Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

President Trump endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for re-election, seeking to give him a long-sought boost days before Israel is set to hold a closely contested national election in which Netanyahu is fighting for his survival. – Wall Street Journal

Masked Israeli settlers attacked a group of European diplomats in the West Bank on Saturday, part of a pattern of escalating violence in the occupied territory that is straining Israel’s relations with the West. – Wall Street Journal

An Austrian Airlines flight from ​Tel Aviv carrying 57 people was diverted to ‌the Bulgarian capital Sofia late on Sunday after a threat was made against the aircraft, an airline spokesperson told Reuters. – Reuters

US diplomats visited a Christian Palestinian village in the Israeli-occupied ‌West Bank on Sunday following attacks by militant Israeli settlers on European diplomats and an American photojournalist in the previous two days. Reuters

Israeli police said on Monday they had arrested eight suspects as part of an investigation ​into violent incidents in the West Bank over the weekend, ‌including attacks on an American photojournalist and European diplomats in separate incidents. – Reuters

Israel’s Palestinian leaders are urging people in the minority Arab community to vote in big numbers in next week’s election as they seek to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and topple the most right-wing government in the country’s history. – Reuters

Israeli security forces on Saturday killed one Hamas commander and two other Hamas terrorists in a series of targeted strikes in Gaza, the IDF announced on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Previously unpublished documents revealed on Sunday show Israel’s direct involvement in transferring Qatari funds to the Gaza Strip, including requests to maintain the arrangement even as senior Israeli officials publicly criticized Doha. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Mr. Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and the rest have managed to prove how little influence they have—with both Israel and the so-called moderate PA. In 2000, 2001 and 2008, the PA turned down Israeli offers of peace and Palestinian statehood. There is no sign that has changed, or that the PA is serious about reform, governance and democracy. There is no state-building going on in Ramallah—even Mr. Macron & Co. know that. Recognizing a State of Palestine was merely another way to bash Israel. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Israel faces real West Bank security threats, including Palestinian terrorism. Commanders must protect Israeli communities while ensuring Palestinian farmers can harvest safely. Violence by Israelis undermines state authority and complicates soldiers’ work. Prevention requires patrols in known hot spots, prompt intervention, arrests, and credible prosecutions. Officials must account publicly for any failures identified and explain how they will protect the remaining harvest. Farmers should be able to gather their crops, and journalists to document events, in safety. – Jerusalem Post

Dov Zakheim writes: Should Israel and Turkey clash in the Horn, their conflict could extend to Syria, destabilize that country and create new opportunities for further Russian intervention or a return of Iranian proxies. That would certainly not be in America’s interest. Both Israel and Turkey are close American allies. Israel is formally a non-NATO ally, and Turkey is a member of NATO. Washington should make every effort to mitigate, if not reconcile, the two rivals on the Horn of Africa as in Syria, before the current war of words between them explodes into real hostilities in either or both regions. – The Hill

Russia and Ukraine

Ukrainian drones unleashed early Sunday the biggest attack on St. Petersburg since the start of the war, hitting a major oil terminal and other critical targets in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hometown following the collapse of a fragile energy ceasefire. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine is rushing to find an answer to Russia’s new generation of jet-powered drones and cheap cruise missiles. Moscow is using them, together with ballistic and cruise missiles, to pummel Ukrainian cities in an aerial campaign that is threatening to change the balance of the war. – Wall Street Journal

Zelensky, traveling to meet European allies in London and Brussels, decided to publicly criticize Trump’s approach, despite the risk of angering him further. He wanted to send a message to the public in the U.S. and Europe: Ukraine would defend itself however it needed to, and it wasn’t to blame for Russia’s invasion or for high global fuel prices. – Wall Street Journal

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed that he, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet next month to talk about Ukraine in an attempt to negotiate an end to the four-year conflict that would favor Moscow, said people familiar with the discussions. – Wall Street Journal

While Ukraine’s access to satellite internet was unexpectedly curtailed this week, Russia is pressing ahead with a battlefield communication network of its own — a development that, if successful, would compound Kyiv’s predicament. – Washington Post

A key element in the Trump administration’s broad plan for securing peace in Ukraine is a proposal that would turn years of American energy policy upside-down. Europe, the U.S. pitch goes, should resume buying more Russian gas — a move that would be an economic boon for Moscow and give it renewed influence in the region. – New York Times

