Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel and Lebanon will meet in Rome in October to discuss ​a U.S.-brokered security agreement intended to ‌ease hostilities along the border, a State Department Official told Reuters. – Reuters

Jared Kushner, US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and special adviser and one of the administration’s key figures in diplomacy surrounding the Gaza Strip, delivered sharp criticism over the weekend of Israel’s strikes in Doha, Qatar, last year, while also acknowledging that Washington used the international fallout from the attack to increase pressure on Israel and push it toward an agreement. – Jerusalem Post

When IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir finished 2025, he was on track as one of the most popular IDF chiefs in recent memory. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF continues to criticize the Lebanese army’s handling of the memorandum of understanding reached between Beirut and Jerusalem in Rome, arguing that Lebanon has not taken sufficient action against Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s ambassador to the UN said that the mission was expecting “intense” protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s appearance at the UN General Assembly later this month, after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani backed demonstrations against the premier. – Times of Israel

An Israeli airstrike on a vehicle in western Gaza City killed at least two Palestinians and wounded 13 others on Sunday, according to medical staff, with the Israeli military saying it had targeted two Hamas terror operatives. – Times of Israel

A heated Palestinian debate erupted after Fatah Central Committee member Majed Faraj called on Hamas to apologize to the Palestinian people for what he described as the “catastrophe” that followed Oct. 7, 2023. – Asharq al-Awsat

Hushang Manuchehri and Walter E. Block write: Discomfort with Israel’s robust defensive system shows a reflexive instinct to equate vulnerability with virtue and capability with guilt. Western commentary increasingly operates on an unspoken expectation that a state’s right to defend itself is authenticated only by visible victimhood. Because the anti-missile system keeps its civilians alive, to a great but not total degree, Israel is denied the moral latitude routinely extended to nations that absorb catastrophic losses before hitting back. But international law has never required a nation to let its citizens die just to prove someone is trying to kill them. An air defense battery is an instrument of preservation, not an abdication of self-defense, and no sovereign state should have to sacrifice its own people to purchase permission to fight back. – Washington Examiner

Ariella Noveck writes: Herzog’s visit offered a necessary reminder. It said to Americans: Your dead are remembered here, your grief is not foreign to us, and the fight against terrorism is not yours alone. We are still standing beside you. That is what Israel’s 9/11 memorial represents. Its significance is not that no other country cares. It is that Israel chose permanence, solidarity, and responsibility. It is an act of remembrance, but also an act of love from one people to another. America should not need a memorial in the hills of Jerusalem to remind it of the moral clarity demanded by 9/11. But we should recognize what Israel built there, what it says about the Israeli people, and how fortunate we are to have that kind of friendship. – Washington Examiner

David Ben-Basat writes: Nauru may be small in territory and population, but in its relationship with Israel it repeatedly demonstrates a simple truth: friendship between nations is not measured by their size, but by their courage to stand together precisely when friendship comes at a price. The Nauruan flag now flying above its embassy in Jerusalem is a tangible expression of that friendship. It is also a promise of a new and even deeper chapter in relations between the State of Israel and the Republic of Nauru. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

A Russian jet-powered drone struck a train near Ukraine’s border with Poland shortly after high-level European officials passed the same stretch of track, drawing condemnation from European capitals over what they called an escalation on the edge of NATO territory. – Wall Street Journal

President Donald Trump on Sunday said he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to ask him to “stop knocking out diesel fuel” targets in Russia, saying the attacks were contributing to a global shortage of the fuel. – Washington Post

At least five people were wounded in a Russian ​attack on the Ukrainian city ‌of Odesa on Sunday morning, officials said, a day after strikes on the ​city killed two people. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that events in Europe, including the far-right victory in a German state election, were the ​result of “system errors” committed by globalists in the West. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Ukrainian lawmakers on Monday to swiftly support the removal of Ukraine’s prosecutor general as tensions ​escalated over a series of high-profile anti-corruption investigations. – Reuters

