Fdd's overnight brief

Afghanistan

Mawlawi Zubair Mutmaeen used to run Taliban suicide-bombing squads in Kabul. On a recent day, in his new role as police chief for one of the Afghan capital’s districts, he was busy mediating a marital dispute. – Wall Street Journal 

Taliban representatives attended their first international conference since the movement took power in Afghanistan in August, gathering with senior officials from Russia, China and other countries in Moscow, where they came under pressure to form a more inclusive government and pursue a friendly policy toward the country’s neighbors. – Wall Street Journal 

The top Republican on the House Defense Appropriations Committee is raising questions on whether biometric data was collected on the thousands of now-released terrorists from Bagram Air Base prison in Afghanistan, and pressing the White House on whether the location of these individuals is known. – Fox News  

With Afghanistan in deep economic crisis and its health service in disarray, the Red Cross, with decades of experience treating the war’s victims, is one of the few centres that can supply prosthetic limbs. – Reuters  

To stave off the worst consequences, Taliban leaders made a pragmatic choice: they requested that former officials within the previous government return to work. Taliban officials reportedly requested that technocrats within the former government’s Finance Ministry and central bank return to work, acknowledging that they understood how to run the country and the group’s members did not. – The National Interest  

Turkey

Urged by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to treat Syrians escaping the war as guests, Turkish citizens widely accepted the newcomers — at least at first. Yet in many places, the welcome has waned and the long-term presence of Syrian refugees has become a bitterly contentious issue in the political arena. – New York Times  

A Turkish court has sent to jail pending trial six suspects, including four Russians, accused of espionage after they were detained on suspicion of preparing armed attacks on Chechen dissidents, state broadcaster TRT Haber said on Thursday. – Reuters 

Michael Rubin writes: Biden’s inner circle may continue to spin the recent Afghanistan disaster as inevitable if not wise, but it was neither. They may also believe that what happens in Afghanistan stays in Afghanistan, but it does not. Autocrats are attracted to American weakness the way flies are to honey. The perception that America is weak, combined with Erdogan’s ego and domestic problems, suggests a perfect storm is brewing. – Washington Examiner 

Zvi Bar’el writes: Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems has created a deep rift between Ankara and Washington that began during the Trump administration and has grown wider under President Joe Biden. For Russia, the deal was not only good business but won it a new friend at America’s cost. To preserve their friendship, both Moscow and Ankara are not at all anxious to enter into a military conflict over Idlib. – Haaretz 

Lebanon

Lebanese leaders indicated a willingness to continue negotiations with Israel about the countries’ maritime border, in a meeting with US Senior Advisor for Global Energy Security Amos Hochstein in Beirut on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post 

David Gardner writes: Last week’s street fighting in Beirut was not just the deadliest violence in the Lebanese capital for more than a decade. It is part of a battle waged by Hizbollah, the Iran-backed politico-military force, and its allies to ensure the judicial investigation into the August 2020 explosion in Beirut goes nowhere. If they get their way and extinguish this last flicker of the rule of law, Lebanon will be well on the way to becoming an Iranian protectorate on the Mediterranean. – Financial Times 

Hanin Ghaddar writes: A political bargain to sideline Bitar would eliminate the only sovereign space left within Lebanon’s institutions. The only other choice is to protect Bitar and ensure a free and fair election in March. Hezbollah will try to fight the second scenario, probably by threatening more insecurity and violence. Yet the civil unrest scenario is risky for the group—this strategy has already backfired three times in the past three months. – Washington Institute 

Gulf States

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates reiterated their support for Bahrain’s plans to balance its budget, a move expected to help their neighbour in the debt capital markets despite delays in plans to fix its heavily indebted finances. The three Gulf allies extended a $10 billion aid package to Bahrain in 2018 to help it avoid a credit crunch. – Reuters  

Bobby Ghosh writes: Despite the bonhomie on display in that photograph of the three princes, the UAE and Qatar remain wary of each other, and the ties between and Emiratis and Saudis are being tested by a growing economic rivalry. The companies Sheikh Tahnoon heads, given their scale and the breadth of their interests, will undoubtedly be in the vanguard of that competition. – Bloomberg  

Jon B. Alterman writes: Saudis see their future success built on the foundation of a partnership with the United States. The Biden administration should be looking for ways to partner with Saudis and others on projects that help move the Middle East in a direction that advances mutual interests. The United States has a stake in the future of Saudi Arabia, and the Saudis are highly incentivized to work with the United States. That creates leverage, and the administration should use it. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