Ukraine and Russia should be focused on ending the war between them, US Secretary ​of State Marco Rubio told reporters on his visit to ‌Uzbekistan on Monday. – Reuters

A Russian air strike killed a woman in Ukraine’s ​Kyiv overnight while also hitting a ‌subway station on the left bank of the capital city and damaging a 25-storey ​residential building, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said ​on Telegram on Monday. – Reuters

The United States has resumed providing Ukraine critical intelligence to help it defend against Russian missile strikes, after a brief pause, Ukrainian President ​Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in comments published on Sunday. – Reuters

Ukraine, the United States and Russia could meet during a G20 summit in the US but Washington and Moscow ​have not confirmed the meeting and other venues are also possible, Ukrainian ‌President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday. – Reuters

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that ​he did not think either ‌he or Elon Musk was responsible for Ukraine losing Starlink access in a way that affected ​its military operations against Russia. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin told Pope Leo in a ​phone call on Friday that he ‌supported a Vatican initiative to help deliver supplies to civilians in the Russian-controlled ​town of Oleshky in southern ​Ukraine and was ready to cooperate ⁠on the matter. – Reuters

Russian President ​Vladimir Putin ‌has backed the ​government ​reshuffle proposed by Prime ⁠Minister ​Mikhail Mishustin, ​news agencies reported on Monday, ​citing ​the Kremlin. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged supporters Saturday to speak out in favor of new U.S. sanctions against Russia, hours after President Donald Trump signed an executive order putting the sweeping restrictions on hold. – Associated Press

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky praised “real leaders” in Europe at a summit in Belgium on Friday, taking a veiled swipe at US President Donald Trump amid testy relations between Kyiv and Washington. – CNN

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Friday that as many as 20 million Ukrainians could be forced to flee to Europe if his country falls to Russia. – Politico

Editorial: Reuters reported Friday that the order to throttle Starshield “came from inside the White House.” Mr. Trump said Friday “I don’t know if it was anybody because it wasn’t me and I don’t think it was Elon” Musk, the SpaceX CEO. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday that some restrictions on Starshield were still in place, so someone is ordering it. Congress is preoccupied with the Nov. 3 election, but Mr. Trump may not appreciate the anger he’s courting if he keeps aiding Mr. Putin. When the election is over there needs to be a bipartisan reckoning for Mr. Trump’s budding alliance with the Kremlin against Ukraine, Europe and American interests. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Beyond the immediate ugliness of this episode, there’s also the strategic myopia of throttling Starshield to consider. Europe was already seeking to expedite approval of a satellite manufacturing venture intended to challenge SpaceX. Those efforts will no doubt accelerate. The White House could hardly have supplied a better argument for friendly governments to prioritize standing up competitors to U.S. firms. – Washington Post

Linas Kojala writes: Meantime, Mr. Trump is allowing relations with Ukraine to deteriorate—a country with one of Europe’s most experienced armies, a rapidly developing defense industry and a central role in containing Russian power. After everything Russia has inflicted on Ukraine, Kyiv isn’t about to turn to Moscow. But that is no guarantee that Ukraine will remain firmly within the Western political and economic sphere. America shouldn’t assume that a country that refuses to bow to Moscow will be any more willing to yield to pressure from Washington. – Wall Street Journal

Brynn Tannehill writes: Messing with Ukraine’s defensive capabilities doesn’t cause problems for just Kyiv: Poland and Germany supply and pay for Ukraine’s Starlink and Starshield terminals, and these are directly pertinent to Poland’s defense. Russian drones have repeatedly breached the Polish border, many of them passing first through Ukrainian airspace. The episode signaled something that many American allies already feared: that U.S.-made military technology could become a liability to those who depend on it. Starshield is reportedly back online, and so are Ukraine’s operations, for now. But the incident puts all American allies on notice: Developing homegrown technology, however expensive, may be better than relying on SpaceX and the United States. – The Atlantic

Egypt

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Saturday that his term would end in 2030 and outlined a plan for the country’s main military academy to train potential future leaders for 30 months before then. – Reuters

Regional military power Egypt is ready to provide Saudi Arabia with the support it needs to defend its security and stability, the presidency said on Sunday, potentially raising the stakes ​in the Middle East war as Yemen’s Iran-allied Houthis intensify their attacks on the kingdom. – Reuters

There has been anger in Sudan among those who accuse Egypt of being behind the strike, furious at what they see as aggression by their northern neighbour against workers who produce much of the gold consumed regionally and at the country’s inability to defend itself. – The Guardian

