Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Netanyahu says war against Iran may take 'some time', but not years JPost Editorial: Strength and strain: Israel’s defense and societal resilience in the long war with Iran Trump sees weekslong war timeline in Iran Satellite imagery shows apparent attack on Iranian nuclear site, report says Over 1,000 IRGC and Iranian security officials killed since start of war, source tells 'Post' WSJ Editorial: Iran expands the Trump war coalition Heritage Foundation fellow Eugene Kontorovich: Iran was counting on the West’s cravenness Kremlin says continuing talks with Ukraine is in Russia's own interests Israel was ready to take on Hezbollah again. Now it can. Kuwait shoots down US jets in friendly-fire incident, US CENTCOM says Taiwan says it hopes Iran's people can soon enjoy freedom and democracy France floats nuclear deployment across EuropeIn The News
Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran may take “some time” but it will not take years. – Reuters
Gaza is rapidly running out of its limited fuel supply and stocks of food staples may become tight, officials say, after Israel blocked the entry of fuel and goods into the war-shattered territory, citing fighting with Iran. – Reuters
The Israeli military has prepared for a campaign against Iran that could last several weeks but is unlikely to see the deployment of ground forces, a military spokesperson told reporters on Tuesday. – Reuters
Israeli government agency COGAT said it will reopen the Kerem Shalom crossing starting on Tuesday for the gradual entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. – Reuters
Israel and the United States will not stop their operations against Iran until their objectives are met and will do everything necessary to ensure Tehran does not have nuclear capabilities, Israel’s ambassador to the U.N. said on Monday. – Reuters
In any other year, it would be almost impossible to move through Tel Aviv’s Dizengoff Square on the Jewish holiday of Purim. – CNN
Sirens sounded over Jerusalem and the surrounding areas on Tuesday morning due to a suspected hostile aircraft infiltration. The IDF, investigating the incident, confirmed that it was triggered by a false alarm. – Jerusalem Post
At least 19 people were injured Monday when an Iranian ballistic missile hit the southern city of Beersheba, amid several barrages fired throughout the day. – Times of Israel
An Israeli Air Force aircraft struck and thwarted a cell of operatives from the Iranian terrorist regime’s air defense array as they attempted to operate systems against the IDF. – Arutz Sheva
Israel’s Consul General in New York, Ofir Akunis, spoke about the joint US-Israeli operation in Iran in an interview with CNN, saying Israel is doing what needs to be done to save Western civilization. – Arutz Sheva
Editorial: Israel is very good at the short game; the long game requires something else: steadiness without denial, strength without bravado, and a national conversation that allows for pride and fatigue to coexist. If this campaign is indeed about removing the “head of the octopus” once and for all, it will not be won by airpower alone. It will be won by a society that understands both its power and its limits, and chooses to protect both with equal seriousness. That balance, more than any single strike, is what will determine whether we emerge not only secure but whole. – Jerusalem Post
Hal Brands writes: Israeli assertiveness sometimes unnerves Arab countries — witness its strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar last fall. But the US-Israel alliance still creates a powerful pole of attraction: In an unsettled region, what team would you rather be on? The fact that a wounded Iran has lashed out against its Arab neighbors with missiles and drones merely strengthens that argument. Once this conflict ends, Trump will surely seek deeper Arab-Israeli integration. If he’s successful, this powerful US-Israel alliance could form the nucleus of a still-mightier coalition that sets the tone in the Middle East for years to come. – Bloomberg
Aron Buskila writes: Iran now stands at its own crossroads – between deeper radicalization and internal chaos, or a change of course that reintegrates it into the international community with renewed state responsibility. Israel must leverage the achievements of Operation Roaring Lion not merely to deter, but to shape. A sober security doctrine recognizes that confronting terror axes is essential for regional stability – but also that their weakening creates a rare opportunity to build a new order grounded in security, cooperation, and regional growth. – Jerusalem Post
Barry Shaw writes: Iron Beam works best against slower rockets or drones. The weapon fires hundreds of “coin-sized” laser beams and once the first hit is detected then the other beams are re-directed to that same spot. The success of Iron Beam will lead to many governments to order it as the new cornerstone of their missile and drone defensive system born out of Israel’s essential need to protect its people from multiple enemies often targeting the Jewish State at the same time as we have seen over the last few years. Iran’s failure is Israel’s success. – Arutz Sheva
Iran
U.S. attacks on Iran are projected to last four or five weeks but could go longer, President Trump said on Monday as he and other officials offered new rationales for the strikes conducted with Israel since Saturday. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. is facing increasing risks to its military forces and diplomatic presence in the Middle East as Iran is launching waves of missile and drone attacks across the region that are testing its ability to defend a swath of territory. – Wall Street Journal
