Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The U.K.’s decision to bar the export of some weapons to Israel shows how even staunch Western allies are looking for ways to press Israel to end the war in Gaza without depriving the country of the weapons it needs to defend itself. – Wall Street Journal

The killing of an American-Israeli hostage has added new urgency to the White House’s attempt to halt the fighting in Gaza with an updated final proposal designed to get Israel and Hamas to reach a cease-fire agreement. – Wall Street Journal 

Hamas’s threat to execute more hostages if Israel tries further rescues is a double-edged sword for the Palestinian militant group, which wants to increase pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a cease-fire, but risks costing itself one of its most valuable bargaining chips. – Wall Street Journal 

As he fights for his political survival, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence on keeping troops on a narrow strip of land along the Gaza-Egypt border has become the main obstacle to a cease-fire and hostage-release agreement with Hamas, according to current and former officials from mediating countries. – Washington Post

U.S. officials unsealed charges Tuesday against senior Hamas leaders, accusing them of conspiring to provide material support to a terrorist organization, conspiring to murder Americans and conspiring to use weapons of mass destruction. – Washington Post

Israeli forces killed at least 35 Palestinians across Gaza on Tuesday as they battled Hamas-led militants, Palestinian officials said, but brief pauses in fighting allowed medics to conduct a third day of polio vaccinations for children. – Reuters

The United States announced criminal charges on Tuesday against Hamas’ top leaders over their roles in planning, supporting and perpetrating the deadly Oct. 7 attack in southern Israel. – Reuters

Patience is running out among United Nations Security Council members and the 15-member body will likely consider taking action if a ceasefire cannot soon be brokered between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Slovenia’s U.N. envoy – council president for September – said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The killing by Hamas militants of six hostages, whose bodies were recovered by Israeli troops over the weekend, underscores the urgency for a ceasefire deal in Gaza and release of the remaining captives, the White House said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Tuesday the 2025 state budget will feature steep spending cuts as the government tries to balance fiscal responsibility with a need to finance Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza. – Reuters

Israeli forces killed three people including a 16-year-old Palestinian girl in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday, the Palestinian Red Crescent said, as a major Israeli operation in the cities of Jenin and Tulkarm continued for a seventh day. – Reuters

Large protests continued in Tel Aviv, Israel, for a third consecutive night Tuesday as hundreds took to the streets to call on the government to reach a cease-fire deal that would bring home the remaining hostages held in Gaza. – Associated Press

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said he was operating to halt negotiations with Hamas in a Wednesday post on X/Twitter. – Jerusalem Post

The military on Tuesday confirmed reports that a Hamas Nukhba force company commander who led the invasion of Netiv Ha’asara on October 7 was killed in a recent airstrike in the Gaza Strip. – Times of Israel

Editorial: The UK’s decision to freeze arms sales to Israel is a grave mistake that must be reversed. It is a blow to the moral and strategic partnership between the two nations, and a gift to the enemies of democracy and freedom. Israel will continue its fight against Hamas with or without British arms, but the UK must decide whether it wants to stand with its ally or be swayed by the forces of appeasement and moral relativism. History will judge this decision, and the UK must ensure that it is on the right side of that judgment. – Jerusalem Post

Bret Stephens writes: It does not deserve a cease-fire so that it can regain its strength. It deserves the same ash heap of history on which, in our better moments, we deposited the Nazis, Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. There are bright people who say that what Israel ought to do now is cut a deal, recover its hostages, take a breather and start preparing for the next war, probably in Lebanon. Israelis should remember that wars will be worse, and come more often, to those who fail to win them. – New York Times

Michael J. Salamon and Louis Libin write: We are looking at this situation from a more global perspective and not getting distracted by the psychology and propaganda that feeds the terrorist’s tactics.Hamas will never stop taking hostages – it is part of their playbook. Let’s not lose sight of the fact that our current need is to defeat the terrors at our borders, not fracture our country or cause even worse collateral damage. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

Two Russian ballistic missiles hit a military institute and a hospital in a central Ukrainian city, killing 51 and injuring 271 in the deadliest strike this year, Ukrainian officials said. The attack in Poltava on Tuesday highlighted how a shortage of air-defense systems is leaving Ukraine vulnerable to Russian strikes. – Wall Street Journal 

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, offered to resign on Wednesday amid plans by President Volodymyr Zelensky to restructure his cabinet in the biggest shake-up since Russia invaded more than two years ago. – New York Times

Russia bombarded Ukraine early Wednesday, killing at least three people in Lviv, a city near the country’s western border with Poland, according to the local authorities. – New York Times

