Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel’s election officials and its internal intelligence service, Shin Bet, are investigating Tuesday’s vote after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party set off a firestorm with allegations that the vote was “stolen by Arab parties.” – Washington Post

The final vote count in Israel’s election, released early Friday local time, confirmed that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition nor the main opposition alliance won enough votes to form a government. – New York Times

Airlines flying to Israel will be required to submit crew information at least 48 hours before departure under new security measures introduced following an attack aboard a FlyDubai flight last month. – Bloomberg

For decades, many Palestinian citizens of Israel stayed away from the polls, refusing to legitimize a system they say has oppressed their people, sidelined their concerns, and failed to represent them. – CNN

The IDF may exit or reduce its presence over this coming weekend from the Hebron neighborhood it has occupied since last weekend, The Jerusalem Post has learned. – Jerusalem Post

IDF soldiers evacuated residents from a neighborhood in Hebron on Friday as part of preparations to demolish the homes of the terrorists who carried out last week’s attack in the city at Yehuda Junction. – Jerusalem Post

A soldier has been indicted for providing information to Iran, the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), Israel Police, and the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, announced in a joint statement Thursday.  – Jerusalem Post

Ten US Air Force (USAF) transport aircraft arrived at IAF bases in southern Israel as part of a larger Middle East air convoy transferring military equipment across the region, KAN News reported on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Earlier this year, Russian authorities issued a stern warning to a Siberian institute that researches the pathogens behind bubonic plague, anthrax and other diseases: It lacked a sufficient decontamination plan in the event bacteria accidentally escaped. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine’s military has paused its strikes against Russian oil refineries, people with knowledge of the operations said, after weeks of pressure from President Trump shook Kyiv’s confidence in U.S. support. – Wall Street Journal

A stout man with a graying beard, wearing a bright-blue Yandex-branded hoodie, shouted over the din of the cooling fans. “The servers installed in our data centers number in the tens of thousands, and they are necessary to ensure that Yandex services run without interruption,” he said, smiling widely and pointing to rows and stacks of black-and-silver boxes, glimmering with green lights and interconnected by cables. – Washington Post

At least 14 people were killed and more than a dozen wounded when a Russian drone slammed into a train platform in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday morning. – New York Times

Russia and Ukraine said on Thursday that demining operations around the Russian-held ​town of Oleshky in southern Ukraine had been completed and that an operation to bring aid and allow residents to leave was ready to begin. – Reuters

Russia supports any steps aimed at restoring relations with European countries, President Vladimir Putin said late on ​Thursday, adding the outbreak of any conflict would leave ‌a situation with no winners. – Reuters

Pentagon officials have in recent weeks asked several NATO countries to tone down their rhetoric regarding the threat posed by Russia, ​arguing that some statements by European leaders and officials have undermined continental security, four people familiar with the matter said. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the outreach from Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in a phone call this week, saying Moscow supports efforts to restore ties with Europe after years of confrontation over the war in Ukraine. – Bloomberg

Anna Husarska writes: It recounts the story of how, in the opening days of the full-scale invasion, a pro-Russian schoolteacher from Kherson offered townspeople a chance to send their children to a summer camp in occupied Crimea. After a few months, the mothers lose all contact with the kids. I can’t help but think that we are witnessing the birth of a new tragedy. And among Ukrainians, there is growing apprehension of what may follow — everything from disappearances to a repeat of the massacre of civilians in Bucha. – Washington Post

Alexey Kovalev writes: If the situation at the front deteriorates sharply or recruitment numbers plummet, Putin could sign a new decree. But that would be a public admission that the quiet system has failed, and any nationwide announcement would bring back the shock—and potential exodus—of September 2022. Until then, Russia will keep feeding its war machine as it does now: With a recruiter intent on meeting his quota and getting his cut, snatching men into an unmarked van with tinted windows in a crumbling post-industrial town thousands of miles from Moscow. – Foreign Policy

Lebanon

In a field overlooking a lush valley in southern Lebanon, residents of the village of ​Zibqin balanced on branches picking their olives while Lebanese Army soldiers stood nearby. – Reuters

At least four Lebanese ministers are boycotting a cabinet meeting on Thursday in protest of the state’s delay in referring Hezbollah to the Judicial Council over the Iran-backed group’s attempts to traffic hundreds of kilograms of explosives into Beirut, according to statements by the officials and media reports. – Jerusalem Post

US President Donald Trump pledged to secure a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon if Beirut agrees to join the Abraham Accords, a senior Gulf diplomatic source told the Lebanese newspaper Ad-Diyar. – Jerusalem Post

