Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

It takes Ukrainian troops little more than a glance to tell if Russian fighters advancing on their positions near the fiercely embattled city of Bakhmut are seasoned soldiers or recent recruits. – Washington Post

Ukrainian special forces said on Monday that they had destroyed an unmanned observation tower in Russia’s Bryansk region using a drone strike, a rare public acknowledgment of a cross-border attack that underscored Kyiv’s increasing willingness to directly strike Russian territory. – New York Times

Ukraine has broadened a request for controversial cluster bombs from the United States to include a weapon that it wants to cannibalize to drop the anti-armor bomblets it contains on Russian forces from drones, according to two U.S. lawmakers. – Reuters

The war in Ukraine has created a surge in demand for weapons — and, apparently, also for inflatable fake armaments that can be deployed as decoys. – Associated Press

The US is working with Ukrainian pilots in the United States to determine how long it would take to train them to fly F-16 fighter jets, three sources briefed on the matter told CNN. – CNN

Russian President Vladimir Putin staked a large part of his war strategy over the the past few months on betting that Mother Nature would be on his side. According to analysts, that plan failed to produce the results the Russian leader had desired and instead allowed Ukraine to regroup and mobilize against Russian forces. – Newsweek

Air defenses blocked 13 Iranian-produced drones from bombarding Kyiv Sunday night as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, according to Ukrainian defense officials. – Newsweek

Britain is to double the number of main battle tanks it is sending to bolster the Ukrainian defenses, the country’s ambassador in London said in a interview with Europe’s Radio Liberty. – Defense News

In the context of the Ukraine war, a Russian victory in the battle of Bakhmut could well be, as the defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, said Monday, merely “symbolic.” Yet it could become a watershed moment in battles inside Moscow.  – New York Sun

John R. Bolton writes: We also need our allies to engage, this time globally; it won’t be sufficient for the United States to deal with NATO on one hand or a series of bilateral, hub-and-spoke Indo-Pacific alliances on the other. China’s coming attainment of peer status as a nuclear power, and its entente with nuclear-superpower Russia, is a global threat. For making the urgency clear, thank you, President Putin. – Washington Post

Mihir Shirma writes: That point is now. Nobody expects any real negotiations to begin tomorrow. But everyone has a right to expect that work towards a peace plan is intensive and ongoing. And, certainly, they will want to hear that commitment to peace from the world leaders best placed to make a difference. – Bloomberg

William Courtney writes: A resumption of nuclear explosive testing could set back progress on nonproliferation. In 1995, China, France, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S. agreed to pursue a permanent ban on such testing in order to achieve an “indefinite extension” of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Last October President Biden said Putin was “not joking” about the use of weapons of mass destruction. “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon,” he said, since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Any Russian resumption of nuclear testing could be a canary in the coal mine. – The Hill

Syria

The U.S. State Department on Monday banned entry into the U.S. of a Syrian intelligence member who appeared in a video leaked last year showing him fatally shooting people during the country’s 12-year conflict. – Associated Press

An Israeli airstrike hit the international airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo early on Tuesday, putting it out of service, Syria state media said. All flights were rerouted to two other airports in the war-torn country, according to the report. – Associated Press

Radwan Ziadeh writes: There has been a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Syria for 12 years. This earthquake is another horrible layer of pain and injustice for Syrians. President Biden has the power to ease the suffering of all Syrians. Especially those who are now twice displaced and suffering due to the earthquake. He has the power to give them rest now, while they are alive. Not when they die. As the leader of the free world, I’d argue that his administration has a moral responsibility to do so. – The Hill

Rena Netjes writes: And even as regional powers seem to be using the earthquake as an opportunity to normalize relations with the Assad regime, the regime has busied itself post-earthquake with attacking Northwest Syria at least five times—including reports of pro-Assad forces shelling the highway in Idlib from the Bab al-Hawa crossing. At this point, the people in Northwest Syria I spoke to do not trust or want aid that is facilitated through the Assad regime. As one SNA soldier put it: “Assad [has] caused 1000 earthquakes, I will burn any aid that comes from him.” – Washington Institute

Iraq

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made an unannounced trip to Iraq on Tuesday, in a visit that an official said was aimed at showing that Washington was committed to keeping its military presence there nearly 20 years after the U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein. – Reuters

On March 2-3, 2023, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited Iraq, six years after his previous visit to the country. During his visit Guterres met with Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani and attended a dinner with Iraqi political figures. Among the dinner guests were the heads of two Iran-backed militias in Iraq: Qais Al-Khaz’ali, head of the ‘Asaeb Ahl Al-Haqq militia, and Rayan Al-Kildani, head of the Christian Babylon movement and of its military wing, the Babylon Battalions.  – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Cut to 2023, and Iraq is by no means stable. It’s been ravaged by wars, Saddam Hussein and an Isis surge in 2014, which brought the world’s sixth-largest oil producer close to collapse. But it’s also just about functioning as a rare Arab democracy, with a new president elected last October. These green shoots have attracted a few pioneering tour operators. This month, Steppes Travel is sending its first private trips into Iraqi Kurdistan. The company says Michael Palin’s recent UK television series on Iraq has generated significant interest. When US-based operator MIR Corporation announced an inaugural group tour to southern Iraq for 2023, it sold out within 36 hours. – Financial Times

Middle East & North Africa

China fully respects Middle East countries as masters of their own affairs and has no intention to fill a so called “vacuum”, China’s foreign minister Qin Gang said on Tuesday. – Reuters

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, in Jordan to begin a three-country Mideast visit, is aiming to reassure key allies of American commitment to the region despite Washington’s recent focus on Russia and China, officials said. At the same time, he plans to deliver frank messages to the leaders of Israel and Egypt. – Jerusalem Post

