of the mistake Trump made by going to war in February. But the net result of his actions since 2018 is that the Iranian nuclear question is less resolved, more dangerous and more likely to result in a nuclear arms race than it was when he destroyed the JCPOA. He needs to put the issue back at the heart of his Iran agenda. – Bloomberg
Russia and Ukraine
Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes are inflicting pain on some of the most strategic sectors of the Russian economy. The costs are adding up. By pounding refineries, shipping terminals and e-commerce warehouses, Ukraine is using economic pressure to weaken its larger foe and push Moscow to end the conflict. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump’s envoys achieved one thing with their first trip to Ukraine’s capital on Sunday as they tried to jump-start peace talks between Russia and Ukraine: a brief pause in Russia’s deadly bombing campaign against Kyiv. – Wall Street Journal
The Americans arrived on a train that the Ukrainians called the “peace express.” Yet nothing about the process of ending the war with Russia has been fast or direct, and there is no sign that will change anytime soon. – New York Times
As Russian soldiers attacked trench lines in eastern Ukraine in 2024, Ukrainian artillery crews opened fire. But the rounds, instead of exploding near the advancing troops, flopped out of launch tubes or landed with quiet thumps, kicking up puffs of dust. – New York Times
As anxiety over rumors of a forced military mobilization began to sweep through Moscow, Eradzh, a 36-year-old entrepreneur, turned to his A.I. assistant to parse the news and calculate the likelihood of a draft. – New York Times
Russia attacked the headquarters of Ukraine’s domestic intelligence service in the heart of the capital, Kyiv, on Friday afternoon, aiming an exploding drone directly at the office of the agency’s director, President Volodymyr Zelensky said. – New York Times
As a round of peace talks wrapped up earlier this year, Ukrainian negotiators received a surprise offer from the Russians. The Ukrainians could fly to Moscow and continue the talks, the Russians suggested. The upside: a potential meeting with President Vladimir V. Putin. The downside: possible arrest, or worse. – New York Times
Russia’s failed drone attack on a German airport was part of a dangerous pattern of escalation that, experts and officials said, risks sparking an open confrontation with NATO — whether the Kremlin wants it or not. – New York Times
Russia said on Monday it was closing down the German Consulate-General in St. Petersburg in retaliation for Berlin’s decision to close the Russian consulate in Bonn and a Russian cultural centre in Berlin. – Reuters
The Kremlin said on Monday that it did not rule out the resumption of peace talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States, but said it was too early to say when and where such talks might take place. – Reuters
The air raid alert in Kyiv was live, warning of approaching Russian jet-propelled drones, but fortunately there were no explosions nearby during the final phase of Alyona Bohatyrenko’s labour. – Reuters
Ukraine sees a growing appetite among European allies to renew a serious discussion on the use of Russian frozen assets, a senior government official told Reuters, following an informal EU foreign ministers’ meeting on Wednesday in which Kyiv took part. – Reuters
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Sunday that Moscow has not ruled out a trilateral meeting between the presidents of Russia, the U.S. and China, state news agency TASS reported. – Reuters
France is on track with its plan to send SAMP/T air defense systems to Ukraine, according to an official in President Emmanuel Macron’s office who briefed reporters on Monday. – Bloomberg
Ukraine says it hit oil-processing plants in Russia’s Perm region and Tatarstan overnight, resuming attacks after US envoys visited Moscow this weekend. – Bloomberg
Ukraine is resigned to Russia’s war dragging on through another tough winter and is looking for a “package” from allies that would cover air defense reinforcements as well as energy, including US LNG. – Bloomberg
Andreas Kluth writes: writes: Putin sees hybrid warfare as a perfect tool for another reason. By definition, it describes belligerence that stays just below the threshold that would provide a casus belli, the spark for outright war. But where exactly is that threshold? By constantly probing and pushing and provoking, Putin is collecting information on the West’s red lines, or pinkish blurs, while also moving them through habituation. If the West had a leader who commands enough respect in the Kremlin to achieve Peace Through Strength, as it did during the Cold War, it might be able to stop Putin. But it doesn’t. And as long as that remains true, Russia will revel in exposing Western indecision, division and weakness, while leaving this part of the world in something that may not be all-out war, but isn’t peace either. – Bloomberg