China

China tested a hypersonic missile in August that orbited the globe before heading toward its target, adding a new capability to Beijing’s already sizable military buildup, U.S. officials said. U.S. officials and weapons experts outside government have speculated the missile program might be intended as a way to evade U.S. missile defenses with a nuclear-armed system. – Wall Street Journal 

China is pulling out the stops to ease its worst power crunch in two decades, reversing course on earlier ambitions to curb coal use as it sets new policies to revive production and loosen imports of the electricity-generating fuel. – Wall Street Journal  

China and Russia are beating the United States in the race to send people to Mars, and NASA’s target date of 2033 is looking like a long shot. […]And the propulsion is only one of three major areas in which U.S. efforts remain deficient, according to a senior NASA official who testified alongside Myers, while Russia and China have conducted more focused investments in the novel technology. – Washington Examiner 

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Wednesday he is concerned about Chinese hypersonic missiles, days after a media report that Beijing had tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic glide weapon. – Reuters 

The United States said on Wednesday that China’s industrial policies “skew the playing field” against imported goods and services, as well as their foreign providers, and that Washington would pursue all means to secure reforms. – Reuters 

President Joe Biden’s nominee to be U.S. ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, took a tough line on dealings with China at his Senate confirmation hearing on Wednesday, saying “genocide in Xinjiang,” abuses in Tibet, and bullying of Taiwan must stop. – Reuters 

China has for the first time showed off retired 1950s era fighter jets that have been converted to unmanned drones, with satellite photos of two of its east coast bases near Taiwan showing a large number of the jets on site. – Defense News 

Susan Thornton writes: Mr. Biden should, of course, continue to call out China’s human rights abuses or pressure on Taiwan, but we need to recognize that our ability to get China to move on these issues is negligible. That’s why Mr. Biden must not squander the leverage the United States can achieve. Setting clear priorities and ensuring China knows progress will lead to a constructive relationship is a necessary starting point. – New York Times 

Joshua C. Huminski writes: If America is to succeed in this multi-faceted, dynamic era of competition with Moscow and Beijing, the CIA must remain at the forefront, and adapt and be resourced accordingly. […]It needs to re-embrace the human aspect of human intelligence if we are to win this contest of wills with Beijing and Moscow. – The Hill 

Joseph Bosco writes: Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang know they cannot defeat the United States, separately or together, but they believe America can defeat itself by perverting its perceived strengths into self-generated weakness — when diversity and dissent become irreparable division, freedom of speech becomes an avenue of visceral attack, political rivals become mortal enemies, and each side sees the other as threatening the very survival of the republic. Foreign disinformation campaigns foster precisely such domestic distortions. – The Hill 

Asia

For decades, residents of Taiwan have paid far more attention to the threat of natural disasters than to the possibility of a military conflict with nearby China. Recently, however, the specter of a Chinese invasion has begun to take on a more seismic proportion in the minds of many of the island’s 23 million people—some of whom worry they aren’t sufficiently prepared. – Wall Street Journal 

The Philippines has issued a diplomatic protest over Chinese vessels challenging its ships patrolling the South China Sea with sirens, horns and radio communications, its foreign ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters 

John Bolton writes: More military assets supporting Taiwan are critical but potentially futile without a fuller American strategic vision, with buy-in from citizens and other like-minded countries. That vision must be broad, persuasive and implemented without delay,to ensure the sustained popular support needed to prevail. – Wall Street Journal 

James Durso writes: If NATO had stuck around, Central and South Asia could have planned trade via a semi-stable Afghanistan, which would have made opportunities for Afghans. As it is, it’s now up to local leaders to build trade links across Afghanistan when the governing body, the Taliban, isn’t recognized by any other governments, including theirs (yet). – The Hill 

Jack Detsch writes: But they don’t want to rock the boat either. A move to expand the president’s authorities could upset the principle of “strategic ambiguity,” which argues the United States isn’t legally bound to defend Taiwan against Chinese assault—a principle that has held up for more than four decades. They’re worried Biden is being clawed away from the tendency of restraint he displayed in Afghanistan and that a more unpredictable president might wield expansive war-making authorities more carelessly. – Foreign Policy 

Europe

Spain’s highest criminal court agreed on Wednesday to extradite Venezuela’s former intelligence chief, Hugo Carvajal, to the United States, where he faces drug trafficking charges, according to a court statement. – New York Times  

Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu will visit Slovakia next week on a rare trip to Europe that will also include a trip to the neighbouring Czech Republic and a virtual address to a forum in Rome, his ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters 

Poland’s clash with Brussels over a court ruling that questioned the supremacy of European Union law has been added to the agenda of a leaders’ summit this week at the request of several countries that see it as a serious crisis for the bloc. – Reuters 

