Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The organisers of a flotilla of aid vessels bound for Gaza said on Monday that Israeli ‌forces had intercepted 39 of their boats in the eastern Mediterranean, while the remaining ships were continuing to sail toward the enclave. – Reuters

Hamas intelligence chief Mohammed Odeh has been selected to replace Izz al-Din al-Haddad as the terror group’s leader in the Gaza Strip and chief of its military wing, the Saudi Asharq Al-Awsat outlet reported Monday, citing three sources familiar with the development. – Times of Israel

Nearly 80% of Gazans are interested in emigrating from the Gaza Strip, according to a recent survey the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) shared with senior Israeli officials. – Jerusalem Post

Police officers arrested four suspects near Hadera shortly after receiving a report that a Palestinian Authority resident allegedly intended to carry out a terror attack in the area, Israel Police confirmed on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

While the Palestinian Authority sometimes coordinates with Israel in counterterrorism operations, the Palestinian leadership body has continued to promote violent rhetoric and fund terrorist organizations, according to a report published by the US State Department presented to Congress this week. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF killed Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander Wael Mahmoud Abd al-Halim in a targeted strike in Lebanon on Sunday night, the military announced on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

The prosecutor’s office at the International Criminal Court in The Hague (ICC) reportedly submitted a secret request last month for an arrest warrant against Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, according to Middle East Eye. – Jerusalem Post

The Israeli government moved to establish an inter-ministry team to look into the seizure of properties in the Jewish Quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City belonging to Arab residents of the city, according to a Monday N12 News report – Jerusalem Post

IDF Central Command chief Maj.-Gen. Avi Bluth on Monday signed an amendment to the West Bank’s security regulations, allowing the approved death penalty law for terrorists to go into effect. – Jerusalem Post

Just six weeks after the defense budget was urgently increased by about 32 billion shekels ($10.7 billion), the IDF and Defense Ministry are demanding another 40 billion shekels ($13.3 billion) amid continued deployments in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria and preparations for possible renewed fighting with Iran. – Ynet

Mohammed Altooll writes: For that reason, the funeral of Haddad may ultimately represent more than the death of a military commander. It may reflect a deeper social and political turning point inside Gaza itself, one suggesting that fear is slowly weakening, that traditional factional loyalty is eroding, and that many Gazans, despite everything, are beginning to search for a different future, even if its shape remains uncertain. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine’s military has wrestled Russia’s much-larger army almost to a halt in recent months, having gained a tactical and technological edge. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. Treasury Secretary ​Scott Bessent on Monday announced another 30-day extension of a sanctions waiver allowing purchases of Russian seaborne oil to aid “energy-vulnerable” countries hit by the Iran war, reversing plans ‌not to grant an extension. – Reuters

A Russian air attack damaged port infrastructure in Ukraine’s Izmail city ‌in the early hours of Tuesday, while Russian authorities said they had downed four drones launched by Ukraine that were headed towards Moscow. – Reuters

The situation around the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in ​Ukraine is reaching the “point of no return” due to ‌increased Ukrainian attacks in the area, the head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom was quoted as saying on Monday. – Reuters

Russia on Tuesday begins three days of nuclear drills ​that will include the ​launch of ballistic and cruise missiles, ⁠the defence ministry said. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin has few good options in Ukraine with his armed forces unable to advance significantly on the battlefield while Western sanctions are chipping ​away at his resources, Estonia’s foreign intelligence chief has said. – Reuters

It’s getting harder for officials in the Kremlin to cast the war in Ukraine — now in its fifth year — as something so distant that it doesn’t affect the daily routines of Russian civilians. – Associated Press

Russia targeted eight regions of Ukraine in its latest nighttime drone and missile barrage, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday, with local authorities reporting that the strikes wounded more than two dozen civilians, including three children. – Associated Press

Walter Russell Mead writes: Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure led to a serious fuel crisis last winter, and the coming winter could pose an even harsher test. But the so-called realists who confidently expected a Russian victory in the war need to recalibrate. Ukraine is matching and often surpassing Russia’s best efforts in military technology. Its resilient population is grimly united behind the war effort. Russian power, and the authority and integrity of the Putinist state, is being ground down. Ukraine, by contrast, appears to be gaining coherence, capacity and energy—even as it fights for its life. – Wall Street Journal

Marc Champion writes: The good news is that most of Europe’s leaders by now recognize that integrating Ukraine’s large military and drone industry offers their own best security guarantee against a revisionist Kremlin, absent a reliable US partner. This understanding of Kyiv as a security provider should be their starting point for everything they do. Less encouraging is that this war has become a contest of narratives and confidence, as much as a fight over land, so Ukraine’s allies must regroup and respond accordingly. For their own sakes, they need to find a new mediator to replace the US and ensure that Kyiv survives what feels very much like Moscow’s last throw of the military dice this summer. – Bloomberg

