Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

President Trump’s Board of Peace put out a new short-term plan on Wednesday to begin rebuilding the Gaza Strip, even as prior efforts have led to little progress on the ground. – New York Times

In early September, US officials in Jerusalem and Washington prepared a draft statement attributed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemning plans by the UK, France and Canada to block imports from Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. – Reuters

The son of Israel’s ambassador to the United States was gravely injured in a ramming attack in the occupied West Bank on Wednesday. – Associated Press

Israel’s electoral committee voted on Wednesday to disqualify a party representing Palestinians in Israel that could play a kingmaking role after next month’s elections, as well as two candidates. – Agence France-Presse

American defense technology company Ondas is continuing to expand its operations in Israel and has signed an agreement to acquire three defense technology businesses for a total of $56 million. – Jerusalem Post

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to use his upcoming address to the United Nations General Assembly to declare Qatar an enemy state, in a post on X/Twitter on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

French President Emmanuel Macron’s earlier comments on Hamas’s West Bank operations were a translation “misinterpretation,” a French diplomatic source told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

The Israeli navy is moving toward becoming a semi-autonomous force and may eventually become nearly fully autonomous, the IDF said. – Jerusalem Post

A tunnel at least 25 meters deep that was still under excavation was uncovered in Qalqilya on Wednesday during an operation by Israel Police and Border Police officers, police said. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to arrive in the US on Thursday for an unusually brief visit centered on his address to the UN General Assembly, with plans to spend only about six hours on US soil before returning to Israel that same evening. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF announced on Wednesday that troops from the 228th Brigade, under the command of the 210th Division, completed their mission in the security zone in Syria and will be replaced by soldiers from the 2nd Brigade, while also announcing that the 98th Division Headquarters will operate in the West Bank. – Jerusalem Post

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar acknowledged that Israel currently finds itself in a diplomatic minority at the United Nations but rejected the characterization that there is a broad international “consensus” against Israel. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) killed Hamas Finance Department Chief Muhammad Abu Alwan in a joint operation in the Khan Yunis area of Gaza, Defense Minister Israel Katz announced in an X/Twitter post on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

Despite a tense but relatively stable security period, the Middle East is approaching the risk of a broader escalation as multiple flashpoints converge across the region, Israeli security officials told Walla on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

On the morning of October 7, 2023, between 60 and 80 Hamas terrorists overran the military’s Paga post on the border with the Gaza Strip, killing or wounding nearly all of the troops stationed there and abducting the bodies of two, which allowed nearby communities to also fall to the invaders with calamitous consequences. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Only Israel is subject by rule to a Human Rights Council agenda item at every regular session, plus an “open-ended Commission of Inquiry and a uniquely indefinite Special Rapporteur mandate.” That’s on top of the Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People, Division for Palestinian Rights, Information System on the Question of Palestine, and Unrwa, the forever refugee agency for Palestinians. The question is why the U.S. and other democracies finance this discrimination, which undermines the ability of all to fight terrorism. Until funding is conditioned on dismantling the U.N.’s special anti-Israel mechanisms, the political lynch mob will go on. – Wall Street Journal

Barton Swaim writes: The whole episode affords a dark reminder that Jew-hatred resides in high places. I’m not entirely convinced that the term genocide, coined in 1944, properly applies to more than one crime in history, the Holocaust, but Myanmar’s campaign against the Rohingyas might qualify to a reasonable person. Note, however, that the only reason it draws attention concerns what Israel might have done in Gaza, not what Hamas, with openly genocidal aims, actually did in Israel. If the ICJ changes the legal rules just to have a go at Israel, the Trump administration might usefully turn a critical eye to that court, too. – Wall Street Journal

Russia and Ukraine

The Trump administration has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to President Trump’s resort in Florida in December to attend the Group of 20 leaders meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday. – Wall Street Journal

Russian President Vladimir Putin cast an election that gave his party a historic majority in parliament as a vote of support for its fight in Ukraine, seeking to boost the morale of the military and public as Russian troops struggle on the front line and the economic toll rises. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine has transferred two North Korean prisoners of war to South Korea, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday in an address to the United Nations General Assembly. – Reuters

Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev is heading to the US on Wednesday, where he will meet ​with Trump administration representatives Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and others, ‌two sources familiar with preparations for the talks told Reuters. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned Moscow at the United Nations on Wednesday that ​Ukraine would strike back and make the coming winter deeply painful for Russia, if the two sides cannot agree a truce ‌on energy attacks before the cold sets in. – Reuters