Gulf States

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded significantly, at times returning to and even surpassing their prewar volumes. But prices for the global benchmark Brent have once again climbed to around $110 a barrel, a level last seen in late April when exports were about half of what they are now. – Wall Street Journal

An oil spill off the United Arab Emirates that has prompted temporary restrictions on fishing and on access to several beaches has raised concerns over the risk of environmental contamination and the potential impact on desalination plants. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia has asked the Trump administration to “give diplomacy a chance” before US President Donald Trump makes a final decision on whether to launch military action against Iran, two regional sources told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

Allison Minor and Nate Swanson writes: A Gulf-brokered outcome on the Strait of Hormuz is. In fact, it may be the only way to stop a mutually hurting stalemate that is poised to last years and cause mounting damage to global markets. The strategies that states have employed to blunt the consequences of global oil and gas shortages will likely start wearing thin in 2027, as governments deplete their strategic reserves, Chinese demand increases, and alternative supply routes out of the Gulf come under Iranian attack. The economic consequences of the conflict could even undermine the domestic stability of the most vulnerable Gulf states or reignite old conflicts, as happened in Yemen this year. A Gulf-brokered deal, then, is the least bad outcome. Such is the irony of this conflict: the bystanders that have already lost the most will need to save the warring parties from themselves. – Foreign Affairs

Korean Peninsula

North Korea’s ​Defence Ministry said in a statement ‌published by state media KCNA on Friday that the South Korea-US Freedom Flag ​air defence drills were increasing ​tensions on the Korean Peninsula. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called for his country to seize “absolute superiority” in drone technology as he attended an exhibition and demonstration of unmanned aeronautical technology, state media KCNA reported on Friday. – Reuters

South Korea will respond firmly to ​protect the military border with North Korea ‌despite claims by Pyongyang that it is conducting operations on its side of the line, Seoul’s national ​security adviser Wi Sung-lac said on Friday. – Reuters

South Korea’s National ​Security Adviser Wi ‌Sung-lac said on Thursday that ​Seoul was ​still considering various options ⁠regarding a ​possible deployment to ​the Strait of Hormuz, including sending a ​maritime patrol ​aircraft. – Reuters

Germany and South Korea set out an enhanced security partnership on Thursday, arguing that growing cooperation between Moscow and ​Pyongyang showed that European and Asian security were increasingly ‌intertwined. – Reuters

Ruth Pollard writes: South Korea shouldn’t push too hard on the submarine issue, Panda said, or there’s a risk the whole project could fall apart. Given how uneasy their relationship is right now, Lee’s decision to tie so much political capital to a timetable that is generating such resistance from the US is a bold but ultimately fraught plan. The risk is that it will fester for the remainder of his term. For South Korea’s sake, and that of stability on the peninsula, he would be better off biding his time. – Bloomberg

South Asia

A flood caused by the Shintaphu glacial lake bursting its banks has washed ​away infrastructure at the Gasa Tshachu natural hot ‌springs in the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, media reports said on Friday. – Reuters

A Pakistani anti-terrorism court on Thursday sentenced prominent ​human rights lawyers Imaan Mazari and her husband, Hadi Ali Chattha, ‌to 10 years in prison in a security breach case, her family said. – Reuters

The Southeast Asian bloc’s special envoy met Myanmar’s foreign minister during a visit to the country and discussed its ​civil war and humanitarian access, according to official statements. – Reuters

Europe

Spain’s socialist government is now under pressure to explain how the same high-speed rail line produced two devastating crashes in less than a year. – Wall Street Journal

Christine Lagarde will step down as president of the European Central Bank, triggering a contest for one of the continent’s top jobs at a time when debt problems and resurgent inflation are looming over the economy. – Wall Street Journal

Ireland’s economy grew rapidly for a second straight quarter in the three months through September, boosting hopes for a continued expansion across the eurozone as a whole despite higher energy costs. – Wall Street Journal

A man accused of killing one person and wounding seven in a shooting spree near Paris last week admitted that he had targeted people “of a Muslim, African or North African type,” France’s antiterrorism prosecutor said at a news conference on Thursday. – New York Times

In La Castellane, a neighborhood in the French city of Marseille famous for producing Zinedine Zidane, the soccer star, spray-painted signs advertising cocaine pointed drivers to parking lots where dealers openly sold drugs. – New York Times

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz ​said on Friday that the European Union will ‌take the lead in shaping a better offer when free trade and the rules-based trading order come under pressure. – Reuters

The student-led protest movement that unseated ​Serbia’s longtime leader Aleksandar Vucic in a weekend election called on Thursday for the resignation of leading public figures and investigations into ‌alleged corruption during Vucic’s tenure. – Reuters

