Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Hostage killings and irreconcilable demands complicate cease-fire talks Why Hamas tries to hide the number of its militants killed by Israel Iran emerges as a top disinformation threat in U.S. Presidential race Iran pays millions in ransom to end massive cyberattack on banks, officials say The Free Press’ Jay Solomon: How close is Iran to the bomb? Turkey seeks to join the BRICS bloc of emerging economies, a Kremlin official says Israel hits targets in Lebanon after missile barrage Kim Jong Un executes officials after deadly floods, media says WSJ Editorial: The Chinese agent inside Albany Venezuela detains U.S. sailor, officials say U.S. announces plan to counter Russian influence ahead of 2024 election Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis: Hamas tunnels show future wars will be fought undergroundIn The News
Israel
About 300 men from Haredi and religious backgrounds enlisted alongside Wais on Monday, a special day the military arranged for religious recruits. But most Haredim are still resisting draft, even with the deadline for their conscription expected by year’s end. – Wall Street Journal
The execution by Hamas of six Israeli hostages, at least some of whom were on a list of militant captives to be released in the first phase of a proposed cease-fire deal, has complicated already fraught negotiations over the proposed truce being mediated by the United States and partner countries, a senior Biden administration official said Wednesday. – Washington Post
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted for weeks that his forces will not withdraw from the Gaza-Egypt border, a key demand of both Hamas and Egypt in talks to reach a cease-fire deal. But privately, his negotiating team offered to pull troops out as part of a phased agreement, according to three current and former officials from countries involved in the talks — confusing mediators at a critical time in the diplomatic efforts to end the war. – Washington Post
At least six Palestinians were killed and three wounded in the Israeli bombing of a vehicle in Tubas, West Bank, The Palestinian Ministry of Health and the Red Crescent reported on Thursday. – Reuters
Hamas avoids releasing information about those killed among its military wing. In contrast, Hezbollah, has for years released pictures of its dead militants, whom the group’s leader also mentioned in his speeches. […]For Gaza residents, the censorship of the identity of the dead Hamas members has created a complex situation, with clear unwritten rules. – Haaretz
Editorial: Hamas’s Mr. Meshaal traveled last week from Qatar to Turkey, a NATO ally, where he called for West Bank suicide bombings. There was no effort to arrest him. If Mr. Biden wants to squeeze Hamas, he has options other than the symbolic gesture of U.S. criminal charges for a trial in an American courtroom that the defendants are never likely to see. – Wall Street Journal
Editorial: Given those difficult choices, we believe the country must go with the latter and attempt to save as many of the hostages’ lives now as possible. Despite the potential dangers involved, it’s the right thing to do. This is what makes us different from everyone else. If there are Israelis or Jews in distress in Gaza or anywhere in the world, Israel is supposed to be there to help them and bring them to safety. Security is indeed sacrosanct. So is saving lives. – Jerusalem Post
Jonathan Lincoln writes: As unrealistic as it seems today, the eventual deployment of an international peacekeeping mission may be the best hope to solidify a cease-fire and begin the long road toward recovery for Gazans. Israeli, Palestinian, and U.S. leaders must do everything in their power to set the stage for such a mission. The people of Gaza cannot wait for the perfect conditions to emerge. – Foreign Affairs
Iran
None are what they appear to be. Instead, they are part of what American officials and tech company analysts say is an intensifying campaign by Iran to sway this year’s American presidential election. – New York Times
Now a new report by experts shared exclusively with The Associated Press suggests one of Tehran’s most advanced missiles is far less accurate than previously thought. – Associated Press
A massive cyberattack that hit Iran last month threatened the stability of its banking system and forced the country’s regime to agree to a ransom deal of millions of dollars, people familiar with the case say. – Politico
Three Iranian labor rights activists have been released more than two years after their arrest, their lawyer told AFP on Wednesday. – Agence France-Presse
Vahid Beheshti writes: Israel must recognize that as long as it is focused on tackling the tentacles of the octopus of global terrorism, namely the Iranian Regime, it will always be vulnerable to such devious policies. The solution to this dilemma for Israel and its allies is to realize that they must deal with the head of the octopus, the evil regime of the Islamic Republic backing the proxies that are surrounding Israel, and the leaders of the Iranian regime and the IRGC. For as long as they remain in power, they will always try to encircle Israel with their extremist proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, and weaken it through their devious hybrid strategy. – Jerusalem Post