Saudi Arabia

Deadly missile and drone attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia’s capital and oil infrastructure have exposed the limitations of the kingdom’s armed forces and triggered a risky new phase of the war in Yemen for Riyadh. – Wall Street Journal

Members of the global financial elite are increasingly wary of traveling to Saudi Arabia for a highly anticipated gathering of corporate executives and investors next week, but they are weighing their own security against the risk of offending their wealthy hosts. – Wall Street Journal

A reconnaissance AH-6i helicopter crashed in the Najran region of Saudi Arabia, ​killing its two crew members, the Saudi-led coalition’s spokesperson Major ‌General Turki al-Maliki said in a statement on Sunday. – Reuters

An unknown projectile ‌struck a tanker 68 nautical miles northeast of Saudi Arabia’s Jubail on ​Friday, the United Kingdom ​Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said in a ⁠report on Saturday. – Reuters

Karen Elliott House writes: When we look back on this war, almost certainly the Saudis will be seen as the big loser, with the U.S. coming second. Both have been shown unable to triumph over far lesser powers. The U.S. has squandered global alliances that took decades to build. The clear winner is China. Beijing is bleeding U.S. munition supplies, tying down its naval carriers, which will need years to be ready for new deployment, and exhausting the patience of Americans for another war. Taiwan, look out. – Wall Street Journal

Mihir Sharma writes: Another recent change of tone is doubly intriguing. In MBS’s annual speech to the country’s quasi-legislative Shura Council two weeks ago, he did not start as so often with his vision for the future. Instead of shining new cities in the desert, he talked about the past. He spoke of his inheritance, claiming that over three centuries of rule his family had a consistent approach to governance that he was merely taking forward. The world’s most powerful millennial is, when dealing with the greatest crisis of his career, sounding as traditionalist as his predecessors. – Wall Street Journal

China

China has proposed export controls on 12 technologies used to make solar equipment, citing national security concerns, as part ​of a broader revision that also covers AI and biotechnology. – Reuters

China’s Premier Li Qiang called on Monday for deeper ​security and intelligence cooperation with Tajikistan to fight what Beijing views as extremism and ‌separatism, and said he hoped the country would take “strong measures” to protect Chinese citizens. – Reuters

China’s commerce ministry said on Monday it would set export controls on tunnel ​boring machines, a key piece ​of equipment for construction in neighbouring ⁠India. – Reuters

China on Friday said it plans to restrict or ban exports of 40 technologies that span artificial intelligence, chips and solar power as its technology race with countries including the United States intensifies. – Associated Press

China said it used its most advanced nuclear submarines to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile in the Pacific earlier this year, underscoring Beijing’s progress in the key defense technology. – Bloomberg

China is accelerating in discovering new drugs, faster and more cheaply than the U.S. and Europe. Traditionally a producer of basic chemicals for cheap generic medicines, China’s innovative biotech sector is now blossoming. – Politico

Yun Sun writes: If Chinese anxiety about the American-Indian relationship has genuinely diminished, then the deterrent value Washington derived from that relationship has diminished with it, which is a cost of the current policy that nobody is counting. If the Chinese read of Indian unmalleability is correct, then a post-Trump return to competition with China, and hence a return to cooperation with India, would face the same limits that frustrated the previous approach, and American planners should develop realistic expectations. – War on the Rocks

Asia

North Korea conducted an underwater test of a new torpedo ​weapon system on Thursday to verify technological upgrades, state ‌news agency KCNA reported on Saturday, describing the test as a success and a significant step in the country’s naval development. – Reuters

Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein have ​signed a free-trade agreement with ‌Vietnam, the governments of Norway and Vietnam announced on Sunday. – Reuters

The top US diplomat landed in Samarkand on Sunday ‌night to meet with top officials from the C5+1, a grouping that brings together the United States and the Muslim-majority post-Soviet states of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. – Reuters

Australian lawmaker Helen Haines was ​in a critical condition on ‌Monday after being deliberately struck by a car outside her office in ​Wangaratta, northeast of Melbourne, police ​and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said. – Reuters

Public support for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi slipped after a member of her cabinet resigned over a scandal, opinion polls show, but her approval ratings remain relatively strong compared to other recent premiers after a year in office. – Bloomberg