Tom Rogan writes: None of this will actually serve the cause of peace. It will only encourage Putin to believe that he can avoid new U.S. sanctions or increased American support for Ukraine by his continued Moscow theater productions. In turn, if Kushner and Witkoff want to avoid being inadvertent dancers in the Kremlin’s ballet, they should stay at home. When Putin wants to be serious about peace, he can make it clear. Only then should these two peacemakers go back to Moscow. – Washington Examiner
Turkey
Turkey has signed a cooperation agreement with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) that will support environmental investments, urban infrastructure and climate change efforts, Environment Minister Murat Kurum said on Friday. – Reuters
The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on a small Turkish investment bank and two subsidiaries on Friday as part of the Trump administration’s campaign to increase economic pressure on Iran, the department said. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia is in advanced talks with Türkiye over possible participation in the country’s KAAN fifth-generation fighter jet program, according to a report, as testing of the aircraft’s new prototypes continues. – Hürriyet Daily News
Ani Chkhikvadze writes: Iran’s future status also matters. The fall of the Islamic Republic would weaken the armed proxies that Tehran has used to destabilize its neighbors. But the resulting vacuum could allow Turkey to greatly expand its influence across Iraq, Syria, and the Caucasus with fewer regional constraints. Conversely, a more pro-American Iran could act as a counterweight to Ankara. But the top line here is clear. Washington continues withdrawing from the region, and Turkey will have fewer reasons to accommodate American concerns and greater freedom to impose its preferences on its neighbors. – Washington Examiner
Yemen
Fighting in Yemen has escalated in recent days as the Houthis, an Iran-backed militia, try to seize territory that could give them greater control over an important international shipping route through the Red Sea, according to local security officials. – New York Times
Yemen’s Tehran-backed Houthis attacked energy facilities and cities in U.S. ally Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, wounding more than 70 people and underscoring the risk of the Iran conflict escalating into a wider regional war. – Reuters
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis on Monday accused Saudi Arabia of carrying out airstrikes around the country, including the deadly bombardment of a prison, as the rebels pressed an offensive to seize territory near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. – Agence France-Presse
Yemen’s anti-Houthi National Resistance Forces (NRF) have announced the discovery of bodies of Somali Al Shabab fighters among Houthi casualties on the west coast. – The National
Gulf States
The United Arab Emirates said Friday it had pardoned an Egyptian poet and dissident, days after he was sentenced to 10 years in prison, a case that drew scrutiny from human rights experts over the Gulf state’s efforts to punish critics beyond its borders. – New York Times
The United Arab Emirates is building alternative routes for its energy exports and trade to ensure they are not “held hostage” by the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said on Monday. – Reuters
A planned U.S.-Saudi atomic deal does not include Riyadh signing the Additional Protocol that gives the U.N. nuclear watchdog sweeping inspection powers, but something close to it on some points is in the works, the agency’s chief said on Monday. – Reuters
Oman said it had evacuated 16 crew members from the Saudi-owned tanker Sidr, after it was attacked by Iran, according to a statement posted on X by its Maritime Security Centre. The Sidr was one of two supertankers carrying Saudi oil that were reported hit while transiting the Strait of Hormuz last Monday. – Reuters
The U.S. State Department said on Friday it had approved the potential sale of Joint Direct Attack Munitions-Extend Range to Saudi Arabia for an estimated $5 billion. The principal contractor is Boeing, the state department said. – Reuters
A liquefied natural gas tanker that loaded in Qatar early last month has sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, the first visible exit of the country’s LNG via the waterway since July. – Bloomberg
Editorial: Congress should demand safeguards to prevent America from inadvertently helping China and should press the administration to renegotiate the deal to include a ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing. Congress should also require Saudi Arabia to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Additional Protocol, the strongest inspections regime to date. A 2009 U.S.-UAE nuclear agreement can serve as a model. A U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal should strengthen America’s strategic position, not weaken it. It should secure lasting peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel, not empower their enemies. For this to happen, Congress will have to step up where the administration has failed to do so. – Washington Examiner
