Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pledged to continue exporting grain from his country’s Black Sea ports, and accused Russia of exacerbating a global food crisis by suspending a United Nations-brokered shipping deal and threatening to block grain vessels. – Washington Post

Russia unleashed a fresh wave of attacks across Ukraine on Monday, damaging more than a dozen critical infrastructure facilities and causing sustained power outages, Ukrainian officials said. – Washington Post

Thunderous explosions hit Kyiv and regions across Ukraine on Monday morning, leaving many without power or water as Russia launched a fresh barrage of airstrikes on critical infrastructure — its strongest and widest-spread attack since the opening salvo in a new aerial bombardment strategy on Oct. 10. – Washington Post

The small boat speeds toward a much larger ship in the distance, cutting through choppy waves and dodging gunfire, presumably from a helicopter shown hovering above. A now-viral video of its journey ends inconclusively, without showing its fate or what happened to what is suspected to be its intended target: Russia’s strategically important Black Sea Fleet. – New York Times

Debris from a Russian missile shot down by Ukrainian air defenses landed in a border village in Moldova, officials in the country said on Monday, in one of the clearest instances of violence from the war spilling into another European nation. – New York Times

Grain prices jumped Monday, after Russia said over the weekend it would suspend participation in a deal that allowed Ukraine to ship grain via the Black Sea. Chicago wheat futures advanced 3.5% to $8.59 a bushel and corn rose 1% to $6.87 a bushel, with the jump representing growing uncertainty amongst traders about the future global food supply. – Wall Street Journal

Russian banking tycoon Oleg Tinkov renounced his Russian citizenship in a public rebuke of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, saying he “can’t and won’t be associated with a fascist country.” – Washington Post

Russia said on Monday it was “unacceptable” for shipping to pass through a Black Sea security corridor after it suspended its participation in a Turkish- and U.N.-brokered deal that had allowed Ukraine to resume grain exports. – Reuters

Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure on Monday were in part a response to a drone attacks on the Black Sea fleet over the weekend, President Vladimir Putin said, indicating more action could follow. “That’s not all we could have done,” he told a televised news conference. – Reuters

A small number of U.S. military forces inside Ukraine have recently begun doing onsite inspections to ensure that Ukrainian troops are properly accounting for the Western-provided weapons they receive, a senior U.S. defense official told Pentagon reporters Monday. – Associated Press

Israel will provide Ukraine with military communication systems that the country requested months ago, N12’s Uvda investigative program reported on Monday evening. – Jerusalem Post

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky conveyed his frustration and exasperation with Israel’s perceived neutrality in Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine and suggested a possible change in stance may be in the offing after Jerusalem finally agreed to supply the country with advanced communications systems, he told Israeli TV. – Times of Israel

Olesya Khromeychuk writes: Against those tempted to marvel at the apparent awakening of the Ukrainian nation, there are the words of Lesia Ukrainka, a pen name meaning “Ukrainian woman.” “To suffer in chains is a great humiliation,” she wrote in 1903, when the country had yet to taste self-rule. “But to forget those chains without having broken them is the worst kind of shame.” For much longer than Russia’s war, Ukrainians have fought for — and achieved — freedom and sovereignty. – New York Times

Karolina Hird, Katherine Lawlor, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan write: Russian forces conducted another massive wave of missiles strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure across the country on October 31, likely in an attempt to degrade Ukraine’s will to fight as temperatures drop. – Institute for the Study of War

Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan write: To be clear, this was not the first step that Russian society took as it began to slide towards its acceptance of authoritarianism. But it was one of the most significant advances along that road, a road that eventually led to a war of aggression, exclusion from the international community, and the beginnings of the complete collapse of Russian society. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Tanisha M. Fazal writes: Although the war ultimately ended with a Soviet victory, medicine was nonetheless a force multiplier for the Finns, who had a much smaller population and were able to compromise the Soviet victory instead of being overrun. In a war where numbers matter, the side that has better medicine holds a distinct advantage. – Foreign Policy

Afghanistan

Afghan special forces soldiers who fought alongside American troops and then fled to Iran after the chaotic U.S. withdrawal last year are now being recruited by the Russian military to fight in Ukraine, three former Afghan generals told The Associated Press. – Associated Press

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has authorized its chief prosecutor to resume its investigation into possible atrocities committed in Afghanistan. The original investigation was halted in early 2020 when the Western-backed administration asked to do its own probe, but the ICC said in a statement on October 31 that the current Taliban rulers, who took over as international forces left the country at the end of August 2021, show “no interest” in carrying out an investigation. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