The leader of Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah said Monday the group backs a former Cabinet minister and strong ally to become Lebanon’s next president. – Associated Press

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said Monday that recent events in Israel are an indication that the country is nearing its end — apparently referring to internal strife over the government’s plans for a major overhaul of the judiciary. – Times of Israel

Jalel Harchaoui writes: Left to their own devices, neither Turkey, Egypt, nor the United Arab Emirates will tolerate any substantive departure from the current status quo. If constructive change in Libya is an actual priority for Washington, it should be prepared to spend political capital to jolt its regional friends out of their dogged inertia. – War on the Rocks

Nir Boms and Joelle Rosenthal write: While both Turkey and Syria have received significant aid in the direct aftermath of the earthquake, it is likely that the attention of the world will soon turn elsewhere. However, some Israeli organizations have committed to long-term missions and understand that help is still needed—they remain in the field and continue their donation efforts. Now, with new relationships founded on these aid efforts, they hope to not only provide aid but also demonstrate a rare moment of unity that can be replicated not just in times of crisis but also in times of peace. – Washington Institute

China

Chinese leader Xi Jinping issued an unusually blunt rebuke of U.S. policy on Monday, blaming what he termed a Washington-led campaign to suppress China for recent challenges facing his country. – Wall Street Journal

China’s foreign minister warned that the U.S. strategy toward China risked plunging the countries into conflict and pledged to continue responding strongly to what he viewed as persistent attacks on Beijing by Washington. – Wall Street Journal

China must advance its relations with Russia as the world becomes more turbulent, Foreign Minister Qin Gang said on Tuesday. Speaking to reporters at an annual parliamentary session in Beijing, Qin said the close interactions between both leaders – President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin – provided the anchor for China-Russia relations. – Reuters

China has long been seen by the U.S. as a prolific source of anti-American propaganda but less aggressive in its influence operations than Russia, which has used cyberattacks and covert operations to disrupt U.S. elections and denigrate rivals. – Associated Press

When the U.S. blacklisted six Chinese entities last month in response to a suspected spy balloon’s traversing the country, a little-known tech firm in Northern California had reason to pay particularly close attention. – NBC News

Editorial: For years China was cautious about its military plans, biding its time to build its strength. These days it’s sprinting to take advantage of American complacency. War with China isn’t inevitable and would be a calamity, but to prevent it the U.S. will need to match China’s defense commitment. We’ll see this week when he unveils his defense budget if President Biden appreciates the urgency. – Wall Street Journal

Eli Lake writes: If China does end up arming Russia’s war in Ukraine, President Biden and his Cabinet will be left to ruminate on why President Xi was not deterred from entering the fray. One reason is likely the confused implementation of a law that was supposed to liberate America’s economy from China’s. – New York Sun

Gideon Rachman writes: But a policy of covert or deniable Chinese military support to Russia is no magic bullet for Beijing. It might be too restricted to turn the tide of the war in Putin’s favour. And it would still be vulnerable to detection by the US. Indirect Chinese military support for Russia could ultimately be a circuitous route to the same destination: direct confrontation with America. – Financial Times

Asia

Taiwan will not allow “repeated provocations” from China, the island’s defence minister said on Tuesday, as China’s foreign minister said Taiwan was the “first red line” that must not be crossed in Sino-U.S. relations. – Reuters

Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen has convinced US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to meet in California rather than Taipei to avoid an aggressive Chinese military response, as tensions run high between Beijing and Washington. – Financial Times

Australia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Future Fund, is screening its portfolio for Chinese companies at risk of U.S. investment restrictions, its chairman said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A Chinese warship, a China Coast Guard ship and 42 Maritime Militia ships operated within the 12-nautical mile territorial sea around Pag-Asa Island, internationally known as Thitu island, in the Spratly Island archipelago Saturday, according to a Philippine Coast Guard statement. – USNI News

Tom Rogan writes: Whether or not the U.S. should fight China over Taiwan is a necessary point of debate. But there’s little doubt that Beijing is more seriously preparing for such a war than Washington is. – Washington Examiner

Victor Cha and Christopher B. Johnstone write: There is a Japanese proverb, “after the rain, the ground hardens”—a relationship emerges from difficulty even stronger. The agreement this week will solidify the ground under relations between Seoul and Tokyo. The benefits will accrue not just to the two protagonists, but also to the United States. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Africa

Fighters from Somalia’s al Shabaab Islamist group on Tuesday overran a military base in the southern Jubbaland region that they had lost to the army in January, a Somali officer and a local resident said. – Reuters

The Russian government has donated 20,000 tons of fertilizer to Malawi as part of its efforts to garner diplomatic support from various African nations. – Associated Press

As independent U.S. election observers raised alarm bells about widespread voting irregularities in Nigeria’s Feb. 25 presidential elections, the U.S. State Department was singing an entirely different tune, congratulating Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the electoral victor and hailing a “competitive election” that “represents a new period for Nigerian politics and democracy.” – Foreign Policy

Cybersecurity

The Biden administration is considering pushing Congress to give it more legal power to deal with TikTok and other technology that could expose sensitive data to China, five people with knowledge of the matter said, as it comes under growing pressure to resolve security concerns about the Chinese-owned video app. – New York Times

German police said Monday they have disrupted a ransomware cybercrime gang tied to Russia that has been blackmailing large companies and institutions for years, raking in millions of euros. – Associated Press

Emily Harding writes: The new cyber strategy is a first step toward shifting the advantage back to the user, rather than the attacker. It states what should be obvious: the people who build the products should also ensure those products are secure. In no other product would consumers accept a standard of maybe-safe. It would be an outrage if home appliances, elevators, airplanes, or medicine had gone through only perfunctory safety testing before deployment. – Center for Strategic and International Studies