Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received a rebuke from Israeli voters Tuesday but retained enough support to set up a high-stakes showdown in the coming weeks over whether he will stay in office. – Wall Street Journal

One of the most striking results from the election in Israel on Tuesday was the unusually strong showing by two leading Arab parties, whose voters turned out in record numbers to express their opposition to the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. – New York Times

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and rival Gadi Eisenkot offered competing claims to lead Israel after Tuesday’s election, with Netanyahu calling for a right-wing government and Eisenkot saying voters had rejected the longtime Israeli leader, even as ​exit polls left their blocs deadlocked. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners made a last-ditch push on Tuesday to get their ​supporters to the polls, warning of surging Arab voter turnout, a tactic Arab politicians denounced as racist ‌and inflammatory. – Reuters

The Israeli ​military said on Tuesday it ‌had apprehended an Egyptian civilian overnight after he crossed a border fence ​from Egyptian territory into ​Israel near Nitzana. The man was transferred ⁠to security forces for further ​questioning, the military said, without ​providing additional details. – Reuters

Israel’s shekel jumped nearly 2% to a five-week high on Tuesday as high voter turnout lifted ​traders’ bets that the country’s first election since the October 7, 2023, ‌Hamas-led attacks could end Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s tenure. – Reuters

Israeli troops fired a stun grenade on Tuesday to disperse Palestinians who gathered to protest against an Israeli military operation that has displaced thousands of residents from a neighbourhood in Hebron in the ​Israeli-occupied West Bank. – Reuters

Israel’s election campaign has been consumed by Iran, national security and the impact of three years of war, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, rarely straying from the theme. – Bloomberg

For months, Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot has pitched himself as a modest alternative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, campaigning more on reliability than a markedly different approach to the country’s myriad security challenges. – Bloomberg

US President Donald Trump took credit for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s performance during the election on Wednesday morning by claiming his endorsement shifted the election’s momentum. – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s two main Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, were projected to win seven and 12 seats, respectively, according to polling data published by Channels 11, 12, and 13. – Jerusalem Post

Eight new outposts are being established in the Hebron Hills in response to Friday’s attack at Yehuda Junction, the Mount Hebron Regional Council announced on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Intel announced on Monday that it signed a definitive agreement to acquire Israeli quantum computing software company Classiq, a move the US chipmaker said would strengthen its push into quantum computing and position it as a full-stack provider of quantum hardware and software solutions. – Jerusalem Post

With about 60% of the votes counted and neither bloc holding a majority needed to form a government, Democrats chairman Yair Golan declared Wednesday morning that “Netanyahu has lost” and called for a coalition that includes Arab parties. Golan said nothing to reporters gathered outside his home but laid out his plan in a post on X. – Ynet

The IDF announced that it had eliminated three members of Hamas’ elite Nukhba force in separate airstrikes across the Gaza Strip last week, including an operative accused of participating in the October 7, 2023, abductions of Israeli civilians. – Ynet

Bret Stephens writes: What is at stake is whether a people who have borne the burden of Hamas’s terror and Iran’s missiles and a nonstop state of emergency that would have broken weaker democracies and the unceasing chorus of global condemnation that is one part ignorance, two parts bigotry and three parts self-delusion should have a government worthy of their sacrifice, steadiness and courage. This week, a free and sovereign nation once again has the chance to elect one. – New York Times

Eric Wagholtz writes: By staying steady, fixing domestic policy blunders, and methodically repairing global ties, Israel preserves a position of strength. This continuity ensures uninterrupted military focus for Israel. It guarantees a reliable, predictable democratic partner to advance U.S. interests in a highly volatile region. Regionally, a stable Israel deters further escalation from enemies, creating the environment needed to resume normalizations in the Middle East. – Washington Examiner

Daniel-Dylan Bohmer writes: In the meantime, the incumbent government would continue to conduct the affairs of state. If all efforts to form a government fail, another election could become necessary. A return to the seemingly endless rounds of elections of six years ago. The consequences of such a political crisis would likely extend far beyond Israel’s borders. This is particularly true of security policy, the future course of the war and potential regional agreements, relations with the United States, and efforts to bring greater stability to the Middle East. – Politico