The chant “Women, life, freedom,” one of the central slogans in the protests sweeping Iran in recent weeks, has now been heard in Afghanistan as women protested against being blocked from universities for not wearing burkas on Sunday, according to footage shared on social media. – Jerusalem Post

Saudi Arabia

Democratic U.S. Senator Chris Murphy said on Monday he wants a U.S. national security review of a Saudi Arabian conglomerate’s stake in Twitter Inc after Elon Musk’s takeover of the social media company. – Reuters

Eric R. Mandel writes: This is a bargain the Saudis likely would accept, because they see Iran as an existential threat. Unfortunately, it may well be that the president, after the midterm elections, will continue to chase after Iran’s Supreme Leader to make a deal. The U.S.-Saudi relationship has been a keystone in the interest of both nations, and it’s up to the leader of both to secure it once again. – The Hill 

Karen E. Young writes: Oil will continue to be a part of foreign policy for both countries. But they are certainly headed in different directions. Riyadh and Washington may soon find that they are more often competitors—in oil markets and models of economic development—than partners. – Foreign Affairs

Korean Peninsula

North Korea’s Foreign Ministry criticized the United States for expanding joint military exercises with South Korea that it claims are practice for a potential invasion, and it warned Tuesday of “more powerful follow-up measures” in response. – Associated Press

The prospect of a new North Korean nuclear test underscores the limited options for Washington and its allies, who have embraced “deterring” Pyongyang through major military drills that some current and former officials say may exacerbate tensions. – Reuters

South Korea’s government vowed on Tuesday to make every effort to boost export growth in semiconductors, rechargeable batteries and areas promising new growth, after preliminary government data showed exports fell the most in 26 months in October. – Reuters

South Asia

Leading the pack and waving to thousands of supporters lining the route was Imran Khan, wearing sunglasses and a neatly pressed white Pakistani salwar suit. The country’s ousted prime minister and former cricket star has embarked on a week-long march through Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab, to the capital Islamabad, hoping to whip up a large enough show of support to topple the government of rival Shehbaz Sharif and force early elections. – Financial Times

A team of Chinese officials travelled to Pakistan to assist in investigations, the interior ministry said, a sign of the seriousness Beijing attaches to the attack. The visit has not been previously reported. – Reuters

Ronak D. Desai writes: The status quo is unsustainable. The Biden administration should strike a deal with the Senate to confirm Garcetti and invest the necessary political capital to ensure bilateral ties remain bipartisan. The U.S.-India relationship is far too important for the helm of our mission in Delhi to remain vacant any longer. – Washington Post

Europe

One of the first closely watched seasonal outlooks for what the European winter holds sees colder and drier weather than usual across the U.K. and Northern Europe, conditions that could add pressure on governments and companies managing the continent’s supply of natural gas. – Wall Street Journal

Polish and South Korean officials have signed initial agreements to develop a nuclear power plant in Poland, part of an effort by Poland to lower its carbon emissions and seek energy security. For South Korea, engagement in the Polish project is a way to revive the country’s nuclear power industry. The country’s last export deal, to the United Arab Emirates, was in 2009. – Associated Press

The European Union’s industry chief said on Monday that European governments and companies must realise China is a rival to the EU and they should not be naive whenever they approve Chinese investment. – Reuters

Norway, a NATO member that shares a border with Russia in the Arctic, will raise its military readiness, the prime minister said Monday, stressing no direct threat had been detected. – Agence France-Presse

Northern Irish politics are in gridlock — again. The UK government has said it will call fresh elections after a legal deadline to form an executive passed on Friday. But London has delayed setting a date for a new poll and political parties warn that fresh elections may not restore the executive. Glyn Roberts, head of lobby group Retail NI, describes the situation as “political instability on steroids”. – Financial Times

Rarely has a deal encountered such strong government opposition. Six German ministries came out last month against Chinese shipper Cosco’s planned acquisition of a stake in a Hamburg container terminal. But it went through anyway. – Financial Times

Russia’s Foreign Ministry has summoned the Dutch ambassador, Gilles Beschoor Plug, to protest an allegation that the British intelligence community attempted to recruit a Russian military diplomat in The Hague. – The Daily Beast

