Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israelis mark three years since Hamas attack that set off Gaza assault NYT’s Bret Stephens: There’s another cockpit Israelis need to rush WINEP’s Neomi Neumann: One year after the Gaza ceasefire (Part 2): How Hamas has kept its grip on governance ‘Preparing to Fire’: Hear the radio commands enforcing the U.S. blockade of Iran Vance says Iran must cut enrichment to end war WSJ Editorial: Iranians on the loose in Britain ISIS’s David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team: Significant activity identified at Minzadayi, an Iranian nuclear weapons development site U.S. escalates pressure on Russia over Siberia lab death WINEP’s Richard Nephew and Soner Cagaptay: Will Turkey align with Washington’s Iran “economic outcast” policy? Yemen’s Houthi rebels strike two airports in Saudi Arabia North Korea criticises US support for Taiwan, pledges backing for Russia U.S. looks to Iceland as it expands military footprint in ArcticIn The News
Israel
Israelis will on Wednesday mark three years since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, triggering a military assault that destroyed much of Gaza, where conditions remain dire despite a year-old ceasefire that is meant to halt the war for good. – Reuters
Israeli strikes killed at least two Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, health officials said, with one killed near Al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City and the other in a separate strike nearby. – Reuters
Britain is considering expelling Israeli diplomats if Israel carries out its order to shut the British consulate in East Jerusalem this week in a dispute over sanctions targeting Israeli settlements, four sources said. – Reuters
As Israel gears up for its first elections since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his opponents are putting it at the heart of their campaigns. – Associated Press
Israel refused to allow Palestinian election officials access to East Jerusalem or Gaza ahead of legislative polls, according to the official Palestinian news agency Wafa, increasing concerns that the vote will be postponed. – Agence France-Presse
The European Union is “ready to deploy” election observers to monitor Palestinian legislative elections set for November, top diplomat Kaja Kallas said Tuesday. – Agence France-Presse
Israel is concerned that the United States could reassess whether it is meeting the requirements of the Visa Waiver Program following the failure to properly screen the Omani co-pilot aboard the flydubai flight to Israel, a source familiar with the matter told Walla overnight Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
Senior Israeli defense officials told members of the Security Cabinet on Sunday that they are concerned Iran could miscalculate and launch missiles at Israel amid continued US pressure and the country’s worsening economic situation. – Jerusalem Post
An assessment held by the IDF, Israel Police, and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) was held to prepare for the upcoming weeks’ “sensitive period,” the organizations announced in a joint statement on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
Head of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) David Zini warned during a Political-Security Cabinet meeting on Monday of unprecedented terrorist organization efforts in Bedouin communities in the Negev. – Jerusalem Post
The Board of Peace is continuing efforts to advance its Gaza roadmap while carefully timing its actions and public statements ahead of Israel’s elections later this month, a source within the body told i24News diplomatic correspondent Guy Azriel, according to a Monday post on X/Twitter. – Jerusalem Post
Defense Minister Israel Katz on Tuesday instructed the IDF to heighten its alert and be prepared for any possible scenario in Gaza ahead of October 7, which falls on Wednesday, in light of intelligence regarding Hamas’s intentions to try to carry out attacks against Israeli soldiers in Gaza on that day. – Jerusalem Post
A group of 33 passengers who arrived at the Allenby Bridge Border Crossing and presented Japanese passports did not clear border control Tuesday morning after a thorough examination revealed the passports were forged. – Jerusalem Post
Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened all-out war on the Palestinian Authority (PA) on Tuesday. He based this decision on a scenario in which PA security forces would turn their weapons against Israel, despite IDF sources saying there was no concrete intelligence indicating that such a move was being planned. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF expects to resume proactive enforcement operations against military draft evaders and deserters in October after such operations generally did not take place during the recent period, according to a Justice Ministry summary dated Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF has struck approximately 100,000 terrorist targets across multiple arenas since the outbreak of the war, while carrying out sweeping changes to its intelligence, border defense, force deployment and reserve systems as part of lessons learned from the October 7 massacre, according to data released by the military. – Arutz Sheva
Editorial: Three years later, Israel still has no state commission of inquiry into the worst national disaster in its history. That means October 7 remains unfinished business. For many Israelis, October 7 is not three years ago – it is both the past and the present. Ahead of Israel’s national elections, Israelis must remember that our enemies aren’t within, but those seeking to destroy us. May the memory of those killed on October 7, 2023, and since, be blessed. – Jerusalem Post
Shimon Refaeili writes: It does not guarantee that the Jewish people will not be attacked, that antisemitism will disappear, or that the world will always stand by their side. It gives them something more fundamental: the ability to act, defend themselves, and take responsibility for their future. Three years after October 7, this is perhaps the most important Zionist lesson: the principle that the Jewish people are no longer mere spectators in their own history. Responsibility for our fate rests, first and foremost, in our own hands. – Jerusalem Post
