Fdd's overnight brief

October 31, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

But the reprieve could be short-lived. U.S. and Israeli officials, as well as diplomats and regional experts, see Tuesday’s election as a critical inflection point — with the outcome likely to inform Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions not just in Iran, but in Gaza as well. – Washington Post

The Biden administration has received nearly 500 reports alleging that Israel used U.S.-supplied weapons for attacks that caused unnecessary harm to civilians in the Gaza Strip, but it has failed to comply with its own policies requiring swift investigations of such claims, according to people familiar with the matter. – Washington Post

The United Nations Security Council on Wednesday “strongly warned against any attempts to dismantle or diminish” the operations and mandate of the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA after Israel passed a law banning its operations. – Reuters

A Hamas official said Wednesday that the group would discuss any ideas for a Gaza ceasefire that included an Israeli withdrawal, but had not officially received any comprehensive proposals. – Agence France-Presse

Key Hamas operative Hassam Malach was eliminated in Tulkarm, the IDF announced in a joint statement with the Shin Bet and Israel Police. – Jerusalem Post

The IAF conducted a strike targeting Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists within the Khan Yunis humanitarian area, the IDF announced Tuesday overnight. – Jerusalem Post

A draft cease-fire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, crafted by the United States and shown to Israel as part of the discussions on a final version, includes an extensive mandate for Israel to enter Lebanese territory to thwart threats from Hezbollah or other organizations. – Haaretz

Deborah Harris and Jessica Kasmer-Jacobs write: You can lead a cultural boycott of Israeli literary institutions only if you believe that we don’t deserve to be there in the first place. And if that is your position, you are not looking to solve this conflict and alleviate suffering and death and herald an independent Palestine. You are advocating the expulsion of the other indigenous people of this place, the people about whom you apparently read very little. – New York Times

Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth write: Friday’s airstrikes were likely just a beginning. Israel is setting conditions for that possibility by isolating the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran’s mullahs from the Iranian Army and the Iranian people. The first step was to defeat Iran’s integrated air-defense network. Israel is one step closer to removing the head from the Iranian hydra. – The Hill

Dan Diker writes: Having paid an enormously high human price, Israel has embodied the lesson of the strong horse in a chaotic, unstable, and unforgiving Middle East. Israel’s evolving self-awareness as an indigenous ethnic minority today understands that, as Smith notes, “He who punishes enemies and rewards friends, forbids evil and enjoins good, is entitled to rule. There’s no alternative, not yet anyway, to the strong horse.” – Jerusalem Post

Iran

Iran’s missile production has not been disrupted following Israeli air strikes on the Islamic Republic on Oct. 26, Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh was quoted as saying on Wednesday by state media. – Reuters

America’s presidential election next week comes just after Iran marks the 45th anniversary of the 1979 U.S. Embassy hostage crisis — and for many, tensions between Tehran and Washington feel just as high as they did then. – Associated Press

Iranians will soon be able to get their hands on iPhones 14, 15 and 16 after authorities lifted a ban on new smartphone models by the U.S. tech giant Apple, according to an announcement Wednesday. – Associated Press

A British soldier accused of passing sensitive information to people linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and of then breaking out of prison told jurors on Wednesday that he and his family were opposed to the Iranian government. – Reuters

Mohammad Reza Farzin will stay in post as the head of Iran’s Central Bank according to a decree signed by the country’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, state media reported on Wednesday. – Reuters

Iranian state media on Wednesday said intelligence services killed a member of a separatist group, which it accuses of links to Israel, and arrested two others in the country’s northwest. – Agence France-Presse

Iran’s government on Wednesday appointed the first governor from the Baluch minority in the country’s restive southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan. – Agence France-Presse

Alex Selsky writes: For Israel, this is an opportunity that must not be missed. Continued pressure and military action will further isolate Iran. Alliances will grow stronger in support of Israel’s resilience. Iran must not be allowed to escape with its nuclear ambitions, regardless of the sitting US president’s stance—whether friendly or less so. Israel has proven to itself and others that it can act independently, and as it continues this path, it will increasingly reap the rewards of its victory. – Jerusalem Post

Can Kasapoğlu writes: Continued restraints from the Biden administration ahead of US elections, as well as the Israeli government’s desire to avoid an extended exchange with Iran that would stress the IDF’s interceptor stockpiles, will likely temper Israel’s actions moving forward. As such, Tehran’s response to Israel will set the near-term trajectory of the conflict. Should Iran repeat its October 1 strikes by launching a barrage of long-range assets, Israel could respond by targeting Iran’s oil facilities, ports, nuclear program, and leadership. – Hudson Institute