Jay Solomon writes: U.S. and Israeli officials are deeply skeptical that Pezeshkian has the political heft to wrestle control of SPND and Iran’s broader nuclear program from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Ayatollah Khamenei. But there’s still a belief, even in Israel, that the U.S. and Iran will return to the negotiating table, particularly in a Harris administration—even at the risk of Tehran using diplomacy as a cover to continue its nuclear pursuits. – The Free Press
Russia & Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelensky pushed ahead with his sweeping overhaul of the senior government ranks as the head of Ukraine’s ruling party released a slate of nine candidates for top cabinet positions Wednesday evening. – New York Times
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, responding to a question about the potential delivery of long-range U.S. missiles to Ukraine, warned the United States on Wednesday not to joke about Russia’s “red lines”. – Reuters
Chancellor Olaf Scholz took delivery of an advanced air-defense system for the German armed forces and confirmed orders for five more, as well as an additional 17 units for Ukraine to help repel Russian attacks. – Bloomberg
Kseniya Kirillova writes: Conscripts are increasingly fearful of being drafted, which means the risk of a new mobilization cannot be ruled out, according to Sverdlin. For those unwilling to go to the front, activists advise taking action as early as possible, seeking a lawyer, defending their rights, and considering leaving Russia, as this may often be the only way to avoid going to war. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Alexandr Burilkov writes: The U.S. and NATO are at a crossroads. The speed of the eventual Russian capture of Pokrovsk is the benchmark for the remaining offensive potential of the Russian military. Should the city fall after limited fighting, the Russians stand a good chance of returning to maneuver warfare and large territorial gains east of the Dnieper and beyond. A purely military Russian victory in Ukraine would normalize a vicious new status quo where conflicts are resolved “by the sword” without any room for U.S. and Western diplomacy and interests. – National Interest
Stavros Atlamazoglou writes: In the meantime, the Ukrainian Air Force needs to maintain a constant presence over the skies to counter the Russian Aerospace Forces. Although air combat is rather limited due to the prevalence of air defense systems on the ground, fighter and attack jets fly daily sorties. – National Interest
Turkey
President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that Turkey wanted to deepen its ties with Egypt on natural gas and nuclear energy, after talks with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Ankara. – Reuters
A Turkish drone strike killed three people in northern Iraq on Wednesday, Iraqi Kurdish security sources and a local official said. The sources said a vehicle was set on fire after a drone attack and three passengers were killed near Iraq’s northern province of Sulaimaniya. – Reuters
NATO member Turkey has applied for membership in the BRICS bloc of developing economies, a senior Kremlin official said Wednesday, as Russia and China seek to counter the West’s global influence. – Associated Press
Lebanon
Israeli strikes hit targets of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement in Lebanon on Wednesday after dozens of missiles were fired into northern Israel, starting fires but causing no significant damage, the military said. – Reuters
Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli strikes killed a woman and wounded five other people in the country’s south on Wednesday, nearly 11 months since hostilities broke out between Israel and Hezbollah. – Agence France-Presse
European aid sent to Lebanon in an attempt to regulate migration by sea is funding practices that violate human rights, according to a global watchdog report published Wednesday. – Associated Press
Middle East & North Africa
The killing of an American-Israeli hostage has added new urgency to the White House’s attempt to halt the fighting in Gaza with an updated final proposal designed to get Israel and Hamas to reach a cease-fire agreement. But administration officials acknowledge this proposal might not be the last, particularly with seven American citizens still among the Hamas-held hostages. – Wall Street Journal
The White House is scrambling to put forward a new proposal for a Gaza ceasefire and the release of hostages by Hamas in the coming days, two U.S. officials, two Egyptian security sources and an official with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The new proposal aims to work out the major sticking points behind a months-long impasse in talks mediated by the United States, Qatar and Egypt seeking a truce in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the U.S. officials said. – Reuters