Tunku Varadarajan writes: Rebuilding Be’eri, Ms. Bar Sinai says, shows that “we aren’t going anywhere. My family is invested so much in this Zionist project, maybe for five generations.” She reveals, startlingly, that her mother was killed 54 years ago in the attack on Tel Aviv airport by Kozo Okamoto, a Japanese Red Army terrorist trained by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. “That was five decades ago. I didn’t go from here. And they killed my husband. Did I go? No.” She adds: “I will never leave this land.” – Wall Street Journal
Ophir Falk writes: Three years later, Mr. Netanyahu has been proved right. Hamas has been decimated in Gaza, Palestinian terror infrastructure has been uprooted in Judea and Samaria, Hezbollah is on its knees, and Yemen’s Houthis have been hit like never before. Bashar al-Assad’s army in Syria is gone and, most important, the weakened Iranian regime will never assert the same power. After 1,096 days of fighting a war of redemption across seven fronts, Israel and its American ally are stronger than ever. Mr. Netanyahu has emerged as our greatest wartime leader, and the young soldiers of Oct. 7 are proving to be Israel’s Greatest Generation. – Wall Street Journal
Bret Stephens writes: All of which is why, with Wednesday’s third anniversary of the Oct. 7 massacre, stories like Avinatan Or’s and the FlyDubai passengers’ are so instructive. For Israelis to surmount the formidable challenges they face, in pursuit of both victory and peace, the spirit of service — of giving yourself, doing it yourself, taking possession of your destiny against daunting odds — must win out over the spirit of entitlement. And for Israel’s genuine well-wishers, including the good-faith critics, to push that spirit forward, they need to draw a firm moral line against those who simply want Israel gone. At the ballot box this month, there’s one more cockpit the people of Israel need to rush. – New York Times
Amine Ayoub writes: Trusted professionals holding sensitive credentials represent an attractive target for violent ideological exploitation. By establishing robust internal reporting mechanisms, enforcing strict behavioral monitoring, and fostering deep cross-border intelligence cooperation, regional authorities can effectively neutralize these hidden risks before tragedy strikes shared skies. Protecting national aviation infrastructure is an urgent priority that demands unwavering commitment from every security agency operating in the Middle East today. Only through steadfast vigilance can we safeguard future commercial flights across the globe safely. – Arutz Sheva
Neomi Neumann writes: If the United States and Israel hope to stem this worsening problem in Gaza and its spillover effects in the West Bank, a genuine alternative governing structure must be established in the Strip—one capable of dismantling Hamas’s mechanisms of control and reducing public dependency on the movement. This requires empowering the NCAG, reversing Hamas’s infiltration of civil institutions, creating aid distribution and movement mechanisms not dependent on Hamas, relocating populations from Hamas‑controlled areas, and taking steps to dry up the group’s revenue streams. Every policy for Gaza must also be evaluated by its impact on the broader Palestinian arena, particularly in preventing Hamas’s entrenchment in the West Bank. – Washington Institute
Dennis Ross writes: Israel’s PTSD deepens its feeling of insecurity and vulnerability. Even if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is replaced by Gadi Eisenkot, a new Israeli government, like its public, will still harbor those feelings. Those wounds must be acknowledged and addressed, even as Israelis need to be reminded that the Palestinians, the Lebanese, and others carry insecurities and vulnerabilities that must also be addressed to move beyond the nightmares of October 7. – The National Interest
Iran
The audio marked the beginning of a monthslong American naval blockade, now in its second iteration, that has redirected more than 270 vessels as of Oct. 5 and disabled or destroyed almost two dozen more, according to U.S. Central Command. – Wall Street Journal
US Vice President JD Vance said in an exclusive interview with Reuters that Iran must make a “meaningful” reduction in its nuclear enrichment capacity to satisfy US demands and end the countries’ seven-month war, even as Washington was unsure how Tehran makes decisions in negotiations. – Reuters
Editorial: Yet Iranian terror on British soil has been met with a lackluster response. Force protection at Fairford is part of that, and advancing U.S. counterdrone technology will help. Every loss of a B-1 has become more concerning now that the U.S. has so few of them—some 44 today, down from 100 in 1988. But for Britain the bigger problem has been finding the will to confront the Iranians and go on offense against their terror networks. Does protecting U.S. jets and U.K. Jews fit the bill? The IRGC, like Vladimir Putin, clearly doesn’t think it will pay much of a price for orchestrating terror in Britain—or many other states. Until that changes, even the best defense technology can only do so much. – Wall Street Journal
John Bolton writes: Iran may have had no involvement, even indirectly, with FlyDubai 1073. But the publicity attendant to the attack could well inspire others, quite apart from Iran. Accordingly, American and international civil aviation authorities should not simply brush aside the specter of more 9/11-style hijackings by “copycats,” or even Iran itself getting into the act if it wasn’t already. With FlyDubai as the impetus, considerably greater attention should be given to what could pose dangers on the air-side of airports, after security, not just on the public-facing land-side. Screening passengers and cargo entering airports was not FlyDubai’s problem, although that scrutiny should hardly be lessened. Instead, the potential threat arises from the workaday demands of running a complex transportation business largely out of public view, what it involves and who has access to it. – The Hill