A Russian drone struck near the ​Ukrainian-Polish border in the small town of Yahodyn ‌overnight, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Sunday. – Reuters

Russia’s new jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones have pummeled Ukrainian cities in recent weeks, evading air defences at a much higher rate than their propeller-driven predecessors to pose a major new threat. – Financial Times

Editorial: “This isn’t done by the Middle East. This is done by what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine.” So Russia can fire away at any and all targets in Ukraine, but Ukraine must restrain itself in retaliating in Russia. Mr. Trump is clearly worried about the price of diesel fuel, but blaming Ukraine amid Iranian and Houthi attacks on Mideast oil production and transport is political excuse-making on a grand scale. It’s also strategically misguided as Russia and Iran help each other in their respective conflicts. Mr. Trump seems to think he can put these wars into separate boxes. Every time he does, he has adversaries in Moscow and Tehran smiling at their good luck. – Wall Street Journal

Steven Pifer writes: He could send Putin a stark message by asking Congress to fund new military assistance for Ukraine and make clear that the West will ensure that Ukraine’s soldiers receive the funding they need to defend their country. These steps would confront Putin with high and growing costs of his war of aggression. These steps would strengthen Witkoff’s and Kushner’s bargaining hand. Unfortunately, Trump thus far has shied away from such actions. Putin has learned that he can game Trump and Witkoff and, more importantly, that he can defy Trump and face no penalty. Absent a radical change in its approach, the Trump administration will not bring peace closer to Ukraine. It will only continue to fail. – The Hill

Andrew Moore writes: Does Europe actually have the will to call Putin’s bet, or will internal fractures, economic fatigue, and fear of escalation cause the alliance to blink? There are yet many cards to be played, revealed if you will. After four years of war, we may have seen the “flop” but not the “river”. How long the conflict can go on is unknown, but it has been suggested that it could be resolved as an agreement of territorial concessions for peace. Perhaps it would be a territorial win for Putin, pyrrhic it may be, and a strategic win for Ukraine, having survived an existential threat. But for today, Putin seems to be betting that NATO’s hand will waver, leaving Europe and the United States with a choice of whether to fold, stay, or go all-in. – Washington Examiner

Yemen

Yemen is the latest domino to fall in the chain of instability set off by the U.S. war with Iran, a development that deepens the risk to global energy supplies and complicates efforts to find a diplomatic off-ramp to the conflict. – Wall Street Journal

The Houthi capture of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline is reshaping the balance of power in the Gulf, strengthening Iran’s hand and confronting Saudi Arabia and its neighbours with a difficult choice: absorb mounting costs ​or seek accommodation with Tehran. – Reuters

The Iran-backed Houthis reached ​the Yemeni ‌town of Dhubab which sits ​directly ​on the Bab el-Mandeb ⁠Strait across ​from the ​island of Perim, two Yemeni government ​sources told ​Reuters on Friday. – Reuters

President Donald Trump said Iran-backed Houthis have asked the US to abstain from targeting the militant group, as a worsening clash with Saudi Arabia inflames tensions in the Middle East. – Bloomberg

The desperate pleas for air cover from Yemeni generals started coming mid-morning on Thursday. An advance by the Iran-backed Houthis toward Yemen’s strategic port city of Mocha was in full swing, and backup support from chief ally Saudi Arabia was nowhere in sight. – CNN

April Longley Alley and Allison Minor write: Any new campaign by the Saudi-led coalition today should be similarly focused on getting the Houthis to take part in negotiations. But success will first require preventing further losses on the ground and making an immediate effort to bridge divisions within the anti-Houthi coalition. It is well past time to end the failed strategy of addressing Yemen’s problems through short-term military escalation and pressure campaigns. Reviving a political settlement will not be easy or happen immediately. But the alternative is far worse: stumbling into a renewed, protracted, and increasingly regional war that, as with the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran, could prove much easier to start than to end. – Foreign Affairs

