Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Biden administration is urgently pressing for Israel and Hezbollah to pause their escalating aerial attacks into and from Lebanon for 21 days, hoping to head off a full-scale ground war that appears increasingly likely, according to U.S. officials. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s military chief told troops that airstrikes against Hezbollah were in preparation for a potential ground invasion of Lebanon, after Israeli air defenses intercepted the militant group’s first attempted missile strike on Tel Aviv. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. military is not providing intelligence support to Israel for its operations in Lebanon, the Pentagon said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Israel returned the bodies on Wednesday of 88 Palestinians killed in its military offensive in the Gaza Strip, which the territory’s health ministry refused to bury before Israel discloses details about who they are and where it killed them. – Reuters

From the dais of the U.N. General Assembly just a year ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu triumphantly hailed a new peace he said would sweep through the Middle East. A year later, as he travels back to that same world stage, that vision is in tatters. – Associated Press

Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. aims to clinch contracts under the Philippines’ ambitious military upgrade that seeks to bolster the nation’s defenses in the disputed South China Sea. – Bloomberg

Israel won’t rest until the residents in the north can return safely to their homes, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday amid reports that the US was close to securing a ceasefire to the year-long constrained IDF-Hezbollah war. – Jerusalem Post

A drone launched from Iraq struck the Eilat port on Wednesday, causing damage and lightly wounding two people, the military and medics said. The Israel Defense Forces said that a second drone launched in the attack was intercepted by one of the Navy’s Sa’ar 5-class corvettes over the Red Sea. – Times of Israel

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that while Israel has a “real and legitimate problem” with the Hezbollah terror organization, the issue needs to be solved through diplomacy rather than war. – Times of Israel

The National Security Council issued a lengthy travel advisory Wednesday to Israelis planning to go abroad over the upcoming Jewish holiday period, warning of stepped-up attempts by Iran and its proxy terror groups to commit attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets. – Times of Israel

Editorial: We appreciate that the war could yet go south. All the greater Mr. Netanyahu’s courage and vision. He has spent decades warning of the Iranian threat. His warnings now appear prophetic as Israel strives to break Tehran’s “ring of fire.” He has faced down the most hostile and condescending critics — at the UN itself, the International Criminal Court, the editorial pages of the New York Times, and even supposed friends like Senator Schumer. None of it can occlude Mr. Netanyahu’s persistence and breathtaking courage. – New York Sun

Yair Kraus writes: The journey back home to the north has begun. The path we will tread has not been paved yet and will not always be clear, but now that we have begun to see the signs, we can believe it is not at a dead-end. There will be quite a few bumps until we get there but now we can finally dream and dare to envision our new life in the north. With or without help from the government, the north will blossom and heal with the fear we may be hurt again. – Ynet

Russia & Ukraine

Russia is making plans to attack Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned fellow world leaders at the United Nations on Wednesday, issuing a stark call for global leadership to help him attain peace as his country stares down a cold, dark winter with most of its energy infrastructure destroyed. – Washington Post

Russian President Vladimir Putin made a fresh nuclear threat against the West and Ukraine on Wednesday, indicating that any nation’s conventional attack on Russia that was supported by a nuclear power would be perceived as a joint attack. – Washington Post

The Ukrainian air force said on Wednesday it shot down 28 out of 32 drones and four out of eight missiles during an overnight Russian attack. – Reuters

U.S. actions to accelerate support for Ukraine will be announced on Thursday as part of an international effort to help the Ukrainians rebuild from the damage of Russia’s invasion, U.S. President Joe Biden said. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Wednesday dismissed efforts by China and Brazil to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, questioning why the pair were proposing an alternative to his own peace formula and warning: “You will not boost your power at Ukraine’s expense.” – Reuters

A Russian guided-bomb strike on Ukraine’s eastern town of Kramatorsk on Wednesday killed at least two people and injured 12 more, the Donetsk region governor said. – Reuters

Russia has established a weapons programme in China to develop and produce long-range attack drones for use in the war against Ukraine, according to two sources from a European intelligence agency and documents reviewed by Reuters. – Reuters

Russia said on Wednesday that a plan by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to force it to make peace was a “fatal mistake” that would have consequences for Kyiv. – Reuters

Russian lawmakers approved a bill aimed at widening the net for recruiting more people to the army in response to a deepening shortage of soldiers for President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine. – Bloomberg

Editorial: The Iran-Russia cooperation underscores the extent to which these regional powers are becoming a global menace. China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are working as a de facto axis, arming and assisting each other to threaten their neighbors and spread mayhem. […] The disorder is growing. Neither of the two presidential candidates has offered the American public a realistic vision of how to deal with this new reality. The vandals will continue to march until America wakes up. – Wall Street Journal

Anna Borshchevskaya writes: Accordingly, policymakers should provide Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to put Russia at an irreversible disadvantage. This is the only way to bring Moscow to the negotiating table in a favorable position—that is, with minimal leverage that Putin can exploit for future advantages. It is also the only way to ensure that Russia will not attack Ukraine again. Such an outcome would have the added benefit of deterring other adversaries, including Iran. – Washington Institute 