Eric Wargotz writes: Meanwhile, European maritime states reject the Iran-Oman framework entirely. They are horrified by the precedent of paying a rogue regime a protection fee to cross international waters, yet they remain dependent on U.S. military intervention. By attempting to placate an aggressive neighbor to save its shipping economy, Muscat handed Tehran a geopolitical lever to extort the West. Facing immense scrutiny, Oman could be disconnected from the U.S. financial system unless it halts its diplomatic accommodations of Iranian leverage over the shipping lane. With oil supertankers burning off its coast and U.S. warships enforcing freedom of navigation by force, Oman is learning a brutal lesson in statecraft: When superpowers collide, neutrality is the first casualty. – Washington Examiner
Middle East & North Africa
The cartel of influential oil-producing nations known as OPEC Plus said on Sunday that it would keep production flat as the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, spiked sharply in recent days after military strikes resumed in the Persian Gulf. – New York Times
The Israeli military launched a new wave of deadly strikes in southern Lebanon on Monday, part of an intensifying bombardment in recent days that has fueled fears that Israel could push deeper into Lebanese territory as it entrenches control of land it has seized. – New York Times
The schoolyard in southern Lebanon echoed with the squeals of playing children despite the beating sun and distant booms of Israeli airstrikes. But for most of the youth there, the public school isn’t where they learn. It’s where they live. – Reuters
A Tunisian judge on Saturday ordered the detention of prominent journalist Mohamed Yousfi, an outspoken critic of President Kais Saied, hours after police arrested him in what critics said was an attempt to stifle dissenting voices. – Reuters
The nuclear reactor Syria had nearly completed in 2007 when Israeli jets destroyed it was of a type that could quickly produce fissile material usable in nuclear weapons, U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Monday. – Reuters
Korean Peninsula
Just over a year ago, the botched launch of the Kang Kon enraged Kim Jong Un. On Sunday, the North Korean leader beamed with pride after he commissioned the warship into North Korea’s navy. Kim and his daughter, sporting an all-white outfit, were saluted by sailors as they strolled together down a red carpet. – Wall Street Journal
North Korea’s newly appointed defence minister, Kim Song-gi, has called joint military drills by South Korea, Japan and the United States a provocation, state media KCNA reported on Monday. Kim also vowed to take “strong and reflective countermeasures” if the U.S. and its allies sought a new military confrontation in a statement carried by KCNA. – Reuters
North Korea and Russia opened their first road bridge on Monday in a carefully choreographed display of friendship, a structure which spans the Tumen river and which both sides cast as an important milestone in their deepening strategic partnership. – Reuters
South Korea and the United States have agreed on the size of Seoul’s planned investment in a gas project in Texas at around $22.3 billion, Korean media outlet Edaily reported on Monday, citing unidentified officials and politicians. – Reuters
China
Tourism checks a lot of boxes for Beijing’s planners. It is a way of encouraging Chinese people to spend when many are holding back amid slowing economic momentum. When foreign tourists visit, their spending is considered an export—and it is less politically sensitive than the export of manufactured goods that is brewing tensions with China’s trade partners. – Wall Street Journal
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has hit the road this September for an unusual series of diplomatic trips spanning four countries, three state visits, two multilateral summits and one widely anticipated meeting with President Donald Trump. – Washington Post
Relations between China and Mexico are not directed against any third party and should not be influenced by any third party, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a meeting with his Mexican counterpart in Beijing on Monday. – Reuters
China could see recent cuts to U.S.-South Korean military exercises as an opportunity to reassert itself in the Indo-Pacific, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said on Monday, though he said Washington had assured Manila that its commitments to the Philippines remained unchanged. – Reuters
The U.S. and China are gearing up to discuss AI safety risks during a dialogue planned for mid-September, two sources briefed on the discussions told Reuters, as rapidly advancing frontier AI capabilities reach a global tipping point. – Reuters
President Xi Jinping is preparing a large business delegation to accompany him on his visit to Washington, two sources said, an unusual move given U.S. scepticism towards Chinese investment and Beijing’s strained ties with private enterprise. – Reuters