Coca-Cola and rival PepsiCo spent hundreds of millions of dollars over decades building demand for their soft drinks in Muslim-majority countries including Egypt to Pakistan. Now, both face a challenge from local sodas in those countries due to consumer boycotts that target the globe-straddling brands as symbols of America, and by extension Israel, at a time of war in Gaza. – Reuters
Tunisia’s public prosecutor on Wednesday ordered the detention of presidential candidate Ayachi Zammel pending trial, the latest move in what critics call manoeuvres by President Kais Saied to remove rivals challenging his re-election bid. – Reuters
Iraq’s parliament is considering controversial legal changes that would give religious authorities more power over family law matters, a move that rights groups and opponents warn could open the door to the marriage of girls as young as 9. – Associated Press
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Wednesday set off for a diplomatic tour of the Middle East as efforts continue toward a deal between Israel and Hamas to end the Gaza war. – Agence France-Presse
The IDF arrested a suspect near the Syrian-Israeli border on Wednesday. The suspect approached a security zone area, leading the IDF to fire off some shots to try to distance him from the border. – Jerusalem Post
Elizabeth Dent and Grant Rumley write: Ultimately, both the United States and Saudi Arabia made the determination that persevering through this turbulent period was well worth the rewards of achieving more sustainable progress in the strategic partnership. Specifically, the offensive weapons ban worked in this instance because it was targeted at altering a specific behavior—in this case, ending the war in Yemen and preventing further civilian casualties. – Washington Institute
Korean Peninsula
South Korea says it has detected suspected trash-carrying balloons launched by North Korea, in the latest round of a Cold War-style psychological warfare between the war-divided rivals. – Associated Press
North Korea executed multiple government officials after extensive flooding in late July killed thousands in the country’s northern region, according to a TV Chosun report. – Bloomberg
In President Trump’s newly published “Save America,” a coffee-table picture book, he writes that the first of his three meetings with Kim Jong-un had shown that “real change is indeed possible” and that they had gotten “to know each other well in a confined period of time.” – New York Sun
China
Sun’s competing allegiances are the focus of a federal indictment that alleges she acted on orders from Beijing to influence New York state policy on China. – Wall Street Journal
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is using a three-day summit with African leaders this week to solidify political and economic ties with the continent, despite tensions over debt, several years of declining financing and broader concerns over China’s economy. – Wall Street Journal
China’s top spy agency has warned students with access to sensitive data to be wary of “handsome men and beautiful women” who could fake feelings to lure them into spying for foreign entities, compromising national security. – Reuters
Police in China have detained five current and former employees of British drugmaker AstraZeneca Plc for questioning about potential illegal activities, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg
Editorial: The federal charges against Ms. Sun include violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act, or FARA. Enforcement of this law has been inconstant, but if the allegations in the indictment are true, this case looks warranted. Kudos to the feds for their continued work to uncover Chinese influence. The message for Albany and other state capitals is to be on guard for Chinese bearing gifts. – Wall Street Journal
Liana Fix and Heidi Crebo-Rediker write: And the possibility that former U.S. President Donald Trump could return to the White House should encourage Europeans to act now and not use China as a hedge against potential aggressive U.S. trade actions toward Europe. Europeans will find it very difficult to explain to a second Trump administration why the United States should support Ukraine and European security if they themselves are unable to mount a strong response to China’s efforts to undermine both. It is in Europe’s deepest self-interest to act now. – Foreign Affairs
Bryan Burack writes: Concerns that assertive U.S. economic statecraft could jeopardize military deterrence are understandable, particularly given well-founded concerns about the increasingly tenuous military balance, a chronic under prioritization of the Indo-Pacific region, and the hollowing out of our defense-industrial base. These are legitimate national security emergencies, and there is no substitute for hard power. But China’s unfettered access to U.S. capital and technology only exacerbates these problems. The Trump administration’s economic policies towards China contributed to deterrence, and should be continued. – The Heritage Foundation
