Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Israeli government said on Thursday that it had decided to release five Lebanese prisoners, in what would be a rare sign of progress amid struggling negotiations between Lebanon and Israel. – New York Times

Israel is swiftly rebuilding its political and defense partnership with Colombia, the latest Latin American nation to swing back toward the Jewish state even as it faces growing diplomatic isolation elsewhere. – Bloomberg

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel’s “central mission” is to topple the Iranian regime, asserting that the goal was “within reach.” – Times of Israel

Editorial: With a little under two months until the October 27 election, parties asking Israelis to trust them with national security should be expected to address this side of it as well. They should explain who will hold binding responsibility for civilian preparedness, which deficiencies have been corrected, what deadlines remain, and how weaker municipalities will be brought up to standard. The desalination disruption should not be forgotten when the last plant returns to operation. Israel’s strength is measured not only by whether it can strike its enemies or intercept their weapons, but by whether ordinary life can continue under pressure. – Jerusalem Post

Danny Danon writes: The Jerusalem Municipality is now turning this building into a new school for east Jerusalem. Instead of a facility associated with incitement and extremism, Israel is investing in an institution that will offer hundreds of children in the neighborhood the opportunity for a better future. Soon, children in east Jerusalem will attend a quality educational institution that is part of Israel’s education system. They will be taught respect, tolerance, science, and history. UNRWA belongs in the past. Our focus is on building a better future. – Jerusalem Post

Amine Ayoub writes: Third, military force must compel Iran into war-ending negotiations on Western and Israeli terms, enforcing total proxy disarmament along Israeli borders and verifiable dismantlement of missile production. The normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may look like a victory on global commodity markets, but for Israel, it is a warning. Israel cannot allow Western energy market resilience to dictate the timeline of a war impacting national survival. Israeli leadership must compel its allies to choose between decisive strategic resolution and an endless war of attrition. – Ynet

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine is planning to step up the presence of its drones near Russian airports to compel their closure, while warning international airlines to re-evaluate the safety of flying there, as part of its effort to disrupt Russia’s economy and pressure Moscow to end the war. – Wall Street Journal

The Russian strikes tormenting Ukraine’s capital in recent days have had an ominous new feature: jet-powered drones. Significantly faster and harder to intercept than the propeller-driven drones that have stalked Ukraine’s skies for years, these munitions are stretching air defenses and stoking anxiety about what analysts and officials predict will be a dangerous new stage of the war. – New York Times

Members of Ukraine’s two foremost intelligence services clashed in the streets of Kyiv, as an interagency rivalry burst into the open to reveal a growing power struggle inside the country’s defense forces. – New York Times

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday there was a chance of reaching an agreement to end the war ​in Ukraine, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said U.S. negotiators trying to broker a deal would soon visit both Moscow and Kyiv. – Reuters

A Russia sanctions bill overwhelmingly passed by the Senate just last month faces mounting opposition in the US House and is likely stalled at least until the November election, amid worries that the measure would expand President Donald Trump’s tariff powers and drive up oil prices. – Bloomberg

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would meet with representatives of US President Donald Trump in the coming days and that the envoys would also travel to Russia, signaling a renewed effort to revive long-stalled talks. – Bloomberg

Russian aggression has reached “existential” and “reckless” levels for the European Union, Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin said Thursday, two days after Germany blamed Moscow for a failed drone attack at a Leipzig airport. – Bloomberg

Ukraine attacked a small service ship involved in planned repair works at the key CPC oil terminal in the Black Sea, a person with knowledge of the matter said. The facility is vital to Kazakstan’s crude exports. – Bloomberg

President Vladimir Putin said Russia and Ukraine maintain contacts even as he gave little sign that they’re making any progress on a peace deal. – Bloomberg

A scientific facility on a secluded island that is closed to the public is affiliated with an institute accused of developing biological weapons for the Russian military, RFE/RL’s Russian Service and Systema, RFE/RL’s Russian investigative unit, have found. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Ukraine’s top sanctions official says he remains optimistic about prospects for a sweeping Russia sanctions bill in the US Congress despite growing uncertainty over when the House of Representatives will take it up, as lawmakers face a sharply shortened legislative calendar ahead of the November midterm elections. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Marc A. Thiessen writes: Indeed, as part of a licensing deal, the United States could require that Ukraine provide a percentage of any interceptors it produces to NATO to replenish the stockpiles of allies that have depleted theirs to defend Ukraine. This would in turn allow the U.S. to keep more of its own interceptor production. That’s called a win-win-win. But even if Ukraine were permitted to begin production tomorrow, it needs more interceptors right now. To meet the urgent need, Trump should press South Korea to sell Ukraine its indigenous M-SAM II interceptor — a.k.a. the “Korean Patriot” — from its substantial domestic stockpile. – Washington Post

