Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The U.S. and its allies have intensified the battle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending low-flying attack jets over the sea lanes to blast Iranian naval vessels and Apache helicopters to shoot down Iran’s deadly drones, American military officials said. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump asserted on Thursday that he had no plans to commit ground forces to the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, even though he has acknowledged he is contemplating moves that could drag the military into land combat operations. – New York Times

The Trump administration said on Thursday that it planned to remove sanctions on Iranian oil, an unorthodox move intended to lower surging crude prices, which have hurt U.S. consumers and helped Iran profit. The strategy would be a sharp reversal from years of maximum-pressure sanctions aimed to cripple Iran’s economy. – New York Times

The U.S. objectives in its war against Iran have not changed since strikes started on February 28, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Thursday, and he accused the media of stirring ​up concerns that the U.S. risked being locked in an open-ended conflict with shifting priorities. – Reuters

Iran’s foreign minister called for vigilance and regional coordination in separate ​calls with counterparts in Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan ‌as the military warned of a tougher response to any further attacks on its energy infrastructure, state media reported on ​Thursday. – Reuters

A senior Russian official called on Thursday for the creation of a safety zone around Iran’s Russian-built Bushehr nuclear plant to prevent a major disaster, ​two days after a projectile struck within several hundred metres of ‌its reactor. – Reuters

A ​spokesperson for ‌Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary ​Guard ​Corps and its ⁠deputy ​of public ​relations, Ali Mohammad Naini, ​has ​been killed in ‌strikes ⁠launched by the U.S. ​and ​Israel, ⁠Iranian state ​TV ​reported ⁠on Friday. – Reuters

Israel has killed one senior Iranian leader after another in airstrikes as it seeks to topple the Islamic Republic. But its past experience of targeting senior militants shows the strategy has limits and can sometimes backfire. – Associated Press

Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and a veteran of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has emerged as the highest-profile political figure in the Islamic Republic after the killing of its leaders. – Agence France-Presse

Iranian authorities on Thursday gave the national women’s soccer team a hero’s welcome after their return to the Islamic Republic from Australia where some had made and then withdrawn asylum claims, amid accusations Iran had pressured their families. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: All of this is typical of an Iranian regime that wants to send a message to any would-be opponents that their punishment will be harsh and perhaps death. The more the regime and its enforcers are under siege, the more cruel they are likely to become. We report all this because the brutal nature of Iran’s regime has been all but ignored as the war continues. Democrats in the U.S. call Mr. Trump a war criminal, while suggesting that he is betraying the Iranian people because the regime is cracking down on them. Writers who devote entire forests to worrying about Gaza have nothing to say about the plight of the Iranian people. Mr. Trump at least understands who the real enemy is. – Wall Street Journal

David Ignatius writes: Trump’s dilemma in ending a war he bizarrely still calls “a little excursion” was clear in comments in the Oval Office on Thursday. “We can take out [Kharg] island anytime we want,” he said. But wary of going further down the slippery slope, he cautioned, “We’re not putting troops anywhere.” Finishing this war successfully will take a lot more planning and patience than Trump has shown so far. If he keeps flailing at imaginary enemies who refuse his demands for support, he’ll only make things worse. He got the world into this situation. Now he has an obligation to find a pathway out. – Washington Post

Rami Al Dabbas writes: Whether Iran can sustain both its confrontational Hormuz strategy and its degraded military posture remains uncertain. Some analysts assess that even a substantially weakened Iranian force retains capacity to disrupt commercial shipping. […] The cumulative effect of sustained airstrikes and apparent targeted elimination of senior officials has prompted wider assessment of regime stability. Security force assessments point to internal disarray, including reported defections and sagging morale—driven by irregular compensation, battlefield setbacks and the persistent vulnerability of personnel even in urban environments. – Ynet