Ukrainian staff sergeant Vitalii Tomchyshak believes he knows how to beat Russia on the battlefield: empower frontline leaders such as himself to make critical decisions. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Wednesday ahead of a planned meeting in New York between ​US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister ‌Sergey Lavrov that there were still no grounds for Ukraine peace talks to take place even though it remained open to such talks. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that British Prime Minister Andy Burnham had unwisely chosen ​to stir up anti-Russian sentiment in a ‌speech to the UN General Assembly in which he accused Russia of spreading lies and disinformation, something it ​said would do nothing to ease tensions in ​Europe. – Reuters

Russia pounded Kyiv with drone strikes on Wednesday, hitting railway infrastructure, warehouses ‌and fuel stations as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned the UN General Assembly a hard winter lay ahead. – Reuters

Editorial: Trump should make clear that unless Putin agrees to verifiable de-escalation, he will use a new law passed by Congress to impose 100% tariffs on nations that buy Russian energy supplies. Alongside sanctions on countries such as Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates, which act as bypass routes for Russia, and on Russia’s banking infrastructure, Trump can dramatically tighten the economic squeeze. Putin is a realist. Facing continued economic disintegration at home and the failure of Russian forces to break through Ukrainian lines, he can be made to see a diplomatic resolution to his war as preferable to the risks of political instability at home. Russian history is no friend to flailing leaders. – Washington Examiner

Ani Chkhikvadze writes: On my journey out of Ukraine, at the Kyiv train station, loud explosions echoed outside and delayed our departure by five hours. In an underpath, a young woman trembled with fear while rockets impacted nearby. Near the border, our group with four children pulled into a gas station just as a red alert signaled incoming ballistic missiles and attack drones. Reaching the Polish crossing only brought long, humiliating checkpoint delays that show the heavy isolation Ukrainians face while traveling abroad. Caught between political debates in Washington and Russian airstrikes, the people of Kyiv are bracing for a cold, hard winter. – Washington Examiner

Andrei Kolesnikov writes: There is no longer a clear way out for a country traumatized by war, befuddled by the propaganda of violence and the ideology of national superiority, and damaged by a distorted and increasingly dysfunctional war economy. The Putin regime’s greatest crisis is a crisis of the future. It doesn’t know where to go or why. And so it prolongs the war as a means of survival. The U.S. administration is trying to show Putin an off-ramp by dangling huge business deals or, if that status quo continues, threatening to impose “hellish” sanctions. But the most realistic scenario right now is that Putin will continue to stall for time, using winter as a weapon. – Foreign Affairs

Yemen

Yemen’s Houthi rebels, long backed by Iran, increasingly have a new source for the supplies they need to launch the attacks now rattling the global energy trade: China. – Wall Street Journal

It took Houthi rebels less than 48 hours to seize Yemen’s Red Sea coast from pro-government forces in a resounding blow to U.S. interests and Washington’s regional allies. – Associated Press

Yemeni factions fighting the Iran-backed Houthis are united mainly in one thing — their opposition to the rebels who control the country’s north and have recently advanced along its Red Sea coastline. – Associated Press

Mohammed Ayoob writes: Saudi-Zaydi relations are therefore a warning for those who seek to explain Middle Eastern politics solely through the lens of ancient sectarian antagonisms. Saudi Arabia once backed Zaydi royalists against Sunni-led republican Egypt; Iran now backs Zaydi Houthis despite profound doctrinal differences between Zaydism and Twelver Shiism. Neither alignment was ordained by theology. Both emerged from struggles over power, security, and regional order. In Yemen, as elsewhere, sectarian identity supplies symbols and solidarities, but geopolitics determines who is a friend—and who is a foe. – The National Interest

Middle East & North Africa

Mr. al-Sharaa has secured significant sanctions relief, extended his government’s authority across most of Syria and gained international acceptance among a broad spectrum of foreign leaders, including President Trump. – New York Times

Iraq has ​launched a tender ‌to sell Basrah Heavy oil ​through a ​ship-to-ship transfer near the ⁠Omani coast, ​outside the Strait ​of Hormuz, a tender document showed. – Reuters