South Asia
Some had clung to the hope that the authorities might still reverse the most severe limitations, after Taliban officials suggested that high schools and universities would eventually reopen for women after they were shuttered. For many women, that hope is now dashed. – New York Times
India and Singapore signed memorandums of understanding for cooperation in semiconductors, digital technologies, skill development and healthcare during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the city-state, foreign ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters
Shahidul Alam writes: Only time will determine whether the blood spilled on Bangladeshi streets this summer will result in lasting change or whether it will simply be a seasonal shift, a monsoon that disappears with the movement of the sun. – Washington Post
Syed Mohammad Ali writes: Conversely, morality is hardly a compelling force when it comes to furthering national interests. Thus, if ongoing efforts to broker a meaningful cessation of hostilities bear fruit, and the major Gulf countries assume a prominent role in reconstruction efforts in the war-torn Palestinian territories, the Pakistani establishment may also decide to reassess its position concerning Israel once again. – Middle East Institute
Trevor Sutton and Arunabha Ghosh write: Elements of a U.S.-Indian green trade agenda could be expanded to include other countries or even adopted in a multilateral setting. As the influence of global trade rules and institutions wanes and climate-related trade measures proposed by the West are attracting fierce criticism from the global South, expanded green trade cooperation between New Delhi and Washington would send a strong message that developed and developing countries can work together to prosper. – Foreign Affairs
Asia
Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Wednesday it was monitoring Chinese landing drills taking place in a province that lies opposite the island on the other side of the Taiwan Strait, where previous such exercises have taken place. – Reuters
The top U.S. envoy to Taiwan on Wednesday said American support for the island is “rock-solid, principled, and bipartisan,” and said Washington will continue to follow through on its commitments to ensure the island can defend itself against threats from China. – Associated Press
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Thursday the country will not stop its oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea despite claims by Beijing that Malaysia was infringing on its territory. – Reuters
Malaysia’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday it would file a police report and carry out an internal investigation into the leak of a classified diplomatic note sent by China’s foreign ministry to the Malaysian embassy in Beijing in February. – Reuters
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim praised President Vladimir Putin for steering Russia’s development and pledged to deepen ties, saying there was “enormous potential” to enhance regional trade relations already focused on semiconductors. – Bloomberg
The World Bank’s board has approved a $68 million programme to prevent Pacific Island nations from being cut off from the international financial system that underpins tourism, trade and aid flows, the lender’s President Ajay Banga said on Thursday. – Reuters
Emil Avdaliani writes: Taken together, this may amount to much more than flirting with the West’s rivals. Firstly, as mentioned, the West relies on Azeri energy and Georgian trade routes for Central Asian energy supplies. In other words, there is room for relations to deteriorate if relations worsen. Secondly, the South Caucasus has grown geopolitically congested. There remains the long-standing Western-Russia competition prevalent since the early 1990s, but now, too, other influential countries such as China, Iran, the Gulf states, and India are becoming involved. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Europe
Belarusian security forces have detained a suspected Japanese intelligence agent alleged to have observed border areas and military installations of the ex-Soviet state and Russian ally, Belarusian media reported on Wednesday. – Reuters
Germany’s migration commissioner proposed deporting to Rwanda migrants who arrive illegally to the European Union through its borders with Belarus, as Berlin contemplates measures to restrict refugees arriving in the bloc. – Reuters
The European Union is falling behind global rivals due to limited innovation, high energy prices and skills gaps, former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi told policymakers on Wednesday ahead of his much-anticipated report on the topic. – Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he intended to discuss a gas supply contract with Serbia that expires in March 2025 with Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin. – Reuters