David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team write: The IAEA’s reference to a “projectile” would generally imply that it was not a drone attack. The IAEA confirms that there was no damage to the reactor itself nor injuries to staff. Regardless, any impact near the Bushehr reactor is a highly dangerous development. We join IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in condemning any attacks in the vicinity of the reactor or of any electrical lines coming into the plant that may be needed to provide power to run reactor emergency systems.  Israel and the United States must make sure that the communication channels with Russia remain open and functioning, and all US and Israeli operational personnel are fully aware of the risks. – Institute for Science and International Security

Syria

The Israeli military struck infrastructure ​sites belonging to ‌the Syrian government overnight in response to ​attacks against ​Druze civilians in Sweida, ⁠the Israeli military ​said on Friday. – Reuters

The same week that an influential survey of global freedom named Syria as the most improved country in the world, Syrian authorities announced a crackdown on alcohol sales in Damascus amid persecution for those failing to fast for a full day during Ramadan. – Algemeiner

Kelly Kassis writes: It still retains enough leverage to ensure the ceasefire in the northeast is respected and to press for accountability inside the security forces, including curbing sectarian incitement and sidelining the most extreme elements rather than absorbing them. That means maintaining Syria’s State Sponsor of Terrorism designation and advancing measures such as the proposed Save the Kurds Act to reimpose targeted sanctions in response to violations. Without enforceable conditions, Syria risks a transition that either fractures, allowing the Islamic State to expand its operating space, or consolidates into an exclusionary Islamist order. Either way, the consequences will not be confined to Syria. – War on the Rocks

Gulf States

The latest attacks on oil-and-gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region marked a dangerous new phase for the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, worsening an energy-supply crisis that is already spreading rapidly across the globe. – Wall Street Journal

British energy major Shell said production at the world’s largest gas-to-liquids plant, Pearl GTL, has stopped after Iranian missiles struck the Ras Laffan complex in Qatar. – Wall Street Journal

United Arab Emirates authorities said on Friday they had dismantled ​a “terrorist network” funded and operated by Lebanon’s ‌Hezbollah and Iran, and arrested its members. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department on ​Thursday approved potential arms sales to ‌three Middle East countries worth more than $16.5 billion as the war with Iran intensifies. – Reuters

Gulf states have requested an urgent debate at the United ​Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva over Iran’s ‌strikes on civilians and energy infrastructure across the Middle East, documents show. – Reuters

A Kuwaiti oil refinery came under Iranian drone attack early Friday and sirens in Israel warned of incoming fire, while explosions boomed over Tehran from Israeli strikes as the country marked the Persian New Year. – Associated Press 

The United Arab Emirates’ ambassador to the US threw his weight behind his country’s massive investment plans in America, amid concerns that a prolonged war with Iran could strain government finances across the Persian Gulf. – Bloomberg

Editorial: The Gulf monarchies built modern states on a promise of order, growth, and security. Iran has attacked all three. They now face a test of seriousness. They can continue issuing balanced statements that age badly within hours, or they can join the camp that is actually trying to break the regime’s capacity to terrorize the region. This war has already reached their shores. The only question left is whether they will keep speaking as bystanders or finally act like stakeholders. – Jerusalem Post

Marc A. Thiessen writes: With or without allied help, the United States will eventually restore the flow of oil and gas in the Persian Gulf. For Trump, the request for assistance is less a matter of ensuring the success of the mission than a test of the viability of U.S. alliances. “I’ve long said that we’ll be there for them but they won’t be there for us,” he said this week. In the Strait of Hormuz, the smart allies have a chance to prove him wrong. – Washington Post

David Michel writes: Iran’s continuing coercive capacity to precipitate potential water crises across the GCC prospectively casts this premise into question. […] For insurers, investors—and inhabitants—potentially forced to envisage relying on tankers and trucks to bring vital water for their homes, hospitals, schools, and businesses, confidence in the continuing security of that business model could dry up long before the last water from their taps. More than 40 years ago, a classified CIA analysis, made public in 2010, called out the security vulnerabilities created by the Gulf countries’ dependence on desalination. The current conflict reveals with force that the dependence has deepened and the vulnerabilities remain. When the guns fall silent, GCC conceptions of their water security and of their national security will likely stand transformed. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Korean Peninsula

