Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The U.S. and Israel are pounding Iran’s missile-launching sites, hitting some over and over across almost a month of war. But Tehran’s missiles keep flying. – Wall Street Journal

As the Trump administration pursues peace talks with Iran while amassing additional troops nearby, traders warn that each day the conflict goes on will exacerbate the energy shock and thrust the global economy as well as stocks and bonds into further peril. – Wall Street Journal

President Donald Trump said Thursday that he would delay attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure by an additional 10 days — extending for a second time his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as he cited progress in negotiations with Tehran. – Washington Post

President Trump’s war with Iran is testing the limits of his unorthodox diplomatic style as he grasps for a deal to end the conflict shaking the Middle East and the global economy. As the war stretches longer than Mr. Trump seems to have anticipated, he appears to be casting about for a diplomatic offramp even as he threatens to escalate the conflict. – New York Times

The Iranian embassy in Spain said on Thursday that ‌Iran would be receptive to any request from Madrid related to the Strait of Hormuz because Spain respects international law, in what is the first such concession offered to an EU state. – Reuters

The debate among Iranian hardliners over whether Tehran should seek a nuclear bomb in defiance of an escalating U.S.-Israeli attack is getting louder, more public and more insistent, sources in the country say. – Reuters

Iran has banned national and club sports teams from travelling to countries it ​considers hostile until further notice, Iranian media reported on ‌Thursday, citing the Sports Ministry, which said the move was due to concerns over the safety of its athletes. – Reuters

France said its ​military chief held talks with around 35 countries on Thursday as it sought partners and ‌proposals for a mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran ends. – Reuters

Iran and the United States appeared at an impasse Thursday, hardening their positions over ceasefire talks and setting the stage for more potential escalation in the Middle East war as thousands more U.S. troops neared the region. – Associated Press

At the top of Israel’s defense establishment, Defense Minister Israel Katz has defined the destruction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) surface-to-surface missile array as the highest priority since the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion. – Jerusalem Post

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) briefed US President Donald Trump on the possibility that Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei could be gay, the president confirmed in a Thursday interview with FOX News. – Jerusalem Post

Iranian security forces have adopted several methods to avoid Israeli and American strikes, with a common denominator: operating in close proximity to civilians, according to two Iranian citizens who spoke with The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Trump Administration officials tell us what the President surely knows: Four weeks of war have yielded valuable successes, but to end now would be an incomplete victory. Additional weeks can further degrade Iran’s capabilities and set back the regime’s threat to the region for years even if it survives. The U.S. and Israel took action because Iran’s fanatical regime threatened them, the region and the world. Waiting would have increased the danger. In response Iran’s regime has done what it does best: Take hostages. Tehran has tried to take hostage its neighbors, the Strait of Hormuz and the global economy with it. Seeing the mission through is a better option than chasing the regime with offers of ransom. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: In what world can anyone who took part in a system that brutally murdered tens of thousands of its own people simply for protesting be exonerated of its crimes just because he wasn’t in the captain’s chair when they took place? Deal or no deal, ceasefire or no ceasefire, it is an insult to the people of Iran, the people protesting for freedom and dying for it, to pretend that the current leadership is somehow new or much better than the previous one. The names may be different. The regime is not. – Jerusalem Post

Edward Fishman writes: Iran has learned the lessons of American foreign policy. It has used the tools at its disposal to exacerbate risk, forcing private actors to become unwitting tools of its statecraft. That strategy appears vindicated: It has delivered sanctions relief that years of diplomacy could not. Tehran may now conclude that further pressure is the best way to extract more concessions. What happens if other countries reach the same conclusion? If the world deals with the United States by fighting back, rather than negotiating, stability will be harder to achieve — and more costly once won. – New York Times

Asher Stern writes: As Iran’s ability to manage escalation weakens, its partners are not falling into line. They are improvising. That means fewer clear signals, less centralized control, and a greater risk of miscalculation across multiple fronts. The era of a tightly managed proxy network may be ending. What replaces it will be more fragmented, more reactive, and in many ways more dangerous. – Jerusalem Post

