Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, visited the United Arab Emirates over the weekend to meet with the Emirati president, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the two leaders’ offices confirmed on Monday. – New York Times

An Israeli airstrike killed Izz al-Din Al-Beik, the head of Hamas’ armed wing ​in the northern Gaza Strip, on Tuesday, Israeli and Palestinian officials said. Israeli ‌Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz said the Israeli military had targeted and killed Beik, who they said has been involved in planning ​attacks and recruiting militants. – Reuters

The IDF Intelligence Directorate has begun focusing on the “Libya corridor” and Turkey’s growing military and diplomatic influence in the region, based on a maritime economic agreement signed in 2019 between the Turkish government and Libya’s politically and militarily divided government, and has expanded over the past two years. – Jerusalem Post

Widespread public support in Israel for “encouraging the voluntary emigration” of Palestinians from Gaza risks undermining efforts to implement US President Donald Trump’s plan to rebuild the war-decimated enclave, an official from the Board of Peace told The Times of Israel. – Times of Israel

Editorial: The region has also noticed that there’s one country Iran fears to attack in this latest war: Israel. Instead the regime has picked on the Arabs, knowing those states are less able to defend themselves and retaliate effectively. Iran has even come to prefer to attack U.S. forces than to hit Israel directly. There’s a lesson on deterrence here for Mr. Trump, and Gulf Arab leaders are taking away from the experience that they can’t allow their countries to be such easy targets. Deepening ties with Israel, including in military and intelligence, is one way to change that. Then the U.S. could be the convener rather than the policeman. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: But at the U.N., Miliband met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, whose government has murdered tens of thousands of its own people. Miliband shook his hand, posed for pictures, and sat down for a conversation with the Iranian official. Miliband’s self-professed concern for human rights and terrorism is selective and sanctimonious hypocrisy. Those who boycotted Netanyahu’s speech would have benefited from staying in their seats. Israel didn’t commit genocide in Gaza — it prevented one, Netanyahu said. A nuclear Iran is a threat not only to Israel but to the world, he reminded them. And there is no equivalence between terrorists and the democratic nations that fight them. Some in the West have forgotten these truths. They will regret it. Decline is a choice. At the U.N., many doubled down on it. – Washington Examiner

Walter E. Block and James Delmore write: Palestinian statehood may be desirable for many reasons, but statehood alone would not make Palestinians free. Gaza demonstrates that a territory can be governed almost entirely by Palestinians and still be authoritarian, militarized, impoverished, and unsafe. The proper goal should be a Palestinian political order that protects speech, religion, property, political opposition, minorities, and the rule of law while renouncing terrorism and accepting peaceful coexistence with Israel. Without those conditions, creating a Palestinian state would risk producing not a free country but an authoritarian regime with international recognition — and a new war waiting to happen. – Washington Examiner

Russia and Ukraine

Black smoke choked Kyiv on Monday afternoon as waves of jet-powered Russian drones crashed into the city center, striking the National Academy of Sciences and a large, state-of-the-art medical center. – Washington Post

Russia’s war with Ukraine shows itself in many ways in North Ossetia, a remote mountainous region with a centuries-long history of furnishing soldiers for Moscow’s battles. – New York Times

Explosions were heard in the ​Ukrainian capital of Kyiv ‌early on Tuesday, a Reuters witness said, as ​Russia continues its near-daily ​attacks on the country ⁠in its fifth year ​of the war. – Reuters

Pope Leo said on Monday that ​negotiators seeking to end conflict in Europe must be willing to sacrifice some positions to achieve peace, as efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine continue ‌to fail. – Reuters

Ukraine’s military has used drones to deliver food and medicine to the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky, ​the governor of Ukraine’s Kherson region said, as officials ‌warn about a worsening humanitarian crisis. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Monday that Ukraine was paying the price for ​its own attacks on Russia in recent ‌months and would continue to do so as Moscow’s forces systematically strike different targets there. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Monday that arms control talks between Russia ​and the United States were long ‌overdue and that lengthy and careful negotiations would be needed when they did resume. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian assets of German retailer Metro AG placed under temporary administration. The step comes against a background of tension between Germany and Russia over the war in Ukraine. – Associated Press

Ukraine sees no positive signs that there could be a ceasefire covering grain exports via the Black Sea in the coming months, as strikes in the region have drastically cut the country’s ability to export products vital to global supplies. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Pressure like this isn’t meant to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to sue for peace. The object is more modest: to teach Moscow that escalation makes its position worse, not better. George F. Kennan understood this dynamic 80 years ago. In 1946, in what became known as the “long telegram,” he wrote that Soviet power was “highly sensitive to logic of force.” It usually withdrew, he observed, upon encountering strong resistance. Putin is probing again. The quickest route to eventual de-escalation is to convince him that he has finally found the point beyond which the West will not give way. – Washington Post