Robert F. Worth writes: Islamabad and Ankara have shown no inclination to help the Saudis, despite a rash of recent Houthi strikes on targets in southern Saudi Arabia. Iran’s vaunted Axis of Resistance is not a bulletproof covenant either. The Houthis were absent earlier this year when the United States and Israel started bombing Iran. But unlike their enemies, the Houthis and the Iranians have a deep ideological bond, one that their soldiers willingly die for. And the Houthis do not need to win every battle. As long as they can sink an occasional oil tanker, they will hold a whip hand over their Saudi neighbors, and over the rest of the world too. – The Atlantic

Gulf States

The threat felt like it came out of nowhere. “If Oman gets in the way,” President Donald Trump told Fox News, referring to his efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, “we’ll bomb the s— out of them.” – Washington Post

QatarEnergy is negotiating with several producers to secure multi-year U.S. liquefied natural gas contracts through 2031 to ​replace capacity knocked out by Iranian attacks that will take years to repair, three trading and industry ‌sources said. – Reuters

In the markets of old Dubai, saffron, cumin, pistachios and almonds from Iran still fill the stalls, as if the two shores of the Gulf were not separated by war. – Agence France-Presse

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s expanded espionage law takes effect on Sunday, broadening espionage offences beyond acts involving North Korea to include all foreign countries as Seoul seeks ​to protect key technologies amid intensifying competition in semiconductors and other strategic ‌industries. – Reuters

North Korea said on Monday that its launch of several missiles on Saturday was part of a live-fire drill involving long-range artillery and missile units, according to ​state media KCNA. – Reuters

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s 36-year-old gender minister nominee stepped down before gaining confirmation of her position amid a public backlash over her suitability for the job in the latest negative fallout from the president’s cabinet reshuffle. – Bloomberg

South Asia

Six years after a deadly clash on their mountainous border sent relations between India and China into a deep freeze, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is visiting New Delhi this weekend, delivering the strongest sign yet of a thaw between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. – Wall Street Journal

India and China’s leaders pledged on Saturday to build up business and transport ‌links, New Delhi said, as both rebuild ties badly damaged by a 2020 military clash on their disputed Himalayan border. – Reuters

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Friday to deepen ‌their countries’ longstanding ties, with Putin saying the BRICS grouping should build a new platform for global growth free from Western rules. – Reuters

Myanmar’s military-backed government said on Sunday the country’s permanent representative to ​the United Nations was undertaking “illegal activities” and that his status had ‌been revoked and withdrawn. – Reuters

The top elected official in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan on Saturday ruled out negotiations with insurgents, indicating that the government will continue operations in which hundreds of militants have been killed in recent months. – Associated Press

Leaders of emerging powers including Russia and Iran projected a united front at a weekend summit in New Delhi, with a joint statement that targeted a US-launched war in the Middle East, Washington’s tariff campaign and its sanctions policy. – Bloomberg

Europe

Two crypto billionaires made the biggest political donations in British history to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, in a bid to revitalize the anti-immigration party that has been beset by funding scandals and slowing momentum in the polls. – Wall Street Journal

The explosive debate over whether British-led Northern Ireland should reunify with the independent Ireland to the south has usually been treated with kid gloves by American presidents. But President Donald Trump seems to prefer boxing gloves – Washington Post

German federal prosecutors have charged seven suspected Hamas ​members in Berlin with membership in ‌a foreign terrorist organisation and preparing an attack, including by procuring weapons, they said on ​Friday. – Reuters

The Norwegian government said on Friday it had decided ​to open a new embassy ‌in Qatar while closing its diplomatic mission in Malawi, as part ​of a wider review of ​Norway’s Foreign Service. – Reuters

France’s mission to the United Nations in Geneva has said it “regrets” criticising the ​United States over human rights in a social media post ‌that triggered a diplomatic dispute which has delayed the arrival of a new French ambassador in Washington. – Reuters