North Korean leader ​Kim Jong Un’s teenage daughter drove an army ‌tank with her father sitting behind her in photos from state news agency KCNA on Friday, with analysts suggesting ​she may be training to succeed him. – Reuters

A fire at a car ​parts factory in the South ‌Korean city of Daejeon has injured 55 people, 24 of them seriously, the fire agency said ​on Friday. President Lee Jae Myung ordered ​the mobilisation of all available resources ⁠to deal with the fire and ​save lives, the presidential Blue House ​said in a statement. – Reuters

South Korean authorities said on Friday that Iranian attacks ‌on Qatar’s energy facilities raise uncertainty, but downplayed concerns about disruption to its liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, citing the availability of alternative sources. – Reuters

Chinese and South Korean officials meeting in Beijing vowed to jointly maintain ​supply chain stability and deepen trade ties, official statements ‌showed on Thursday, as bilateral relations warm amid geopolitical shocks from the Iran War and U.S. trade policies. – Reuters

South Asia

French President Emmanuel Macron ​and Indian Prime Minister ‌Narendra Modi discussed on Thursday the need ​to reduce ​tensions in the Middle East, ⁠they said ​on their respective X ​accounts, after Iran attacked energy infrastructure in the region ​following Israeli and ​U.S. attacks. – Reuters

India, a leading importer ​of fertilisers, is in talks to increase purchases from Russia, Belarus and Morocco as Middle East tensions and ‌China’s export curbs risk tightening supplies ahead of the summer planting season, government and industry sources said. – Reuters

India’s trade ministry has recommended imposing anti-dumping ​duties on imports of a key industrial ‌chemical from China after an investigation found that low-priced shipments were hurting domestic producers. – Reuters

Nepal is investigating how some copies of a book authored by Chinese President Xi ​Jinping were burned at a university in the ‌east of the country after the Chinese embassy expressed concern over the incident, officials said on Thursday. – Reuters

Brahma Chellaney writes: There are few precedents for communists’ electoral downfall. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, several Eastern European countries saw communist successor parties win and then later lose power within democratic systems. Outside the former Soviet bloc, however, such examples are rare. Nepal now joins that small historical category. Voters have repudiated a political order that had come to dominate public life. The result was less a defeat of Karl Marx than a rejection of the status quo — delivered decisively and peacefully at the ballot box. – The Hill

Europe

Europe’s top central bankers warned that the escalating war in the Middle East would drive up inflation and knock growth. The conflict is threatening the global economy, but Europe is seen as particularly vulnerable because of its dependence on imported energy. – Wall Street Journal

European Union leaders called for a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East as the bloc grapples with the fallout, including volatile energy prices and blocked trade routes. – Wall Street Journal

A small team of British military planners has been sent to the United States to help draw up options to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a British official said on Thursday, as Iranian retaliatory attacks disrupt global shipping and drive up energy prices. – New York Times

To hear Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of Spain tell it, Spaniards enjoy an enviable degree of immunity from the high oil and gas prices caused by the war in Iran. – New York Times

The United States on Thursday lifted sanctions on three Belarusian companies that produce a crucial ingredient in fertilizer, a major concession as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran causes fertilizer prices to skyrocket and threatens farmers’ bottom lines. – New York Times

At the height of an election campaign in the German state of Baden-Württemberg last month, candidates from the area’s main political parties gathered for a televised debate. One of them came from a far-right party, the Alternative for Germany, or AfD. – New York Times

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday told ​Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin ‌Hamad al-Thani Britain would continue to stand with Qatar and its gulf ​allies, during a call between ​the two following Iranian attacks ⁠on Qatar’s gas infrastructure. – Reuters