The Authenticity and Modernity ​Party (PAM) won the ‌largest number of seats in ​Morocco’s legislative election ​on Wednesday, followed ⁠by its partners ​in the outgoing ​government, RNI, and the Istiqlal party, according ​to official ​preliminary results. – Reuters

A year ago, Wael Naouar stood on the deck of a ​boat at Sidi Bou Said port on Tunisia’s Mediterranean coast, waving to thousands of supporters before setting ‌off to try to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza by breaking Israel’s naval blockade. – Reuters

China

This summer, when the U.S. and Iran signed a temporary truce, China touted its role in easing tensions in the Middle East. It said its foreign ministry made dozens of calls to nudge peace along, and that President Xi Jinping himself had intervened with suggestions to end the fighting. – Wall Street Journal

Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary who is leading trade talks with China this week, said Wednesday in an interview on Fox News that the United States and China had agreed to extend a trade truce for two more months past a November deadline. – New York Times

Taiwan and human ​rights are “red lines” for China that cannot be crossed, the country’s ambassador to the US warned on Wednesday, striking a firm tone ahead ‌of this week’s leadership summit in Washington. – Reuters

A senior Chinese security official said joint law enforcement operations across Southeast Asia have successfully curbed the region’s multibillion dollar cybercrime crisis. – Bloomberg

Michael Schuman writes: Trump may laud Xi as a respected friend, as he did when the two men met in Beijing in May. Yet Xi is no friend of Trump’s. Throughout his 14 years in power, China’s president has acted deliberately and consistently to undermine the United States. His two-day trip to Washington now seems perfectly timed to exploit the weakness of his host and main strategic rival, lately enfeebled by rising domestic prices, plummeting approval ratings, and a costly ongoing war in Iran. – The Atlantic

Asia

The energy shock is unlikely to derail Asia-Pacific’s economic expansion as artificial-intelligence-related investment powers the region’s tech exports, S&P Global Ratings economists said. – Wall Street Journal

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev pardoned a French national jailed for espionage on ​Wednesday, a day after the EU lifted sanctions on Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov following what diplomats said was pressure from Baku. – Reuters

Cambodia’s prime minister said the country would not be a haven for transnational scam syndicates as he opened a global conference on cyberfraud on Wednesday, where the government is keen to showcase its crackdown on the multibillion-dollar scam industry. – Reuters

Taiwan’s government on Thursday thanked the US for its support and said it was maintaining communications ahead of a summit in Washington between President Donald Trump ​and China’s leader Xi Jinping. – Reuters

Taiwan has upgraded its maritime patrol capacity around the Pratas Islands in the disputed South China Sea, including regularly sending larger ships there, ​the government said, responding to an increase in Chinese activities. – Reuters

The Philippine Senate, sitting as an impeachment court, on Wednesday lowered the number of votes needed to ‌convict Vice President Sara Duterte, reducing the threshold prosecutors must clear to secure a guilty verdict. – Reuters

A man in the Australian city of Melbourne is accused of pledging allegiance to the Islamic State group and spreading thousands of pieces of extremist propaganda online over a period of years, the authorities said on Wednesday. – Associated Press

An ex-Taiwan Coast Guard Administration patrol vessel is now under a Philippine flag in the most significant maritime security development between Taipei and Manila in recent years. – USNI News

Africa

Tigray fighters attacked government positions and took control of three airports in northern Ethiopia days after pledging to overthrow the government, stoking fears that the African nation has slid back into civil war. – Washington Post

Ghana, which has led a campaign for reparations for the nearly four-century-long trans-Atlantic slave trade, said on Wednesday that support ​is growing among Western countries for the effort. – Reuters

Judges at the International Criminal Court convicted on Wednesday a former Seleka militia leader from the Central African Republic of crimes against humanity including torture. – Reuters

Sudan on Wednesday said it “upholds its national sovereignty” and called on Washington to engage positively with the African country’s government, pushing back ​on remarks by the US State Department calling into question its legitimacy. – Reuters

Hours after renewed fighting in Tigray shattered a four-year-old peace deal, Ethiopian President Taye Atske-Selassie Amde told the UN his country ​had exercised “immense restraint” and made progress with its neighbors despite foreign interference. – Reuters