The European Union’s top migration official expressed concern on Wednesday about a Hungarian work visa program open to citizens from Russia and Belarus, just as sabotage attacks and spying allegations raise alarm across Europe. – Associated Press
Tom Rogan writes: The solution may be simple: an increasing U.S. reprioritization away from the traditional U.S.-EU bloc relationship toward closer bilateral relationships or small group relationships with European states such as the Baltics, Poland, Finland, and the U.K. But the status quo is plainly unsustainable. – Washington Examiner
Doug Livermore writes: Meanwhile, the Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — have focused on mine warfare, both to block potential Russian naval breakouts into the North Sea and to keep vital maritime routes open for NATO reinforcements to respond to any land invasion. The recent addition of Sweden and Finland’s highly-capable air forces and access to their airfields has dramatically increased NATO’s capacity and capabilities with which to mount aerial responses to Russian aggression. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Africa
Chinese leader Xi Jinping Thursday pledged $50 billion in loans, aid and investment for Africa over the next three years, and the creation of 1 million jobs, as he laid out a plan to expand Beijing’s already extensive political, military and economic ties with the continent. – Washington Post
A China-Africa summit in Beijing this week takes place as a continent slowly emerging from a series of defaults seeks to define its future cooperation with the Asian nation that partly fuelled its debt binge and now faces its own economic headwinds. – Reuters
African countries’ inadequate access to debt relief and scarce resources is a recipe for social unrest, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Thursday, proposing fresh reforms to the international financial architecture. – Reuters
Djibouti’s government expects Ethiopia to accept an offer for exclusive access to one of its ports, a proposal that’s aimed at defusing regional tensions triggered by Addis Ababa’s bid to regain direct access to the sea. – Bloomberg
The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday that South Africa needed to pursue ambitious fiscal consolidation to restore the sustainability of its public finances. – Reuters
Liberia conditionally lifted a shutdown order on China Union’s iron ore Bong Mines, the government said in a statement on Wednesday. – Reuters
Burkina Faso has launched new biometric passports without the logo of West Africa’s main political and economic bloc on their cover, further signalling its determination to withdraw from the regional alliance after military leaders took power in a coup. – Reuters
Haleigh Bartos and John Chin write: China and Russia are the major players in Sudan, with the former Sudan’s leading outside investor and the latter Sudan’s largest arms provider. Gulf rivals the UAE and Saudi Arabia are bolstering their influence. Iran has provided more modern and proficient drones to the SAF. Peace diplomacy will have to navigate these realities and manage outside influences carefully. – National Interest
The Americas
Venezuelan law enforcement authorities detained a U.S. Navy sailor last week while the service member was on personal travel, officials said Wednesday. – Washington Post
Biden administration officials are weighing whether to toughen an asylum ban to maintain lower levels of illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border since the ban went into effect in June, a U.S. Department of Homeland Security official familiar with the matter told Reuters. – Reuters
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Haiti on Thursday, a senior U.S. official said, as Washington seeks to solidify the U.N.-backed security mission in the Caribbean country that has been ravaged by gang violence. – Reuters
The U.S. is mulling a U.N. peacekeeping operation in Haiti as one way to secure funding and staffing for a Kenya-led mission deployed to quell gang violence in the Caribbean country, a top U.S. diplomat said Wednesday. – Associated Press
Latin America
Haiti has expanded its state of emergency to cover the entire nation’s territory, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Garry Conille said on Wednesday, as the Caribbean country battles violent gangs that have taken over much of the capital and started expanding into nearby regions. – Reuters
Colombia’s peace efforts will not bear fruit while the Andean country is divided by social and economic strata comparable to India’s caste system, a United Nations envoy said. – Reuters
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro on Wednesday asked the attorney general’s office to investigate the $11 million purchase of Pegasus spy software, which he said could have been used to spy on opposition politicians during the previous administration. – Reuters