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team write: When the IAEA visited Turquz Abad in March 2019, it found evidence that nuclear material or contaminated equipment had been present at the site and the IAEA Board has since been pressing Iran to answer the IAEA’s questions about the current whereabouts of said material and/or equipment. Iran did not simply move the material and/or equipment to a new long term storage site but used the new site in northeast Tehran, aka Minzadayi, to establish an” industrial nuclear headquarters for the reconstruction of research, development, and adaptation infrastructure for nuclear warheads,” including the means to “produce cores of enriched uranium and the explosive material required to cast into them the detonation chain.” The current renewed effort underway at this highly secure compound suggests that the work being conducted here is of top priority. – Institute for Science and International Security
Jim Lamson writes: But this is a low-confidence assessment due to the complexity of factors involved, such as the technical and industrial challenges Iran faces, the scope and nature of assistance from China, Russia, and other foreign suppliers, and especially the potential nonproliferation and military actions by foreign actors that could undermine Iran’s efforts. Looking forward, Iran will almost certainly work to restore some semblance of its prewar ability to produce and improve missiles and drones, as this is an important pillar of deterrence and resistance against Israel and the United States. Its capabilities to do so are clearly degraded, but its intentions to do so appear firmly intact; it remains to be seen whether Iran can overcome the significant challenges it faces to recover and restore its previous status. – War on the Rocks
Alan Eyre writes: The president’s self-assurance doubtless derives in part from his reported belief that this conflict will come down to which side is able to endure economic pain the longest. The countdown clock on Iran’s economy appears to be ticking ever faster: The U.S. Navy’s blockade on Iranian ports has been ruthlessly effective, as, to a lesser extent, has the Treasury Department’s Operation Economic Outcast, announced in August as “an unprecedented campaign to sever every remaining economic lifeline sustaining the Islamic Republic of Iran.” – The Atlantic
Russia and Ukraine
The U.S. has warned Moscow that its failure to disclose details about the death of a lab worker from a plague research center in Siberia runs counter to its international health obligations, U.S. officials said. – Wall Street Journal
Russia’s health watchdog said on Tuesday that no cases of plague had been detected among anyone who had come into contact with a Siberian plague institute laboratory worker who died last week, and locals said their lives had barely been disrupted. – Reuters
Russia’s defence ministry said on Wednesday its forces had carried out a “massive strike” on military-industrial facilities in Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions, using high-precision land-, sea- and air-launched weapons, as well as drones. – Reuters
The Kremlin on Tuesday warned that a preliminary decision by NATO member Lithuania to lift a constitutional ban on hosting nuclear arms on its territory could lead to a new round of escalation in the region. – Reuters
Ukrainian drones killed two people and hit a major fuel depot overnight in one of the biggest attacks of the war on Moscow and the surrounding region, Russian military bloggers said. – Reuters
The U.S. Embassy in Russia is tracking press reports of a suspected pneumonic plague death and associated hospital closures and quarantine measures in the Irkutsk region. – Newsweek
The Russian weapon looks kind of like a cheap cruise missile. It has a thin fuselage, outstretched wings, and a mini turbojet engine that propels it across the sky. – Business Insider
Lawrence Freedman writes: There is no need, however, this time, for endless speculation about Mr. Putin’s plans. Whether he continues with the current level of provocations or raises the threat higher — even risking a major war — European countries should follow the same policies, with or without American participation. First, leaders should be prepared to call out Russia and be candid with their citizens about these dangers, the nature of the struggle and how Russian threats are best addressed. Second, they must better defend against attacks at whatever level they occur, which requires stepping up intelligence efforts and accelerating rearmament plans. And third, to demonstrate that Russian efforts will fail, they should give Ukraine even more support. – New York Times
Turkey
Journalism groups called on social media platform X on Tuesday not to accept requests by the authorities to restrict access to accounts held by journalists and media outlets in Turkey without a clear and independently reviewable judicial decision. – Reuters
Disinflation in Turkey is expected to regain momentum provided that supply pressures ease, Central Bank governor Fatih Karahan said on Tuesday, adding the bank would keep a cautious monetary policy to preserve gains achieved so far in lowering inflation. – Reuters
Turkey’s Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan said on Tuesday data showed there was no risk of contagion from a crisis involving some investment funds, but the bank would intervene again if necessary. – Reuters
Turkish prosecutors asked lenders to hand over assets of the ruling party’s former deputy chair in the course of a funds-rout investigation that’s reached the top of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political establishment. – Bloomberg