Uri Friedman writes: We are now in a third nuclear age, in which nuclear and near-nuclear states come in a greater variety of shapes and sizes. Arms-control agreements have unraveled, diplomatic channels between adversaries have vanished, and establishing nuclear deterrence has never been more complicated. After the advent of nuclear weapons in the 1940s, at least one new country acquired the world’s most destructive arms every decade until the 2010s, when the streak ended. Nearly halfway through the 2020s, it seems like we may revert to the historical pattern before this decade is done. – The Atlantic

Russia & Ukraine

North Korean troops deployed to Russia have begun to make their way toward the border with Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday, adding that it would be “very disturbing” if the soldiers were sent into combat. – Washington Post

Russia and Ukraine exchanged scores of drone strikes Wednesday as North Korea’s top diplomat arrived in Russia for talks after his country reportedly deployed thousands of soldiers to help Moscow’s war efforts. – Associated Press

The United States on Wednesday targeted Russia with fresh sanctions, issuing curbs on hundreds of targets including dozens of Chinese, Indian and Turkish entities and individuals, according to the U.S. Treasury Department website. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy strongly suggested in a video released on Wednesday that Kyiv has requested supplies of long-range U.S. Tomahawk missiles, as he made critical remarks about “confidential” information he said had been leaked. – Reuters

South Korea is considering sending a team of military monitors to Ukraine to observe and analyse the expected deployment of North Korean troops by Russia on the frontlines of the conflict there, a presidential official said on Wednesday. – Reuters

North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui will hold strategic consultations in Moscow with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Russia said on Wednesday, amid growing Western concern that North Korea may be about to join the Ukraine war on Russia’s side. – Reuters

North Korea is “very likely to ask” Moscow for advanced technology related to nuclear weapons in exchange for deploying troops to help Russia in its war against Ukraine, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong Hyun said at the Pentagon on Wednesday. – CNN

With an eye to Americans voting next Tuesday, President Putin is seeking to impress on America his nuclear might. By conducting a nationwide drill, firing nuclear capable rockets from land, sea and air, he clearly wants to show America’s next administration that there will be a price for messing with Russia. – New York Sun

Bruce Klingner writes: Kim Jong-un has increased threatening rhetoric against South Korea, blown up road and rail lines connecting the Koreas, and unveiled expansions to his missile force and nuclear weapon production capabilities. Responding to rising Indo-Pacific and European security threats will require greater security contributions by partners, enhanced multilateral security coordination, and enduring U.S. commitment to its allies to deter opponents and defend common strategic interests. – Heritage Foundation

John Bolton writes: Surely the image of Pyongyang fighting Kyiv should jar both the simplistic premises of “East Asia only” theorists and the quietude of Biden-Harris supporters. We must immediately overcome any remaining French and German objections to increasing NATO coordination with Japan, South Korea and others, including ultimately joining NATO, as former Spanish Prime Minister José Maria Aznar suggested years ago. Existing Asia-based initiatives like the Quad, AUKUS and closer military cooperation among America’s allies need to be rocket-boosted. – The Hill

Hezbollah

The Israeli military said on Wednesday it had killed the deputy commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Forces in the southern Lebanese town of Nabatieh. – Reuters

Hezbollah’s newly named leader Naim Kassem said in his first public comments aired Wednesday that the militant group will keep fighting in its ongoing war with Israel until it is offered cease-fire terms it deems acceptable. – Associated Press

A Lebanese security official told AFP that an Israeli strike on a Hezbollah van carrying munitions near Beirut killed the driver on Wednesday. – Agence France-Presse 

Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah group said it launched drones at an Israeli base in the port city of Haifa on Wednesday, as clashes intensify more than a month into the war. – Agence France-Presse

Senior officials within the Lebanese Kataeb Party (the Phalanges) and Lebanese Forces believe that weakening Hezbollah’s economic capabilities may destabilize its hold over its base of supporters. – Jerusalem Post

Despite Hezbollah’s declarations throughout the war, the terrorist organization has agreed to drop its demands and is ready to withdraw beyond the Litani River, Lebanon’s MTV website, which is associated with Hezbollah opponents, reported Wednesday night. – Jerusalem Post