For decades, China’s maritime pressure on Taiwan centered on the major shipping strait separating the two neighbors. Now, Beijing is piling unprecedented pressure on its Pacific coast — a vital lifeline with US allies. – Bloomberg
China slapped anti-dumping measures on Japanese shipments of a chemical used in the production of semiconductors, a fairly targeted move that nonetheless escalates a diplomatic dispute with Tokyo over Taiwan. – Bloomberg
China has named a former vice finance minister as acting mayor of Shanghai, the latest in a string of appointments ahead of a key congress for the ruling Communist Party next year. – Bloomberg
A Chinese state-owned firm has supplied Russia with the materials required to build hundreds of kamikaze drones, according to internal Russian company shipping documents obtained by POLITICO. – Politico
Tom Tugendhat writes: One can recognize that both sides of the Taiwan Strait believe they are part of one country while also recognizing that each administration has jurisdiction over its own affairs. And at the same time, know that the order that built today’s prosperity can be defended without taking a position on Taiwan’s final status. A carefully worded acceptance of a one-China policy, which most of the West recognizes, forces no one to reject Taiwan’s participation in international institutions. Diplomacy must be able to manage ambiguity. But it should not tolerate bullying, especially when the bullying threatens us all. – Washington Post
South Asia
Nearly two weeks have passed since a fierce deluge of ice, boulders and mud tore through a border complex in Tibet, but China has not released an official list of those missing. In the information void, people have found their own ways to seek help and vent their grief. – New York Times
At least seven people were killed when a residential building collapsed in a New Delhi neighborhood popular with college students, and rescue crews were working to free people trapped beneath the wreckage, the authorities in India said on Monday. – New York Times
Days after Chandika Shrestha’s family carried out her last rites, expecting never to find her body, a faint noise came from a house along the ravaged riverside in northern Nepal. – New York Times
Nepali rescuers searched on Monday for more than 100 hydropower workers feared trapped in tunnels days after four miracle rescues from the wreckage of catastrophic floods that laid waste to towns and villages on the Himalayan border with China. – Reuters
Vietnam and Myanmar agreed on Saturday to deepen defence and security cooperation, elevating the sector to a pillar of bilateral ties as Vietnamese leader To Lam hosted Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing in Hanoi. – Reuters
The flash floods two weeks ago swallowed settlements and swept away roads and bridges in Nepal’s mountains and river valleys. Roughly 7,500 homes were destroyed, another 20,000 need rebuilding and at least 12 hydropower projects were damaged. The damage estimate so far of $2.56 billion is a staggering bill for a country with a total budget of $14 billion for the current fiscal year. – Associated Press
Russia is ready to supply India with as much oil as it needs to meet its energy requirements, the Kremlin’s envoy to New Delhi said, while denouncing plans to intensify sanctions on Moscow’s oil sales as “pressure tactics.” – Bloomberg
Pakistan’s military showcased an air defense system in a promotional video that resembles a Chinese platform, potentially signaling another layer to defense cooperation that has deepened since the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict. – Bloomberg
A United Nations resolution promoting more accurate map projections has sparked fresh tensions between India and Pakistan over a disputed territory between the two nations. – Bloomberg
Dov Zakheim writes: Like other states, notably in the Middle East, Paris and New Delhi are jointly hedging their bets against what they perceive might be future American policies. That is not an outcome that will benefit the U.S. France’s policy of extending its deterrent umbrella should complement the American deterrent, not replace it. As an increasingly powerful player in Asia, India should work alongside, rather than apart from, Washington’s efforts to deter an increasingly aggressive China. There is much to be said for the blossoming French-Indian partnership, but it should not come about because of a loss of faith in American reliability. – The Hill
Asia
U.S. negotiators used the promise of access to Nvidia’s artificial-intelligence chips to help secure a preliminary peace deal reached last year between the nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan, according to people involved in the talks. – Wall Street Journal
Taiwan flexed its chip diplomacy muscles at a major trade show last week, portraying itself as a democratic and reliable supplier for the AI revolution, while signalling a willingness to share the benefits of its semiconductor prowess with like-minded partners. – Reuters
