Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. wasn’t happy about the Israeli strike on Hamas in Qatar, but moved ahead with a visit to Israel that will include meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Rubio said the U.S. wouldn’t reassess its support for Israel, but stressed that President Trump was unhappy about the strike. – Wall Street Journal

As Israeli war planners plotted a secret strike on Hamas political leaders in Qatar, they chose a plan that enabled them to attack quickly and limited the opportunity for the U.S. to object. The operation, which was carried out Tuesday, relied on warplanes that fired long range missiles, avoided the airspace of Arab countries and left the Trump administration in the dark until the last moments. – Wall Street Journal

When Israel announced Tuesday that it had launched a strike on senior Hamas leaders in Qatar, one security agency was notably missing from the official statements: the Mossad. – Washington Post

The United Nations General Assembly on Friday overwhelmingly voted to endorse a declaration outlining “tangible, timebound, and irreversible steps” towards a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians ahead of a meeting of world leaders. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Saturday that getting rid of Hamas chiefs living in Qatar would remove the main obstacle to releasing all hostages and ending the war in Gaza. – Reuters

Israeli strikes killed at least 40 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on Friday, local health authorities said, most of them in Gaza City, where many residents are staying put despite Israeli evacuation orders because they have nowhere safe to go. – Reuters

The United Arab Emirates on Friday said it had summoned the deputy Israeli ambassador over Israel’s attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s subsequent “hostile and unacceptable” remarks, in another sign of strain between the two countries with close economic and defence ties. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says he will be seeking answers from Israeli officials about how they see the way forward in Gaza following Israel’s attack on Hamas operatives in Qatar that has upended efforts to broker an end to the conflict. – Associated Press

Israel asserted on Sunday that, even as Hamas has urged Palestinians to stay put in Gaza City while the IDF calls on them to evacuate, several of the terror group’s leaders have submitted requests for themselves and their family members to be allowed to exit the Strip. – Times of Israel

Israeli troops sealed the West Bank homes of the two Palestinian terrorists who carried out a deadly shooting attack in Jerusalem last week, the Israel Defense Forces said Saturday, in anticipation of their planned demolition. – Times of Israel

Crowds assembled in Tel Aviv and across Israel on Saturday evening to demand that the government reach a ceasefire deal for the release of the 48 remaining hostages in Gaza, as the families denounced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for Tuesday’s strike targeting Hamas’s leadership in Qatar, which appears to have set back talks for a Gaza hostage-release and ceasefire deal. – Times of Israel

IDF soldiers discovered the bodies of terrorists and a cache of explosives buried in a grave within a tunnel during a targeted operation in Beit Hanun last week, the military said on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Hamas has begun moving some hostages above ground in the Gaza Strip in an attempt to hinder the IDF’s ground operations in Gaza City, Kan News reported Monday morning. – Jerusalem Post

The Israel Air Force (IAF) is examining investing billions of shekels to upgrade its F-16 aircraft “Barak,” The Jerusalem Post’s sister outlet, Walla, learned on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Hamas is expected to attempt to kidnap IDF soldiers as troops push into Gaza City, an action the terror organization considers a strategic achievement, officers in the IDF’s Southern Command estimate. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: After Sept. 11, 2001, the U.S. successfully pushed for Security Council Resolution 1373, which bars all U.N. members from harboring terrorists. “For a nation the size of Israel,” Joe Biden said after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre, “it was like 15 9/11s.” Israel didn’t help itself by previously lending legitimacy to Hamas’s presence in Qatar. But Doha didn’t complain nearly as much in June when Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. troops stationed in Qatar. Why now is the West and even the Trump team pretending it was a crime to strike Hamas’s head office? – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: The United States and Israel’s Western friends would do well to change their tune, back Israel’s actions, and start putting the pressure on Hamas and their interlocutors, Qatar. Israel’s actions last week, even if they didn’t achieve the goals that were set, were a clarion call that the Jewish state will no longer sit idly by while the leaders of a terrorist organization aimed at destroying it are walking free in a welcoming host country. – Jerusalem Post

Meir Ben-Shabbat and Asher Fredman write: By embracing a strategy that prioritizes real security concerns over wishful diplomacy and proactive intervention over reactive restraint, Israel is making itself stronger, not weaker. It can thrive only if its borders are secure, existential challenges on its periphery are removed, and its regional partnerships grow deeper. Even as Israel pursues peace, it must recognize the continued need for military action in the face of regional threats. As long as Israeli leaders continue to embrace this new paradigm, it will safeguard Israel and create the necessary conditions for a more stable and prosperous Middle East in the future. – Foreign Affairs