Hezbollah’s new leader Naim Qassem threatened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s life on Wednesday, but also appeared to open the door to a ceasefire with Israel, in his first speech since his appointment was announced on Monday. – Times of Israel

Syria

U.S. airstrikes hit several Islamic State camps in the Syrian desert on Monday, killing up to 35 of the group’s operatives, the United States Central Command said in a statement on Wednesday. – New York Times

Human Rights Watch warned Wednesday that Syrians fleeing Israel’s onslaught on Lebanon could face repression at home as more than 355,000 Syrians returned in more than a month of war. – Agence France-Presse 

Haid Haid writes: In the longer term, the regime’s inability to mitigate the economic repercussions of the ongoing conflict in Lebanon — particularly given the lack of a foreseeable resolution — poses a significant threat to its stability. Continued deterioration in living conditions could strain the loyalty of key supporters, deepen rifts within the regime’s inner circle, and expose cracks in its authority, potentially setting the stage for deeper socio-political turmoil. – Middle East Institute

Iraq

The ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) came first in a parliamentary election in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq, winning 39 seats, the election commission said on Wednesday, positioning it to lead the next regional government. – Reuters

A drone, likely launched at Israel from Iraq, exploded in the northern Golan Heights […] according to the IDF. The military says that there are no reports of damage or injuries in the incident. – Times of Israel

Mohammed Salih writes: actions of the Iraqi militias could have far-reaching implications beyond Iraq’s borders. Militia leaders have repeatedly threatened to target Saudi and Emirati oil infrastructure if Israel strikes Iraq or Iranian territories. This would have a profound impact on global energy markets and could destabilize the region further, putting pressure on international actors to intervene in various ways. Given the militias’ history of attacking Gulf targets and their reckless behavior, these threats should be taken seriously. Without decisive action domestically, Iraq risks becoming the focal point of a regional maelstrom once again, with grave consequences for the country’s infrastructure and stability. – National Interest

Lebanon

The Israeli military broadened its air campaign in Lebanon on Wednesday, striking the northeastern city of Baalbek after ordering residents to flee, as the new leader of Hezbollah, in his inaugural speech, said the group is prepared to fight “a long war” with Israel. – Washington Post

Satellite imagery and videos show widespread destruction in six villages along Lebanon’s southern border with Israel, revealing 1,085 buildings that have been leveled or badly damaged since its Oct. 1 invasion aimed at crippling the militant group Hezbollah. – New York Times

At an international conference in Paris last week, European leaders singled out the Lebanese Armed Forces as key to stabilizing the country. Some $200 million in contributions were announced, including sums provided by the U.S., France and Germany. – Wall Street Journal

The United States on Wednesday urged Israel to protect civilian lives and cultural sites in Lebanon after Israel began heavy airstrikes on the historic city of Baalbek and surrounding villages in the eastern Bekaa region. – Reuters

Lebanon’s prime minister expressed hope on Wednesday that a ceasefire deal with Israel would be announced within days as Israel’s public broadcaster published what it said was a draft agreement providing for an initial 60-day truce. – Reuters

Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides on Wednesday said he and President Joe Biden discussed U.S. efforts to halt hostilities between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, and expressed optimism that a ceasefire could be reached in the next weeks. Christodoulides, speaking after his meeting with Biden at the White House, said the two leaders discussed the U.S. efforts, but declined to give any details. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia

Oil giant Saudi Aramco (2223.SE) wants to invest in the oil refinery sector and petroleum distribution in Vietnam, the Southeast Asian country’s government said in a statement issued late on Tuesday. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia is in the advanced stages of talks about a stake in a copper mine in Zambia and is expecting a deal by the end of the year, the CEO of Saudi Arabia’s flagship mining company Ma’aden told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia on Wednesday hosted the first meeting of a new “international alliance” to press for the establishment of a Palestinian state. – Agence France-Presse

Amine Ayoub writes: Regionally, the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could have significant implications for the broader Middle East. It could lead to a realignment of regional alliances and power dynamics, potentially impacting the balance of power in the region. Other regional actors, such as Iran and Turkey, may view such a normalization with suspicion and seek to undermine it. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Top U.S. officials, including CIA Director William Burns and envoys Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein, will visit Egypt and Israel on Thursday, the White House confirmed, as Washington seeks to de-escalate tensions in the region. – Reuters