Iran’s paralyzation of tanker traffic through a key waterway and drone attacks on critical energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar have brought the Mideast conflict to the energy industry, raising the risk of disruption to energy supplies and the global economy. – Wall Street Journal
At the White House on Monday, President Trump said that destroying Iran’s missile capabilities was one of the top objectives of the U.S. attacks in the country. But finding and destroying Iran’s entire arsenal of ballistic missiles as well as their production sites could be particularly challenging for the U.S. and Israeli militaries, which jointly began attacking Iran on Saturday. – New York Times
Iran is detaining at least six U.S. citizens or permanent residents, according to detainee advocates, raising fears they and thousands of Americans believed trapped in the country could be used as bargaining chips in the escalating war with the U.S. and Israel. – Reuters
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said a fuel tanker, identified as the Honduran-flagged Athe Nova, was burning in the Strait of Hormuz after being hit by two drones, Iranian news agencies reported on Monday. – Reuters
Commercial satellite imagery has captured what appears to be the first known strikes on an Iranian nuclear site since the start of the U.S.-Israeli air operation, an independent policy institute said on Monday. – Reuters
The Israeli military said late on Monday it has begun a new wave of strikes on Tehran. The strikes came after it issued an evacuation warning for residents in Tehran, particularly those residing near state broadcaster IRIB’s headquarters. – Reuters
The “big wave” is yet to come in the war with Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump told CNN on Monday, adding that Washington did not know who the country’s new leader would be following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. – Reuters
Hundreds of Iranians crossed the border into Turkey on Monday afternoon as the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran expanded, a Reuters witness said, with those arriving speaking of fear in Tehran and queues at petrol stations. – Reuters
The World Health Organization said on Monday that a hospital in Iran’s capital has been evacuated after explosions nearby and that it is working to verify reports that three other medical centres in the country had been hit since the start of the U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran on February 28. – Reuters
Iran’s leaders are scrambling to replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who ruled the country for 37 years before he was killed in the surprise U.S. and Israeli bombardment. – Associated Press
The United Nations nuclear watchdog said military action alone won’t be able to resolve ambiguity over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. – Bloomberg
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US military would step up its attacks against Iran, a stark warning after two days of strikes across the country that the Trump administration says took out its leadership and targeted its ballistic-missile program. – Bloomberg
Israel estimates that 1,000-1,500 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranian security forces have been killed in the strikes so far, an Israeli source told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post
US President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, revealed on Monday that, during his talks with Iran on a potential nuclear deal, the Iranians boasted of their ability to make 11 nuclear bombs. – Arutz Sheva
Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi said he envisions peace and strategic partnership with Israel in a future Iran, declaring in an interview with CBS News 60 Minutes that “the strategic importance of having a partnership with Israel is critical.” – Arutz Sheva
Editorial: Suddenly, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has reversed himself to allow the U.S. to use its air bases, including Diego Garcia, for Iran operations. France declared itself “ready” to help defend the Gulf states. Greece is sending warships and fighter jets to defend Cyprus. Even European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says “a credible transition in Iran is urgently needed.” An exception to this trend is Spain, the laggard of NATO, which won’t let the U.S. use its jointly operated bases for the bombing campaign. Iran’s regime still has useful idiots on whom it can rely, but its retaliation has increased the need and grown the constituency for regime change. – Wall Street Journal
Eugene Kontorovich writes: The Trump administration should draw lessons from Israel’s experience. A quick end to a conflict can be tempting but self-defeating. This war cannot end like a Marvel movie, with the bad guy exiled to an ice planet in another universe, from which it is only a matter of time before he escapes to threaten the world again. A wounded Islamic Republic won’t be humbled. It will rebuild its terror capabilities with a vengeance. The amazing confluence of brave and aligned leaders in Washington and Jerusalem won’t last forever, and they must treat this as the last opportunity to remove this threat. – Wall Street Journal
Joseph Bosco writes: The Russian people, similarly, have soured on Vladimir Putin, as they have increasingly borne the human and economic costs of his reckless war against Ukraine. As long as Trump has such a deferential, even subservient, relationship with the Russian leader, a campaign of regime change in Moscow is highly unlikely for the duration of the Trump presidency. Tyrannical rulers like Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un care little about an American president’s reputation for honor or morality, except to the extent that the lack of those qualities gives them greater leverage. They are impressed only by the exercise of raw power. A successful U.S. campaign of regime change could do more to restore America’s global leadership than all the bonhomie between Trump and the world’s dictators. – The Hill
