Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The United States government has seized nearly one million barrels of Iranian crude oil that it says was being smuggled to China in violation of U.S. sanctions against Iran, after it raised the threat of prosecution to get the tanker brought to American waters, newly unsealed court papers show. – New York Times

Iran’s limited steps to slow its buildup of near-weapons-grade uranium may help ease U.S.-Iranian tensions but do not signify progress toward a wider nuclear deal before the 2024 U.S. elections, say analysts. – Reuters

Elliott Abrams writes: After receiving such a letter, colleges could be sued by anyone taken hostage in Iran if the college ignored the government’s advisory and shirked its duty of care to students. Whatever strategy policy makers choose, one thing is certain. The frequency of the Islamic Republic’s hostage-taking demands that Washington do more than complain, negotiate and meet growing ransom demands, time after time. – Wall Street Journal

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The comments by the Iranian media and foreign ministry express concern that Iran’s diplomatic offensive in the region isn’t enough to reduce Israel’s influence in the region and globally. As such Iran knows that it cannot create a zero-sum game, and that countries will not have to choose between Iran and Israel. Iran is paying attention to what is happening in the days leading up to the third anniversary of the Abraham Accords. – Jerusalem Post

Israel

One man was critically wounded and another person slightly hurt in a stabbing attack in Jerusalem’s Old City on Wednesday, Israeli police said. – Reuters

Morocco’s senate president has postponed a historic visit to Israel due to a medical emergency, the Israeli parliament announced Wednesday. […]Mayara was to be the first Moroccan official and one of the few Muslim leaders ever to set foot in the Knesset. – Associated Press

A former head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency told The Associated Press on Wednesday that Israel is enforcing an apartheid system in the West Bank, joining a tiny but growing list of retired officials to endorse an idea that remains largely on the fringes of Israeli discourse and international diplomacy. – Associated Press

Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau who has often been tied to the terrorist movement’s operations in the West Bank, warned that Israel will push the Middle East into a “broad, comprehensive, and very dangerous confrontation” within the next two years, in an interview with Al-Jazeera on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

A recent Israel Defense Forces raid into a Palestinian home in Hebron, during which five female members of a family were reportedly forced to strip naked during a search, is causing an uproar in the Palestinian territories. – Times of Israel

Eritrea’s government has accused Israel’s Mossad spy agency of fomenting unrest among expat communities, days after clashes between Eritrean regime supporters and opponents and Israeli police turned the streets of southern Tel Aviv into a war zone. – Times of Israel

A man in his 30s was killed in a shooting in the central Israeli city of Ramle on Wednesday night, according to medical officials. Two other people were also injured in the shooting and taken to hospital. – Haaretz

Editorial: At age 87, Mr. Abbas isn’t likely to abandon his conviction that Jews are interlopers in every part of Israel. His predecessor, Yasser Arafat, once stunned President Clinton’s negotiators by denying even that Jerusalem had been the site of the Jewish Temple. Maybe it’s time American liberals stopped being surprised. There’s a reason Arab-Israeli negotiations have moved past the Palestinian veto. – Wall Street Journal

Omer Dostri writes: This strategy inherently carries the risk of escalation, which must be factored into the equation. Consequently, Israel must prepare in advance for the possibility of a brief, multi-day conflict with Hezbollah, during which it can exploit the opportunity to inflict substantial damage on the organization’s missile and rocket stockpiles, along with its military infrastructure. – Jerusalem Post

Itamar Marcus writes: One could summarize the Oslo Accords by declaring them a major success for the PLO, but a dismal failure for Israel. But there is a much deeper truth. The peace process that Israel imagined didn’t fail. It never existed. – Jerusalem Post

Saudi Arabia

The Kremlin said on Wednesday Russian President Vladimir Putin had spoken by phone with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and that recent agreements on supply cuts had ensured stability on global energy markets. – Reuters

Senior US and Palestinian officials have travelled to Riyadh for talks on a complex deal to establish diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel in return for Israeli concessions to the Palestinians and American security guarantees for the kingdom. – Financial Times

As Washington, Jerusalem, Riyadh, and Ramallah chase an elusive Saudi-Israeli peace treaty, Iran and its Mideast proxies quietly — though increasingly less so — are preparing for the next war. – New York Sun

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and former senior White House adviser Jared Kushner have encouraged former president Donald Trump to support his successor Joe Biden’s effort to broker a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. – Times of Israel

Middle East & North Africa

The two top officials in Tunisia’s main opposition Ennahda party were arrested, the party said on Tuesday, the latest targeting of opponents of President Kais Saied. – Reuters

Avi Melamed writes: It begs the question of whether removing an American glove could lead to a direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. Historically, Iran has believed that the U.S. is hesitant about military action. A notable exception was in January 2020, when the U.S. targeted and killed Major-General Qasem Soleimani, a key figure in Iran’s military hierarchy. While Iran retaliated by attacking a U.S. base in Iraq, they were careful to avoid American casualties. This cautious approach suggests Iran wants to avoid an all-out war with the U.S. As the sand continues to shift in the Middle East, sometimes removing one glove can forestall the need to “remove two,” averting a more catastrophic outcome. – The Hill