Paul Hockenos writes: A year ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky articulated a strategy of “bringing the war back to Russia.” “The war was brought from Russia, and it is to Russia that the war must be pushed back. They must be the ones forced into peace. They are the ones who must be pressured to ensure security,” Zelensky said in March 2025. Since then, and ever more intensely this year, Ukraine has been pursuing a “strategic neutralization” of assets in Russia. – Foreign Policy

Lebanon

Israel carried out airstrikes in southern ​Lebanon on Monday, Lebanese security sources and the state news agency said, while Hezbollah announced new attacks on Israeli forces, continuing ‌the war in Lebanon despite the extension of a U.S.-backed truce. – Reuters

The death toll in the latest round of fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon surpassed 3,000, Lebanon’s health ministry said Monday. – Associated Press

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said Monday that he would do the “impossible” in order to stop the war with Israel, after a ceasefire and direct talks between the countries failed to end the fighting. – Agence France-Presse

Amine Ayoub writes: Western governments and international institutions continue to apply a conflict-resolution framework, built around the assumption that all parties want stability, to an organization whose foundational ideology requires the permanent prosecution of jihad against Israel. Hezbollah does not want a stable Lebanon. It wants a Lebanon that provides operational depth for a war it intends to resume on terms of its own choosing. Ceasefires built on that misreading do not prevent wars. They schedule them. The FPV factory humming somewhere in the Bekaa Valley tonight is the proof. – Algemeiner

Middle East & North Africa

The European Union on Monday renewed sanctions targeting individuals and entities linked to former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s ​government for another year, while removing seven entities – including Syria’s ‌defence and interior ministries – from its blacklist as part of a broader easing of measures on Damascus. – Reuters

Syria will take part in a closed-door session with G7 finance ministers and central bank governors in ​Paris on Monday, a person familiar with the matter ‌said, in a sign of its growing status less than two years after the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters

A Houthi-controlled court in Yemen has sentenced 19 people to death after their conviction for collaborating with the Saudi-led coalition that has been fighting the Iranian-backed rebels for over a decade. – Associated Press

China

The arrival Tuesday of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing will mark a watershed moment for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, one that he has pursued since taking power in 2012—and bet his country’s future to achieve. – Wall Street Journal

Russia and China are ready to support each ​other on a wide range of issues, ‌including national unity and protection of sovereignty, President Vladimir Putin said in a video address ​ahead of a visit to China ​starting on Tuesday. – Reuters

China is the greatest source of regional unease ​and instability due to its ongoing military activities, Taiwan’s Premier Cho Jung-tai said on Tuesday, ‌as the Chinese navy announced it had sent a carrier task force into the Western Pacific for training. – Reuters

Chinese investment in Europe reached a new ​record in 2025, with more ‌factories being built than ever before, German business daily Handelsblatt ​reported on Monday. – Reuters

China is expected to leave its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a 12th consecutive month in May, a Reuters survey showed, as ample interbank cash supplies reduced the ​need to cut rates despite weak economic and lending activities. – Reuters

Asia

The bodies of the remaining four Italians who went missing while scuba diving in the Maldives last week have been located in a deep underwater cave, the Maldives National Defense Force said on Monday. – New York Times

The Australian government said on Tuesday it secured three shipments of jet ​fuel from China and more agricultural-grade urea from Brunei, ‌boosting fuel and fertiliser stocks amid disruptions caused by the Iran war. – Reuters

Japan’s government is likely to issue fresh debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to cushion ​the economic blow from the Middle East war, a government source with direct knowledge of the deliberations told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

Indonesia’s defence minister said on Tuesday that he had signed a letter of intent last month with U.S. ​Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on granting U.S. military aircraft access ‌to Indonesian airspace, but said no commitment was made. – Reuters

The Philippines would likely be involved in any conflict over Taiwan due to its proximity to the island democracy claimed by China, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said, reiterating a stance that risks angering Beijing. – Bloomberg

Indonesian authorities, including the military, used online disinformation campaigns to brand activists and journalists as “foreign agents” and silence dissent, sometimes leading to physical threats, Amnesty International said in a report released on Tuesday. – Reuters

Indonesia will continue to build up its defence capabilities amid an uncertain geopolitical situation, President Prabowo Subianto said ​on Monday as he officially handed over six Rafale ‌fighter jets and other military hardware to the Indonesian Air Force. – Reuters

Malaysia’s defence minister on Tuesday said a notice has been sent to Norway seeking compensation of more than 1 billion ​ringgit ($251.76 million), after Oslo abruptly cancelled export approvals for a naval ‌strike missile system intended for Malaysian combat ships. – Reuters

Taiwan Defence Minister Wellington Koo on ‌Tuesday said he was “cautiously optimistic” about arms sales from the U.S., after President Donald Trump said he was still considering whether to go ahead with new sales to the Chinese-claimed island. – Reuters

Member states of the World Health Organization on Monday rejected a proposal to ​invite Taiwan to its annual assembly in Geneva after ‌China said it would block its participation. – Reuters

Taiwan ​would welcome a direct call between President Donald Trump and President Lai Ching-te, a senior Taiwanese diplomat said ‌on Monday, as Taipei sought to ease concerns over Trump’s remarks following his summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. – Reuters