Australia’s hard-right One Nation party, which has surged in recent polls, on Monday proposed redirecting a portion of people’s future pension contributions to take-home pay, a move criticised by the ruling centre-left Labor party. – Reuters
Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte posted bail on Saturday after a trial court ordered her arrest on three counts of grave threats linked to comments she made about President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the first lady and a former House speaker. – Reuters
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s lawmaker-cousin is seeking hospital detention after authorities arrested him for alleged plunder of $118 million in public works funds. – Bloomberg
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi looks set to prioritize continuity in a coming cabinet reshuffle, with key posts remaining unchanged as she enters the second year of her premiership. – Bloomberg
Europe
NATO airspace in Europe is now an active front line. Almost every week this summer brought new reports of drone incursions over the alliance’s eastern frontier and North Atlantic Treaty Organization jets mobilized to shoot them down. – Wall Street Journal
Greenland is cashing in on President Trump’s threats and talk of dealmaking by using its position as a strategic Arctic linchpin to draw investments from European allies. – Wall Street Journal
Germany’s embattled leader faces an uphill battle to save his government after a historic far-right victory on Sunday that could reshape the country’s political system. – Wall Street Journal
The eurozone economy picked up more rapidly than previously estimated in the three months through June despite the jump in energy prices caused by the war between the U.S. and Iran, but that resilience will be challenged if the conflict continues to block the Strait of Hormuz. – Wall Street Journal
Belgium’s revelation that it had arrested a Chinese citizen on suspicion of stealing advanced microchip technology is fueling European anxiety about Beijing’s trade practices and quest for industrial secrets. – Wall Street Journal
Thousands of mourners gathered in Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, on Monday for the funeral of Ratko Mladic, bowing their heads in respect before the coffin of the former Bosnian Serb general and convicted war criminal known as the “Butcher of Bosnia.” – New York Times
Prosecutors in the eastern German state of Saxony said on Monday that authorities had found a total of 21 explosive devices as part of their investigations into attacks on the electricity grid that have kept authorities on high alert for days. – Reuters
Germany asked the International Court of Justice on Monday to throw out a case brought by Nicaragua which accuses Berlin of violating the 1948 Genocide Convention because it supplies arms to Israel. – Reuters
Sweden’s ruling right-wing bloc has closed in further on the centre-left opposition ahead of Sunday’s general election, according to a fresh opinion poll by Novus that shows the Liberals party making parliament’s 4% threshold for the first time in years. – Reuters
Germany is planning a broad package of measures to strengthen its defences against drone attacks, cyber intrusions and other forms of Russian sabotage after a failed airport drone attack last month, an interior ministry spokesperson said on Sunday. – Reuters
A quarter of a century after the Al-Qaeda attacks on the United States, jihadist groups still pose a major threat to security in Europe, but a new menace has surfaced that is driven mostly by young people online and the authorities are worried. – Associated Press
Serbia’s prime minister called for the dissolution of parliament, paving the way for a snap election that may enable embattled President Aleksandar Vucic to switch to the role of premier. – Bloomberg
A Spanish judge launched a formal investigation into the mass arrival of migrants in Ceuta, Spain’s exclave in North Africa, saying the incident may have involved a crime against the country’s territorial integrity. – Bloomberg
Finland finished building 200 kilometers (124 miles) of fence along its border with Russia, strengthening surveillance along the longest stretch of NATO boundary against its main adversary. – Bloomberg
A surge of migrants into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta this summer didn’t pose a threat to the European Union’s free-travel zone, Portugal’s foreign minister said on Saturday. – Bloomberg
Two penthouses linked to Iran’s Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei located near the Israeli embassy at London are reportedly up for sale, being listed by Knight Frank and Southeby’s Real Estate after an alleged frontman for the supreme leader was sanctioned by the United States. – New York Sun
Europe was supposed to leave gas facilities like Kårstø behind. Instead, the giant processing plant is at the center of a wider continental shift. Emission reductions are out. Energy security is in. – Politico