Hal Brands writes: All of this unfolds amid a Pentagon posture review that could bring significant US troop withdrawals from Europe, and which many European leaders fear will be used to punish countries that Trump dislikes. This week, amid a US-UK dispute over British defense spending, Trump confirmed that he is reviewing American support for Britain’s sovereignty over the Falkland Islands. This is the sort of gratuitous threat that only encourages Putin to perceive cleavages in the Western world. Transatlantic cohesion is essential when dangers are surging. Violent conflict is no longer confined to the continent’s eastern fringe. War, albeit of an ambiguous kind, has come for Europe itself. – Bloomberg

Alexandra Yatsyk writes: According to Kluge’s analysis of regional recruitment spending, Russia was still signing approximately 1,000 contract soldiers per day as of August, a figure slightly below last year’s level but broadly consistent with a longer-term downward trend that has persisted since late 2024. Kluge suggests that this data may indicate the pressure for a new mobilization round is somewhat less acute than it appeared earlier in the year, though he maintains that such a scenario remains plausible. His cautious assessment, however, remains a minority view in the West. Russia continues to exhibit indications of an impending mobilization and of the Kremlin’s readiness to further escalate the military conflict — not only with Ukraine, but with Europe and NATO more broadly. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Sofia Slonovska and Benjamin Schmitt write: Europe is already moving in that direction. EU GOVSATCOM became operational in 2026, giving EU governments access to shared secure satellite communications. The EU is also deploying IRIS², a planned 348-satellite network, to provide its own secure connectivity. Ukraine should seek the closest possible integration with this emerging European communications system, while bolstering its own resilient military communications. Rassvet will undoubtedly continue to be developed and deployed by Russia and thus will probably not disappear. So, the goal should instead be to keep it intermittent, expensive, vulnerable, and difficult to scale for as long as possible, while ensuring that Ukraine and Europe possess resilient satellite communications that do not depend on an adversary’s technology or a single company’s permission. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Raphael Parens writes: Policymakers in Washington and Paris should recognize the Russian weakness in Mali and prepare for a potential opening. Another major attack on Bamako, particularly on the airport or governmental buildings, could force Goïta’s hand against Russia. Likewise, another jarring defeat like Tinzaouaténe could see the Africa Corps evacuate on its own terms. Yet, a U.S. or Western approach should be prudent, lest it falls into the same security-for-resources trap that ensnared Russia. Further, while Malian leaders appear open to a host of partners, this willingness will depend on a commitment to lethality — particularly against civilians — that the United States and France refused to offer in the past, and which drove Mali to pursue relations with Russia in the first place. – War on the Rocks

Lebanon

The Israeli military said on Thursday that it had cleared Hezbollah militants from two tunnels leading to a fortress strategically located beneath the hills of southern Lebanon and would “neutralize” the underground complex that it said had long been used by the Iran-backed group to launch attacks against Israel. – New York Times

Under an agreement reached this week, Israel is expected to release five Lebanese detainees, while the government in Beirut will search Lebanon for the remains of missing Jewish community leaders. – Ynet

It is now clear that something is not working in the mechanism that was supposed to bring calm to the northern border. The pilot program in southern Lebanon, designed to pave the way for Hezbollah’s disarmament south of the Litani River, an IDF withdrawal and the transfer of responsibility to the Lebanese army, is not progressing as expected. – Ynet

Middle East & North Africa

A remote-controlled drone attack targeted a fuel depot in Libya’s capital ​Tripoli on Thursday, causing minor damage, the ‌state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) said in a statement. – Reuters

Tunisia’s Cassation Court on Thursday upheld prison sentences of up to 45 years imposed on ​opposition leaders, lawyers and businessmen on charges of ‌conspiracy, their lawyers and families told Reuters. – Reuters

Syria has begun destroying the remnants of a clandestine Assad-era chemical weapons program that it recovered in May, the first such destruction in a decade, a ​Syrian envoy and a U.N. representative said on Thursday. – Reuters