Richard Nephew and Soner Cagaptay write: Establish a high-level bilateral working group on diversifying Turkish natural gas imports. Although U.S. officials should avoid pushing Ankara to immediately stop importing Iranian gas, the two governments should form a working group on this issue as soon as possible. More broadly, while seeking greater Turkish cooperation on a pressure strategy is important, Washington should keep in mind that this is probably not sufficient to change the overall financial picture for the Iranian regime. Other countries, especially China and the United Arab Emirates, are more significant economic partners for Iran. Nevertheless, an increased Turkish contribution to a sanctions pressure strategy would be meaningful. – Washington Institute
Arabian Peninsula
Attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels damaged two airports in southern Saudi Arabia near the border with the war-torn nation, the kingdom said Tuesday, marking the latest escalation in fighting that threatens global energy markets. – Wall Street Journal
FlyDubai has been one of the world’s fastest expanding airlines, nearly doubling its staff since the pandemic to become the go-to low-cost carrier for a travel-hungry region. – Wall Street Journal
The Saudi government has pledged to help the Yemeni government “eliminate” the Houthis. The last time they took up that mantle, a decade ago, it devolved into a bloody quagmire. – New York Times
Video posted by government forces in Yemen showed them driving armoured cars over Houthi fighters as they recaptured areas around the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait from the Iran-backed group on Monday in a deadly new phase of the fragmented country’s war. – Reuters
The Trump administration is reluctant to get more involved in Saudi Arabia’s offensive against the Houthis and has tried to restrain Riyadh from sparking a major new conflict in Yemen, according to people familiar with the situation. – Bloomberg
An Israir rescue flight set to depart Dubai for Tel Aviv on Thursday was canceled after the airline failed to secure the necessary approvals from Emirati authorities, N12 News reported Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post
Eric R. Mandel writes: Trump nevertheless should not be underestimated. The Abraham Accords overturned decades of conventional wisdom that Arab-Israeli normalization could not advance without first resolving the Palestinian conflict. He could surprise the region again. But Saudi recognition of Israel, however historic, would not necessarily mean reconciliation. The more realistic relationship may resemble Egypt or Jordan: formal diplomatic relations and extensive security cooperation while societal normalization remains years, perhaps decades, away. Jerusalem knows, and Washington should understand the difference between an agreement between governments and peace between peoples. – The Hill
Moammar al‑Eryani writes: Instead, we are talking about restoring the Yemeni state itself. Yemenis deserve to have the world hear their full story, rather than having the narrative of the war begin at the moment their state and its forces decided to respond. Peace is the goal Yemenis aspire to after long years of suffering. But sustainable peace cannot be built on the absence of the state or on accepting parallel armed forces as a permanent reality. Restoring the Yemeni state is not an obstacle to peace. In the long run, no sustainable peace is possible without a state. – Ynet
Can Kasapoğlu writes: Yemen’s operations against the Houthis now cast uncertainty over those routes. On October 5, as fighting in Yemen intensified and unconfirmed reports circulated of a fresh Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline, Brent crude, a major crude oil blend that serves as the primary global pricing benchmark for international oil, was already trading at approximately $100 per barrel. On that same day, reporting from United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) indicated that the IRGC was threatening a tanker near the coast of Oman to withdraw or be attacked, and that the ship’s captain confirmed that the vessel had reversed course. This incident followed a separate UKMTO report, on October 4, of a possible attack on another tanker at Bab al-Mandab. – Hudson Institute
Middle East & North Africa
Oil prices staged a late recovery Tuesday, snapping a two-session losing streak as traders assessed recovering Middle East crude exports against fresh shipping incidents around the Strait of Hormuz and renewed fighting near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. – Wall Street Journal
Iraq’s government has proposed an oil price assumption of $58 a barrel with total spending projected at 217 trillion Iraqi dinars ($166 billion), lawmakers familiar with the 2027 draft budget said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Around 12 million barrels per day of crude oil and 2 million bpd of refined products — volumes needed to dampen price pressure — have left the Middle East on tankers in the last 7 to 10 days, commodities trading giant Vitol’s CEO said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Korean Peninsula
Two South Korean megachurches are investigating suspected cyberattacks that may have exposed the personal data of hundreds of thousands of congregants, with evidence suggesting AI tools may have been used in the attacks, according to the churches and a cybersecurity firm. – Reuters
North Korea criticised the United States over its arms sales and military support for Taiwan, accusing Washington of fuelling tensions in the Taiwan Strait, state media KCNA said on Wednesday. – Reuters
North Korea’s Foreign Ministry rejected on Tuesday blame from South Korea for a border landmine blast, and threatened its neighbour with “immediate and powerful counteraction” for any violation of territory. – Reuters
North Korea said it would not tolerate even a “millimeter” violation of its territory after South Korea conducted mine removal operations along the two countries’ heavily fortified border following an incident in which three South Korean soldiers were injured. – Bloomberg