Shir Perets writes: Whether a Netanyahu-Eisenkot unity government can meet that responsibility remains an open question. What Tuesday’s election has made clear is that neither leader can resolve the country’s political deadlock through declarations of victory alone. The precedent for cooperation already exists. Eisenkot served in Netanyahu’s emergency wartime government following October 7, before departing alongside Benny Gantz in June 2024. That experience demonstrated that political rivals can participate in the same government during a national crisis. – Jerusalem Post

Barak Seener writes: The Pentagon’s designation of Israel as a “model ally” captures a central feature of the Trump administration’s strategic outlook: partners should possess the capabilities and political determination to shoulder more of their own defense while advancing shared interests. Netanyahu has sought to make Israel precisely that kind of partner. By linking technological innovation to domestic defense production, offensive military doctrine to regional power projection, and military strength to diplomatic outreach, he has helped reposition Israel as more than a small state defending vulnerable borders. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

The Trump administration is exploring a new concession to Russia: lifting sanctions on the country’s flagship government investment fund, long viewed by U.S. officials as one of the Kremlin’s most powerful tools of international influence. – New York Times

The leaders of Finland and Norway made a rare phone call to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Tuesday as part of the ongoing efforts to end the war in Ukraine. – New York Times

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces were retaking territory through a series of offensives, including one operation previously unannounced in which Kyiv’s troops used gas ​pipelines to outflank Russian positions. – Reuters

Kyiv plans to allocate 1 billion hryvnias ($22 million) to ​water crossings over the River Dnipro which bisects the ‌city, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Tuesday, after a spate of Russian attacks on bridges. Russia has disrupted transport for Kyiv residents ​by hitting bridges this month, part of a significant ​step up in drone and missile strikes on ⁠logistics in and around the Ukrainian capital in recent ​months. – Reuters

Romanian President Nicusor Dan on Tuesday called an alleged Russian sabotage plot last month a “grave violation” of the NATO member’s sovereignty and security, at a time when many fear Moscow’s war in neighboring Ukraine risks spreading beyond its borders. – Associated Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin will host dozens of African leaders in Moscow as the Kremlin seeks to deepen ties with a continent that has taken on greater strategic importance for Russia since its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. – Bloomberg

President Donald Trump said a meeting would soon be arranged involving Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an effort to end the war between their countries, now in its fifth year. – Bloomberg

Ukraine is mounting grenade launchers on ground robots, allowing its forces to bring useful firepower closer to Russian troops without sending in soldiers to pull the trigger. – Business Insider

Kateryna Odarchenko writes: Ukraine can look to Israel’s long experience of maintaining political competition and electoral institutions despite repeated security crises. The lesson is not that one country is “more democratic” than the other. It is that democracy during war has two dimensions: institutional resilience and civic resilience. Elections matter. But so do independent institutions, public accountability, civil society, free expression and citizens’ willingness to remain politically engaged. A democracy is resilient when war does not permanently change the rules of political life. And perhaps that is the most important lesson Israel and Ukraine can offer each other. – Times of Israel

Derek Bisaccio writes: As European leaders prepare for a November meeting to iron out next year’s assistance to Ukraine, the EU is already pushing other partners to increase their contributions to Kyiv. The situation is becoming more urgent. Ukraine has largely exhausted its stockpile of interceptors, leaving its cities and energy grid vulnerable to Russian attack. The Ukrainian military intelligence agency HUR recently estimated that Russia can produce 10,000 long-range strike drones and decoys each month. Mounting damage increases Ukraine’s financial needs, as the country scrambles to keep the lights on. – Defense One

Middle East & North Africa

An Egyptian court ordered the closure on Tuesday of a prominent independent news website, Mada Masr, and detained its editor in chief, the outlet said, sparking an outcry from rights groups of an intensifying media crackdown. – New York Times

Egypt, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates aligned with Greece to denounce a Turkey-Libya maritime accord as a threat to regional security and international legal order ​in a long-standing dispute over sea borders in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. – Reuters

Jordan and Syria have agreed ​to form a joint ‌security committee to examine the details and ​repercussions of ​recent Jordanian airstrikes against Islamic ⁠State sites ​in Syria, the two ​countries’ foreign ministries said in a joint statement ​early on Wednesday. – Reuters