Sabina Henneberg and Salma Annasse write: Meanwhile, the strategic issues of highest concern for the United States will almost certainly be insulated from parliamentary changes regardless of the election’s outcome. This includes the disputed Western Sahara region and Morocco’s commitment of troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, both of which are linked to Rabat’s 2020 resumption of ties with Israel. On paper, some parties may seem inimical to these U.S. interests—for instance, the PJD expressed support for Iran during the June 2025 war and invited a Hamas delegation to participate remotely in the party congress it held that April, while Benkirane has pledged to redouble the party’s backing for Palestine. Yet even if the PJD is somehow able to pull off an electoral surprise, it is unlikely to seriously challenge Morocco’s approach given that foreign policy sits in the sovereign domain directed by the monarchy. Indeed, it was under a PJD-led government that the kingdom resumed ties with Israel under the December 2020 tripartite declaration, over the objections of the party’s youth and religious wings. – Washington Institute

China

The Gwangju Biennale in South Korea, one of the most prominent art exhibitions in Asia, was engulfed by politics on Thursday as China announced a boycott of the event over a Taiwanese exhibition. – New York Times

President Xi Jinping of Communist China is so eager to sit down with President Trump at the White House on September 24 that he’s skipping the annual talkfest at the UN General Assembly. – New York Sun

Michael Schuman writes: Today, there’s nothing common about Xi Jinping. He has amassed greater personal power than any other Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, the Communist regime’s founder, who died half a century ago. To justify his outsize role in China’s government, Xi’s tireless propagandists portray him as something grander than a party boss: a philosopher king, whose doctrine of wisdom, called Xi Jinping Thought, is meant to be both studied and obeyed. He is the great global statesman, guiding foreign policy into a new era of peace and prosperity. His various “global initiatives” outline his vision for a reformed world order. – The Atlantic

Henry Tugendhat and Grant Rumley write: This dynamic may ultimately benefit Iran. If the U.S. is unwilling or unable to bring to bear serious, concerted economic pressure on Iran’s chief economic lifeline, it will have to hope that its continued blockade of Iranian ports and military pressure is enough—despite decades of Iranian resilience to this kind of pressure. The U.S. seems to recognize that squeezing Iran depends on squeezing China. But so long as the Trump administration would rather avoid another trade war and another rare earths embargo, that squeeze will remain at best a half-hearted one. – Foreign Policy

Asia

Japan will continue to seek a balance between fiscal sustainability and economic growth, the country’s finance minister said, even as ministries submitted record budget requests of nearly $918 billion. – Wall Street Journal

Vietnam’s leader To Lam is planning to visit Russia, France, the United States and Canada ‌this month, several people familiar with the plans said, as the Communist-ruled country seeks to deepen ties with major partners to combat trade uncertainty hanging over its export-reliant economy. – Reuters

Taiwan Foreign Minister ​Lin Chia-lung condemned China’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy at this week’s forum of Pacific Islands leader, ‌and said Chinese officials had also engaged in espionage at the event. – Reuters

Australian disaster response specialists left for Nepal on Friday to join the search for survivors after the catastrophic Himalayan floods, as the government expressed “serious ​concerns” for the welfare of its 36 missing citizens. – Reuters

Several air traffic controllers on duty when two Qantas aircraft nearly collided at Sydney airport in July had been flagged as facing a high risk of fatigue, ​according to internal records and a call recording obtained by Reuters, a staffing situation one shift manager described as “a bit insane”. – Reuters

Pacific Island leaders expressed concern about China’s Pacific missile test at their annual ‌summit, though Nauru formally dissented, in a meeting largely overshadowed by Beijing’s objections to Taiwan’s presence. – Reuters

Malaysia’s jailed ex-premier Najib Razak won a court bid to halt bankruptcy proceedings against him over 1.69 billion ringgit ($418 million) in alleged unpaid tax arrears, according to a report by The Edge. – Bloomberg

Japan needs to stand firm against US pressure as its close security ally challenges international norms and laws under President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda, according to a veteran Japanese lawmaker. – Bloomberg

A South Korean art exhibition will allow Taiwanese participants to use the designation “Taiwan Pavilion,” despite Chinese protests, marking a rare win for the island in its fight for international recognition. – Bloomberg

Holmes Liao and Dennis Blair write: After years of stagnation and decline, Taiwan’s defense spending is finally increasing. Taiwan’s proposed 2027 defense budget is likely to surpass three percent of GDP, and the legislature also passed a $25 billion special defense budget in May (a significant sum, albeit down from the $40 billion originally proposed by the executive branch). But Taiwan will not be more secure if these resources are spent on outdated defense concepts and a small number of vulnerable large warships. The country needs a dispersed, agile, and lethal force structure to defeat China in the Taiwan Strait. Such a navy will not look as impressive during a fleet review, but it will be a more effective deterrent against a potential Chinese invasion. – Foreign Affairs

Africa

Health officials battling the Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are using anonymised mobile-phone data to map population movements and identify areas where the virus could ​spread next, according to the World Health Organisation and researchers working with it. – Reuters