Therese Raphael writes: Sunak doesn’t seem ready to go that far. While he may not be able to change the raw reality of Brexit, if he can detoxify it and take the heat out of Brexit as a cultural issue, he can perhaps make way for a real debate over how to mitigate the consequences. That will prove a test of his much-vaunted pragmatism, but also his ability to manage his own party on an issue that has tripped up a long list of predecessors. – Bloomberg

Edward Lucas writes: Huge dangers and difficulties still lie ahead in an era where Europe’s strategic nakedness is starkly displayed. Germany’s economic, political and military clout will be vital, first in ensuring Ukraine’s victory and then in rebuilding European security. Outsiders realize this. I am not sure Germans do. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Thorsten Benner writes: Instead of presiding over the signing of new business deals, Scholz should clearly address the concerns German companies have about dealing with an increasingly totalitarian system that puts ideologies over economic interests. All this will make sure that next time, nobody gets the idea of greeting him with “Welcome back, Ms. Merkel.” – Foreign Policy

Latin America

In the tightest presidential election in Brazilian history, following a bitterly fought campaign that deepened divisions in Latin America’s largest nation, President Jair Bolsonaro has remained out of public view since 8 p.m. Sunday, when the Superior Electoral Court declared Lula the winner of the second and final round. Bolsonaro, a close ally of former president Donald Trump, known for his fiery rhetoric and incendiary missives on social media, has opted for a response that for him has been extremely uncommon: silence. – Washington Post

Colombian President Gustavo Petro and his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro will meet in Caracas on Tuesday to discuss their countries’ recently-thawed bilateral ties and expanded trade, the Colombian government said on Monday. – Reuters

After being relegated to the back pages of Washington’s foreign policy briefs for some time, Latin America now stands to emerge as a top arena where America and China compete for influence. Leftist Latin leaders may opt for neutrality, but doing so increasingly could become difficult. – New York Sun

Editorial: A better arena for Mr. da Silva’s diplomatic influence would be his own hemisphere, where the most pressing issue might be the restoration of democracy in neighboring Venezuela. As a veteran leftist, Mr. da Silva has the ideological heritage and connections to engage with Caracas; as a democrat, he has a duty to do so. The Biden administration should explore the possibilities to work with him. Enabling a transition to free and fair elections in Venezuela could be the crowning achievement of Mr. da Silva’s long career. – Washington Post

Mac Margolis writes: Leftist partisans can rightly celebrate their unprecedented democratic coalition as a firewall against right-wing extremism. Yet to hold that compact together Lula will need to summon all his pragmatism and political acumen, both conspicuously absent in Bolsonaro’s Brazil. – Washington Post

Lahav Harkov writes: Both presidential candidates were highly controversial in areas unrelated to Israel. Bolsonaro has made anti-gay comments, praised Brazil’s former military regime and allowed deforestation in the Amazon. Da Silva spent a year and a half in prison on corruption charges, but the ruling was later overturned on grounds of judicial misconduct. He also pushed for greater government control of the media, raising concerns over limiting free speech. Iran is only one of several dictatorships he supported. – Jerusalem Post

Jonathan M. Katz writes: But it will do nothing to prevent the violence and inequality that rive Haitian society. Only forcing the unpopular and manifestly undemocratic Henry government to share or cede power, preparing the ground for eventual elections and a return to Haitian democracy, and ending a century of destructive U.S. interference in their affairs, will give ordinary Haitians a shot at survival. – Foreign Policy

Defense

The Air Force is moving forward with experiments to test whether a two-person crew could safely fly a KC-46 Pegasus tanker in an emergency. – Defense News

John G. Ferrari and Charles Rahr write: For the Army, it needs to buy more systems now and spend less on development in order to be prepared for the threats this decade. The future of the Army’s main battle tank doesn’t lie in untested, unproven and far-off platforms. It instead lies with the Abrams X and other existing platforms like it. – Breaking Defense

Michael Rubin writes: For the Congress to dilute Somaliland provisions within the NDAA, in contrast, is to enable the State Department to cover up decades of policy failure. Oversight requires recognizing mistakes and recalibrating policy in favor of freedom. – 19FortyFive

Mark F. Cancian writes: Budget documents give some indication, as indicated earlier, but budget numbers are not necessarily long-term strategic goals. It may be that the classified version of the NDS, which went to Congress in the spring, has answers to all these questions. However, that does not help the public discussion about defense and strategy. Such are the frustrations of outside analysts who no longer have a security clearance. – Center for Strategic and International Studies