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The overall trend shows how countries in the region are now focused more on East Asia and vice-versa how countries in East Asia are now more interested in the Middle East and also reducing the conflicts in the region. This is important also because Israel has key ties with countries like Japan, Singapore, and South Korea, as well as India. For the entire Middle East, therefore, the focus on emerging and growing ties with powerful economies in the East is important. – Jerusalem Post

China

The Pentagon intends to field a vast network of AI-powered technology, drones and autonomous systems within the next two years to counter threats from China and other adversaries. […]One approach could be to build on the capabilities demonstrated by Task Force 59, the U.S. Navy’s network of drones and sensors designed to monitor Iran’s military activities in the Middle East. – Wall Street Journal

China ordered officials at central government agencies not to use Apple’s AAPL -3.58%decrease; red down pointing triangle iPhones and other foreign-branded devices for work or bring them into the office, people familiar with the matter said. – Wall Street Journal

China’s exports and imports extended declines in August as the twin pressures of sagging overseas demand and weak consumer spending at home squeezed businesses in the world’s second-largest economy, although the falls were slower than expected. […]South Korean shipments to China, a leading indicator of the latter’s imports, dropped just a fifth last month, slowing from a decrease of 27.5% a month earlier, offering another nod to conditions stabilising in China.  – Reuters

Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on Wednesday it is important to avoid a “new Cold War” when dealing with conflicts between countries as world leaders gathered in Indonesia amid sharpening geopolitical rivalries across the Indo-Pacific region. – Reuters

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy called China’s position on the release of treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant “unfair” and “false” during a visit to Tokyo on Thursday. – Reuters

Minxin Pei writes: We should know Xi’s answer soon. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco in November will present another opportunity to meet with Biden. The MSS statement implies that the Chinese leader may not attend if the US doesn’t show greater “sincerity” between now and November. A second snub would eliminate any mystery about Xi’s feelings — and send a deeply worrying signal about where US-China relations are heading. – Bloomberg

Karishma Vaswani writes: Avoiding these multilateral forums — as difficult and awkward as the conversations might be — represents a lost opportunity. Beijing is still a vital player in the international arena, whether the US likes it or not. China can and should cooperate with the US and other countries on areas like climate change, the war in Ukraine, a future pandemic and the global economy. Xi’s absence means we will all understand China a little bit less — and have to rely on Beijing’s maps for its version of how it sees the world. That makes engagement much harder, at a time when we need it more than ever. – Bloomberg

Zongyuan Zoe Liu writes: The Biden administration can take a page from the playbook of Otto von Bismarck: “Diplomacy is the art of building ladders to allow people to climb down gracefully.” A good start would be for the United States to lend a ladder this fall and help China clean out its gutters—if a Xi-led China is capable of accepting the help. – Foreign Policy

Asia

Japan launched a lunar mission Thursday, overcoming multiple failures and delays to become the fifth country to head to the moon — just weeks after India — in a global race to better understand Earth’s closest neighbor. – Washington Post

Australia and China have made progress in returning to “unimpeded trade” and progress should continue, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Thursday as he met Chinese Premier Li Qiang at a regional summit in Indonesia. – Reuters

China and Australia should “seriously consider” what they have learned from halting their high-level dialogue over the past three years, Li Zhaoxing, a former foreign minister, said on Thursday, as the talks restarted in Beijing. – Reuters

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said on Thursday any attempts to change the status quo by force in the South China Sea cannot be tolerated, calling for a rules-based maritime order in the region, his office said. Yoon was speaking at the East Asia Summit with the ASEAN bloc, China, the United States and others in Jakarta, Indonesia. – Reuters

Bangladesh President Mohammad Shahabuddin called on Thursday for the international community to find a durable solution to the conflict in Myanmar, which has driven hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees to his country. The president made the remarks while attending the East Asia Summit in Jakarta. – Reuters

Armenia said on Wednesday it would host a joint army exercise with the United States next week, at a time of rising military tension with neighbouring Azerbaijan and open friction in its relationship with Russia. – Reuters

It took more than a day of flying, including two refueling stops, for Vice President Kamala Harris to reach this year’s summit of Southeast Asian countries. And once she arrived, she had less than eight minutes of public speaking time during two meetings. But in Jakarta’s cavernous convention center, adorned with billowing flowers and tropical plants for the occasion, Harris saw an opportunity to shape the future of United States foreign policy. – Associated Press

In talks with Southeast Asian leaders Wednesday in the Indonesian capital, Chinese Premier Li Qiang underscored his country’s importance as the world’s second-biggest economy and as the top trading partner of the region. Countering renewed alarm over Beijing’s aggression in the disputed South China Sea, Li cited China’s long history of friendship with Southeast Asia, including joint efforts to confront the coronavirus pandemic and how both sides have settled differences through dialogue. – Associated Press