Eli Avidar writes: Freedom is near, but it is not a gift. Regime officials may be in shock, but shock alone does not create a revolution. There are moments when history opens a narrow window – and those who dare step through it. Freedom is not something that is given. Freedom is taken. It is a natural right of every person born free, and such a right is not requested in a whisper. It is demanded, and it is acted upon. – Jerusalem Post
Veysi Dag writes: For Iran’s estimated 10 million Kurds, skepticism is rooted in this experience. Overcoming it will require more than calls for regime change.: It will require a concrete vision of governance that guarantees autonomy, participation, and equal rights within a shared national framework. Without such assurances, divisions within the opposition will persist, and the clerical regime will continue to exploit them. – Jerusalem Post
Russia and Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone to leaders of four Arab Gulf states on Monday, offering to use Moscow’s ties to Iran to try to help restore calm to the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli strikes, which he condemned. – Reuters
A new round of U.S.-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, scheduled for week, has not been canceled following the weekend strikes on Iran by the U.S. and Israel, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday. – Reuters
Ukrainian troops have retaken nine settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region since the end of January and are pressing ahead with a counterattack along the southeastern frontline, the Ukrainian general staff said on Monday. – Reuters
Ukraine will complete the technical work needed to open negotiations on all topics for its European Union accession process within days, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday. – Reuters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that Russia’s military had failed to achieve aims it set out last year and would have difficulty fulfilling advances he said Moscow hoped to achieve. – Reuters
Russia’s Sheskharis oil terminal suspended oil loadings on Monday following a Ukrainian drone attack that injured five, damaged 20 buildings and set a fuel terminal on fire, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials and three trade sources. – Reuters
The Kremlin said on Monday that it was in Russia’s own interests to continue peace talks with Ukraine and that Moscow’s preference was still to reach a diplomatic settlement to end the fighting. – Reuters
Russia’s embassy in Turkmenistan said on Monday that Russians unable to leave Iran could depart via Turkmenistan, a Central Asian former Soviet republic which shares a 1,148-kilometre (713-mile) border with northeastern Iran. – Reuters
Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered to send his best experts in shooting down Iranian drones to the Middle East if leaders there convince Vladimir Putin to agree to a month-long truce in Russia’s war on Ukraine. – Bloomberg
A protracted war in the Middle East could reduce the availability of air defenses for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, acknowledging potential ripple effects from the US-led bombing campaign in Iran. – Bloomberg
Marc Champion writes: A spike in global oil prices would come to the rescue. So, too, any reduction in the availability of US missiles and interceptors, or — better still — a perception in the White House that after Iran the US needs a ceasefire in Ukraine, regardless of the terms. Whatever pressure Putin may have felt to make concessions to secure a lasting peace settlement would dissipate. Sooner rather than later, Trump and his security advisers should start weighing what more can be gained from prolonged war with an already defanged Iranian foe, against the depletion of capabilities the US may need to deter far more dangerous potential challenges, both from Moscow and from Beijing. Loosing a Tomahawk or Patriot missile takes minutes. Replacing one takes up to two years. – Bloomberg
David R. Henderson and Ryan Sullivan writes: Conquering a territory of this size has come at a cost of approximately $90 million per square mile in blood and treasure. Of course, these costs, while borne by Russian society largely through conscription and lower living standards, are not borne in the same way by Putin himself. Napoleon, the inventor of modern conscription, was once told that a planned operation would cost too many men. He replied, “That is nothing. The women produce more of them than I can use.” Possibly Putin has a similar attitude. – Defense News
Sean Wilson writes: However, decline does not necessarily mean less dangerous. Dwindling overlapping interests in space could further tilt Russia toward destabilizing behavior and acting as a spoiler. As the Office of the Director of National Intelligence noted in a 2025 report, “Russia is developing a new satellite meant to carry a nuclear weapon as an antisatellite capability.” New START’s expiration also takes with it the provision “not to interfere with the national technical means of verification of the other Party” with respect to verifying compliance with the treaty. Depending on the course Russia pursues in space post–New START, it could compel a U.S. response that could have implications for China as well. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Hezbollah
The Lebanese militia Hezbollah didn’t step in to help its patron Iran when it was at war with Israel last year. This time around, Hezbollah did, sending small volleys of rockets and drones into northern Israel on Monday morning, opening a new front in the conflict. – Wall Street Journal