Lithuania said that a perceived drone ‌sighting in its airspace earlier on Sunday that prompted authorities to close Vilnius airport and NATO to summon ​at least one fighter jet, turned ​out to be a flock of ⁠birds. – Reuters

Hungary’s government will change legislation passed in 2020 by Viktor Orban’s former government that had effectively banned gay adoption, Prime ​Minister Peter Magyar said on Saturday. – Reuters

The likely leader of the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, the far-right Alternative for Germany’s Ulrich Siegmund, suggested a weapons producer could be allowed to operate in the state to ​provide resources for his party’s planned deportation campaigns. – Reuters

An Italian court on Friday upheld an order to shut down blast furnaces at the former Ilva works, a legal source said, in ​a blow to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s efforts to keep the ‌country’s largest steel plant operating while a buyer is sought. – Reuters

French authorities are investigating whether sabotage caused a train derailment that injured 44 people in Normandy, after a piece of rail was found on the track, police told The Associated Press on Saturday. – Associated Press

Bulgarian authorities have launched investigations into an explosion at a weapons storage site in central Bulgaria overnight that came in the wake of another blaze at a munitions depot in recent weeks. – Associated Press

Kosovo lawmakers on Sunday voted into office a new government of Prime Minister Albin Kurti following an early election in June in the small Balkan nation that remains locked in a prolonged political crisis. – Associated Press

Sweden’s national election was too close to call early Monday, with preliminary results giving the left-wing opposition a narrow three-seat advantage over Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing coalition and days of uncertainty until the final ballots are counted. – Associated Press

German authorities have identified suspects behind a failed drone attack at an airport in Leipzig last month, including someone believed to be affiliated with Russian military intelligence, according to Welt am Sonntag. – Bloomberg

Giant screens featuring digital timers appeared in squares and on main roads across Kosovo this month, counting down to Sept. 16 when judges in The Hague are due to deliver a verdict in the war crimes trial of former President Hashim Thaci. – Bloomberg

Chancellor Friedrich Merz is determined to hold on to power in Germany in defiance of the growing numbers within his party seeking to push him out of office, according to people familiar with his thinking. – Bloomberg

Now, as Russia escalates its campaign of hybrid sabotage against critical infrastructure and Chinese espionage intensifies, Europe’s largely dormant intelligence operations are being given new powers to protect national interests. – Politico

The German military is in talks with Covenant, a U.S.-Israeli, venture capital-backed startup, over its Anthem cruise missile, the country’s defense ministry said on Friday. – Defense News

Editorial: In September 2025, the preceding Labour government formally recognized a “State of Palestine.” Two weeks later, terrorists targeted the Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester. A growing number of British Jews are leaving the country, taking their families, talents, and perhaps Britain’s future with them. The U.K. is plagued by anemic growth, an obtrusive regulatory state, and growing social and cultural fissures. There are a number of reasons for this state of affairs, not the least of which is unfettered immigration by people who neither assimilate nor share Western values. Attempting to appease these voters by targeting Israel won’t solve the nation’s problems; it will only deepen them. – Washington Examiner

Mihir Sharma writes: Instead, Brussels should seize the chance to build a disciplined, structured tier of associated nations: a strategic and economic community that shares procurement rules, sanctions mechanisms, financial contributions and anti-coercion measures against trade assaults. But only those in the inner circle will have the right to write the rules, once they accept their share of responsibility. Perhaps that will remind the countries in the EU, or those with an opportunity to join, of membership’s importance. And of the solidarity that is necessary to create a market and then defend it. – Bloomberg

The Americas

The U.S. military has helped Ecuador bomb suspected drug traffickers along its border with Colombia. Peru says it is eager to deepen military cooperation with American antidrug efforts. – Wall Street Journal

After several stumbles, the son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro is enjoying a late surge before next month’s presidential election as a scandal in the Supreme Court energizes the right. – Washington Post

A diplomatic rift is hindering cooperation between the United States and Brazil on jointly fighting organized crime, according to U.S. and Brazilian officials, an issue the Trump administration has placed at the center of its agenda in the Western Hemisphere. – New York Times