The Philippines and the US are exploring an expansion of collaboration on energy security, including the creation of strategic oil reserves, according to Manila’s energy department. – Bloomberg

Africa

Kenya confirmed four new cases of Ebola on Saturday, as the country’s Health Ministry sought to assuage fears that the virus could spread among the public at large. – New York Times

Mali’s armed forces and their Russian backers utilized some “apparent indiscriminate” drone ​strikes and other abuses as part of an ramped-up offensive against insurgents in recent months ‌that has killed scores of civilians, Human Rights Watch said in a report on Monday. – Reuters

The Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo has spread to ​an eighth province, North Ubangi, Congo’s public ‌health institute said on Sunday, confirming earlier Reuters reporting. – Reuters

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy ​Ahmed has named a caretaker government to stabilise the northern Tigray region ‌and prepare for an election within six months, after fighting erupted between a rebel alliance and federal troops. – Reuters

Africa’s top public health body and Congolese health authorities this week called for greater transparency in the ​use of Ebola response funds, saying financial information provided ‌by aid organisations left more than $700 million of donor money yet to be accounted for. – Reuters

Zimbabwe’s ruling party has picked President Emmerson Mnangagwa as its candidate for the 2030 national presidential election, a vote that will be conducted in parliament under the country’s revised electoral system. – Bloomberg

North America

The uproar reflects the divide across Alberta ahead of a historic referendum Monday on whether it should remain part of Canada or take steps toward holding a second, binding referendum on separation. While the campaign has been relatively muted compared with past constitutional battles in Canada, the friction in Sundre shows the tensions bubbling below the surface. – Wall Street Journal

Five Salvadoran soldiers, members of a new U.N.-backed force sent to stop gang violence in Haiti, were ambushed while out shopping near the capital on Sunday and were still missing several hours later, three people familiar with the situation said. – New York Times

A grass fire on a military base in Alberta, Canada, on Saturday was whipped by the wind at such remarkable speed, more than half a mile a minute, that it overwhelmed soldiers in a combat exercise, killing four of them and injuring 39 others, the Canadian authorities said Sunday. At least 19 were in critical condition. – New York Times

Mexican authorities arrested former Chihuahua Attorney General Cesar Jauregui on suspicion of treason after an investigation found he may have allowed foreign personnel to ​participate in operations reserved exclusively for national security forces, Attorney General ​Ernestina Godoy said on Saturday. – Reuters

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney is betting a new pipeline can help revive the country’s oil industry, boost its production and exports, and reduce its dependence on the United States. Bringing back jobs will be much harder. – Reuters

Mexican airlines will be able to launch new flights to the US from Mexico City’s two international airports after the US Department of ​Transportation lifted restrictions imposed over aviation disputes between the two countries, Mexico’s government ‌said on Friday. – Reuters

The Federal Aviation Administration said on Friday it is barring unauthorized drones along the ​US border with Mexico as the government steps up efforts to address concerns ‌about illegal cross-border drug shipments. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

When Anthropic gathered public-market investors recently to whet their appetites for its initial public offering, executives highlighted ballooning revenues and rapidly advancing technology. On Sunday, the company unveiled a plan to put 5% of Anthropic’s shares into a fund that could be used to make donations to nonprofits or support its mission in other ways. – Wall Street Journal

AI models under test broke into Indian organisations’ live systems and read confidential records undetected, India’s ​cybersecurity agency said, the country’s first such official ‌account after similar incidents of rogue AI behavior worldwide. – Reuters

AI lab Anthropic, the developer of Claude, said on Sunday it ‌will commit 5% of its shares to a new public benefit fund so it has increased flexibility and scale to make donations for the “public good.” – Reuters

The federal government is advising AI companies to set more industry standards for securing agents in sandbox testing environments. – Cyberscoop

Sam Clark and Ketrin Jochecová write: Digital security experts, including the EU’s own in-house cyber team, are also turning to AI for defense. But it’s not a silver bullet, said Rémi Enjolras, a chief technology officer at Splunk, part of Cisco. Critical industries need to stop “seeing AI as a magical tool that will solve everything and go back to the fundamentals,” he said. The EU has passed laws intended to force critical industries and product manufacturers to get those fundamentals right. But France, for example, is lagging in implementing such national regulations, and there are few other incentives to get companies to do that difficult and costly work. Still, the images of empty supermarket shelves could provide a new incentive. “It should serve as a kind of a wake-up call,” Enjolras said. – Politico