French PhD student Victor Dupont was detained in Tunisia on breach of state security charges 12 days ago, and French authorities are trying to negotiate his release, the director of his research lab, Vincent Geisser, said. – Reuters

Egypt’s talks with the International Monetary Fund are aimed at extending the implementation of measures called for under the country’s $8 billion loan program, not to secure more funds, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said Wednesday. – Bloomberg

While Israel’s attacks during the widening war have mostly been targeting Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, the Houthis, in contrast, have so far avoided a similar fate.  – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

Just days before the U.S. presidential election, North Korea launched an apparent intercontinental ballistic missile that stayed airborne longer than anything the Kim Jong Un regime had ever launched before. – Wall Street Journal

More than 100 North Koreans have gone missing after being caught by secret police while trying to defect from the isolated country or even for trying to call relatives in South Korea, a Seoul-based human rights group said on Thursday. – Reuters

South Korea announced on Thursday new export controls on materials needed to produce solid-fuel missiles in order to restrict North Korea’s ballistic missile development, Seoul’s foreign ministry said. – Reuters

Simone Gao writes: The bottom line is, Xi may not want to invade Taiwan as the leader of a new “Axis of Evil.” He expects sanctions if he takes Taiwan, but not a total cutoff from the West for a long period of time. One important takeaway from North Korea’s moves is that although China, Russia, North Korea and Iran all consider the West a common adversary, their alliance is not as firm or stable as it might seem. They do not fully trust one another and are willing to compromise each other’s interests when it benefits their own. – The Hill

Bruce Klingner writes: Even during a Taiwan crisis, the United States would remain inextricably bound to the defense of South Korea by its bilateral defense treaty commitments, continued integrated role in the U.S.–South Korea Combined Forces Command structure, existing bilateral operation and contingency plans, and its duties as Commander of United Nations Command […] To address security threats in the Indo–Pacific, the United States, its allies, and its partners need to implement an extensive campaign to augment their military forces, increase co-development and co-production of weapons and munitions, and enhance multilateral security cooperation. – Heritage

China

An official gauge of China’s manufacturing activity rebounded in October, snapping a five-month run in contractionary territory in a tentative sign of recovery as Beijing strives to revive the economy. – Wall Street Journal

China implied on Wednesday that if U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won the Nov. 5 election he could ‘discard’ Taiwan, saying the United States has always pursued an “America First” policy. – Reuters

Since Donald Trump hit Xi Jinping’s government with punitive tariffs in 2018, his push to cut the trade deficit has snowballed into a full-scale bipartisan effort to stop China from becoming the world’s biggest economy and obtaining technology that threatens American military superiority. – Bloomberg

Karishma Vaswani writes: This is not a friendship that either side can trust, but they need to work together to avoid sleepwalking into conflict. Both Xi and the next US president would be wise to remember that useful phrase: Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer. – Bloomberg

Zongyuan Zoe Liu writes: If economic conditions in China continue to deteriorate, Xi could pivot suddenly, perhaps softening his antagonism toward the West. As it watches China’s stimulus play out and Beijing’s likely inability to fix the country’s underlying economic troubles, Washington should avoid becoming so fixated on the perceived China threat that it overlooks potential opportunities to redefine U.S.-Chinese relations in the future. – Foreign Affairs

South Asia

Canada’s deepening dispute with India over its alleged campaign of violence against Sikhs in Canada could intensify Indian-based cyber espionage and hold back immigration, but analysts and experts see no immediate impact on trade. – Reuters

China and India have pulled back troops from the remaining two friction points on the disputed Himalayan border, ending a four-year stalemate that soured relations between the neighbors. – Bloomberg

Opponents of Myanmar’s military government on Wednesday welcomed the latest sanctions imposed by the European Union, the U.K. and Canada on individuals and entities supplying aviation fuel and equipment to the army, which has stepped deadly airstrikes. – Associated Press

The U.N. special envoy for Myanmar warned that the Southeast Asian nation is in crisis, with conflict escalating, criminal networks “out of control” and human suffering at unprecedented levels. – Associated Press

Asia

Elon Musk’s space company operates the world’s most powerful satellite-internet system near Earth. It still hasn’t reached Taiwan. The island democracy is racing to ensure that its government, military and people could stay online in the event of an invasion or blockade by China. – Wall Street Journal

Australia said it was boosting its missile defence capability amid “significant concerns” about China’s test of an ICBM in the South Pacific, and will bolster weapons stockpiles and exports to security partners as the region enters a new “missile age”. – Reuters