Russia and Ukraine

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has launched a new mission to bolster defenses on its eastern flank with Russia, the alliance’s chief announced, following this week’s incursion of Russian drones deep into Polish airspace. – Wall Street Journal

Since President Vladimir Putin’s invitation to Alaska by President Donald Trump, the Russian leader has ramped up attacks on Ukraine, threatened to kill any future foreign forces in Ukraine, hit Western targets in Ukraine and unleashed a drone incursion into Poland. – Washington Post

Ukraine is seizing on Russia’s brazen drone incursion into Polish airspace this week to urge NATO countries to bolster Ukraine’s strained air defenses, fearing that a newly threatened Europe may instead prioritize its own needs. – Washington Post

President Trump on Saturday set conditions for imposing new sanctions on Russia, saying he would do so only if all NATO member nations did the same and also stopped buying Russian oil and imposed steep tariffs on China. – New York Times

Despite some early media chatter about the pope helping broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, the Vatican is unlikely to act as a mediator in the search for a peace deal, Pope Leo XIV said in excerpts from an interview published Sunday. – New York Times

The European Union’s foreign policy chief on Sunday accused Moscow of “reckless escalation” after a Russian drone flew through Romania’s airspace, the second incursion over a NATO country in less than a week. – New York Times 

When President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration cracked down this summer on two anti-corruption agencies that had investigated his close associates, protesters mounted the first large street demonstrations in Ukraine during more than three years of war. – New York Times

When Russia introduced self-destructing drones from Iran into its war against Ukraine three years ago, Moscow made headlines around the world by launching 43 of them into Ukraine in a single strike. – New York Times

Ukraine may intentionally reduce the quality of mobile communications during Russian drone attacks to stop the networks being used to coordinate strikes, Chief of the General Staff Andriy Hnatov was quoted as saying on Sunday. – Reuters

Ukraine launched a large attack with at least 361 drones targeting Russia overnight, sparking a brief fire at the vast Kirishi oil refinery in Russia’s northwest, Russian officials said on Sunday, reporting no injuries. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Saturday said the incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace this week was unacceptable but that it remained unclear if Russia had deliberately sent the drones into Polish territory. – Reuters

Polish and allied aircraft were deployed to protect Polish airspace on Saturday because of a threat of drone strikes in neighbouring Ukraine, and the airport in the eastern Polish city of Lublin was closed, Polish authorities said. – Reuters

A Ukrainian drone attacked one of the buildings of the Smolensk nuclear power station in western Russia overnight, but it was downed and no damage or casualties were reported, a subsidiary of Russian nuclear corporation Rosatom said on Friday. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that many details on security guarantees for Ukraine were already on paper, adding that foreign troops on the ground would signal political support for Kyiv. – Reuters

Editorial: NATO itself has also stepped up. Secretary General Mark Rutte announced an operation dubbed Eastern Sentry, effective immediately. Denmark, France, Britain and Germany have committed fighter jets and other assets to securing the alliance’s entire eastern flank, including the Baltic states. Rutte called the incursions “reckless and unacceptable,” adding: “We can’t have Russian drones entering allied airspace.” The American president could be just as forthright. “The ability to get to the verge without getting into the war is the necessary art,” John Foster Dulles famously said. “If you cannot master it, you inevitably get into war.” – Washington Post

Kirill Gayvoronskiy writes: This drone strike on Poland is not a one-off. It is a warning shot. A test. If we let Putin cross into NATO territory without cost, he will not stop at drones. He will not stop at Ukraine. He will not stop until he has clawed back the Soviet empire and restored its glory as he views it. The choice before Europe is as stark as it is urgent: Act now in Ukraine, or wait for the day when Russian drones buzz not just over Lviv and Warsaw, but over Tallinn, Berlin, and beyond. The time to act is not tomorrow. It is today. – Jerusalem Post

Syria

The head of the U.S. military’s Central Command held talks Friday with Syria’s interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Damascus in a rare meeting between the new Syrian leader and a top U.S. military officer. – Associated Press

President Ahmed al-Sharaa said Friday that Syria was negotiating with Israel to reach a security agreement that would see Israel leave areas it occupied after the December overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. – Agence France-Presse

For a moment – perhaps only that – the guns have fallen silent in Sweida, the mountain enclave of Syria’s Druze minority. Reports trickled in that the Bedouin fighters, who had surged through the city’s outskirts, had begun to withdraw. A US envoy, speaking in that well-worn idiom of diplomacy that always manages to say nothing with poise, suggested that a deal was taking hold. – Jerusalem Post