Editorial: The Saxony-Anhalt election is a warning that eventually voters may take a chance on outright AfD governance. Some American conservatives may cheer on the AfD’s rise. That’s a mistake. The party’s instincts are anti-American, and in power it would undermine the North Atlantic Treaty Organization from within rather than strengthening America’s alliances in Europe. But the AfD’s faults don’t absolve politicians in mainstream parties of their obligation to show voters they can deliver real change on out-of-control migration policies and economic decline. Otherwise expect results like those in Saxony-Anhalt to become Germany’s new normal. – Wall Street Journal
Jose Lev Alvarez writes: Third, the Pentagon must condition all Rota Naval Base modernization funding on two ironclad benchmarks: an absolute ban on dual-use flows to Iran, and an immediate unwind of Chinese hardware from Spanish 5G and judicial infrastructure. To cement this alignment, Washington should consider establishing a joint U.S.-Israeli-Catalan maritime counterterrorism cell in Barcelona. Supporting Orriols within her pro-independence agenda is not a matter of romantic nationalism. It is a calculated strategy to punish a prime minister who treats NATO interests as optional and Chinese ambitions as personal. Madrid chose the breach; Barcelona offers the counterweight. Washington can no longer afford to ignore it. – Washington Examiner
Africa
The United Nations voted Friday to endorse a world map that more accurately reflects the true size of continents, following an African-led campaign. – Washington Post
Sudan’s authoritarian government built a secret stockpile of chemical weapons that senior military officials sought to conceal after chlorine bombs were used against rebel forces, according to internal videos, documents, text messages and other materials reviewed by The Washington Post. – Washington Post
Kenya’s government offered a temporary amnesty to undocumented East African nationals after hundreds of Burundians flocked to their country’s embassy in Nairobi on Monday seeking travel documents, fearing a crackdown on small-scale traders from abroad. – Reuters
At least 25 people, many of them schoolchildren and teenagers, were killed when a bus plunged into a ravine on Fogo, one of Cape Verde’s islands in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of West Africa, national news agency Inforpress reported on Sunday. – Reuters
Niger has blamed France for inciting an attack on a key military airbase by mutinous soldiers last week, according to a government statement read on TV on Friday. – Reuters
Democratic Republic of Congo plans to tighten control over geological data that guides billions of dollars in mining exploration, potentially extending state influence over the development of future mineral discoveries. – Reuters
A new Ebola case has been recorded in an area controlled by AFC/M23 rebels in eastern Congo, the group said, more than two months after it declared the outbreak over in the territory it holds. – Reuters
Two weeks after gunmen raided the northwestern Nigerian village of Dekera, killing dozens and kidnapping hundreds, residents and family members say they have heard nothing from the kidnappers and seen little action from the government. – Reuters
South Africa’s biggest political party retains a narrow lead in voter support in the commercial capital of Johannesburg, two months before the country’s local-government elections, an Ipsos survey shows. – Bloomberg
Former Sierra Leone President Ernest Bai Koroma, accused of plotting to overthrow the government, has returned from Nigeria after criminal charges against him were dropped. – Bloomberg
Areig Elhag writes: Disarmament and military integration, therefore, should not be treated as issues to be addressed only after a ceasefire. This should be part of the negotiating process from the beginning. Washington should make the future of Sudan’s armed formations a priority in any political settlement, linking future power-sharing arrangements to clear and measurable progress on disarmament and the creation of a unified national military. This will require supporting transparent mechanisms to identify armed formations, track weapons, map where these forces operate, and monitor compliance with agreed steps toward disbandment or integration. Integration into a unified national army should also be subject to rigorous vetting, so that commanders accused of serious abuses cannot escape accountability simply by moving into a new military structure. – The National Interest
The Americas
On a phone call in March, a Trump administration emissary made a bold pitch. How would Alejandro Betancourt, a wealthy Venezuelan oilman and influential power player in his country, feel about taking on a new business partner: the U.S. government? – Washington Post
Peru’s ambassador in Washington, Luis Miguel Castilla, received a stern phone call in 2015 from the State Department, after U.S. officials learned that a Chinese firm would finance a sprawling new Pacific Coast port project. Why, they asked, was Peru handing Beijing a strategic foothold in South America? Mr. Castilla’s answer was blunt: Western investors had already passed. – New York Times