An Egyptian court convicted the editor-in-chief of leading independent news website Mada Masr ‌of running it without a licence on Tuesday, ordered the site closed and held her in custody for five hours, her lawyers and the outlet said. – Reuters

Turkey may reach agreements to make acquisitions or further explore for hydrocarbons by the end of the ​year as part of its target to produce 1 million barrels ‌of oil and natural gas a day, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A drone was ​shot down near Baghdad’s fortified ‌Green Zone on Tuesday, and the interception caused the loud sound that ​was heard across parts ​of the Iraqi capital, Iraq’s Security ⁠Media Cell said in ​a statement. – Reuters

An Iraqi court on Tuesday sentenced six French nationals to life in prison and a seventh to ​15 years after convicting them of membership in ‌Islamic State, a Reuters witness inside the courtroom said. – Reuters

Jordan said on Tuesday its forces had killed more than 20 Islamic State militants ‌in airstrikes on southern Syria the previous evening, following a deadly church attack in Jordan that authorities linked to militants operating across the border. – Reuters

A Turkish parliamentary committee approved a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on Tuesday, as tensions between Riyadh and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels grow. – Associated Press

China

French soccer star Kylian Mbappé became the latest global sports figure to run afoul of China on Tuesday, leading several sponsors to cut ties with him and a state broadcaster to black out his games. – Wall Street Journal

A brutal season has arrived in China’s car market, among the most troubled in the world. Through September, Chinese consumers have bought about 22% fewer passenger vehicles this year than in the same period last year. – Wall Street Journal

China’s CXMT plans to start production of HBM3E, ​an advanced type of high-bandwidth memory chip used with AI processors, despite as little as 20% of the chips it makes ‌being usable, two people familiar with the matter said. – Reuters

Taiwan is “provoking confrontation” and stirring anti-China sentiment, a Chinese government spokesperson said on Wednesday, after Taiwanese prosecutors indicted five people for plotting to ​attack a Taiwanese comedian whose shows mocked Beijing. – Reuters

China is highly concerned about conflicts in the Middle East and ​surrounding regions and Beijing will send an envoy ‌to the relevant countries in the near future, foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said at a daily press conference on ​Tuesday. – Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday extended condolences to the family of former Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, who ​died last week, while calling on Japan’s current leadership to “safeguard ‌the political foundation” of ties that have been strained since late last year. – Reuters

As hundreds of China’s top politicians gather in Beijing this week, President Xi Jinping is facing a problem of his own making: His sweeping purges are draining the pipeline he needs to staff senior roles next term. – Reuters

Asia

Hundreds of Indonesian security personnel were deployed on Wednesday in anticipation of student protests against several of ​President Prabowo Subianto’s policies, as well as his ‌government’s handling of forest fires. – Reuters

The Southeast Asian bloc ASEAN’s special envoy on Myanmar will lead a humanitarian ​mission to the country starting on Wednesday, ‌ASEAN chair the Philippines said. – Reuters

Malaysian customs said on Wednesday that it had seized about 49.5 million ringgit ($12.11 million) worth ​of advanced artificial intelligence chips this month, as authorities ‌close in on a syndicate suspected of smuggling high-performance semiconductors through the country’s main airport. – Reuters

Thailand’s data centre committee said on Tuesday that it would establish a set of ​minimum requirements for data centre operators, including ‌standards for location and land use, fuel storage and water management infrastructure as well as an environmental code of ​practice. – Reuters

James Durso writes: The Samarkand meeting was useful, but it was not a breakthrough. Central Asia wants investment, market access, and the freedom to maintain relations with multiple powers. The United States wants critical minerals, secure transport routes, and strategic influence. Those interests can align, but only if Washington offers credible commercial alternatives to the competition (ie, China’s Belt and Road Initiative) and follows through promptly, where China excels. – National Interest

Africa

Cyril Ramaphosa, the president of South Africa, deployed more than 500 soldiers to the port city of Durban on Tuesday, a week after a foreign national was brutally beaten to death there during an anti-immigrant protest. – New York Times

Democratic Republic of Congo’s main opposition coalition on Tuesday refused to back an armed rebellion ​led by former President Joseph Kabila and ‌renewed its criticism of proposed reforms that would extend President Felix Tshisekedi’s time in power, calling instead for all ​sides to hold dialogue. – Reuters