Park Joonhye writes: China built the bridge 12 years ago. North Korea did not build the road to use it. In 2026, North Korea finally began building that road. Whether this represents the beginning of broader economic opening or simply a limited expansion of trade driven by economic necessity remains unclear. But one thing is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The return of vehicles to a bridge that sat largely unused for 12 years shows that North Korea can no longer afford to keep its borders completely closed. The bridge across the Amnok River was built long ago. – Washington Examiner
China
China has kept its export engine roaring with a combination of tax rebates and a weak currency, helping sustain economic growth at home while sending a surge of Chinese goods into markets abroad. – New York Times
Light attack aircraft and military vehicles have arrived at the new China-Laos joint training facility announced last Tuesday, according to satellite images reviewed by Reuters. – Reuters
China plans to put forward a late candidate to lead the World Health Organization, according to four diplomats and a source familiar with the matter, giving Beijing a chance to expand its influence after the US quit the WHO. – Reuters
The United States has discussed starting reciprocal visits to nuclear sites with China, and plans to continue pushing in meetings in the coming months, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter. – Reuters
Chuck DeVore writes: China still refines the overwhelming share of the magnets used inside U.S. and allied weapons. Beijing tightened licenses, then blacklisted American firms standing up mines and magnet plants. The concept aimed to freeze the West’s rearmament while the PLA finished its own. But Trump treated the squeeze as the warning it was. Capital has rapidly moved to address the supply chain vulnerability. The Pentagon is pushing Chinese magnets out of defense supply chains, rendering America far less helpless by 2031 than it was in 2024. Every year Xi waits to use this new navy, China’s chokehold on America weakens. – Fox News
Carl Minzner writes: All this points to a United States that will soon experience the same kind of reckoning that China is undergoing today. But demographic crisis is not destiny. It is the accumulation of choices—whether to support families or dictate to them, welcome immigrants or wall them out, lift up the young or protect entrenched privilege. Under Xi’s rule, China no longer has the luxury of choice: it is walking into a dead-end, closed version of itself that will worsen its demographic decline. The United States, however, can still choose differently. – Foreign Affairs
Michael Poznansky and Ian Easton write: Overt efforts to reverse the situation on the ground might cause escalation and engender local resentment. Because post-realignment options are fraught, Washington must proactively develop a strategy to strengthen Taiwan relations. Arms sales alone are not enough. Investing in public diplomacy; countering China’s political warfare campaign; aiding Taiwan with counterintelligence to uncover united front work; and providing robust reassurance must all be prioritized to ensure that China’s winning without fighting scenario never comes to pass. – Foreign Policy
South Asia
Months after massive street protests over a university exam scandal forced the resignation of India’s education minister, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is facing a fresh wave of demonstrations over an even more contentious issue: the right to vote. – Wall Street Journal
Nepal plans to split the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) into two separate agencies to improve air safety, a minister said on Tuesday, in a country with a long history of crashes. – Reuters
Myanmar’s junta chief-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing will arrive in Malaysia on Wednesday for talks with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, as the military-backed leader once shunned by regional nations seeks international legitimacy. – Reuters
Pakistan’s government has provided fuel subsidies to more than 9 million low-income people as the U.S.-Iran war drives up energy prices, officials said Tuesday. – Associated Press
Pakistan’s Defense Minister said his country and Turkey have been supporting Saudi Arabia in its conflict against the Houthis, as a trilateral security pact signed earlier this year faces its first test. – Bloomberg
Asia
Regional police raided city hall in Toyama, in western Japan, on Saturday after a central government ministry said it had found inconsistencies during a review of census data. – New York Times
The world must increase its efforts to reduce emissions in order to keep global temperature rises beneath 1.5 degrees Celsius and limit the impact of rising seas and extreme weather, delegates gathered at a climate conference in Fiji said on Wednesday. – Reuters
US soldiers stationed on Japan’s Okinawa have been given a month-long curfew and banned from drinking alcohol while they undergo discipline training after a Marine was alleged to have murdered and robbed a local woman. – Reuters
Indonesia’s Constitutional Court has found that while Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s education documentation for his candidacy in the 2024 election was incomplete, it did not disqualify him from office and left the assessment of his eligibility to other institutions. – Reuters
The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday it has reached a staff-level agreement with Papua New Guinea on reviews of its funding facilities, potentially unlocking up to $189 million once approved by the fund’s executive board. – Reuters
Indonesia’s pick to lead the World Health Organization, its health minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin, told Reuters that the United States should rejoin the agency after its exit at the start of this year. – Reuters