Amine Ayoub writes: This means moving beyond economic sanctions and systematically degrading the IRGC’s naval command centers, coastal radar installations, and missile batteries in Bandar Abbas—tactical measures that align with the Israel Defense Forces’ current operational posture. A durable regional security architecture cannot be built on fragmented agreements. It requires acknowledging that the economic restriction of the Middle East is a primary security threat. The United States and its allies cannot negotiate a lasting settlement while critical global shipping lanes remain subject to extra-legal transit fees. It is time to reassess the scope of the 15-point plan, restore open access to the Strait of Hormuz, and ensure international trade is no longer leveraged as a geopolitical weapon. – Ynet

Farzin Nadimi writes: From a Western perspective, the appointment of Zolghadr should not be reassuring. Unlike earlier SNSC secretaries such as Larijani, his record suggests deep involvement with the regime’s internal machinery and far less visible experience dealing with foreign counterparts, portending a future characterized by internal regime coherence at the expense of flexibility with outside actors. Of course, he is not the sole power center in the current degraded Iranian leadership. Qalibaf holds sway as does current IRGC Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi and, to a much lesser extent, retired former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei. But the broader point stands: the visible center of gravity in Tehran rests with the IRGC, leaving clerics notably less prominent as managers of the crisis. – Washington Institute

James F. Jeffrey writes: A compromise with Iran would not entirely end the risk of a new war and would require continued American vigilance. Critics might decry it as too little to justify the huge military effort and risks of the present campaign. Nevertheless, compromise now would contribute more to the underlying goals of regional stabilization and American credibility than the alternatives of regime change or allowing Tehran to re-create the means to threaten the region. And most important, it would prevent Iran from becoming a trap for the United States similar to what Ukraine has been for Russia. – Foreign Affairs

Thomas Wright writes: The gap between the two sides makes the collapse of talks likely. The American framework is, in essence, a demand for Iran’s surrender. The administration’s 15-point proposal, delivered to Iran via Pakistan, requires Tehran to dismantle its entire uranium-enrichment infrastructure, surrender its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, sever all ties with proxy forces across the region, and accept strict limits on its conventional military. In exchange, Washington is offering sanctions relief and support for a civilian nuclear-energy program. The proposal is very similar to the deal that the United States put on the table before the bombing campaign began. – The Atlantic

Hollie McKay and Olivier Guitta write: Even though six Western countries announced last week that they would help reopen the strait, the commitment is vague and likely to falter. Therefore, this leaves only the targeting of the Iranian forces stationed near the strait as the viable solution. This finally began last Friday when US warplanes and attack helicopters targeted Iranian drones and ships in order to counter Iran’s aggressive stance. While The New York Times reported on March 12 that Iran had started to mine the strait, it was likely done on a very small scale with the intention of sending a warning. In any case, Tehran may wish to keep the option of heavier mining open for further escalation. Iran doesn’t need to win a naval battle. By dumping cheap mines in the strait, Tehran can freeze billion-dollar warships and global oil alike. It is Hormuz that will determine if American strategy actually has what it takes to bring down the regime once and for all. – National Interest

Keith Johnson writes: Iran has spent decades threatening to use the leverage of its potential dominance over the world’s most vulnerable choke point, and now it has leveraged it and discovered a potentially lucrative way to take advantage of that, even if it is at odds with international law. Unless and until the United States—and any allies that eventually join—pry open the strait, by diplomacy or by force, Iran’s newfound leverage will be the new normal. That’s quite a legacy for a four-week war. – Foreign Policy

Hezbollah

IDF soldiers eliminated over 30 Hezbollah terrorists in recent days, the IDF announced on Thursday, including approximately 10 Radwan Force terrorists. – Jerusalem Post

When sirens once again sounded in this northern Israel town on a recent Thursday, Ala Ghassan, a paramedic trainee with Magen David Adom, gazed up at the sky with concern. – Jerusalem Post

43-year-old Uri Peretz was killed in Nahariya on Thursday by a direct hit after Hezbollah launched a wave of rockets at northern Israel, injuring twenty-five additional people. – Jerusalem Post