The UK has brokered a trade agreement with New Zealand that will cut tariffs on clothing, buses and wine, and, it hopes, lay a foundation for joining a trans-Pacific economic bloc of 11 countries. – Financial Times 

Editorial: Europe’s willingness to harm itself in the name of unachievable climate goals is one of the greatest acts of democratic self-sabotage in history. Yet Europe’s leaders are heading to the global climate confab next month in Glasgow to increase their energy masochism. And America’s President Biden is eager to join them in abandoning energy security. Mr. Putin must be amazed at his strategic luck. – Wall Street Journal  

Guy Chazan and Sam Fleming write: Merkel will reprise today the role of mediator she has often played in her 16 years as chancellor when EU leaders gather in Brussels for a meeting that is likely to be dominated by the dispute with Poland. But there is a big difference this time — Merkel is on the way out and this is likely to be the last EU summit she will ever attend. – Financial Times 

The Americas

To fathom the magnitude of Venezuela’s financial collapse, travel southeast from Caracas, past the oil fields and over the Orinoco River, and head deep into the savanna that blankets one of the remotest corners of the country. There, in the barber shops and restaurants and hotels that constitute the main strip of one dusty little outpost after another, you’ll find prices displayed in grams of gold. – Bloomberg  

After two years of mudslinging and ruptured ties, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said on Wednesday it was necessary to repair diplomatic relations with Colombia. – Reuters  

The presidents of Panama, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday asked for U.S. assistance in stemming the flow of thousands of migrants crossing the dangerous jungles that divide Panama and Colombia as they make their way to the United States. – Reuters 

Accountability for human rights abuses committed during Colombia’s decades-long conflict and recent anti-government protests are critical to preventing future abuses, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a visit to the Andean country on Wednesday. – Reuters 

Editorial: The costs of Haitian anarchy go beyond the misery of the immediate victims. It harms investment and economic development, fuels poverty and destroys hope for a better life. Haitians become itinerants, spreading across the Western Hemisphere for a safe place to live and work. After the 2010 earthquake, hundreds of thousands migrated to South America. In case you haven’t noticed, tens of thousands have migrated tthe U.S. border this year. – Wall Street Journal 

Benjamin N. Gedan writes: Fortunately, Mr. Biden recognizes that U.S. security and prosperity depend upon success, or at least stability, in Latin America. The president is no doubt drawing up ambitious commitments for the Summit of the Americas to be held next summer, which he will host. Still, given the region’s monumental challenges, there is no time to spare in introducing a more generous U.S. approach. – New York Times 

Cybersecurity

Microsoft President Brad Smith said governments and companies are at last starting to cooperate to address the mounting cybersecurity issues facing the world. “It’s critical that the U.S. and other governments lead the way, and it’s vital that we in the tech sector play the roles that we need to play to support this,” Mr. Smith said at The Wall Street Journal’s Tech Live conference Wednesday. – Wall Street Journal 

Huawei Technologies Co. continued to bolster its lobbying operation in Washington even though a spending surge hasn’t dented restrictions on its ability to do business in the U.S. – Bloomberg 

Britain’s competition watchdog fined Facebook 50.5 million pounds ($69.4 million) on Wednesday for violating rules during the U.K. investigation into the social media giant’s purchase of Giphy. – Associated Press 

The Department of Defense is at an “inflection point” when it comes to cyberspace and cyber operations and must consider the role of the people behind cybersecurity systems, according to a top official. – C4SIRNET 

The Air Force Research Laboratory successfully demonstrated new joint machine learning algorithms with the United Kingdom, showcasing the countries’ ability to collaborate on deploying artificial intelligence in support of war fighters. – C4SIRNET 

Long War

A federal judge has ruled that the United States has no legal basis for holding an Afghan man at Guantánamo Bay because although he fought on the side of a militia in Afghanistan, he was not part of Al Qaeda. – New York Times  

British interior minister Priti Patel said on Wednesday that the terrorism threat level to members of parliament was now deemed substantial, days after lawmaker David Amess was stabbed to death at a public meeting in his constituency. – Reuters  

After the Afghan Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in mid-August 2021, a new movement is being led by Islamist and pro-Taliban figures in Pakistan as well as in the U.S. and other Western countries for the release of Dr. Aafia Siddiqui, a Pakistani neuroscientist imprisoned in the United States for helping Al-Qaeda and, according to an FBI report, “for the attempted murder and assault of U.S. nationals and U.S. officers and employees in Afghanistan.” – Middle East Media Research Institute