The Trump administration’s new partner in Venezuela stands to vastly expand its reach in the country’s most important oil basins as part of an unorthodox deal announced last week. – New York Times
Colombia’s leader sits at a desk surrounded by military and police officials, presenting what he describes as evidence of a successful military operation. But the rows in front of him are not boxes of seized cocaine or weapons. They are dead bodies. – New York Times
Argentina’s rugged Patagonia is drawing increasing interest from investors searching for sites for mega data centers who are enticed by the region’s cool temperatures, renewable energy, shale gas and empty stretches of land. – Reuters
Brazil’s opposition took to the streets on Independence Day on Monday as right-wing presidential candidate Senator Flavio Bolsonaro sought to capitalize on a Supreme Court crisis to bolster his campaign against leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in next month’s election. – Reuters
Bolivian authorities on Monday confirmed that nine people have died after an explosion on Friday at a military barracks in the Bolivian municipality of Viacha, about 30 km (20 miles) from La Paz. – Reuters
Peru declared a state of emergency in five high-security prisons on Saturday, allowing police and military forces to take control of the facilities in response to citizens’ security concerns, the government said in a decree. – Reuters
Costa Rican President Laura Fernandez said on Friday that U.S. ground operations could strengthen national security in the Central American nation, while emphasizing that nothing concrete was in the works with Washington and any such move would require legislative approval. – Reuters
North America
Like many in Haiti’s Artibonite region, the 26-year-old woman once viewed the Coalition as protectors. A powerful group of murky origins, one of many of this country’s “self-defense brigades,” the Coalition emerged three years ago to fight back against the criminals who were preying on communities such as hers. – Washington Post
New Canadian tariffs targeting roughly $20 billion in U.S. imports officially snapped into place on Tuesday, the latest escalation in an increasingly costly trade war that has ensnarled two longtime allies. – New York Times
Dozens of deportees are arriving in the Haitian city of Cap Haitien weekly as the Trump administration pushes to remove Haitians who lack legal immigration status in the United States, and some are now marooned in an unfamiliar place. – New York Times
Cuba’s top diplomat said on Monday there are no talks underway with the United States, nor were there any plans for future negotiations, amid a “genocidal” blockade that Cuba says has cost the island nation over $8 billion in economic damages in the last year. – Reuters
Haiti’s armed gangs are increasingly expanding from Port-au-Prince into rural areas, adopting hit-and-run tactics including kidnappings, cattle theft and roadblocks while security and political responses remain focused on the capital, a new report said on Monday. – Reuters
Orlando J. Pérez and Randy Pestana write: Neither the public statement of conditions nor the distinction that sanctions draw depends on knowing when Ortega and Murillo will leave power. Ortega is 80. The reform writes a seven-year clock for whoever holds the office after him, binds the army and police leadership to it, and closes the legal routes an opponent might use to contest it. That is what a succession plan looks like when its authors have stopped bothering to disguise one. The United States cannot dictate the timing or the shape of that succession. It can, however, set conditions for a post-Ortega-Murillo government that would enable a renewed U.S.-Nicaragua defense relationship and the benefits derived from it. Ultimately, the officers will decide whether to maintain a Russian-dependent posture outside the hemispheric order or rejoin a system built on democratic norms. At the moment, they have nothing to go on other than the former. – War on the Rocks
United States
As the Trump administration tightens its economic squeeze on Iran, it faces a surprising weak link in its campaign to cut off the regime from the global financial system: America’s own banks. – Wall Street Journal
President Donald Trump on Sunday suggested renaming New Mexico as “New America,” an idea he floated amid dozens of other social media posts that included memes of the president, insults for his rivals and messages that Democrats said were distasteful. – Washington Post
The F.B.I. is investigating the theft and sale of scans of millions of identity documents belonging to people in the United States and Canada. – New York Times
The United States, Britain, France and Germany are seeking a resolution by the U.N. nuclear watchdog’s board next week reporting Iran to the U.N. Security Council for the first time in 20 years, according to diplomats and the proposed text seen by Reuters. – Reuters