Michael Gencher writes: Because in Australia, as across the diaspora, the question is no longer whether antisemitism exists. Jewish communities know it does. A Royal Commission now exists because the problem has become impossible to ignore. The question is whether our leaders, institutions and society have the courage to act before even more damage is done. – Algemeiner

Africa

Four people were killed in protests against fuel price hikes ‌prompted by the Iran war in several Kenyan towns on Monday, its interior minister said, after a nationwide public transport strike stranded commuters. – Reuters

Gunmen abducted at least 39 schoolchildren and seven teachers in Nigeria’s southwestern Oyo ​state, killing one teacher in captivity and wounding ‌security operatives with explosive devices during a rescue attempt, authorities said on Monday. – Reuters

The U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) and the Nigerian military said on ‌Monday they had carried out additional airstrikes against Islamic State targets in northeastern Nigeria on Sunday, as joint operations against militant groups intensify. – Reuters

Cape Verde’s PAICV party won Sunday’s parliamentary election, unseating the Movement for Democracy (MpD) and positioning itself to ​return to power after a decade in opposition, partial results ‌and party statements indicated on Monday. – Reuters

Somaliland’s first-ever ambassador to a foreign country presented his diplomatic credentials to President Isaac Herzog on Monday. – Times of Israel

Iqra Salah and Halkano Boru write: All these contagion effects are important because they test the fundamental rule of the African Union that borders drawn by colonial powers should not be altered. The bloc will have to decide whether that rule will be respected when outside powers recognize breakaway states because of their needs. Ultimately, the way the African Union reacts to Israel’s actions will determine whether these pressures are simply symbolic or create real opportunities for other regions that want to be autonomous, making the risks of secession in the continent very real. – War on the Rocks

Liam Karr writes: Regardless of its outcome, the Iran war is already having a dangerous impact on the Red Sea region and the Horn of Africa. It has upped the ante in an already contested area, at once increasing its importance and further polarizing the competing actors. It has exacerbated the fundamental differences between the rival blocs, driving a battle for resources and influence that had already destabilized the Arabian and African sides of the Red Sea for years. – Foreign Policy

North America

The Trump administration on Monday intensified its pressure campaign against Cuba’s government, issuing sanctions on three government agencies and 11 top officials. – New York Times

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel said on Monday that any U.S. military action against Cuba would lead to a “bloodbath” with incalculable consequences for regional peace and ​stability. – Reuters

Mexico has frozen the bank accounts of former officials accused by the United States of ties to the Sinaloa Cartel, President ​Claudia Sheinbaum said on Monday, describing the move as a preventive measure ‌rather than a domestic investigation. – Reuters

A ship laden with humanitarian aid from the governments of Mexico and Uruguay arrived Monday in Havana to help ease Cuba’s spiraling crises. – Associated Press

The Pentagon’s policy chief announced Monday that the United States will suspend its involvement in a joint body that coordinates military consultation with Canada, pointing to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s address to the World Economic Forum earlier this year. – The Hill

Richard Branson and Brett Perlmutter write: The U.S. and Cuba share a long history of useful back-channel negotiations — CIA Director John Ratcliffe recently met with Cuban officials. But the responsibility to alleviate human suffering cannot be left to governments alone. Business leaders and humanitarian organizations can act, through existing legal pathways. Policy debates matter. But in the meantime, what matters more is saving lives. – Washington Post

Cybersecurity

Anthropic recently began letting users of its powerful artificial-intelligence model Mythos share cybersecurity threats with others who may face similar vulnerabilities, modifying its previous stance amid concerns that limiting access to the information could hurt smaller companies. – Wall Street Journal

The widespread availability of new technology has meant the risk of nuclear terrorism “has never been so high as it is today,” the director of the UN Counter-Terrorism Centre, Mauro Miedico, stated in a UN publication published on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Interpol coordinated an expansive investigation with 13 countries in the Middle East and North Africa to disrupt and take down cybercrime operations, including phishing services and tools, malware and scams. The law enforcement effort netted 201 arrests, led to the seizure of 53 servers and disrupted multiple cybercrime services, Interpol said Monday. – Cyberscoop

Federal agencies would be required to develop artificial intelligence standards and use the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s AI guidelines under a bipartisan bill introduced Thursday. – Fedscoop

Kate Andrias writes: If we want A.I. policy that actually works for the public, then decisions cannot be made by executives and investors alone. Workers must have a say in what they build, whom it serves and how it is used. If they do, the rest of us will have a better chance of living with technology governed by democratic values, not merely by corporate and military imperatives. – New York Times

David Maimon writes: What makes the facilitator layer so consequential is that it converts a foreign intelligence operation into a domestic insider threat, one that moves through the same hiring pipelines every American company uses for its remote workforce. Iran-linked networks have developed their own form of domestic reach through “pig butchering” scams, cultivating fraudulent romantic and investment relationships on dating apps and social media, then using AI-powered chatbots and fake cryptocurrency platforms to drain their victims’ savings. Some proceeds from these schemes are believed to fund Iranian state-aligned activities. – Fox News