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights urged El Salvador Wednesday to end the more than two-year state of emergency, which has suspended fundamental civil rights while the government pursued the country’s powerful street gangs. – Associated Press
North America
The lower house of Mexico’s Congress approved a radical reform of the judicial system on Wednesday — a constitutional amendment that has raised alarms in Washington and in the business community. – Washington Post
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada may be forced into an election earlier than expected after a left-leaning political party that had been propping up his government in Parliament announced on Wednesday that it was abandoning the arrangement. – New York Times
Despite her well-paying tech job, Li Daijing didn’t hesitate when her cousin asked for help running a restaurant in Mexico City. She packed up and left China for the Mexican capital last year, with dreams of a new adventure. – Associated Press
Cybersecurity
The United States on Wednesday announced a broad effort to push back on Russian influence campaigns in the 2024 election, as it tries to curb the Kremlin’s use of state-run media and fake news sites to sway American voters. The actions include sanctions, indictments and seizing of web domains that U.S. officials say the Kremlin uses to spread propaganda and disinformation about Ukraine. – New York Times
Australia’s centre-left government said on Thursday it planned to introduce targeted artificial intelligence rules including human intervention and transparency amid a rapid rollout of AI tools by businesses and in everyday life. – Reuters
Politically motivated hackers linked to Russia and Belarus are targeting Latvian government and critical infrastructure websites in a new wave of cyberattacks, according to Latvian cybersecurity officials. – The Record
Trisalyn Nelson writes: It will matter who builds the AI. To be unbiased, we need diverse participation in the development and deployment of AI rules. But conversations focused on rules mean we can collectively make goals and rules that are fair and sensible and then let the chips fall where they may. We have certainly seen examples of how AI can interfere with democracy. If used with the right intention, it may also be able to guide us toward it. – The Hill
Mark Temnycky writes: While the government and its agencies can act, so too can individual citizens. Many platforms now offer forums where users can submit posts for review and removal. Similarly, users can contest material on some sites. Whatever the partisan debates of election periods, everyone can agree that American citizens alone, not the Russians, should be the only ones to elect the next leader of the United States. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Defense
As China and Russia build arsenals of weapons that could target American military and civilian satellites, those threats are growing, and Agrawal’s unit is part of a relatively new military branch that is quietly preparing for a new era of warfare. With 15,000 military and civilian personnel, and an annual budget of about $30 billion, Space Force is far smaller and less well known than any other branch of the military services. – Wall Street Journal
Porter Smith and Nathan Mintz write: We aren’t the only ones watching Ukraine. China moves at the speed of war, while the U.S. moves at the speed of bureaucracy. If we retool our approach to electronic warfare, America will tip the scales in favor of deterrence and, if necessary, victory. If not, we will be subject to the harsh lessons inevitably faced by those who fight the last war. – Wall Street Journal
James Stavridis writes: Tunnel warfare is terrifying, and preparing for more of it will unfortunately be a crucial element of the 21st century battlefield. Submarines first became high-level predators in World War I because of their ability to dive below the waves and surface to gather intelligence and kill. Terrorists and rogue states are increasingly going to be thinking about how to do the same from beneath the surface of the earth. – Bloomberg
Long War
Twelve Syrian soldiers were killed on Wednesday by an Al-Qaeda linked group in northwest Syria, according to a war monitoring organization, the highest such death toll in the region this year. – Agence France-Presse
IAF aircraft targeted armed terrorists in three separate strikes on Thursday, eliminating five terrorists, including the son of the terrorist Zakaria Zubeidi, according to multiple Palestinian reports, including the Palestinian Red Crescent. – Jerusalem Post
R. Maxwell Bone writes: The current responses of these three governments to the rise of extremism fail to address the problem and, in some ways, exacerbate it. The rise of extremist groups in coastal West Africa has not occurred in a vacuum. While prospects for ending the raging conflicts in the Sahel are limited, the neighboring coastal countries of Ghana, Benin, and Togo can work to reduce threats of extremism within their own borders. – Foreign Policy