The Philippines’ National Security Council said it is looking into information presented during the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte alleging that a company linked to her husband had received remittances from China and Hong Kong, it said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Malaysia will hold local elections in Malacca on Nov. 14 in what’s set to be a fresh test for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan coalition, following setbacks in two state polls earlier this year. – Bloomberg
U.S. and Japanese forces will amass in Japan’s southwest region to rehearse island defense as part of the annual Keen Sword exercise later this month. – USNI News
Australia’s efforts to develop its sovereign guided weapons manufacturing continue to make progress but risks remain, with two think tanks this year calling for the country to further diversify its sources and take concrete steps to ensure its workforce is in place to support its plans. – Breaking Defense
Europe
France’s finance minister said the government is prepared to exercise special constitutional powers and circumvent Parliament to pass billions in spending cuts if negotiations stall over next year’s budget. – Wall Street Journal
On the doorstep of a Jared Kushner-linked development site on the Adriatic Sea, a group of determined villagers set out in late May to protest barbed-wire fencing preventing their access to a coastal peninsula. – Wall Street Journal
German police on Tuesday detained the country’s former head of its foreign-intelligence service on suspicion of espionage and attempted treason in one of the biggest scandals to engulf the spy agency since its creation in the mid-1950s. – Wall Street Journal
Exporters are set to get an extra year to get to grips with incoming European Union methane emission rules, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said as companies struggle with high fuel costs. – Wall Street Journal
As President Trump crisscrossed the country last week trying to help his party avoid a blowout in next month’s midterm elections, two of his top political advisers were in the Balkans helping a pro-Russian government looking to tighten its grip on power. – New York Times
A 22-year-old British man was arrested on Tuesday on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts, the police said, as part of an investigation into a security incident last month near an air base used by the United States. – New York Times
The Spanish Supreme Court has canceled an arrest warrant for Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan separatist leader who fled the country in 2017 and had been living in Belgium, allowing him to return to Catalonia. – New York Times
Rescue operations were underway off the coast of Bulgaria on Tuesday after drones hit two commercial ships, sinking one and setting the other ablaze, according to the country’s prime minister. – New York Times
Kosovo’s parliament elected economist Justina Shiroka Pula as the country’s largely ceremonial president just before a constitutional deadline, avoiding another snap election in one of the poorest countries in Europe. – Reuters
Spain’s government on Tuesday approved two housing decrees whose rejection by parliament last week prompted Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to call a snap election. – Reuters
The far-right Alternative for Germany convened for the first sitting of the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament on Tuesday but, a month after its landmark election win, the party still lacks a clear path to forming what would be its first state government. – Reuters
Three Iranian men spied on British-based dissident journalists on behalf of Iran’s foreign intelligence service in order to attack them “as retribution for their criticism of the Iranian regime”, prosecutors told a London jury on Tuesday. – Reuters
A far-left French EU lawmaker faced an investigation Tuesday after the Israeli and European Union flags were allegedly thrown to the floor at a commemoration for the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led massacre in southern Israel. – Agence France-Presse
President Donald Trump weighed in on France’s ongoing school protest crisis on Tuesday, arguing that the unrest reflected broader concerns about immigration and integration. – Newsweek
France test-fired an upgraded version of its M51 strategic ballistic missile from a submarine for the first time on Tuesday, a capability demonstration that President Emmanuel Macron called “very important” for the country’s strategic credibility and which he said would be monitored by allies and adversaries alike. – Defense News
For the first time, the 27 member states of the European Union (EU) officially have given approval for a collective response — via political, economic or even military means — to threats against any one nation’s satellites and related terrestrial infrastructure, under a recent decision by the group’s ruling Council of Ministers. – Breaking Defense
Editorial: France’s main problem isn’t math. It’s slow growth. The right fiscal reforms, such as tax cuts and welfare and pension reforms that encourage work and investment, would create new opportunities for prosperity. Young people would be the biggest beneficiaries. The alternative is what’s happening in the streets. Americans can’t afford to gloat from the sidelines. U.S. debt is 100% of GDP, and its politicians can be as feckless as the French. At least the U.S. economy is growing at a healthy clip, but that could change in a hurry with the wrong mix of regulation and a ham-handed attempt to tax our way out of our fiscal hole. – Wall Street Journal
Uriel Zehavi writes: America has a stake in that bet that London keeps leaving out. The bombers on that runway were ours, and the warning about the base came from Israel, through a relationship Britain keeps drawing down three weeks before Israelis go to the polls. If a British government wants to treat Israel as a pariah, it should at least stop treating Israel’s intelligence as a free service. Washington, whose planes were parked there, is the one ally London can’t afford to ignore, and it should make that clearer before the next warning comes in. – Washington Examiner