Colombia said it would begin testing aerial spraying to eradicate coca crops, the raw material used to make cocaine, for the first time since the government halted one of the country’s most contentious antidrug policies more than a decade ago — a move that was immediately challenged by a local court. – New York Times

Peru is awaiting a response to a counterproposal it sent to India as negotiations for a free trade agreement enter their final stretch, with ​Lima hoping the deal can be signed in 2027, the country’s Minister ‌for Trade Rogers Valencia said on Friday. – Reuters

US President Donald Trump said he could settle the dispute between Argentina and the UK over the Falkland Islands if asked and appeared to cast doubt on whether the British government would be able to deploy resources to protect the territory if needed. – Bloomberg

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: Banco Master’s collapse triggered huge losses for the state-owned Banco de Brasilia, hit public pension funds holding uninsured high-yielding Banco Master paper, and drained billions of dollars from government deposit insurance, making it the largest depositor rescue in Brazilian history. […] The messages indicate that Mr. Vorcaro arranged luxury accommodations and VIP treatment for de Moraes family members. Ms. Barci de Moraes has denied influence peddling. Justice de Moraes denies any wrongdoing, but a nation fed up with corruption may draw its own conclusions and register them at the ballot box. – Wall Street Journal

Ani Chkhikvadze writes: Along with this, Maduro’s heir has delivered on American demands. She opened the oil fields to American companies, got frozen money moving again, and signed a new energy deal with the Trump administration. If Rodriguez manages to get the lights back on, the water running, and the oil money flowing, she may become a formidable force. Yet, with the dictator now gone, Armas says the country needs a new vision. “Before, our struggle was about terrorists against pro-democratic forces,” Armas said. “Now we need new ideas; we must discuss policies, transitional strategies, and economic plans. There’s a lack of leadership capable of doing that. That’s one of the main challenges of the democratic opposition.” – Washington Examiner

Richard M. Sanders writes: Kast may have to focus more on the slow work of ensuring that police, prosecutors, and judges are well resourced, that intelligence on criminal organizations is deepened, and that Chile’s borders are well patrolled. As for foreign policy, Kast’s views may simply mirror his predecessor’s. While Boric moved in international progressive circles and made performative gestures such as recalling his ambassador to Israel, Kast maintains his ties with the international right and makes his own gestures such as leaving the Non-Aligned Movement. But on the key issue which Chile faces, managing its relations with China and the United States, there is more continuity than rupture, as Chile continues a cautious, low-profile policy. – The National Interest

United States

President Donald Trump said on Friday he would not oppose Chinese automakers building ​cars in the United States despite widespread opposition from U.S. lawmakers ‌and car companies. – Reuters

The U.S. Commerce Department on Friday finalized steep duties on imports of solar cells and panels from India, Indonesia ​and Laos, finding that producers in those countries dumped ‌cheap products in the United States and benefited from unfair government subsidies. – Reuters

The U.S. House of Representatives will begin ​consideration next week of a sweeping Russia sanctions bill championed by the late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, which has passed the ‌Senate but faces stiff opposition from House Democrats. – Reuters

President Donald Trump said he is not worried that Chinese President Xi Jinping will cancel a highly anticipated visit later this month. – Bloomberg

Defense

A top Pentagon official said lawmakers must “step up and deliver” on the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion funding request if the military is to replenish its stockpiles of key air defense interceptors and deep-strike weapons that have seen heavy use in the Iran war. – Bloomberg

The Army awarded two electronic warfare-related contracts with a combined value of nearly $196 million, officials said Thursday, marking the first production deals under a new rapid call for solutions program focused on technology meant to help soldiers fight in the electromagnetic spectrum. – Defensescoop

The Pentagon is close to completely migrating all of the military’s classified systems away from Anthropic models and over to alternate frontier AI vendors, according to Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering Emil Michael. – Defensescoop