Lebanon’s government on Monday banned military activities by Hezbollah after it opened fire on Israel to avenge the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, a move likely to fuel tension with the Tehran-backed group as it faces a new Israeli offensive. – Reuters
The Israeli military on Tuesday struck a building housing Hezbollah-aligned Al-Manar channel studios in Beirut’s southern suburbs following an evacuation warning, the channel said. In a statement, the Israeli military said it targeted “Hezbollah command centers and weapons storage facilities in Beirut – Associated Press
Lebanon
In villages across the country’s southern region near the Israeli border, parents bundled sleepy children into cars and crawled through miles of traffic toward the capital, Beirut, many clutching little more than a change of clothes. – New York Times
European Council President Antonio Costa said on Monday he welcomed the Lebanese government’s decision to end Hezbollah’s military activities and its demand that those responsible for firing at Israel be brought to justice. – Reuters
The IDF on Monday night confirmed the killing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Lebanon commander, Abu Hamza Rami, in a strike on Beirut earlier in the day. – Jerusalem Post
Israel is preparing to expand the campaign in Lebanon, including the possibility of a ground incursion, an Israeli security source told the Saudi channel Al-Hadath. – Arutz Sheva
Fadi Nicholas Nassar writes: Most of all, President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Salam must finally grasp the new strategic reality in the region and the full weight of the historic moment they occupy. They, too, must make it unmistakably clear to the Lebanese people, to the region, and to Washington that they can be counted on to disarm Hizballah. Their success will not only spare Lebanon from a major military escalation with Israel but also help the country establish its place in a new regional order by proving that a sovereign state can rise above sectarian militias. – Middle East Institute
Gulf States
An oil tanker flying the U.S. maritime flag was attacked as it was docked in the port of Bahrain, according to Crowley, the Florida-based company operating the vessel. – New York Times
Qatar said on Monday that its Air Force shot down two Iranian bomber jets, indicating a new escalation as Iran lashes out at its Persian Gulf neighbors in retaliation for the ongoing U.S. and Israeli attacks. – New York Times
Flights resumed on a limited basis from Dubai International Airport on Monday night, as the U.S.-led attack on Iran caused widening chaos in the Middle East and tens of thousands of passengers faced travel disruptions. – New York Times
The United States Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was attacked by two drones according to initial estimates from the Saudi Ministry of Defense in a statement early on Tuesday morning in the Middle East, as Iran appeared to be expanding its assault on American allies in the region. – New York Times
Kuwait’s air defences mistakenly shot down three U.S. F-15 fighter jets during active combat on Monday, U.S. Central Command said on Monday, describing it as an apparent friendly-fire incident during the conflict with Iran. – Reuters
The U.S. Department of State on Monday called on Americans to immediately depart more than a dozen countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, amid U.S-Israeli strikes against Iran. – Reuters
Italy has received requests for air defence and anti-drone systems from Gulf countries caught up in the conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States, Rome’s defence minister told lawmakers on Monday. – Reuters
France is ready to help Gulf countries targeted by Iranian retaliatory strikes, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Monday, adding that the Israeli and U.S. initial strikes against Iran should have been debated beforehand at the United Nations. – Reuters
The United Arab Emirates and Qatar are privately lobbying allies to help them persuade President Donald Trump to reach for an off-ramp that would keep US military operations against Iran short, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg
Lionel Laurent writes: Still, as we wait for the war to unfold, there is a non-negligible risk of prolonged economic difficulty. This matters beyond the region. Dubai’s last meaningful downturn was in 2008, when the global credit crunch slammed the brakes on property speculation and over-ambitious building. The economy looks to be on sturdier footing today, but those missile interceptors will determine exactly how steady. The real UAE influencers today are the ones urging Trump to find an off-ramp. – Bloomberg
Middle East & North Africa
The Middle East conflict has significantly delayed container shipping’s return to the Suez Canal, the chief executive of German carrier Hapag-Lloyd said. – Wall Street Journal
Egypt has raised its level of military readiness as regional tension increases amid US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation across the region. – The National
Walter Russell Mead writes: In Mr. Trump’s 21st-century version, when it comes to oil exporters like Venezuela and Iran, one doesn’t even need to seize the customs house. An offshore fleet can block their oil shipments. Compliance opens the oil spigot; resistance shuts it down. Iran is heavily dependent on oil. The American president evidently hopes that this dependency can provide him the leverage he seeks over Tehran. One can call this approach cynical and neocolonial, but at least the strategy isn’t aimed at throttling oil shipments. If Venezuela and Iran see things Mr. Trump’s way, they will be able to pump and sell more oil in the future than they can today—and at better prices. Diogenes the Cynic famously carried a lantern searching for an honest man. Mr. Trump doesn’t need an honest man. He just needs a deal maker. – Wall Street Journal