European airline chiefs warned on Thursday that a prolonged conflict ​in the Middle East would lead to higher air fares as flight cancellations drive up costs and aviation fuel prices, with some carriers ‌even flagging risks to jet fuel supplies. – Reuters

The European Union pitched ​to Turkey last month the idea that the candidate for bloc membership could join ‌a cost-cutting payments system to boost integration efforts and benefit those sending money abroad, the EU envoy to Ankara told Reuters. – Reuters

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko freed 250 prisoners on Thursday – ​the biggest batch to be released so far – in return for a further easing of U.S. sanctions, the U.S. embassy in neighbouring ‌Lithuania said. – Reuters

Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform UK party, said on Thursday he would ban mass Muslim prayer at historic British sites if elected as prime minister, ​describing an event this week in London as an attempt to “overtake, intimidate and dominate”. – Reuters

Britain said on Thursday it would scale back international aid funding across much ‌of Africa and prioritise countries affected by conflict, highlighting the impact of last year’s decision to cut development spending and use the money on defence instead. – Reuters

Slovenia holds a parliamentary election on Sunday in which ​liberal Prime Minister Robert Golob will face off against pro-Donald Trump populist Janez Jansa after a combative campaign ‌marred by accusations of foreign meddling and government graft. – Reuters

A forthcoming Italian referendum on judicial reform will test right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s political strength and could give the ​fragmented opposition the impetus to forge a broad alliance ahead of next year’s general election. – Reuters

There are alternatives to overcome Hungary’s veto on ​a 90 billion euro ($103 billion) ‌loan to Ukraine but they will need political courage from European leaders, ​EU foreign policy chief ​Kaja Kallas said on Thursday. – Reuters

The German government has set a mid-April deadline for reaching an agreement with France on ​the crisis-hit FCAS fighter programme, a government official said on Thursday. – Reuters

The Organization for ‌Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), a 57-nation east-west body comprising former Cold War foes, agreed on a budget on Thursday for the first time in five years, with heavy cuts demanded ​by the United States. – Reuters

European leaders have demanded the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a moratorium on strikes on water and energy infrastructure in the Middle East as they met in Brussels to grapple with rising energy prices caused by the war. – Associated Press

European Union leaders on Thursday lashed out at Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, accusing him of hijacking critical aid for Ukraine and undermining EU decision-making in an effort to win an election at home. – Associated Press

Tens of thousands of Moldovans have been left without water after a Russian strike on a hydroelectric plant in neighboring Ukraine resulted in oil polluting a major river that flows through both countries. – Associated Press

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said US President Donald Trump still wants to acquire Greenland, after a report revealed the extent of Copenhagen’s preparations earlier this year to militarily counter a potential US attack. – Bloomberg

Romania’s ruling coalition reached an agreement in budget negotiations after the dominant Social Democrats won concessions for parts of a spending package that had stalled the talks. – Bloomberg

Mark Rutte’s tried-and-tested approach to dealing with Donald Trump is coming under strain as the U.S. president’s war in Iran opens up fresh fault lines inside NATO. – Politico

Eugene Kontorovich writes: Putting Spain on the Treasury’s list of boycotters signals that the administration’s problem is the actions of the Sánchez government, not Spain itself. If conservatives come to power in the elections next year and drop the boycott (or if Mr. Sánchez does so), Spain could quickly come off the list, as the United Arab Emirates did when it joined the Abraham Accords. The Trump administration may want to level additional economic sanctions against Madrid. U.S. boycott laws have the advantage of being easy to implement, intrinsically tied to Spain’s undermining the defense of America and its allies, and based on legislation with a history of bipartisan support. – Wall Street Journal