Gulf States

Saudi Arabia abruptly canceled two large construction contracts at one of the most ambitious projects in the world, scuttling plans to bring skiing to the desert kingdom. – Wall Street Journal

Stocks in the UAE rose in early trade on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said talks ​to end the war with Iran were “going well” ‌and he would postpone attacks on the country’s energy facilities for 10 days. – ⁠Reuters

The United Arab Emirates has told allies that it would participate in a multinational maritime task force intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as it lobbies to form a coalition to ensure shipping is able to pass through the vital Gulf waterway. – Financial Times

Korean Peninsula

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a friendship treaty on Thursday with North ‌Korean leader Kim Jong Un and presented him with an automatic rifle at a summit between two of Russia’s main allies in its war with Ukraine. – Reuters

Twenty-four-year-old Kim Min-sung’s gruelling schedule begins with ​intensive classes at Seoul’s Korea Foreign Language University followed by late nights at the library as he prepares for the notoriously competitive national ‌diplomatic exam, a traditional path to a lucrative, secure foreign-service career. – Reuters

South Korean ​flag carrier Korean ‌Air said on Thursday ​it plans ​to buy 103 ⁠Boeing planes ​between 2026 ​and 2039. That includes 20 B777-9s, 25 ​B787-10s, ​50 B737-10s, and eight ‌B777-8Fs, ⁠Korean Air said in a regulatory ​filing. – Reuters

Gordon G. Chang writes: Lee’s past words suggest he abhors the U.S. While campaigning for the presidential nomination of his Democratic Party of Korea in July 2021, for instance, he called American troops in his country an “occupying force.” And in remarks that appear to have been intended to inflame anti-American sentiment, he blamed the U.S. for maintaining Japan’s hated colonization of Korea. Some say Lee is an opportunist and was merely saying what he thought was popular at the time. Only he knows what he was really doing, but Lee’s party has a history of both opposing close ties with Washington and actively building relations with Beijing and Pyongyang. Whatever his intentions are today, Lee is advocating steps that could lead to another war on the Korean peninsula. – The Hill

Jun-seok Lee writes: This approach protects a global public good — freedom of navigation — while maintaining a clear boundary between contribution and direct combat involvement. It allows South Korea to uphold alliance commitments without compromising its own regional readiness or exposing itself to unnecessary strategic risk. Alliance trust is not sustained by requests alone, but by reciprocity and respect. If South Korea is expected to shoulder a greater responsibility for global security, then decisions that affect its own defense must be made as matters of joint determination — not unilateral adjustment. A durable alliance is not one in which burdens are simply shifted, but one in which they are shared with clarity, consultation, and strategic balance. – War on the Rocks

South Asia

Pakistan has been working the phones. Its leaders, who are close to both President Trump and President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran, have been passing messages between the two countries, according to a post on X by Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar. And they have made many, many calls. – New York Times

At President Trump’s inaugural Board of Peace meeting in Washington last month, his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, unveiled a promising new partnership with Pakistan. It was not a governmental decree against terrorism or war. Rather, it was an unorthodox real estate deal involving a shuttered hotel in Midtown Manhattan. – New York Times

India has secured crude oil supplies for the next 60 days, ensuring stable fuel supplies in the country despite disruption ​in shipments from the Middle East, the oil ministry said in ‌a statement on Thursday. – Reuters

At least 24 people died after a passenger bus carrying around ​40 passengers plunged into the Padma ‌River while attempting to board a ferry in Bangladesh, officials said on Thursday. – Reuters

Ben Dunant writes: However, Niraula warned that the party’s unrealistic campaign promises—including to more than double Nepal’s GDP and per capita income in five to seven years—risk repeating a dangerous “cycle of hope and disappointment.” “If you raise expectations up so high, the downfall is going to be steep and hard,” she said. For now, though, most Nepalis seem happy to put their trust in the RSP’s younger, less tainted leaders and are relieved at the prospect of a stable majority government. Years of shaky coalitions in Nepal produced 14 governments since 2008. The decisive election result may also soothe lingering fears that radical elements, including advocates of a restored Hindu monarchy, could exploit future instability. – Foreign Policy