China
The détente between China and the United States was already fragile. Now it faces a new strain: the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, an American-backed strike that Beijing denounced as a blatant attempt at regime change. – New York Times
China’s annual parliament meeting is expected to show tolerance for slightly slower economic growth this year, opening the door for greater, albeit not decisive, efforts to curb industrial overcapacity and rebalance the export-reliant economy. – Reuters
China’s foreign minister urged Gulf countries to unite to oppose external interference on Monday, after U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran triggered a widening conflict in the region. – Reuters
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on Iran to pay attention to the “reasonable concerns” of its neighbors, after Tehran’s retaliation against US and Israeli attacks included strikes on other Gulf nations. – Bloomberg
Reports have swirled in recent months of Chinese air defense systems destined for Iran alongside claims China is shipping missile propellant ingredients to the Islamic Republic, although neither side has publicly commented. After Trump’s strike, China’s Foreign Ministry dismissed a separate account that Beijing was poised to arm Iran with supersonic anti-ship missiles as “not true.” – Bloomberg
The Chinese Navy has “dramatically increased” submarine production and could soon deploy a new vessel that’s able to hit “large portions” of the US with nuclear missiles from Chinese waters, according to the head of intelligence for the US Navy. – Bloomberg
Beijing said Washington gave the government no advance warning of its attack on Iran, as it called for an immediate end to the hostilities. – Bloomberg
Karishma Vaswani writes: Chinese leaders are also deeply sensitive to images of social unrest toppling regimes. If Iranians were to “take over” their government, as Trump has urged, Beijing would worry less about geopolitics and more about the possibility — however remote — of contagion, even in the tightly surveilled and controlled society. The broader lesson Beijing will draw from this is that only the strong survive in Trump’s world. Beefing up its already extensive nuclear arsenal will take on fresh urgency, while it simultaneously accelerates technological self-reliance to reduce exposure to America. The strikes on Tehran are not a setback for China. They are a lesson to absorb — and, if the US becomes distracted in a prolonged Middle East conflict, an opportunity to exploit. – Bloomberg
Lavender Au writes: The United States still matters to people in China as a point of reference. But these days, the reference is commonly negative, at least with regards to food prices, medical bills, guns, drugs, and urban safety. America’s cultural exports now compete with many others, including China’s. And U.S. industry no longer dominates many sectors—not technology, where China is a major contender, and certainly not green energy, where China is particularly strong. The kill-line discourse captures the growing skepticism that America is inherently a better place to live. – The Atlantic
South Asia
U.S. Marines opened fire on demonstrators during the storming of the Karachi consulate over the weekend, two U.S. officials said on Monday—a rare use of force at a diplomatic post that could sharply escalate tensions in the country amid widespread protests over the killing of Iran’s leader. – Reuters
India, a fast-growing oil consumer, is the country most vulnerable to crude supply shocks if the Middle East conflict leads to a prolonged disruption in shipments from the region, mainly because of its thin reserves, analysts said. – Reuters
Pakistan sent the military into Himalayan Gilgit-Baltistan region on Monday and banned large gatherings nationwide after deadly protests against U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran spread, with 26 dead so far. – Reuters
Everybody wants a photograph with Balendra Shah. The rapper-turned-politician – better known as Balen – dominating Nepal’s electoral race was surrounded by supporters in the country’s east last week, ahead of a March 5 election that could be pivotal in the mountainous nation locked between China and India. – Reuters
Afghanistan and Pakistan said on Monday that their militaries had targeted each other’s posts across the border as their fighting entered a fifth day, fuelling instability in a region rocked by U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation. – Reuters
Pakistan’s president on Monday defended his country’s ongoing military strikes in neighboring Afghanistan, saying Islamabad tried all forms of diplomacy before targeting militants operating from Afghan territory, and called on the Taliban government in Kabul to disarm groups responsible for attacks in Pakistan. – Associated Press
Andy Mukherjee writes: Though the Supreme Court curbed some of his power to weaponize trade, Trump still retains substantial ammunition to bring back high tariffs under other laws. While it may be too late to do anything about New Delhi’s ballooning gold liabilities, the strike in the Middle East opens up space for a hard-nosed renegotiation of India’s energy red lines: Washington should either grant waivers for Russian oil imports or provide access to US strategic reserves at preferential prices. Other than that, it’s just hopes and prayers. Unless the latest geopolitical conflagration is extinguished quickly, several economic flames are bound to leap toward India. – Bloomberg