Maciej Bukowski writes: The United Arab Emirates committed $1 billion to a 50-satellite AI constellation led by UAE-based Marlan Space and Franco-American Loft Orbital. Orbitworks is producing the satellites in Abu Dhabi. French artificial intelligence leader Mistral provides software, using NVIDIA chips. Amazon Leo, meanwhile, has ordered six more Ariane 6 launches, taking its European launcher commitment to 24 missions. Airbus is separately building Starlab with US-led Voyager Technologies. The global space economy is transatlantic. The effort to create a credible alternative to Starlink addresses a real vulnerability. The risk is that rules written in the language of resilience become nationality tests that exclude allies. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Niccolò Comini writes: Europe’s application of dual-use infrastructure leaves significant vulnerabilities, meaning the deployment should reach beyond military installations. In a conflict, ports, airports, and railroads would be used by NATO to transport materiel, troops, and weaponry eastward. Deploying teams to ports and airports would not be a silver bullet for protecting NATO dual-use infrastructure, but it would be a start to countering drone incursions at airports and preparing for worst-case scenarios. Europe and NATO will only find peace through strength, and modern deterrence is vital. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Filip Gaspar writes: Dayton stopped a war and preserved a state. It never answered why one constituent people received an entity, another a commanding majority in the Federation, and the third was expected to rely indefinitely on foreign supervision and the restraint of a larger electorate. For 30 years, an appointed official managed that contradiction rather than settling it. The permanent supervisor is now gone. An acting American official can preserve the office, but he cannot restore the consensus that once justified it. On October 4, the candidate backed by Bosnia’s principal Croat party won the Croat seat. That outcome avoided a new legitimacy crisis. It did not change the system that made one possible. – The National Interest
Africa
A man who fell ill with Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo transited three countries and boarded a commercial flight to Nairobi, where he died of the highly contagious virus, senior Kenyan health officials said Tuesday. – Wall Street Journal
Families of two independent gold prospectors allegedly killed by security forces at a Tanzanian mine are taking their grievances directly to global markets, suing the London-based authority that certified metal from the deposit as ethically produced. – Wall Street Journal
Kenya has recorded its first case of Ebola after the virus was diagnosed in a man who had arrived from the Democratic Republic of Congo, the government announced on Tuesday. – New York Times
The African Union will launch the continent’s first credit rating agency on Wednesday, seeking to provide an alternative to the “big three” global ratings agencies as debt burdens weigh on many African economies. – Reuters
Another 105 Nigerians arrived in Lagos from South Africa on Friday, bringing to 1,926 the number repatriated since June following xenophobic attacks, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters
A separatist movement in northern Mali announced on Tuesday it was carrying out “a controlled withdrawal” from a strategic town in the north, a symbolic boost to Mali’s army and its Russian backers in their years-long fight against insurgents including al Qaeda-linked jihadists. – Reuters
Democratic Republic of Congo has launched a nationwide airborne geological mapping programme aimed at improving knowledge of its vast mineral reserves to reduce exploration risk and attract investment into underexplored regions, its geological agency said. – Reuters
Zambia will sign a revised health agreement with the United States that will not include contentious clauses committing the African nation to share patient health data and specimens with the U.S. government. – Associated Press
Hal Brands writes: The second trend is the pervasive geopolitical messiness of our world. America’s unipolar dominance has receded. Rival great powers assert their influence; middle powers pursue their own ambitious projects. Nonstate actors, now armed with missiles and other sophisticated weapons, inject radicalism and upheaval. This world will be tougher to manage, let alone master, than anything Washington and its allies have encountered in decades. Crises will be frequent, conflicts intractable, sources of stability scarce. But the key to navigating complex terrain is understanding its contours. Mapping the geography of turmoil in the Red Sea corridor is essential — as a warning of the wider global upheaval to come. – Bloomberg
The Americas
President Claudia Sheinbaum began her workday at dawn last week by grilling Mexico’s top security and intelligence officials. She wasn’t happy. – Wall Street Journal
In a sign of the Trump administration’s new focus on combating Latin American cartels, the U.S. military has moved a number of MQ-9 Reaper drones from Africa to Colombia and Ecuador, U.S. officials said. – New York Times
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Ankara and Istanbul from October 21 to 23, his office said on Tuesday, in what will be the first dedicated bilateral visit to NATO ally Turkey by a Canadian leader. – Reuters
After a bruising first round of Brazil’s presidential election, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is rushing to overhaul his campaign communications to engage millions of Brazilians who did not vote, according to people close to the campaign. – Reuters
Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro said on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump’s remarks about the South American country’s election underscored what he called President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s growing isolation on the world stage. – Reuters
Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella offered legal assistance Tuesday to a group of Colombian military veterans who were arrested over the 2021 killing of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse and recently extradited from the Caribbean country to Florida after their case languished for years. – Associated Press
United States
The U.S. authorities arrested a 30-year-old Washington State resident on Tuesday on charges of conspiring to commit a school shooting in rural British Columbia, eight months after a Canadian teenager killed eight people. – New York Times
California leaders condemned President Trump on Monday night after he appeared to suggest that Iran could “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego if it develops a nuclear weapon. – New York Times
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to call for the nations of the West to return to their civilizational roots and restore the values that drove the rise of Europe and North America to global dominance for centuries. – Associated Press
Jewish New Yorkers accounted for 245 of the 463 confirmed hate crimes recorded in New York City during the first nine months of 2026, according to NYPD statistics released Tuesday. The figure represents 53% of all confirmed hate crimes and is 1.2% higher than the 242 anti-Jewish incidents recorded during the same period in 2025. – Arutz Sheva
Cybersecurity
Hackers used a Chinese artificial-intelligence agent to attack South Korea’s biggest banks and steal the personal information of 68,000 people, officials said, marking one of the first such AI-powered intrusions into the global financial system. – Wall Street Journal
As the United States and China vie for A.I. dominance, the Trump administration has made it more difficult for companies to hire foreign researchers, while China has made recruiting the world’s best scientists a national priority. – New York Times
Anthropic is expanding a program that allows vetted cybersecurity professionals to test its most powerful AI models with fewer safeguards, after its Project Glasswing initiative helped uncover more than 100,000 software vulnerabilities this year. – Reuters
Thousands of administrative systems at wind and solar power parks in Europe are exposed to the internet, potentially giving attackers access to interfaces that can stop turbines and raising the risk of sabotage, Dutch researchers warned on Tuesday. – Reuters
Countries both rich and poor must take faster action to cut debt and counter growing inequality as their economies weather a triple whammy from the artificial intelligence boom, heavy borrowing and shocks from wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, the head of the IMF said Wednesday. – Associated Press
Former National Security Agency Director Paul Nakasone said a reported broad reorganization of the agency is “probably necessary” as it confronts faster-moving cyberthreats, artificial intelligence and competition with China, but he cautioned that the outcome will depend on how the changes are carried out. – Cyberscoop
A coalition of cyber firms and critical infrastructure operators on Tuesday spelled out its views on the tasks that the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency should assign federal agencies to protect operational technology systems after this summer’s attacks on water utilities. – Cyberscoop
Hackers compromised more than 100 websites to infect Ukrainian users with information-stealing malware, according to a new report. Ukraine’s computer emergency response team, CERT-UA, said the campaign, discovered in September, involved attackers injecting malicious code into legitimate websites. – The Record
Defense
Secretary of State Marco Rubio brought President Trump’s Arctic ambitions to Iceland on Tuesday, looking to build on a deal that emerged from Trump’s push to take control of Greenland as the U.S. expands its military reach across the region. – Wall Street Journal
US Vice President JD Vance gave an exclusive interview to Reuters on Monday while campaigning in Alaska, a state that has emerged as a key battleground in the November elections that will determine control of Congress. – Reuters
Democratic US Senator Chris Murphy said on Tuesday that the Department of Defense denied him access to a key military base in Qatar during a visit to the Middle East, describing it as part of a US government effort to conceal the impact of the Iran war. – Reuters
Relatives of some soldiers killed in the Iran war joined dozens of Gold Star families from prior U.S. conflicts Tuesday at the White House, where President Donald Trump offered words of comfort and candles were lit for the fallen service members, according to one of the widows who attended. – Associated Press
Anduril Industries, known for building drones and autonomous aircraft, is investing $3.7 billion to build a massive new shipbuilding facility in Maryland, a move that will enhance the US Navy’s nuclear-powered submarine production. – Bloomberg
Iran cannot strike Los Angeles or San Diego with a nuclear weapon, regardless of President Donald Trump’s offhand comments on the campaign trail. – Business Insider
On the factory floor at gun maker Sig Sauer’s headquarters, giant shipping pallets of the brand-new M8 Next Generation Squad Weapon rifle sit shrink-wrapped on shelves, ready for dispatch to soldiers. – Defense News
Editorial: The NRC managed to issue the construction permit for TVA in 14 months, four months faster than anticipated. That’s the second time the notoriously lethargic agency shocked developers with its speedy review of an advanced reactor. The first, for TerraPower’s proposed plant in Wyoming, was completed nine months ahead of schedule. Those are encouraging signs of a possible nuclear renaissance — or, at the very least, they’re indications that the industry will succeed or fail based on economic merits, not ideological grounds. – Washington Post