Turkey

Cyprus’ president said on Wednesday he was ready to immediately resume reunification talks over the ethnically divided island, urging regional rival Turkey to also engage in the effort. – Reuters

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s calls for talks with Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad are a long shot but meant to send a message of reconciliation in a region increasingly distracted by war, the head of Syria’s main opposition abroad said. – Reuters

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Wednesday that the international community must urgently implement a solution to stop Israel’s aggression, the Turkish presidency said, adding he had also voiced support for Lebanon. – Reuters

Greece and Turkey will explore whether they can start talks aimed at demarcating their maritime zones, Greece’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

New Zealand on Thursday reached a trade deal with the United Arab Emirates, which it said would unlock economic opportunities for exporters and boost supply chains with one of its most important trading partners in the Middle East. – Reuters

Iraq executed 21 people sentenced to death for terrorism on Wednesday at Nassiriya prison, two security sources told Reuters. – Reuters

A Tunisian court sentenced presidential candidate Ayachi Zammel to six months in prison on Wednesday on charges of falsifying documents, his lawyer told Reuters, the second prison sentence against him in a week, days before the presidential election. – Reuters

Delegates from divided Libya’s east and west have agreed on procedures, criteria and timelines for appointing a governor, deputy governor and board of directors for the country’s central bank, the United Nations Libya mission (UNSMIL) said on Wednesday in a statement. – Reuters

Families fleeing the escalating conflict in Lebanon poured into Syria in growing numbers on Wednesday, waiting for hours in heavy traffic to reach the relative safety of another war-torn country. – Associated Press

Michael Knights writes: Expanding the scope of the battle and taking it out of the Shiite camp gives it a national dimension, reduces the pressure-applied on Iranian-backed Shiite leaders, and makes it difficult for any of its parties, including the judiciary, to rely on any proposed settlement. […] The New Region reached out to two sources within Sudani’s office for comment but they did not offer any insight on the matter. – Washington Institute 

China

China’s commerce ministry has urged the U.S. to drop proposed restrictions on Chinese auto software and hardware, saying it will take the “necessary measures” to protect national companies. – Wall Street Journal

A Hong Kong court is due to sentence two former editors on Thursday who have been found guilty of sedition after publishing articles about the national security crackdown in the city under China – a ruling that has prompted an international outcry. – Reuters

China has launched an anti-discriminatory investigation against restrictive measures taken by Canada including additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, its commerce ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters

China is committed to de-escalating the situation in Ukraine and will not give up efforts to strive for peace, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a meeting with senior European Union official Josep Borrell in New York. – Reuters

Australia Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he would travel to China this week for talks with Chinese counterparts, the first such visit by an Australian Treasurer in seven years. – Reuters

Karishma Vaswani writes: Some obvious candidates include the UK, Vietnam and Indonesia, although the latter two depend on China for economic assistance. South Korea, which has flirted with being a member, could also be a possibility. The Quintet has a nice ring to it. The intensity of China’s actions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait will only continue, possibly with more assistance from Moscow. The Quad needs a plan of action, not just words. – Bloomberg

Asia

Taiwan prosecutors said on Thursday that they have so far questioned four people as witnesses in their investigation into a Taiwanese company linked to pagers that detonated last week in Lebanon in a deadly blow to Hezbollah. – Reuters

Japan’s Self Defense Force patrolled the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday for the first time in an attempt to send a message to China, the Yomiuri newspaper reported, citing multiple government sources. – Reuters

In the race to become Japan’s next leader, young contender Shinjiro Koizumi has positioned himself as a change candidate, but his veteran rivals Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi are the ones pushing policies that could rock the boat diplomatically. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden met Vietnam’s president To Lam for talks on Wednesday, aiming to deepen relations with the Southeast Asian country and manufacturing hub and counter its ties with China and Russia. – Reuters

The Philippines said on Wednesday its fisheries bureau aircraft was shadowed and approached by a Chinese navy helicopter while on patrol near the disputed Scarborough Shoal, in another face-off between two countries locked in a bitter row over territory. – Reuters

Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Thursday it had detected a surge of Chinese warplanes flying off its east, west and south coasts in what a security source said was China simulating attacks to prevent foreign forces helping during a conflict. – Reuters

Elon Musk’s SpaceX plans to invest $15 billion in Vietnam in the near future, the government of the Communist-run nation said on Thursday, which could help resolve a stalemate over the launch of its Starlink satellite services there. – Reuters

Indonesia has formally requested to join the Trans-Pacific trade pact to widen its export markets, its chief economic minister said on Wednesday, according to a report by state news agency Antara. – Reuters

Josh Rogin writes: Kishida has reshaped Japan’s role in the world, but this transformation cannot succeed in isolation. His message should serve as a wake-up call for U.S. policymakers. The region’s path to the future is being set now, and the United States cannot afford to be a bystander. We must match Japan’s boldness with an equally bold American commitment to Asia. – Washington Post