Nilofar Sakhi writes: Ultimately, the current crisis reflects deeper structural issues: unresolved border disputes, militant sanctuaries, regional rivalries, and the long shadow of proxy warfare. Without sustained diplomatic engagement and credible counterterrorism cooperation, the risk is not only bilateral confrontation but also broader regional destabilization. The strategic question now is how to deal with the Afghan Taliban, whose role as rulers in Afghanistan poses an existential threat to both the country and regional stability. They have failed to bring security or governance to Afghanistan, and continue to maintain ties with transnational terrorist networks. Addressing this challenge is critical, as allowing the Taliban’s unchecked influence could further destabilize the region, embolden extremist groups, and threaten regional security. – The National Interest
Asia
Myanmar’s military ruler collects titles. Senior General. Army Commander in Chief. Brave and Glorious Protector of Buddhism. Great Hero of the Union of Myanmar. Defender of Truth. Doctor of Public Administration. Acting President. – New York Times
The widening Iranian conflict is disrupting oil flows to several Asian countries as vessels are bottled up within the Middle East Gulf and crude and transport costs are rising, industry sources and analysts said on Monday. – Reuters
Taiwan supports the international community’s efforts to help Iran’s people pursue freedom and democracy and hopes that they can enjoy these things soon, the island’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday, offering its backing to the U.S. and Israel. – Reuters
Australia said on Tuesday that all of its defence personnel stationed at the Al Minhad Air Base near Dubai were safe following a drone attack at the site over the weekend. “All the Australians who are there are safe and accounted for. There were no injuries to Australians,” Defence Minister Richard Marles told reporters in Canberra. – Reuters
Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister discussed events in Iran and throughout the Middle East on Monday with counterparts from Central Asia and Azerbaijan, the Kazakhstan Foreign Ministry said. – Reuters
Malaysia’s lower house of parliament on Monday narrowly rejected a constitutional amendment that would limit the premiership to two terms, in a vote marked by high abstention, although without explicit ‘nays’. – Reuters
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in Australia on Tuesday, aiming to bolster relations between the two so-called “middle powers” amid what he has called a “rupture” in world order. – Reuters
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she’ll have frank talks on Iran when she meets US President Donald Trump in Washington later this month. – Bloomberg
New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said he misspoke when he stated that his center-right government supported “any actions” to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, further muddying his message on the Middle East conflict. – Bloomberg
Daniel Moss writes: Kevin Warsh, the former Fed governor picked by President Donald Trump to succeed Powell, might well be tempted to take the plunge. Warsh, who left the central bank before the dot-plot era, promised “regime change” when he pitched for the chair job. For all their flaws, dots do provide at least some insight into longer-range thinking. And that can be useful when central banks are on the cusp of potential transitions. Rhee’s term ends in April and he hasn’t given much indication whether he wants re-appointment; President Lee Jae Myung hasn’t had a lot to say, either. The dot plot, Seoul style, needs a very tight leash. If it doesn’t prove illuminating, drop it and move on. – Bloomberg
Cheng Li-Wun writes: Taiwan should not be a passive object of geopolitical pressure, valued only for what others project onto it. To be a genuine stabilizing force, Taiwanese leaders need to broaden the island’s economic base beyond semiconductor dominance, reorient defense spending away from symbolic procurement, and open controlled channels to Beijing rather than treating all engagement as capitulation. Only by actively shaping its strategic environment can Taiwan ensure durable peace across the strait and a vibrant economy and society at home. – Foreign Affairs
Europe
Conflict in the Middle East will cause shockwaves across the world, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned, calling for Europe and the wider world to prepare for the impact. – Wall Street Journal
Investors flocked to European defense companies in early trade Monday, as the conflict in the Middle East widens and missile technology comes into focus. On the third day of the conflict, the U.S. and Israeli militaries continued to strike Iran, while Israel also hit Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. – Wall Street Journal
France will increase its stockpile of nuclear warheads and may, for the first time, temporarily deploy them on allies’ territory, effectively broadening the country’s nuclear deterrence amid mounting doubts about the U.S. security commitment to Europe. – Wall Street Journal
As American and Israeli warplanes continue to bombard Iranian cities, European allies have been left in a familiar place: on the sidelines. President Trump cut them out of planning for a conflict that has direct implications for their security. – New York Times
The Spanish government on Monday said that it had denied the use of its military bases to U.S. forces involved in the attack on Iran, including key refueling aircraft that departed Spain for other countries on Sunday. – New York Times
British foreign minister Yvette Cooper said on Monday that her team was looking at all options, including evacuation, to help hundreds of thousands of UK citizens leave Gulf countries which are now being targeted by Iran. – Reuters
Greek authorities have detained a 36-year-old man on suspicion of spying on a U.S. naval base on the island of Crete, a strategic facility for the United States in the eastern Mediterranean, police and intelligence sources said on Monday. – Reuters