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Latin America next week, visiting Ecuador and meeting a pair of newly elected presidents in Colombia and Peru in his first trips to those two countries as America’s top diplomat, the State Department said on Friday. – Reuters
President Donald Trump called the war in Iran “small potatoes,” the latest comment from a top US leader downplaying the scope of a conflict that has lasted more than six months. – Bloomberg
Bill Drexel writes: These may be smoke screens, as critics claim, but may also be signs that the organization is moderating under the responsibilities of leading a social movement that commands political power. One need not endorse the RSS’s views to know that it is imperative the U.S. engage with it and seek to understand it. India is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy, is indispensable to the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, and is increasingly consequential in a restive Middle East. With public appearances like those that drew Mr. Mamdani’s condemnation, the RSS has indicated an interest in greater international engagement. That should be a welcome development to anyone hoping for more productive U.S.-India relations. – Wall Street Journal
Cybersecurity
For years, a sign outside one of Silicon Valley’s many nondescript offices said Inspur, the name of one of China’s most important technology companies. – New York Times
Survivors of a mass shooting in British Columbia filed 30 new lawsuits against OpenAI this week, contending that the company should have notified the police when it shut down the shooter’s disturbing ChatGPT account eight months before the attack. – New York Times
U.N. rights chief Volker Turk warned on Monday that artificial intelligence could pose a threat to humanity, and pledged to press AI firms to reduce risks that his office said included disruptions to services, communications and democratic systems. – Reuters
Italian technology collective Autistici/Inventati (A/I) said on Sunday it would shut down its services after a U.S. terrorism designation led to the suspension of its .org domain and the closure of its bank account. The closure affects about 16,000 mailboxes, 1,500 websites, 5,500 mailing lists and 10,000 blogs, according to the U.S. State Department. – Reuters
A swarm of rogue OpenAI agents hijacked a German website this spring and transformed it into a bulletin board for other AI agents, according to new research published Friday and two people familiar with the matter. – Reuters
Australia on Tuesday proposed giving social media users the option to select the content they see on their feeds, marking the next step in the government’s push to improve online safety, following its world-first social media ban for children. – Reuters
A group of European Parliament representatives are seeking to delay Serbia’s entry into the European Union and send other messages to Belgrade over the government’s usage of spyware. – Cyberscoop
Russian data center operators are reportedly preparing to spend more on physical defenses as Moscow tightens security requirements for critical infrastructure amid continued Ukrainian drone attacks. – The Record
A $10 million reward has been posted by the State Department for information on the whereabouts of senior Iranian official Amir Yaryab. Yaryab allegedly leads the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Cyber-Electronic Command (CEC). – The Record
Defense
The Pentagon is investigating the high likelihood that an explosion in southern Iran that destroyed a home hosting a wedding celebration was caused by a U.S. bomb that missed a nearby target, a person familiar with the operation said. – Washington Post
U.S. forces operating near Ecuador on Saturday intercepted and destroyed several commercial vessels believed to be used for refueling boats smuggling drugs to the United States. – New York Times
U.S. military officials say they have disabled advertising trackers on a range of phones and computers, according to letters released on Friday by U.S. Senator Ron Wyden and statements given to Reuters, a development that follows reports that commercially available location data had been used to target American forces in the Middle East. – Reuters
Spatial intelligence firm Vantor is set to supply the Navy with persistent, AI-enabled maritime monitoring assets that steadily spot and surveil “dark” fleets and other non-compliant vessels in and around the Pacific Ocean. – Defensescoop
The loss of dozens of MQ-9A Reapers during Operation Epic Fury has prompted the Air Force to rethink its plans to replace the drone, with officials now looking to field a cheaper successor in large numbers much more quickly. – Defensescoop
Textron Systems recently secured two task orders from Naval Air Systems Command to use contractor-owned, contractor-operated drones to provide intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance services in support of 7th Fleet in the Pacific and other U.S. military forces. – Defensescoop