Alexander Tah-Ray Yui writes: While the theme of this year’s General Assembly meeting is leaving no one behind, the 23.5 million people of Taiwan continue to be left behind by the UN system. It is crucial that the UN live up to its principles of inclusion and fairness by repudiating China’s malign influence over the organization and allowing Taiwan’s meaningful participation. Taiwan has no shortage of expertise to offer the world. We just need to be given the opportunity. – The Hill

Africa

President Bassirou Diomaye Faye rocketed to international fame last March when he went from prison to president-elect of the West African nation of Senegal in 10 days, becoming the youngest elected leader on the continent. – New York Times

Plans by African governments to raise money on China’s domestic debt markets via so-called panda bonds could be undone by their heavy debt loads and a wider lack of market infrastructure, investors and analysts said. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday its executive board approved an arrangement of about $210 million for Liberia, with an immediate disbursement of about $8 million. – Reuters

Benin’s state prosecutor said on Wednesday a former sports minister and a prominent businessman have been detained on suspicion of plotting a coup. – Reuters

The United States will give a further $424 million in humanitarian help to the people of Sudan, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield announced on Wednesday. – Reuters

Pregnant women, mothers and newborn babies are dying at a shocking rate in Sudan’s South Darfur region and thousands of malnourished children are on the brink of starvation, medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Kenyan police out of uniform and with no official identification fired live rounds at demonstrators at the country’s parliament complex in Nairobi on June 25, Amnesty International said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Hundreds protested in front of Congo’s top court Wednesday to demand the release of political prisoners, including the country’s three most prominent opposition figures imprisoned on charges the opposition says are politically motivated. – Associated Press

Eswatini’s main opposition leader was poisoned in an assassination attempt, his party claimed Wednesday, putting renewed scrutiny on the southern African country that is one of the last remaining absolute monarchies and where authorities have for years moved to quash pro-democracy movements. – Associated Press

Nicholas Kristof writes: When Maqa has nightmares or cries in frustration or grief at lost parents or friends, Safaa comforts her. “I hug her,” she said. “And I explain, ‘This is life. Don’t cry.’”But this doesn’t have to be her life. It’s not inevitable that Sudanese endure massacres, mass rape and famine. May this exhausted teenager, hugging her sister and telling her not to cry, remind global leaders that they too can show some responsibility. – New York Times

United States

The Biden administration is divided over Israel’s military escalation against Hezbollah with some senior officials viewing it as a reckless bombardment likely to produce more deadly cycles of violence and others seeing it as a potentially effective means of degrading the Lebanese militant group and forcing it to back down. – Washington Post

Democrats and Republicans are stepping up pressure on the Biden administration to strengthen its stand on China’s oppression of its Uyghur minority but are using different tactics. – New York Times

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Wednesday an all-out war was possible in the Middle East but there was also the possibility of a settlement in Israel’s conflicts in Gaza and with the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. – Reuters

The Republican Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives demanded that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy “immediately fire” his ambassador to the United States on Wednesday, a day before Ukraine’s leader was due to visit the U.S. Congress. – Reuters

The Republican leaders of U.S. House of Representatives national security committees demanded on Wednesday that Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration release an unclassified version of its report on its strategy for the war in Ukraine. – Reuters

The Republican chair of the House of Representatives’ select committee on China said on Wednesday that the panel’s top priority is legislation restricting U.S. investment in China to stop investors from “funding our own demise.” – Reuters

Editorial: Xi will secure a major victory on the path toward the Chinese Communist Party’s goal of global domination. Yet Biden seems to pretend it isn’t happening. U.S. military operations near unjustly claimed Chinese reefs are rare and not conducted by the best U.S. warships. The U.S. Navy is nowhere to be seen as the Philippines struggles to defend its sovereign interests. Historians will not look back on Biden’s presidency as one of bold leadership, as he pretended to the U.N. – Washington Examiner

Elise Stefanik writes: The world is looking to the U.S. for moral leadership. As Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran and its terrorist proxies such as Hamas create a dangerous axis of evil that threatens the shared global commitment to peace, prosperity, and freedom, the U.S. must boldly defend our principles at every opportunity. As the largest financial contributor to the U.N., the U.S. must present the U.N. with a choice: reform this broken system and return it to the beacon of peace and freedom the world needs it to be, or continue down this antisemitic path without the support of American taxpayers. – Washington Examiner

Defense

In the remote Australian Outback, U.S. Marines carried supplies off two tilt-rotor Osprey aircraft that had just touched down. Soon after, they hauled giant fuel bladders into position and began connecting hoses and nozzles in the blazing sun. – Wall Street Journal

The Senate has confirmed a new commander of U.S. Army forces in the Pacific after Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville dropped his objections and allowed a quick vote on the nomination. – Associated Press

The Missile Defense Agency has picked Northrop Grumman as the sole contractor to continue development for the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) program, an effort to field an advanced missile that can destroy enemy hypersonic weapons. – DefenseScoop