Denmark has entered an agreement on strategic nuclear deterrence with France, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Monday. – Reuters
Bulgaria’s former President Rumen Radev has registered a three-party political alliance called Progressive Bulgaria to run in a parliamentary election on April 19, the country’s eighth in seven years, he said on Monday. – Reuters
Prime Minister Keir Starmer defended his actions in the Middle East on Monday, brushing off President Donald Trump’s criticism of Britain for not joining strikes against Iran by saying his decisions were guided by law and the “national interest”. – Reuters
The exiled “crown prince” of Iran is calling on Europe’s leaders to back Donald Trump’s military campaign and support efforts to replace the religious dictatorship with democracy. – Politico
Seth Mandel writes: Suddenly even those who don’t want to get involved in this conflict abstain from making self-degrading, pusillanimous statements about proportionality, or “just taking the win,” or other such euphemisms for permitting one’s attacker to remain on his feet. Now that Britons are being threatened, Europeans find clarity: You must neutralize the threat, not because you like war but because you have an obligation to neutralize the threat. Suddenly even Keir Starmer knows he cannot settle for some point-making retaliatory strikes and call it a day. Welcome to the real world, everyone. You’re late. – Commentary Magazine
Africa
On a January evening in Woro, a village in Nigeria, a man approached Umar Bio Salihu, the village chief, and handed him a crudely torn piece of paper from an exercise book […] The letter was signed by the Nigerian terrorist group Boko Haram. – New York Times
The United States imposed sanctions against Rwanda’s military on Monday as punishment for actions that it said sabotaged a peace deal in the Democratic Republic of Congo. – New York Times
The U.S. has made progress in its push to prise Congo’s strategic minerals from China’s orbit, but conflict, contested licences and compliance demands are still slowing Washington’s advance into a region its rival dominates, diplomats and industry officials said. – Reuters
The death toll from an attack by a group of unidentified men in a town in South Sudan’s Ruweng Administrative Area on Sunday has risen to 169 people from an earlier estimate of 122, the area’s information minister said on Monday. – Reuters
Senegal’s Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko said he was willing to take his party out of the government and return to opposition if President Bassirou Diomaye Faye breaks from its vision amid rumours of a power struggle between the two party colleagues. – Reuters
The main corridor for the Democratic Republic of Congo’s copper, cobalt and other mineral exports is expected to reopen on Tuesday after road damage halted flows, Zambia’s infrastructure minister told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters
The Americas
Brazil’s government expects to mobilize more than 250 billion reais ($48.4 billion) in sustainable investments during President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s current four-year term, with 2026 centered on consolidating initiatives already underway, former international affairs secretary Tatiana Rosito said. – Reuters
As Chile prepares to swear in its most radical free-market government in over 35 years, many analysts and traders can’t drag their attention away from the US, Iran and President Donald Trump. – Bloomberg
Venezuela sharply increased its oil exports in February, sending roughly twice as many barrels abroad compared with the previous month, when the Trump administration first exerted control of the country’s crude sales. – Bloomberg
Mark Feierstein and Mary Speck write: Both sides have incentives to participate in a genuinely democratic process. Although battered by years of economic decline and repression, supporters of the regime remain a potent political force. The opposition must also reassure voters—including the plurality of citizens who identify as independents—that they are willing and able to prioritize economic recovery. The long-suffering Venezuelan people are hopeful but unsure about their political future. They need leaders—in both Caracas and Washington, D.C.—ready to take decisive steps toward a genuine democratic opening. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
North America
Plainclothes counterintelligence agents from Cuba’s Interior Ministry knocked on the doors of community leaders living near a military outpost in Havana a few weeks ago, asking for the names of everyone in dozens of nearby homes. – New York Times
President Miguel Díaz-Canel of Cuba called on Monday for an “urgent” transformation of the country’s economic model, according to Cuban state media, as Cuba confronts an oil blockade by the Trump administration that has deepened a humanitarian crisis on the island. – New York Times
Cuba’s Interior Ministry has arrested 10 Panamanian citizens for making signs with “subversive content,” saying on Monday they had been sent to Cuba from Panama by undisclosed patrons who promised to pay them for creating a disruption. – Reuters
Haiti’s government opened a 10-day registration period Monday for political parties to run in an upcoming general election, a critical step for a country that hasn’t held one in more than a decade as deadly gang violence persists. – Associated Press
Juan Williams writes: Rubio is now picking up on aspects of the Obama strategy but avoiding Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel. Instead, he is personally reaching out to the Castro family, now led by Fidel’s brother, Raúl Castro. According to news reports, Rubio is proposing an end to the U.S. oil embargo and sanctions if Cuba agrees to allow American businesses in. With Raúl in bad health, Rubio’s negotiating partner is his grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro. What is known is that any deal will feature a Trump victory dance. Cue scenes of Rubio in tears and Trump comparing the U.S. return to Havana to the historic fall of the Berlin Wall. – The Hill