Lebanon

The Lebanese army received weapons from PLO factions outside of Lebanon’s largest refugee camp on Saturday, a Palestinian official said, as part of a push by the government to disarm non-state groups. – Agence France-Presse

A Hezbollah operative was killed in an Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon on Friday evening, the military said on Saturday. – Agence France-Presse

French investigators have opened a corruption inquiry into former Lebanese prime minister Najib Mikati, lawyers who made the formal complaint said Sunday. – Agence France-Presse

Middle East & North Africa

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune appointed Sifi Ghrieb as the country’s new prime minister and Mourad Adjal as minister of energy and renewable energy in a cabinet reshuffle, a presidential statement said on Sunday. – Reuters

Iraq’s oil ministry signed a joint operation agreement with France’s TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy LNG and Iraq’s Basra Oil Company, the Iraqi prime minister’s office said on Sunday. – Reuters

The British Embassy in Cairo announced last week that it had temporarily closed its main building after Egyptian authorities removed concrete security barriers from the building’s exterior. – Jerusalem Post

Neville Teller writes: Here we are in 2025 with France’s current president organizing a broadly-based international conference seeking to rally international partners around the two-state solution, and positioning France at the forefront, by pledging to recognize the state of Palestine. The underlying reality, though, remains. Whatever the French leadership may believe, France is not a principal in the perennial Israel-Palestine issue. Its opinion, and therefore its influence, has historically counted for little. That remains as true in 2025 as it always has. – Jerusalem Post

China

So far, China has conceded little. Now, a crucial round of trade talks in Madrid is poised to reveal whether Beijing is finally ready to give some ground, or if it intends to press on with its delicate maneuver to secure a presidential visit by offering up as little as possible. – Wall Street Journal

The United States and China are close to reaching an agreement on the short-video app TikTok, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, as a second day of talks resumed in Madrid to try and resolve trade tension between the two countries. – Reuters

China will attempt to further boost its recent strategic diplomacy and power projection efforts as it hosts its annual security forum this week amid roiling regional tensions. – Reuters

China is intentionally mischaracterising World War Two-era documents to put pressure on and isolate Taiwan given those agreements made no determination of the island’s ultimate political status, the de facto U.S. embassy in Taipei said. – Reuters

China’s military said on Sunday it had conducted routine patrols in the South China Sea and warned the Philippines against any provocations. – Reuters

Hong Kong is in talks with several Chinese electric-vehicle makers to establish local EV manufacturing, according to people familiar with the matter, as the financial hub looks to advanced industries to diversify its ailing economy. – Bloomberg

Patricia M. Kim writes: The red carpet moment in Beijing was meant to unsettle Washington—and it should. It underscored how far the United States’ rivals have come in teaming up, even if their interests do not completely align. Yet China, Russia, and North Korea each still have reasons to deal with the United States. If Washington can resist the urge for improvised, optics-driven diplomacy; recognize its sources of leverage; and lean into its comparative strengths—its alliances, military power, economic influence, and diplomatic reach—it can shape the strategic environment instead of just reacting to it. – Foreign Affairs

Joel Wuthnow writes: Prevention, of course, can go only so far. The United States and Taiwan will still need to be prepared with a credible plan to prevent escalation if and when an incident occurs. What is alarming is that almost all public wargames are premised on an intentional use of force by Beijing, with little focus on how the United States and Taiwan should respond to a crisis triggered by accident. Improvisation, necessitated by a lack of preparation, would be more than dangerous. It could lead to another world-historic calamity of chance. – Foreign Affairs

Asia

Secretary of State Marco Rubio privately reassured a top Australian official that a deal to provide the U.S. ally with nuclear-powered submarines, which is under review by the Pentagon, will not be terminated, according to six people familiar with the matter. – Washington Post

Despite being one of the world’s staunchest China supporters, Cambodia is embracing President Donald Trump with a level of enthusiasm virtually unmatched in Asia. “The Trump way of operating is something that the Cambodian leadership understands,” said Virak Ou, head of Future Forum, a Phnom Penh-based think tank, citing Trump’s disregard for democratic processes. “This is the kind of leader they recognize.” – Washington Post

Australia and Papua New Guinea’s defense forces will be integrated under a new security pact that will be signed this week, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Monday, as his government attempts to curb China’s security influence in the region. – Associated Press

The Philippine defense and military chiefs rejected a call for the country’s armed forces to withdraw support from President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in response to public outrage over allegations of massive corruption in flood control projects that have implicated several congressmen and public works officials and sparked pockets of street protests. – Associated Press

An airstrike by Myanmar’s military on two private schools in a village in Myanmar has killed at least 18 people, most of them students, an armed group and local media reports said Friday. – Associated Press