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that he had asked Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step up advocacy among Ukraine’s Western partners to allow strikes on military targets deep inside Russia. – Reuters

Washington’s escalation of the war in Ukraine and the actions of the “collective West” have made it necessary for Russia to revise its nuclear doctrine, Russian agencies cited Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying on Wednesday. – Reuters

U.N. nuclear agency chief Rafael Grossi, who is due to visit the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeast Ukraine on Wednesay, said the situation there was “very fragile” and the risk of a disaster remained.  Reuters

The IMF will become the first major international financial body to send its official mission to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Aleksei Mozhin, the IMF’s Russian executive director, told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

An adviser to the governor of the Bank of Russia has been tapped to represent her country on the International Monetary Fund’s executive board, even as she is under US sanctions. – Bloomberg

The Russian ambassador to Washington has blamed the death of a Ukrainian F-16 pilot on inadequate training provided by the United States. – Newsweek

Satellite imagery of the probable launch site for a nuclear missile that Vladimir Putin has said was “invincible” suggests Moscow is progressing toward deploying weapons there, an expert on Russia’s nuclear forces has told Newsweek. – Newsweek

Washington is close to a deal in which it will give Kyiv long-range cruise missiles that can strike deep into Russia, it has been reported – Newsweek

Russia and Malaysia will discuss collaboration in areas from aerospace to advanced technologies on Wednesday, as Anwar Ibrahim becomes the latest Asian leader to shrug off Western efforts to cast Vladimir Putin as an international pariah. – Bloomberg

Konstantin Sonin writes: There is a popular metaphor about World War I: the countries “sleepwalked” into a catastrophe that caused millions of deaths and erased whole countries from the map. Using this metaphor, Putin’s regime sleepwalked into a disastrous war against Ukraine. Now, in the war’s third year, Russia is still sleepwalking. The Kursk offensive, a demonstration of Ukrainian power and a harbinger of Putin’s war coming home, has not woken it up. – National Interest

Keith Johnson writes: “We are pressuring Russia with economic tools in the Arctic, which is a cost-effective means of pursuing our goals. Russia’s icebreaker fleet is all about energy exports to Asia,” Pincus said. “That’s why the sanctions are smart. If we can sustain them, and the Russian Arctic oil and gas reserves and facilities become stranded assets, then what is the Arctic to Russia? That could end up starving the NSR.” – Foreign Policy

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon’s former central-bank governor was arrested Tuesday in Beirut on embezzlement charges, as the political establishment looks to head off new international sanctions that could further cripple the economy. – Wall Street Journal 

The U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee subpoenaed Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday, saying he had refused to appear before the panel to testify on the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021.- Reuters

Libya’s two legislative bodies agreed on Tuesday to appoint jointly a central bank governor, potentially defusing a battle for control of the country’s oil revenue that has slashed production. – Reuters

Jordan’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday welcomed Britain’s decision to suspend some of its export licenses for weapons to Israel, calling the move an important step to protect civilians, reported the Xinhua news agency. – Arutz Sheva

China

Chinese government-backed trolls are targeting U.S. voters ahead of the 2024 presidential election, assuming fake identities of politically engaged voters on social media to promote divisive narratives around issues including gun control, racial inequality and the Israel-Hamas war, according to new research.  – Wall Street Journal

Leaders and senior officials from 50 African nations are gathering in Beijing on Wednesday for a three-day summit hosted by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, part of China’s decades-long effort to be seen as a champion for the developing world. – Washington Post

The United States will send Michael Chase, the deputy assistant secretary of defence for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, to China’s top annual security forum in mid-September, a U.S. official told Reuters. – Reuters

The hostilities between China and the Philippines continue to draw global attention though other Asian countries also stake claims on the resource-rich seas. A new flashpoint has opened between the two nations recently — the Sabina Shoal — just weeks after Beijing and Manila agreed to ease tensions in another hot spot. – Bloomberg

As voters prepare to cast their ballots this fall, China has been making its own plans, cultivating networks of fake social media users designed to mimic Americans. Whoever or wherever he really is, Harlan is a small part of a larger effort by U.S. adversaries to use social media to influence and upend America’s political debate. – Associated Press

Sending three icebreakers into Arctic waters for the first time is “a clear signal” that Beijing is serious about pursuing its great power ambitions commercially, scientifically, diplomatically and militarily in the polar regions, the co-author of a study of China’s strategic goals said in an interview with USNI News. – USNI News

Asia

This is the complex reality awaiting Pope Francis as he begins a four-day trip to Indonesia on Tuesday, which will include an interfaith dialogue at the national mosque. There are many vibrant examples of how Christianity and Islam coexist in Indonesia — a dynamic that Francis wants to encourage — but at the same time, religious minorities face discrimination. – New York Times