Michael J. Green writes: But never say never. If concerns about deterring and stopping a destructive and dangerous regional war surpass concerns about trade, regional cohesion, or retaining strategic autonomy, the current patchwork of arrangements among the United States, its bilateral allies, and like-minded partners could very well move in the direction of collective security. The basis of common values, similar threat perception, basic operating structures, and decades of experience with cooperation is there. – Foreign Policy

Africa

The war in Sudan has set off a mass exodus of people who years ago fled a bloody civil war in South Sudan to seek safety in Sudan. But they are returning home to a country still in the grip of political instability, economic stagnation and a massive humanitarian crisis — many of them without actual homes to return to. – New York Times

A judicial tribunal in Nigeria confirmed on Wednesday the results of a contested February presidential election that kept Africa’s most populous country on edge amid allegations of voting irregularities and tainted the first months in power for the declared winner, President Bola Tinubu. – New York Times

To many people, the military takeover in Niger in late July was obviously a coup. And yet, in a prime example of contorted diplomatic-speak, Biden administration officials have so far carefully danced around the world. – New York Times

At least 32 civilians were killed and dozens injured in artillery strikes by the Sudanese army on Tuesday, one of the highest tolls from a single day of fighting since war broke out in April, the activist group Emergency Lawyers said. – Reuters

West Africa’s Central Bank, BCEAO, hiked its main lending rate on Wednesday in the wake of another military coup that has rocked the region and caused trade blocks between countries. – Reuters

The United States is imposing sanctions on the deputy leader of Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) over human rights abuses, the U.S. envoy to the United Nations announced during a trip to Chad’s border with Sudan on Wednesday. – Reuters

South African officials did not know a sanctioned Russian ship was assigned to deliver military equipment to the country until the vessel was nearing national waters, according to an inquiry into an incident that caused diplomatic tensions between South Africa and the U.S. – Associated Press

The first African Climate Summit ended with a call Wednesday for world leaders to rally behind a global carbon tax on fossil fuels, aviation and maritime transport, and it seeks reform of the world financial system that forces African nations to pay more to borrow money. – Associated Press

Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Chad, Sudan, Niger and now Gabon have all faced the upheaval of military takeovers over the past three years, removing democratically elected presidents and tainted family dynasties alike. It is impossible to say which country — if any — will follow, but deficiencies in the political systems of several countries offer a guide to which leaders are vulnerable, analysts said. – Financial Times 

Group of 20 nations agreed to grant the African Union permanent membership status, according to people familiar with the matter, who said that leaders are expected to announce the decision during a summit in India this weekend. – Bloomberg

Joshua Meservey writes: The Chinese Communist Party values Africa for many reasons, but the continent’s diplomatic importance and mineral wealth help explain why it engages the continent so intensively. This reality suggests that the Party’s preoccupation with Africa will persist as it continues its quest for national rejuvenation. – Hudson Institute

United States

Former President Donald Trump hinted that he would not order a U.S. military intervention against China were it to attack Taiwan. – Washington Examiner

The US and European Union are working on an agreement that would introduce new tariffs aimed at excess steel production from China and other countries, as well as put behind them a Trump-era trade conflict. – Bloomberg

Christopher Tremoglie writes: The continued use of the 9/11 AUMF continues to put military personnel in danger, as evidenced by the incidents in Niger. And while the deployment of troops to Niger predates the Biden administration, and both Democratic and Republican presidential administrations have used AUMFs in a questionable fashion, Paul’s letter was focused on returning wartime powers and the use of AUMFs to Congress, as intended by the nation’s Founding Fathers. Allowing any presidential administration unchecked powers to deploy the military without congressional approval runs counter to the core tenets on which the Constitution was founded. – Washington Examiner

Johannes Lang writes: Supplementing our traditional national interests with a deep concern for foreign lives would mean a radical departure from centuries of U.S. foreign policy. But we have to face the murderous consequences of a consistent policy of America first. The problem is not that we are too isolationist or interventionist, too realist or too liberal. The problem is that we don’t care enough about the lives of others. – The Hill

Defense

The US scrapped a test on Wednesday of what’s meant to be the Army’s first hypersonic missile in its arsenal, a setback as the US looks to catch up with China for a crucial weapon of the future. – Bloomberg

As part of the Space Force’s effort to modernize its tactical satellite communications infrastructure, the service is considering how to ensure that international partners can benefit from and contribute to those capabilities. – Defense News

Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. — or AUKUS — have begun overhauling a submarine-industrial base in Western Australia; designing Australia’s future attack submarine SSN-AUKUS, that will incorporate American and Australian technology into a British attack sub design; and eyeing investments in all three countries’ submarine-industrial bases meant to make them more resilient and tightly interwoven. – Defense News

Solving short-term problems for military commanders in the Pacific and Europe is driving the Pentagon’s push to accelerate production of attritable air, sea and ground drones powered by artificial intelligence, USNI News has learned. – USNI News

Mackenzie Eaglen and Todd Harrison write: When it comes to real estate, what matters most is “location, location, location.” But the federal government should not be concerned with the Colorado versus Alabama brawl over the potential future headquarters of U.S. Space Command and instead should rethink the organization altogether. – War on Rocks