A group of 37 suspected illegal miners died in detention in ‌Nigeria as a result of severe overcrowding, poor ventilation and neglect, according to a government investigation into their deaths. – Reuters

An Islamic State-aligned ​insurgency in eastern Congo generates most of its revenue from gold production and smuggling, allowing it to finance ‌its own operations, a report said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Tanzanian opposition leader Tundu Lissu, who was charged with treason last year, has started ​a hunger strike to protest his inability to access his lawyers, ‌his party said. – Reuters

At least 60 people were killed in two separate attacks in Ethiopia’s conflict-hit Oromiya region ​in the past week, the Ethiopian Orthodox Church ‌said. – Reuters

Dozens of Somali soldiers were killed in a major battle with al Shabaab in southern ​Somalia, two soldiers told Reuters, while the defence ‌ministry said government forces killed about 75 militants. – Reuters

The number of people fleeing violence in Ethiopia into neighboring Kenya has risen to 36,000, the United Nations said Tuesday, as fighting near the border town of Moyale continues to displace civilians, mostly women and children. – Associated Press

More than 100 people were killed in a Sudanese military drone strike on a busy market in Nyala, the capital city of the South Darfur province in southwestern Sudan, said Emergency Lawyers, a rights group tracking violence in the country, in a statement Tuesday. – Associated Press

The fast-moving Ebola outbreak in Congo has reached 10,000 confirmed cases, government data showed Tuesday, as health authorities race to slow the spread of the disease in multiple African countries. – Associated Press

At least 62 people have been killed after gunmen attacked a community in northeastern Nigeria, the country’s emergency agency said Tuesday. – Associated Press

North America

Cuba is in the midst of its worst economic crisis in decades, as escalating U.S. sanctions and a fuel blockade continue to create shortages of food, fuel and other basic goods. But as the communist government’s state-run institutions fail, the island’s private sector is beginning to take off, thanks to a wave of overhauls that have opened up Cuba’s economy more than at any time since the revolution. – Wall Street Journal

Costa Rica has locked up the first 123 inmates in a new mega-prison, built with the help of the Salvadoran ​government in the outskirts of capital San José, the country’s ‌justice ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

El Salvador has sent about 1,000 troops to Haiti after four Salvadoran members of a UN-backed security mission ​went missing in a gang ambush on the outskirts of the capital on October 18, a security official in Haiti told Reuters ‌on Tuesday. – Reuters

Mexico’s National Electoral Institute (INE) promised on Tuesday to carry ‌out an exhaustive, independent and transparent overhaul to guarantee its continuity, after its chief resigned over allegations of irregularities and corruption. – Reuters

The Canadian government will introduce a new bill on Tuesday to allow people to request being euthanized ​at a later date when they have lost the ‌mental capacity to make that decision, in a potential further expansion of one of the world’s most liberal assisted dying programs. – Reuters

U.S. and Cuban officials engaged in a stunning shouting match on the floor of the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, the latest in a series of public spats between the longtime adversaries over Washington’s escalating economic campaign against Havana. – Associated Press

The United Nations is set to vote Wednesday on a resolution condemning the decades-long U.S. economic embargo on Cuba as the Trump administration intensifies its campaign to undermine Cuba’s socialist government, including by threatening military intervention. – Associated Press

Editorial: The more than 800 political prisoners still behind bars in Cuba were unavailable for comment, but the U.S. Ambassador could hardly have asked for a better demonstration of the Cuban regime’s character. “I know that you don’t like to hear these hard truths,” Mr. Waltz told the delegation from Havana, “but I am speaking for the Cuban people.” This is in the best tradition of U.S. diplomacy at the U.N., rejecting the lies of the world’s tyrannies and holding them to account. – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

The US Federal Election Commission’s website was targeted by a hacker or hackers, according to an email seen by Reuters, disrupting the agency’s electronic filings ​system a week before the November 3 elections. – Reuters

Anthropic has planted a flag on AI regulation, saying that courts should have the authority to block AI programs that pose serious risks, and AI companies should develop kill switches for their technology and have outside safety auditors embedded alongside employees. – Politico 

Anthropic said its AI systems could drastically reshape the software and cybersecurity sectors in the “near term,” while also laying out a litany of cybersecurity and regulatory risks facing the company as it prepares to go public. – CyberScoop