President Emmanuel Macron has accused far-right politicians including in Marine Le ​Pen’s National Rally of fostering an “atmosphere of racism” across France, days after a racially motivated killing in a ‌Paris suburb. – Reuters

Candidates to replace European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde have been positioning for months but Lagarde’s resignation on Thursday kick-starts a formal selection process that is expected to wrap up in the coming weeks. – Reuters

Hungary’s leader and a top French official rejected the idea of former strongman Viktor Orban leading the United Nations, as the race to find the next leader of the global organization heats up. – Bloomberg

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pressed ahead in calling for Canada to become an “associate member,” even after the bloc’s member states rejected that language. – Bloomberg

The leader of Poland’s largest opposition party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, said talks to exit the European Union would be a way to force change within the bloc, prompting criticism from the country’s pro-EU government. – Bloomberg

Berlin mayoral candidate Elif Eralp is facing accusations of hypocrisy from political opponents after private remarks about “people with connections to Hamas” raised questions about her party’s approach to policing and the Middle East conflict. – Politico

The European Union should ready its Anti-Coercion Instrument, otherwise known as its “trade bazooka,” for use against Washington over its push to raise EU drug prices, Belgium’s deputy prime minister has said. – Politico

Switzerland’s Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) has suspended funding of CHF1.25 million ($1.52 million) to Doctors Without Borders (MSF) following reports that the humanitarian NGO failed to adequately inform Swiss authorities of the scale of the reports of sexual misconduct by staff in Chad. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Worse, Mr. Healey has repeated the old Labour political mistake of listing all the spending he won’t cut. He suggested Thursday—a day after releasing the budget—that the administration won’t cut social-welfare spending before the next election, due by 2029. Previous Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer attempted to reform the welfare program for disabled working-age people in order to free up billions of pounds for defense spending, and his backbenchers forced him into an embarrassing retreat. Mr. Burnham won’t even try. Add this episode to the long and growing list of examples of how Europe’s expanding welfare states strangle economies and undermine national security. – Wall Street Journal

Marc Champion writes: Vucic acknowledged his defeat quickly and with grace, which is far from a given today. He deserves recognition for that. But he also pledged to return to beat the student movement and its leaders sooner than they think, so his equanimity may reflect the confidence of a man who knows the booby traps that await his opponents — because he put them there. Unless Student List’s professors can find their own Magyar or Djindjic, Vucic’s prediction could well prove correct. – Bloomberg 

Eduardo Castellet Nogués and Marshall Reid write: Acting as a connector of parties and an economic gravitational pole, the EU can both gain a position of leadership and contribute to stabilizing this brave new world. The plan will also need to be sold to the people of Europe, which won’t be easy as Euroskeptic movements surge in many EU member states. But carrying on the current path will only result in a weaker, less prosperous Europe. Regardless of ideology, European political leaders will have to explain to their voters that their national prosperity depends on Europe’s prosperity. On their own, European states are vulnerable and subject to external pressure. Together, they could be a colossus. – Foreign Policy

The Americas

Interim President Delcy Rodríguez and opposition leader María Corina Machado laid out competing visions for Venezuela on Thursday, sounding the opening gun of a power struggle between the White House-backed leader and the country’s most popular political figure. – Wall Street Journal

Flávio Bolsonaro, the Brazilian presidential candidate who faces multiple criminal investigations, is staying in Florida on a temporary status that was given following orders by President Trump, and will likely be granted permanent residency later, U.S. officials said. – New York Times

A close ally of Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro on Thursday said AI chatbot ChatGPT was responsible for language in a letter briefly posted on social media by the right-wing ​lawmaker describing himself as Brazil’s rightful “president-elect,” while insisting the mistake did not alter Bolsonaro’s view ‌that the election was illegitimate. – Reuters

Brazil’s surprising reelection of leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will have implications for the global flow of commodities from the world’s largest food exporter and key mining prospect, analysts said this week. – Reuters

Peruvian President Keiko Fujimori on Thursday visited the maximum-security mega-prison built by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, known as the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT). She is the latest Latin American leader to visit the prison that Bukele said is meant to house the most dangerous gang members. – Associated Press

Pope Leo XIV’s visit to Argentina comes amid allegations of sexual abuse and other crimes involving Catholic clergy and lay members, with survivors demanding stronger action from the Vatican against those accused or convicted. – Associated Press

Juan Pablo Spinetto writes: In such circumstances, it’s easy to understand how Machado would want to punish her rivals. But now is not the time. Venezuela is closer than ever to a genuine transition, which which will be key to attracting the foreign investment Venezuela needs. And for Machado, a more conciliatory stance would not only smooth the transition, it would also show that she has the political skill to be the president Venezuela so desperately needs and so richly deserves. – Bloomberg