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has resumed exporting oil via its East-West pipeline after repairing damage caused by drone strikes, people familiar with the matter said Monday, restoring a crucial route around the Strait of Hormuz and dealing a blow to Iran. – Wall Street Journal

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid ​bin Salman has invited UAE Vice ‌President and Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan to visit Saudi ​Arabia on Tuesday, Saudi state media ​reported. – Reuters

Editorial: Legislators should continue to push for the Saudis to sign an Additional Protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency, allowing for expanded international inspections. Failing that, they should press the administration to work with the IAEA on expedited procedures to investigate any suspicions that the Saudis may be pursuing a hidden enrichment or weapons program. Perhaps most important, Congress should lay out severe consequences for such cheating — including asset freezes and cutting off access to other US technology. The administration should be commended for looking for ways to boost US nuclear exports. But that goal shouldn’t be pursued at any cost — and Congress should say so clearly. – Bloomberg

Korean Peninsula

The only two North Korean soldiers fighting with the Russians known to be captured by Ukrainian forces were quietly sent this month to South Korea. – Wall Street Journal

North Korea’s foreign ministry said ‌in a statement published by state media KCNA that the United States’ ​approval for South Korea’s building ​its first nuclear submarine is “a ⁠dangerous development” that added new ​instability to the political and military ​environment of the Asia-Pacific region. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on ​Monday there are more than 8,000 North Korean troops ‌on Russian territory and preparations are underway to deploy another 10,000 troops. – Reuters

South Korea’s military ​said on Monday that ‌it was “highly likely” that the blasts that seriously injured two ​South Korean soldiers in ​the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) at the ⁠border on September 21 ​were caused by a North ​Korean mine. – Reuters

South Asia

Opposition groups are demanding the ​resignation of India’s election chief Gyanesh Kumar over allegations of widespread voter-list manipulation during the verification ‌of the country’s one billion voters. – Reuters

India’s trade minister will hold talks with his counterparts in the United ​States over the next week to ‌advance a proposed deal between the two countries and finalise an interim agreement, the government said ​on Monday. – Reuters

Indian refiners expect Russian oil supplies to further tighten in October and November due to reduced exports and stiff competition from China, forcing the world’s third-largest ​crude importer to buy more costly alternatives for the rest of the ‌year, four trade sources said. – Reuters

Myanmar’s military-backed government has arrested 21 people it said had transferred money to an online fundraising platform linked ​to the opposition National Unity Government (NUG), the state-run ‌Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper reported. – Reuters

Dozens of people were killed in a Myanmar military airstrike on Monday near a market in the country’s ​war-torn Rakhine state, which borders Bangladesh, according to ‌a rebel group that controls the area and a local aid worker. – Reuters

Suspected militants riding motorcycles opened fire Monday on a vehicle carrying traffic police in the restive northwestern Pakistan, killing three officers and wounding three other people before fleeing the scene, police said. – Associated Press

Imran Khan’s son says he’s losing hope of ever seeing his father again, more than three years after the former Pakistani prime minister was put behind bars, according to an interview with CBC News. – Bloomberg

Europe

Andy Burnham has been Britain’s prime minister for 71 days, the victor of an intraparty coup that made him the country’s leader with no national campaign, no long list of promises and little explanation of how he would govern. – New York Times

Three Egyptian security officials were found guilty in absentia by an Italian court on Monday of kidnapping Giulio Regeni, an Italian doctoral student whose brutalized body was found on the outskirts of Cairo in 2016. – New York Times

Denmark is confident that NATO will maintain a heightened presence in Greenland and the broader ​Arctic region over the long term following a security ‌agreement with the United States signed last week, the Danish defence minister said on Monday. – Reuters

Attempts to form a new government in Sweden ‌hit the buffers on Monday after Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson said she was unable to secure enough support, despite the centre-left bloc winning a narrow majority in this month’s election. – Reuters

This month’s victories for far-right and far-left parties in German state elections have intensified official debate over whether security authorities can restrict secret information that might be passed on to Russia or criminal groups. – Reuters

Kosovo’s lawmakers on Monday unanimously condemned recent war crimes verdicts by a European Union-backed court against four of its wartime rebel leaders, a rare act of unity in a Balkan country locked in a political crisis. – Associated Press

As European capitals brace for US troop cuts, the Pentagon’s top policy official is telling lawmakers in Washington that allies are on board with a vision of “NATO 3.0” in which Europe maintains its own non-nuclear defense. – Bloomberg

Germany’s state governments are considering changing voting rules to prevent the country’s far-right party from blocking decisions if it takes control in an eastern state where it now dominates. – Bloomberg

Greece is spearheading a group of five EU countries pushing for migrants who have been denied the right to stay in the EU to be sent to countries such as Rwanda from as early as next year. – Politico