A top UN official on Wednesday urged a probe into the killings in Bangladesh during protests that led to the downfall of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, while also calling for minority protection and a national process of truth and healing. – Reuters

The leader of one of Taiwan’s last diplomatic allies in the Pacific said his nation is under increasing pressure from China to end its support for Taipei. – Bloomberg

Disaster at the polls has shattered the fantasies of Japan’s embattled prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, for a much greater role for Japan as a military power. – New York Sun

Riley Bailey and Frederick W. Kagan write: Ukraine (and Israel) are demonstrating that free societies with robust innovation centers and the ability and willingness to support decentralized innovation and creativity as well as highly flexible planning and operations can hold off much larger and, in Ukraine’s case, better resourced adversaries. Taiwan should take heart from this case study while exploring it closely for approaches that could be used, suitably modified, to defend the Republic of China. – Institute for the Study of War 

William Sposato writes: A stunning electoral defeat for Japan’s long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party has ushered in a new era of instability just at a time when the world needed it least. In an Oct. 27 snap election called by the new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its religious-backed coalition party, Komeito, saw deep losses and failed to secure a majority of seats in the lower house of Parliament, wiping out a previously comfortable majority. – Foreign Policy

Europe

At least 95 people have died after devastating flash floods in southeastern Spain, as emergency responders and dog teams searched thick mud and landslides for survivors. – Wall Street Journal

Europe is facing tight times, with the governments of the largest economies — Britain, France and Germany — confronting sluggish growth and soaring debt as they struggle to produce their budgets for next year. – Washington Post

Human rights lawyers have filed a court appeal in Berlin seeking to block a 150-metric-ton shipment of military-grade explosives aboard German cargo ship MV Kathrin which they say is to be delivered to Israel’s biggest defence contractor. – Reuters

The Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a Russian-led post-Soviet military bloc, plans to hold exercises in Belarus in September 2025, the Belarusian Defence Ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Greece is seeking stricter European Union migration policies as it braces for a potential surge in migrants and refugees due to ongoing war in the Middle East, a senior government official said Wednesday. – Associated Press

Russian opposition figures Ilya Yashin, Yulia Navalnaya, and Vladimir Kara-Murza have called for a major antiwar demonstration in Berlin on November 17 to demand the resignation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. – Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty

Belarus and Serbia have signed a cooperation agreement on fighting organized and hi-tech crime as well as on the joint training of police, special forces, and counterterrorism units, Serbia’s government said on October 30. – Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty

Vuk Vuksanovic writes: Any instability in the Balkans would be bad news for Turkey, which is already faced with conflicts in other neighboring regions. Thus. Ankara would do well to support E.U. efforts by using its political leverage to help break the deadlock in talks between Serbs and Kosovo Albanians. Otherwise, Turkey will see its weapons sales to the region used by local power-brokers to advance their own agendas. – War on the Rocks

Africa

At least 10 people were shot dead and another 63 injured by gunfire during post-election protests in Mozambique last week, medical associations said on Wednesday, as the country braced for further demonstrations. – Reuters

Senegal has raised $300 million by reopening a bond issued in June to cover financing needs for the 2024 budget after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) delayed disbursements due to audit findings, its finance ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Somalia has announced the expulsion of an Ethiopian diplomat, marking a further souring of relations between the neighbouring countries related to a port deal Addis Ababa has been negotiating with the breakaway region of Somaliland. – Reuters

The executive board of the International Monetary Fund has approved the seventh and eighth reviews of Kenya’s program, the IMF said on Wednesday, paving the way for the cash-strapped government to access a $606 million loan tranche. – Reuters

Mvemba Phezo Dizolele and Cameron Hudson write: Mali’s centralized governance system, a holdover from French colonial rule, was originally designed for control rather than citizen service, contributing to public perceptions of the military as protectors of the regime rather than the people. The military itself is viewed as an elite class that, through nepotism and self-preservation, prioritizes its own interests. Given these complexities, analysts argue for a strategic pause to the West’s call for democratic elections, allowing time for the CNSP to address these structural issues and rebuild Mali’s institutions on a more sustainable foundation. – Centre for Strategic and International Studies

Latin America

The Venezuelan government on Wednesday said it was recalling its ambassador in Brazil over what it described as “repeated interventionist and rude statements” from Brasilia, adding it was also summoning Brazil’s business envoy for talks. – Reuters