Niccolò Comini writes: But the realities of European politics might call for a broader membership. A future ESC could see rotating regional seats. With a representative country from each region (Western, Mediterranean, Eastern, Baltic, Nordic, etc.), there are fewer voices than the whole bloc, but nonetheless varying perspectives. There is no silver bullet to fixing Europe’s hesitancy to engage with a more dangerous and unpredictable world, but something must change. Europe cannot keep getting caught deliberating while the rest of the world steams ahead. More fights will break out at the bar. The question is whether Europe is prepared for the next dust-up, or is once again an indecisive bystander. – Center for European Policy Analysis

The Americas

A Russian tanker full of oil is moving through the Atlantic Ocean and drawing scrutiny to see if it is heading to Cuba, a potential test of the U.S. oil blockade of the island, according to shipping data and industry analysts. – New York Times

Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino on Thursday said accusations by a local unit of ​Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison over setbacks in an arbitration ‌process for disputed port contracts were “outrageous” and “a lie.” – Reuters

The ‌accused Mexican drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero is in talks with U.S. prosecutors over a potential plea agreement, his lawyer said in court on Thursday. – Reuters

At least 11 ​suspected criminals were killed in northern ‌Mexico during a security operation targeting a residence tied to the Los Mayos faction of the ​country’s powerful Sinaloa cartel, the country’s ​navy said on Thursday. – Reuters

The U.S. military is not rehearsing for an invasion of Cuba or actively preparing to militarily take over the island, ​the top general overseeing American forces in Latin America told lawmakers on Thursday. – Reuters

Mexico has invited Spain’s ​King Felipe VI to attend the World Cup opening ‌match, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday, marking a thawing in relations after she did not invite him to her inauguration ceremony. – Reuters

Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad confirmed on Thursday he is ‌going to run for governor of Sao Paulo, giving President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva a key ally on the campaign trail this year in the country’s most populous state. – Reuters

Removing Miguel Diaz-Canel as president of Cuba to appease the US is out of the question, the country’s ambassador to the United Nations said, adding that talks between the two countries should be based on “mutual respect.” – Bloomberg

Canada will buy as many as 65,000 assault rifles to replenish its aging arsenal in a deal with Colt Canada Corp., the latest in a military spending bonanza as the country re-arms. – Bloomberg

Editorial: The goal would be working toward a restoration of the rule of law and a democratic process to elect a legitimate government. Only then can the U.S. provide humanitarian relief and only then will investors take a risk on Cuba. Until then the U.S. will have to keep pressure on the regime. Bringing freedom to Cuba would be an historic Trump accomplishment, a victory for human freedom, and a boon to U.S. interests in the Americas. – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

Three people associated with artificial intelligence server maker Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI.O), including its co-founder, were ​charged with helping smuggle at least $2.5 billion of U.S. AI technology to China in violation of export laws, the U.S. Justice Department said on Thursday. – Reuters

The U.S. Justice Department on Thursday said it took part in an operation with ​Germany and Canada to take down infrastructure used by ‌four major botnets that infected more than 3 million devices worldwide, including hundreds of thousands in the U.S. – Reuters

Office workers toiling with blocked internet. Teenagers continually forced to switch VPNs. Taxi drivers struggling to find their way around Moscow without online navigation. The Kremlin is flexing its muscles over the internet. – Reuters

Federal cyber officials aren’t seeing a significant change in attacks tied to Iran since the conflict there began, at least not yet, but they are on the lookout for any uptick and are focusing on the Stryker attack in particular. – Cyberscoop

A Russian state-backed hacker group has targeted a Ukrainian government agency using a stealthy phishing campaign that exploits a vulnerability in widely used Zimbra webmail software, according to new research. – The Record

U.S. intelligence leaders on Thursday presented a united public front in favor of extending a key national security surveillance power without changes, providing momentum to backers of such an approach before a crucial week in Congress. – The Record

The United States Department of Justice announced today the court-authorized seizure of four websites operated by Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security, dismantling a regime-run cyber and psychological operations network that issued a $250,000 bounty death threat against former Ontario Member of Provincial Parliament Goldie Ghamari, which directed the Jalisco New Generation Cartel to behead her at her Ottawa home. – The Bureau