The initial public offering of Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, the largest on the continent, ​will open in the next 10 to 12 days, ‌owner Aliko Dangote said on Thursday. – Reuters

Nigeria ​could double investment into its energy sector within five years after joining the International Energy Agency, its ‌chief Fatih Birol said on Thursday, as nations seek partners they can “trust” after supply disruptions from the wars in Iran and Ukraine. – Reuters

Kenya President William Ruto said on Thursday he had ordered India’s ​Tata Chemicals to stop its operations in Kenya, saying ‌its presence had failed to benefit the country. – Reuters

Foreign weapons, military technology, fighters and logistical networks are helping sustain Sudan’s conflict and expanding the ‌warring parties’ ability to strike distant civilian areas with drones, a U.N. fact-finding mission said on Thursday. – Reuters

Michael Waltz and Massad Boulos write: Neither the RSF nor the SAF has any legitimate claim to govern Sudan when this war ends. Both have committed atrocities against the Sudanese people, and both have forfeited any suggestion that they possess political legitimacy. Sudan’s future cannot belong to whichever armed faction is left standing. It must come from a credible, independent civilian dialogue that gives the Sudanese people themselves—not the men with the most guns or the deadliest drones—a say over their future. The United States will not rubber-stamp another year of descension into hell. We and the world will note who stands with the Sudanese people and who stands against them. – Foreign Policy

Wesley Alexander Hill writes: Dismantling USAID and gutting American development institutions through DOGE were mistakes. Yet Washington can still salvage the strategic logic behind foreign assistance by creating a more geopolitically aligned “Department of Aid.” Such an institution would not need to outspend China everywhere. It would need to recognize where spending matters. Kenya shows why. China’s influence can wane without disappearing. African enthusiasm can decline while Chinese companies remain entrenched. Governments can renegotiate contracts with Beijing while dependency on China endures. Political relationships can cool while commercial ties deepen. Kenya may be able to renegotiate with China. Whether America can offer Kenya, or anyone else in Africa, meaningful alternatives that actually change the balance of power remains to be seen. – The National Interest

Latin America

With his poll numbers sinking, Argentina President Javier Milei is increasingly playing a long-trusted nationalist card: the country’s claim on the Falkland Islands, which Britain controls off the coast of the South American nation. – Wall Street Journal

Weeks before Brazil’s October election, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is running one of the country’s most cautious presidential campaigns in years as he tries to protect a razor-thin lead in the polls against right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, advisers close to his campaign told Reuters. – Reuters

The Brazilian government ​said on Thursday it ‌could take reciprocal measures against the ​European Union in ​case negotiations to reverse ⁠the bloc’s ban on ​animal products from ​the South American nation do not lead to “a ​satisfactory outcome.” – Reuters

Opposition to Bolivia’s $1.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program is gaining traction as civic groups, ​unions and business leaders increasingly link fuel shortages and diesel subsidy cuts to reforms they believe are tied to the ‌financing agreement. – Reuters

Venezuela is becoming a major testing ground for Donald Trump’s hemispheric ambitions, emerging as another potential source of rivalry with China. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

Alipay+’s proposal to link with India’s instant payments system for cross-border transactions has been stalled due to national security concerns ‌in New Delhi and questions about the storage and use of customer data, three sources familiar with the discussions said. – Reuters

OpenAI said on Thursday it would commit $1 billion in subsidized access to its AI cybersecurity tools, training and technical ​support for organizations that protect critical services, as concerns ‌grow over increasingly sophisticated AI-enabled cyberattacks. – Reuters

Cyber security experts are warning Congress that a changing counterintelligence threat from Communist China is troubling and America’s response has been inadequate. – New York Sun

A cybersecurity working group at the G7 is urging governments to accelerate defenses against quantum computers that could break some existing forms of public key encryption. – Cyberscoop

Editorial: While building data centers won’t provide lifetime employment, many workers will be needed to run and maintain them, as well as the plants that power them. Politicians in both parties fret that AI will increase the concentration of wealth and leave rural communities behind. Folks in Richland who are prospering probably don’t see it that way. Data centers can help to spread prosperity without government intervention and income redistribution. Could that be the real reason America’s political class is turning against them? – Wall Street Journal

Henry M. Paulson Jr. and Robert E. Rubin write: The recurring error in markets is not failing to see a risk. It is assuming a risk is small when it may be large. We believe the same troubling assumption is being made about frontier AI today. There is no easy solution to the challenges posed by AI, but accepting the status quo is tantamount to doing nothing — and doing nothing is not an option. We cannot give in to fear and hopelessness. We must act. – Washington Post