EU lawmakers are calling for the Commission to forbid European firms and banks from applying U.S. sanctions, as Washington weighs sanctioning the International Criminal Court over its actions concerning Israel. – Politico

Britain’s chief diplomat said Monday that the U.K. will not ditch its ban on directly engaging with Russian officials after Donald Trump invited Vladimir Putin to the G20 meeting in December. – Politico

Tom Rogan writes: Third, there seems to have been a screw-up somewhere along the way. Why didn’t MI5 or Counter-Terrorism police have an officer in the Gloucestershire Police control room to mitigate against the risk of calls from the public, for example? Fourth, authorities will continue to conduct intelligence operations related to this incident over the coming days. Future arrests are probable. While the ultimate culprit of this plot is unclear, Iran is the primary suspect. The country has had success in infiltrating terrorists onto U.K. soil, and has been involved in numerous serious attack plots against the U.K. over the past 18 months. – Washington Examiner

Filip Styczynski writes: The same applies to critical infrastructure and civilian preparedness. For Europe and Taiwan, the practical opportunity is therefore to treat their experiences as complementary rather than separate. Taiwan has spent decades learning how to live under pressure from a much larger authoritarian neighbor. Europe is now relearning how to prepare societies for sustained pressure from Russia. The value of cooperation may lie precisely in that difference: Taiwan can offer Europe lessons from a society that has lived with gray-zone pressure for decades, while European countries such as Finland and Poland can offer Taiwan their own experience with comprehensive security. – The National Interest

The Americas

Canada wants to become an energy superpower. If it has the will, there is a way. The country is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer and fifth-largest natural-gas producer. The oil-and-gas sector represents about a fifth of the country’s exports, making it the largest contributor, according to Statistics Canada. – Wall Street Journal

Since taking office, President Trump has become an electoral kingmaker in Latin America. Right-wing candidates aligned with Washington have won the past seven elections in the region, with Mr. Trump explicitly endorsing the winner in two of them. – New York Times

Colombia has held talks with the International Monetary ‌Fund in recent weeks, including discussions on possible financing, as the government races to contain a deepening fiscal crisis that has rattled investors, three sources with knowledge of the matter said on Monday. – Reuters

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday the US hopes Cuba will choose “a different path,” warning that those who ​believe they can wait out President Donald Trump’s administration will “learn the lesson ‌the hard way” if they do not change course. – Reuters

At least 11 people were killed on Monday in Haiti’s central Artibonite region by gang ​members after a deadly security operation, the local mayor ‌said. The attack is the latest reprisal against residents in areas contested by armed groups, particularly in the farming heartland of Artibonite. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

Pope Leo on Monday said concerns that artificial intelligence could destroy the world are not “fake news” ​and should be taken seriously, in an apparent rebuke of US President Donald ‌Trump. – Reuters

A Dutch man ​whose journey from cybercriminal to reformed security professional was widely covered in the international media has been arrested as part ‌of an investigation into the hacker group ShinyHunters, Dutch police and the man’s boss said on Monday. – Reuters

Republican state Attorney General James Uthmeier intensified his fight with OpenAI and its founder Sam Altman on Monday by asking a Florida court to stop the tech giant from further developing its artificial intelligence technology while their legal battle plays out. – Politico

The IRS needs better and more consistent data documentation for entries in its AI use case inventory, according to a Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration report published Monday. – Fedscoop

Several governments sent out urgent warnings this weekend about zero-day vulnerabilities impacting Citrix NetScaler application delivery controllers (ADC) and Gateway devices, which serve as front doors for users connecting to an organization’s environment. – The Record

Hackers stole personal data from a Polish healthcare software provider in the latest cyberattack to hit the country’s medical sector in recent months. – The Record

Editorial: Huang said AI should be granted “minimal rights” to ensure security. That might be a cheeky reference to philosophers and researchers who are debating whether sufficiently intelligent machines might someday acquire moral rights of their own. That idea, discussed with a seriousness that masks its silliness, is at best a distraction, one that threatens to push policy in potentially dangerous directions. The most urgent task is ensuring that AI agents have the minimum access rights necessary to perform their assigned tasks — and not one iota more. The machines don’t have to be trustworthy if the systems around them are. – Washington Post

Harry Krejsa and Phoebe Benich write: The grid at home, our allies on the battlefield and the cyberdefenses that might have to outrun A.I. all need every electron they can get, as securely as they can get it, with no regard for its politics. The administration is beginning to realize that national strength increasingly depends on a country’s ability to generate, store and direct electricity. If Mr. Trump’s grid emergency order is put in place with national security as its north star, the modern energy technologies capable of delivering these advantages should be central. Otherwise the government will undermine our best chance at a secure and abundant energy future. – New York Times