Thousands of displaced people in Somalia’s southwest could experience famine between October and December ​if El Nino causes worse-than-expected flooding and humanitarian ‌aid remains insufficient, a global hunger monitor said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Somaliland and Israel should develop a military partnership that could include an Israeli presence in Somaliland in order to strengthen cooperation against Houthi terrorists, Ahmed Dirie, chairperson of the executive committee of the Israel and Somaliland Friendship Association and head of a visiting delegation, told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

North America

A mutually beneficial trade pact between Canada and the U.S. is still possible, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said, but his country won’t give up its freedom to strike deals with the European Union and other parts of the world as it seeks to diversify global connections and protect its national sovereignty. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S.-Canada relationship has imploded. But along the other, typically more contentious U.S. border, a partnership is blooming. In his second term, President Trump has made Mexico — once his favorite punching bag — now one of his closest and most important allies. – New York Times

The fourth round of trade talks between Mexico and the United States ​will not take place next week ‌and could instead be held in October, a senior Mexican official said on Wednesday, as the two ​countries juggle a shifting diplomatic calendar. – Reuters

Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader urged the United Nations on Wednesday to act in Haiti, calling for more troops, ​tighter arms enforcement and stronger backing for Haitian institutions as gang ‌violence deepens in his country’s crisis-hit neighbor. – Reuters

Editorial: Instead, something along the lines of the bloc’s arrangements with Switzerland is more likely: a vastly complicated, ever-shifting tangle of separate agreements, which EU officials often say should not be replicated. In which case, Canada had better moderate its ambitions and settle in for years (or decades) of talks. Speaking of years, Ottawa ought to bear one more thing in mind. The White House’s current devotion to tariffs and disdain for allies is, one hopes, temporary, while the logic of close economic integration between the two countries will remain compelling over the long term. A new trade deal with the EU may serve Canada’s interests — so long as it doesn’t complicate or, worst of all, foreclose restoring the US partnership when Washington finally comes to its senses. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

Artificial intelligence agents for OpenAI infiltrated a government-run public health care website in Australia in June and accessed nonpublic information, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Wednesday. – New York Times

Mr. Carney, who has clashed with Mr. Trump on trade and other issues, was at odds with the president again on A.I., siding with those urging caution first. – New York Times

Microsoft is planning to invest more than $10 billion across the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait between now and 2030, including in ​cloud and AI infrastructure, a senior executive said on Wednesday. – Reuters

AI-led investment is helping the global economy hold up marginally better than expected this year, but the ‌energy shock is becoming more entrenched, weighing on the outlook for 2027, the OECD said on Wednesday. – Reuters

New Zealand’s cyber security agency said China was the country’s most persistent and capable state-backed cyber threat, as foreign actors targeted government ​agencies and organisations in sectors including health, education and information technology. – Reuters

Nearly nine out of 10 federal civilian executive branch agencies failed to meet last summer’s deadline to implement cloud security directives from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, a watchdog report published Wednesday found. – CyberScoop

OpenAI and the Ukrainian government have agreed to a partnership that will provide AI tools and subsidized computing resources to better protect the nation’s critical infrastructure from cyberattacks. – CyberScoop

An Armenian national was sentenced to two years in U.S. federal prison after pleading guilty in July to charges related to multiple ransomware attacks. – The Record

Latvian police arrested a 23-year-old man suspected of hacking at least two companies, stealing personal information and attempting to extort money from the victims, authorities said Wednesday. – The Record

Peter C. Earle writes: Write the rules too early, and those unknown competitors inherit a regulatory structure designed around the firms that arrived before them. Electricity was dangerous. AI may be dangerous in ways considerably harder to manage. The next transformative technology will carry risks of its own, and some of its pioneers will likewise find themselves sitting across from legislators and explaining what must be done to keep people safe. But government has a tendency to close the door to competition behind those who got through it first. We should be particularly wary when it partners with first movers to design the lock. – Wall Street Journal

John Garnaut writes: The Communist Party’s obsession with gaining an advantage over the United States and prioritizing regime security leaves little room for agreement on the catastrophic risks of A.I. Mr. Trump, too, seems to feel strategic competition outweighs the danger of unchecked A.I. development, recently dismissing the need for regulation in public comments and on social media.Trump’s free-market attitude misses the larger contest taking shape. The race over A.I. is no longer only about technological superiority. It is also a contest over whose concepts of freedom, security and the role of the state become embedded in the powerful systems that are increasingly shaping how societies think, make decisions and wield power. – New York Times