Europe

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has emerged as one of Europe’s fiercest critics of the conflict in Iran. After Sánchez refused to allow his country’s military bases to be used for U.S. strikes against Tehran, President Trump threatened to cut trade with Spain. – Wall Street Journal

Earlier this month, Guy Wolf, the president of the Jewish Cultural Centre in Liège, Belgium awoke to alarming news: overnight, an IED was detonated outside his local synagogue, blowing out the windows and setting the front doors and nearby cars alight. – Wall Street Journal

European Union lawmakers voted to advance talks on the bloc’s trade deal with the U.S., bringing officials one step closer to implementing the accord. – Wall Street Journal

European arms maker CSG expects to boost production of medium and large caliber ammunition—its main revenue driver—through more acquisition and joint venture deals with suppliers, according to Chief Financial Officer Zdenek Jurak. – Wall Street Journal

Thyssenkrupp warned 1,200 jobs are at risk in Germany and France under plans to extend steel production cuts, as it grapples with competition from low-cost imports arriving into Europe. – Wall Street Journal

The conflict in the Middle East has had a modest impact on Europe’s financial system, but could yet lead to stress, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said Thursday. – Wall Street Journal

NATO’s European allies and Canada increased defence spending by 20% in 2025 compared to ​the previous year in real terms, alliance chief Mark Rutte ‌said in his annual report published Thursday, urging NATO members to keep up the momentum. – Reuters

Hungary’s opposition leader Peter Magyar called on the chief prosecutor late on Wednesday to launch a probe into what he called a state intelligence operation against his Tisza ​party, after a report by news site Direkt36 published this week. – Reuters

Cyprus will further cut value-added tax ​on electricity bills, reduce fuel taxes and ‌subsidise salaries in the key tourism industry to help people cope with cost increases due to the ​U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, President Nikos ​Christodoulides said on Thursday. – Reuters

The Iran conflict is causing a rise in tourist cancellations and a dive in new bookings in Cyprus ​and to a lesser extent other countries whose economies rely heavily on summer visitors. – Reuters

Norway’s parliament on Thursday passed a bill to temporarily cut ​petrol and diesel taxes, easing soaring ‌fuel costs in the wake of the war in the Middle East, which has driven up the price of oil. – Reuters

Montenegro is the “the most advanced country on the path” to joining the European Union but still needs to speed up reforms required for membership, according to the bloc’s top official for enlargement. – Bloomberg

Germany and Australia plan to improve space security through a joint network of sensors which will create a global early-warning system for satellite sabotage. – Bloomberg

European Union lawmakers finally approved a trade deal with the US, clearing a key obstacle for the long-delayed agreement despite lingering uncertainty about Washington’s tariffs. – Bloomberg

The Iran war, he said in an exclusive interview, risks triggering a “self-inflicted global recession” that could have more severe consequences for the economy than the coronavirus pandemic. And with Ukraine peace talks seeming indefinitely stalled, conflicts are now raging in Europe and the Middle East. – Politico

Tareq Alotaiba writes: The possible consequences of Europe’s approach — inaction — should be apparent to all as the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks approaches. The Hamburg cell, which took part in planning the terrorist atrocity, included the three al-Qaeda suicide pilots, Mohamed Atta, Marwan Al-Shehhi and Ziad Samir Jarrah. They were international students in Germany, and it was there that they were indoctrinated and radicalized in a mosque tied to the Muslim Brotherhood. The values of Western democracies created an environment that has protected the Muslim Brotherhood and allowed it to expand its influence. It took decades for Arab states to weaken the group’s influence. It would be a mistake for the West to assume it has that kind of time. – Washington Post

The Americas

Nicolás Maduro is being denied a fair trial on narcoterrorism charges, his lawyer said Thursday, telling a judge that the ousted Venezuelan president lacks the money to pay his legal bills and that the U.S. government has barred his country from contributing. – Wall Street Journal

Empty gas stations and price boards still displaying pre‑hike rates captured Chileans’ rising concerns as a steep fuel price hike announced by ​the government took effect on Thursday, immediately testing the strong public support that propelled right‑wing President Jose Antonio Kast into office. – Reuters