United States

The man who lobbed gasoline bombs at a pro-Israel rally in ​Colorado last year, injuring several people including a woman who later died, pleaded guilty on Thursday to federal hate-crime charges, the US Department ‌of Justice said. – Reuters

The Pentagon’s watchdog is refusing a bipartisan request to investigate recent disruptions to Starlink and Starshield satellite internet service to Ukraine, raising concerns among lawmakers that the military and even its independent inspector general are reluctant to confront the influence that SpaceX chief Elon Musk has over defense communications. – Associated Press

A group of U.S. lawmakers on Thursday urged Secretary of State Marco Rubio not to support Colombia’s plans to restart aerial spraying of coca, the plant used to make cocaine, warning that the practice could threaten human health and fragile ecosystems in the Amazon rainforest. – Associated Press

The Department of Homeland Security for the first time has used one of its recently acquired planes to send deportees to Mexico, potentially ending months of uncertainty about jets bought under former Secretary Kristi Noem. – Bloomberg

Editorial: That’s the goal. Everyone knows why the global left wants to redefine genocide, and it has nothing to do with Myanmar’s mistreatment of the Rohingya. That can be found genocidal with no change in legal standard. The change would be needed only to help South Africa’s case against Israel—where the evidence falls far short—and then to hold over the U.S. as a threat. We hope Mr. Iwasawa and fellow judge Bogdan Aurescu of Romania enjoyed their trips to New York this week. Unless something changes to avert U.S. sanctions, it could be their last. As Mr. Waltz made clear, their court’s credibility and its future are at stake. – Wall Street Journal

Hugh Grant-Chapman writes: The White House report misdiagnoses the challenges plaguing the U.S.-China trade relationship, and its recommended enforcement actions are misaligned to resolve unintended consequences of U.S. tariff differentials. A sustainable path forward involves more rigorous analysis of global trade patterns, reappraisal of the market-distorting effects of U.S. tariff differentials, and frank dialogue with trade partners and industry leaders about the utility and feasibility of new trade rules. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Defense

Under the cover of darkness, American jet fighters loaded with air-to-air missiles catapult off the deck of the aircraft carrier USS George Washington and make their way toward the Strait of Hormuz to shoot down Iranian cruise missiles and drones aimed at commercial ships. – Wall Street Journal

The Pentagon said Thursday that it has made a criminal referral in an alleged leak case, claiming the ouster of a top general was necessary “to protect sensitive information.” – Washington Post

This summer, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth asked a Republican lawmaker what he thought the odds were that Congress would pass the Trump administration’s record $1.5 trillion defense budget request. – Washington Post

General Dynamics revealed a new artificial intelligence-enabled, portable communications system on Thursday called the Vion, a Mission Partner Environment solution. – Defense News

In a future battlespace, boats, vehicles and weapons could deploy and travel with outer shells or coverings that change with the terrain — or even light and time of year — to add an extra layer of concealment. – Defense News

The United States, Australia, India and Japan will carry out this year’s iteration of the annual Malabar naval exercise in the waters near Japan next week. – USNI News

A U.S. military base in Japan has banned vehicles made by the Chinese company BYD, citing security concerns. – Military.com

The Army gave the nod to Lockheed Martin to further develop a new missile interceptor that’s expected to have better engagement range, altitude, velocity and maneuverability than legacy systems, the service announced Thursday. – DefenseScoop

Henry Ziemer writes: The United States should also take care to learn the right lessons from its Latin American partners: The tactics and equipment that may work along the southwest land border may not be suitable for base defense, just as the squad-level tactics used to fend off cartel UAS attacks may not necessarily be indicative of how a peer competitor would employ uncrewed systems in a future high-intensity conflict. Nevertheless, by joining its southern neighbors in their fight against illicit drones, the United States can reap a wealth of vital information for protecting its own homeland, infrastructure, and people. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Hely Desai writes: The International Atomic Energy Agency should develop a model-notification framework drawing on existing nuclear risk-reduction arrangements. It could also establish dedicated working groups to examine extreme and conflict-related scenarios involving small and advanced reactors and other emerging reactor technologies. Building on the International Atomic Energy Agency’s existing work on safety, security, and safeguards, the groups could conduct structured scenario exercises and wargame how different reactor configurations might interact with armed conflict, including attacks on or near nuclear facilities, co-location with military assets, transportable reactors, prolonged loss of external support, and other circumstances that may fall outside conventional design-basis assumptions. As reactors move into more varied, dispersed, and specialized settings, the rules governing their protection and conduct in crises will need to be reconsidered accordingly. – War on the Rocks