Argentina’s President Javier Milei on Wednesday replaced Foreign Affairs Minister Diana Mondino after she voted in favor of lifting the U.S. embargo against Cuba at the United Nations. – Reuters

Bolivian President Luis Arce on Wednesday called for the end of costly highway blockades that have paralyzed parts of the South American country and fueled an increasingly volatile conflict with his main political rival. – Reuters

The U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday overwhelmingly called on the United States to end its decades-long sanctions regime on Cuba, as the communist-run Caribbean island nation suffers its worst economic crisis in decades marked by collapsing infrastructure and shortages of basic goods. – Reuters

More than 1,740 people were reported killed or injured in Haiti from July to September, a nearly 30% increase over the previous trimester, according to the latest numbers released Wednesday by U.N. officials. – Associated Press

North America

In a series of terse resignation letters released Wednesday, eight of Mexico’s 11 Supreme Court justices said they would step down from their posts instead of participating in a contentious election of thousands of judges next year. The justices will all serve the remainder of their terms, most of which conclude in August. – New York Times

Mexico’s lower house of Congress approved sweeping new measures on Wednesday that would prevent legal challenges to constitutional amendments, allowing lawmakers to reshape the country’s charter without any judicial review — even from the Supreme Court. – New York Times

Two Mexican journalists were shot dead in less than 24 hours in western states, according to authorities, as the country faces a flare-up of violence in the region. – Reuters

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looked to have secured his immediate political future on Wednesday when the leader of a smaller party dismissed efforts to bring down the minority Liberal government. Reuters

Canada would have to double current defense spending by fiscal 2032-33 to achieve its stated goal of meeting NATO targets, an increase that could violate fiscal anchors put in place last year to control expenditures, a parliamentary watchdog said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The first place where many migrants sleep after entering Mexico from Guatemala is inside a large structure, a roof above and fenced-in sides on a rural ranch. They call it the “chicken coop” and they don’t get to leave until they pay the cartel that runs it. – Associated Press

United States

A spinoff of the Russian “troll factory” that targeted the 2016 US presidential election now appears to be at the heart of a disinformation campaign trying to sway Western and especially US audiences, according to an investigation by researchers at Clemson University’s Media Forensics Hub with CNN. – CNN

Many American voters are concerned that the ongoing Middle East conflict will escalate into an all-out regional war, a new poll finds. About half of voters are “extremely” or “very” worried about the possibility of a broader war in the region. – Associated Press

Anne-Marie Slaughter writes: Analysts of the shifting dynamics of the twenty-first century see the emergence of a multipolar order, but that is too simplistic a framework. The principal “poles” are not necessarily the governments that are leading the fight against climate change, for instance, or infectious disease, nor those preparing for the migration  [..] The twenty-first-century international order should be understood as a set of platforms for governmental and global actors to collaborate in tackling specific challenges.  – Foreign Affairs

Cybersecurity

An aggressive Chinese hacking campaign is the most active state cyber threat to Canada, the country’s signals intelligence agency said on Wednesday, in the latest warning about clandestine activity by Beijing. – Reuters

Hackers affiliated with North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau were involved in a Play ransomware attack identified by incident responders in September. – The Record

Less than a week before Americans head to the polls, foreign actors have not compromised the country’s election systems, a top U.S. cybersecurity official said on Wednesday. – The Record

Chris Carney writes: America’s tech companies play an indispensable role in fostering innovation, equipping the U.S. government with elite tools at scale, driving advancement, and safeguarding our nation. In fact, the six largest U.S. tech companies invest more in research and development than the entire Pentagon. When the stakes are such that the country that loses the cybersecurity edge likely will not gain it back, we can’t afford to handcuff our strongest, most important partners in this fight. – Washington Examiner

Defense

The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of F-16 fighter jet equipment and support to Argentina for an estimated $941 million, the Pentagon said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The Army’s 1st Multi-Domain Task Force has used a small number of Kraus Hamdani Aerospace K1000 Ultra Long-Endurance, solar-powered unmanned aircraft system across the Pacific theater in places like the Philippines and Guam in recent years. Now the Pentagon has ordered $20 million worth of the systems for the unit as well as special operators. – Defense News

When it comes online, the Air Force expects a new, more robust cloud-based system for cyber operations to allow airmen to better understand their network ecosystem and spot weak spots before adversaries do, Gen. Thomas Hensley, commander of the 16th Air Force said Tuesday. – Breaking Defense