Argentine President Javier Milei’s administration has experienced a decline of nearly 5 percentage points in public approval in March, according ​to multiple polls, following recent corruption allegations directed at the ‌government. – Reuters

Argentina ​has designated the Jalisco New Generation Cartel as a terrorist ‌organization, the office of President Javier Milei announced on Thursday, a move that aligns the South American country more closely to the policy of ally the United ​States. – Reuters

The U.S. will ​bring additional ‌cases against deposed Venezuelan leader ​Nicolas ​Maduro, President Donald Trump ⁠told reporters ​during a ​cabinet meeting at the White House ​on Thursday. – Reuters

Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is struggling to respond to Flavio Bolsonaro’s rise in polls as tensions mount within his inner circle over how to counter the surge, adding to a string of crises denting his approval and threatening his chances in the final electoral campaign of his career. – Bloomberg

United States

President Trump said he would sign an executive order to free up money to pay Transportation Security Administration workers, moving to break a deadlock in Congress centered on a dispute over immigration-enforcement policies and funding. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration is putting President Trump’s signature on new U.S. paper currency in a first for a sitting president, the Treasury Department said Thursday. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration plans to require higher wages for foreign workers who come to the U.S. on visas for high-skilled employees, its latest move to discourage U.S. companies from hiring foreign nationals instead of American workers. – Wall Street Journal

A man who fled to China after leaving an explosive device outside MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa has been indicted along with his sister in Florida on federal charges, and their mother has been detained pending deportation for overstaying her visa, a federal prosecutor said Thursday. – Associated Press 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a US insurance program meant to boost shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will begin soon, a move that may help revive flows of much of the world’s oil and gas supplies. – Bloomberg

US President Donald Trump said NATO’s refusal to cooperate with US military operations in Iran was a “test” for the security alliance and that he would “remember” their response, ratcheting up his criticism of the bloc. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Enter Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who this week proposed a moratorium on data centers until Congress passes legislation requiring they run 100% on green energy and be built with union labor. They also demand that wealth generated by AI “is shared with the people”—i.e., a wealth tax—and that government approve AI products. Progressives want to do to AI what they have tried to do to fossil fuels—strangle it with red tape. Who cares that this would undermine U.S. defense? In their view, the biggest danger America faces is climate change, followed by billionaires. – Wall Street Journal

Jacob Heilbrunn writes: Trump has said that he wants to make Venezuela the 51st state and that it would experience its own “golden age.” His interior secretary, Doug Burgum, bragged that the administration has seized $100 million in gold from Venezuela. Meanwhile, Trump has visions of controlling Iran’s oil supplies. As he flails in Iran, Trump is vowing to send in the National Guard into American airports to fix another mess that he has singlehandedly created. Trump’s inability to accept defeat does not bode well for the next three years, as his sole mission will be to lash out at his real and perceived enemies. Golden age, indeed. – National Interest

Defense

Billions of dollars of highly sophisticated military equipment has been lost or significantly damaged since the U.S. and Israel began striking thousands of targets across Iran more than three weeks ago. The bulk of the damage on the ground has been caused by Iranian ballistic missiles and drones. – Wall Street Journal

The United States has deployed ​uncrewed drone speedboats for patrols as part of its operations against Iran, the Pentagon said, ‌the first time Washington has confirmed using such vessels in an active conflict. – Reuters

The Navy is cutting its program to develop the so-called Modular Attack Surface Craft (MASC), and is instead rolling out the first medium unmanned surface vessel (MUSV) marketplace as part of a new procurement model. – Breaking Defense

Jennifer Parker writes: For policymakers, the episode underscores the need to understand maritime warfare not as a peripheral concern but as a central feature of contemporary strategic competition. For naval commanders, it reinforces enduring truths about stealth, reach, and the unforgiving nature of combat at sea. More broadly, the incident signals that the United States remains willing to employ force along critical sea lines of communication when it judges such action lawful and strategically necessary. Maritime power is again shaping strategic outcomes in the Indo-Pacific. – War on the Rocks