Australia will spend A$12 billion ($8 billion) on a defense hub to build naval ships and dock nuclear submarines, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced Sunday, as Canberra seeks to bolster US backing for the Aukus pact. – Bloomberg

Mordechai Kedar writes: Azerbaijan’s role in the Russia-Iran gas corridor will be decisive. This initiative is not just an energy project but a strategic choice capable of reshaping the balance of power in the South Caucasus. If successful, Baku will increase both its economic and diplomatic leverage, Iran will strengthen domestic stability, and Russia will diversify its energy diplomacy. The only question that still needs to be answered is how the US administration and the EU governments will react to this scenario. – Jerusalem Post

Africa

Malawi’s last presidential election five years ago was seen as a democratic milestone. Citing significant irregularities at the polls, the nation’s highest court struck down the initial results that had kept the incumbent, Peter Mutharika, in power. – New York Times

Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo will commit to working with third parties, including the U.S., to revamp their mineral supply chains and develop reforms, according to a draft of an economic framework seen by Reuters, as they seek to spur investment following a peace deal reached in Washington. – Reuters

Tanzania’s national electoral commission on Saturday accepted the nomination papers of Luhaga Mpina, a senior politician from the second largest opposition party, enabling him to contest next month’s presidential election following a court order. – Reuters

The United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt called on Friday for a three-month humanitarian truce in Sudan followed by a permanent ceasefire, the countries said in a joint statement. – Reuters

South Sudan’s opposition has accused the government of trying to enforce “authoritarian control and one-tribe rule” after First Vice President Riek Machar was charged, opens new tab with orchestrating militia attacks and suspended from his role. – Reuters

North America

The United Nations Secretary-General condemned on Saturday the reported killing of at least 40 people during an attack by armed gangs in a fishing village north of Haiti’s capital. – Reuters

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Friday that a Reuters investigation detailing the close involvement of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency in Mexico’s drug war was false. – Reuters

Mexican officials are set to speak with representatives from China next week about Mexico’s planned tariffs on goods from the Asian country, President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Friday, saying the tariffs were not intended as a coercion measures. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

China is racing to develop world-leading artificial-intelligence technology. This city is paving the way. More than two decades ago, Jack Ma launched Alibaba from a small apartment here, kick-starting his hometown’s transformation from scenic city to tech powerhouse. – Wall Street Journal

Elon Musk’s satellite internet service Starlink was back online for most users after a brief outage on Monday, according to tracking website Downdetector.com. – Reuters

A suspected North Korean state-sponsored hacking group used ChatGPT to create a deepfake of a military ID document to attack a target in South Korea, according to cybersecurity researchers. – Bloomberg

Sweden’s health minister has urged the EU to push ahead with social media restrictions for kids while insisting it be treated as a pressing matter. – Politico

Both machine learning algorithms and other, more deterministic forms of automation have a major role to play in streamlining often cumbersome cybersecurity processes, especially getting software a formal Authority to Operate on Pentagon networks, defense officials said this week. – Breaking Defense

Nevada has faced a 300% increase in cyberattack attempts on its websites since a ransomware attack in August knocked several state websites offline and downed several digital services, Gov. Joe Lombardo said in a press briefing Friday. – Statescoop

The Department of Homeland Security failed to effectively implement a critical retention incentive program for cyber talent, according to a new report from the agency’s inspector general, which found that federal funds meant for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency were used incorrectly. – Fedscoop

An AI research institute funded by the National Science Foundation under the first Trump administration didn’t receive a renewal for five more years of federal support, a move that researchers told FedScoop deals a blow to its work as well as the talent pipeline. – Fedscoop

Parmy Olson writes: The company’s sweeping restructuring still needs a sign-off from regulators in California and Delaware, who must assess whether it serves the public interest and keeps safety in check. If either attorney general objects, the deal could face major delays or forced changes, and the world of checks and balances could come back to bite Altman. Still, it’s hard to imagine California’s AG blocking a deal that enriches one of the state’s most prized exports. Till then OpenAI’s humanitarian mission looks more and more like a branding exercise. Perhaps that was the point. – Bloomberg

Nicklas Lundblad writes: When a technology becomes a geopolitical hinge, it becomes hard for any single political constituency to affect its long-term trajectory — not impossible, but hard — and if we assume this is the case, we would do well to prepare for a spectrum of scenarios. A long-term observatory for artificial intelligence is needed, tasked with exploring different scenarios, key dimensions of change, and possible policy options. We might be heading for some dreary autumn AI weather. But we should prepare for a deep technological climate shift. – Center for European Policy Analysis