United States
Hours after he greenlighted a far-reaching military operation in Iran, President Trump was standing in a Mar-a-Lago ballroom, a white “U.S.A.” baseball cap atop his head, greeting guests at a charity event. – Wall Street Journal
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday sought to justify a broad, open-ended war on Iran, offering his most extensive public comments yet on an operation whose stated aims and timeline have shifted since it began over the weekend. – Reuters
U.S. first lady Melania Trump chaired a meeting of the United Nations Security Council on children and education in conflict on Monday, two days after U.S. President Donald Trump and Israel launched attacks on Iran that prompted a U.N. warning about child safety. – Reuters
The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran add yet more question marks around a U.S. economy already buffeted by on-and-off tariffs, weak hiring, and lingering inflationary pressures. – Associated Press
Donald Trump will attend the White House Correspondents’ Association’s annual dinner for the first time as president, joining an event to celebrate the press corps even as his administration has taken unprecedented steps to curtail media access and punish outlets they see as unfavorable. – Bloomberg
A federal appeals court rejected the Trump administration’s request to delay next steps in the fight over tariff refunds for importers, after the US Supreme Court struck down the president’s signature economic policy. – Bloomberg
Jewish Democratic leaders in New York condemned the US-Israeli strikes against Iran this week, marking a break from leading Jewish groups. – Times of Israel
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson on Monday provided his first public comments on the US operation against Iran, emphasizing that it would be “limited in scope” and “limited in objective.” – Arutz Sheva
Cybersecurity
Congressional Democrats are vowing to contest the Trump administration’s unprecedented actions against the artificial intelligence giant Anthropic PBC, which include a prohibition on all use in the federal government and by Pentagon contractors. – Bloomberg
Nearly all the traffic cameras in Tehran had been hacked for years, their images encrypted and transmitted to servers in Tel Aviv and southern Israel, according to two people familiar with the matter. – Financial Times
During a New York City Council oversight hearing on Monday, a representative from the city’s technology office struggled to answer questions about how agencies use artificial intelligence, biometric data and other surveillance tools. – Statescoop
The Department of Energy’s national labs are laying the groundwork for beefed-up AI infrastructure as the agency continues to advance Genesis Mission goals. – Fedscoop
The FBI’s cyber chief is prioritizing preparation for stepped-up Chinese threats, enhanced confrontation of adversaries in cyberspace and quicker intelligence sharing with industry as the bureau enters the second and final month of a unique cybersecurity awareness campaign. – Cyberscoop
Google disclosed one actively exploited zero-day vulnerability Monday, warning that the high-severity defect affecting an open-source Qualcomm display component for Android devices “may be under limited, targeted exploitation.” – Cyberscoop
An espionage campaign last year targeted government agencies and critical infrastructure operators in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, researchers at the cybersecurity firm Arctic Wolf said Monday. – The Record
OpenAI said it banned a network of ChatGPT accounts linked to the pro-Kremlin media outlet Rybar that used artificial intelligence to generate social media content and draft proposals for covert influence operations targeting Africa. – The Record
British organizations were warned on Monday to review and strengthen their cyber defenses amid the evolving conflict in the Middle East. In an advisory alert, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) said there was “likely no current significant change in the direct cyber threat from Iran to the UK, however due to the fast-evolving nature of the conflict, this assessment may be subject to change.” – The Record
Defense
The length of America’s military commitment to its confrontation with Iran depends on what the goals are. And they keep changing. On Sunday alone, President Trump and his allies offered at least two separate objectives for the assault on Iran, muddying Washington’s intentions for ending a conflict that has engulfed the Middle East and killed three American service members. – Wall Street Journal
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday would not rule out the possibility of sending American ground troops to Iran or articulate the Trump administration’s exit strategy as the Pentagon attempts to secure a quick, decisive victory while limiting U.S. bloodshed. – Washington Post
The U.S. military is looking for autonomous freighters that can transport supplies into dangerous waters, according to a Defense Innovation Unit solicitation. – Defense News
In his first message as the new director of the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit, Owen West stated that the organization’s efforts will focus on fielding emerging technologies that can keep warfighters out of harm’s way and be quickly scaled at low cost. – Defensescoop
Flipping Iran’s playbook by launching reverse-engineered, Shahed-like weapons as part of a coordinated air campaign, the U.S. military’s initial wave of strikes in Operation Epic Fury marked the first confirmed deployment of American-made, long-range, one-way attack drones in real-world combat. – Defensescoop