Overseas investors aggressively withdrew from Asian tech stocks in August, as they turned pricey after their recent rally and doubts emerged about the profitability of AI investments. – Reuters

Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn has endorsed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s new cabinet, the Royal Gazette showed on Wednesday, with 12 new faces in the 36-member lineup of her coalition government. – Reuters

Lawrence J. Korb: With a revitalized Taiwan Patrol Force, the United States can conduct more frequent and more regular sea and air patrols through the straits. By stationing some personnel on the island, we would be better able to implement President Biden’s promise to defend Taiwan in case China tries to overthrow the government by force. – National Interest

Africa

Uganda’s top opposition figure, Bobi Wine, was shot in the leg by the police on Tuesday, his political party said, calling it an escalation of a government campaign of intimidation against a prominent critic who challenged the country’s autocratic leader in a run for the presidency in 2021. – New York Times

China, Tanzania and Zambia signed an initial agreement on a railway project aimed at improving the rail-sea intermodal transportation network in East Africa, Chinese state media said on Wednesday, – Reuters

China and South Africa, whose top leaders met in Beijing, agreed to promote balanced trade and discussed boosting two-way investments between their industrial and commercial communities, a joint statement on Tuesday showed. – Reuters

China needs to step up its financing for Angola if the African nation is to absorb more Chinese-made goods from solar panels to electric cars, Angola’s finance minister said on Tuesday, as the former OPEC member considers vying bids from Beijing and Europe. – Reuters

China vowed to encourage its more “powerful” companies to invest in Nigeria, which in turn said it was open to Chinese companies building factories and developing its energy and mineral resources, after the two nations’ leaders met in Beijing. – Reuters

A Nigerian court on Tuesday issued an arrest warrant for a British national and two Nigerians the police want to charge with treason and inciting the army following last month’s inflation protests. – Reuters

Botswana will hold a general election on Oct. 30, according to President Mokgweetsi Masisi, who will seek another term. The Botswana Democratic Party, which has governed the nation since it obtained independence from the United Kingdom in 1966, confirmed Masisi as its presidential at a congress this past weekend. – Bloomberg

One of the worst massacres in Burkina Faso’s history has provoked a fierce public outcry from victims’ relatives and religious leaders, piling pressure on the ruling junta of a country where spiralling insecurity has already stoked coups. – Reuters

North America

Haiti is facing critical delays in manpower and funding promised by countries across the world to help beat back gangs that have killed thousands of people and displaced hundreds of thousands more, Acting Prime Minister Garry Conille said in an interview. – Wall Street Journal

Investigators with Haiti’s anti-corruption agency donned caps and face masks on Tuesday as they stood behind boxes of evidence that accuse high-ranking government officials of crimes ranging from illicit enrichment to abuse of office. – Associated Press

Editorial: Under the USMCA, the U.S. can seek consultations to insist on the legal certainty and level playing field enshrined in the agreement. It can also make clear that without such guarantees the USMCA is at risk. The lack of an independent judiciary also violates other agreements Mexico has signed on human rights and labor and environmental protections—all of which the Biden Administration claims to value. Industry groups and investors are clamoring for help from the Administration, to little result. Perhaps Democrats are laying low ahead of the November election. In the meantime, trouble spreads on America’s doorstep. – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

Some of the most criticized names in the secretive business of selling high-end surveillance tools to government spies have continued to thrive despite international efforts to regulate the market, fresh research shows. – Washington Post

Artificial intelligence could hurt oil prices over the next decade by boosting supply by potentially reducing costs via improved logistics and increasing the amount of profitably recoverable resources, Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Hackers apparently breached the social media accounts of Lara and Tiffany Trump on Tuesday, distributing what the former president’s son said were two fake posts touting a family cryptocurrency venture. – Politico

Network operators should consider using the readily available options for protecting a crucial but vulnerable technology that routes internet traffic, the White House’s cybersecurity office said Tuesday, noting that some concerns stretch back 25 years. – The Record

Long War

Islamic State on Tuesday claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing in Afghanistan’s capital Kabul that killed six people a day earlier, saying it was in response to the revival by Taliban authorities of detention facilities at the high-security Bagram base. – Reuters

Suspected Boko Haram Islamist militants roared into a northeastern Nigerian village on motorcycles, opened fire on a market and set shops and homes ablaze, killing at least 37 people, according to a military official. – Reuters

One of the worst massacres in Burkina Faso’s history has provoked a fierce public outcry from victims’ relatives and religious leaders, piling pressure on the ruling junta of a country where spiralling insecurity has already stoked coups. – Reuters