Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Spain permanently withdraws ambassador as rift with Israel deepens Former JPost editor-in-chief Yaakov Katz and JPPI senior fellow Gil Troy: Khamenei cemented the U.S.-Israel alliance Escalating Hormuz crisis raises specter of prolonged closure Ending Iran war quickly carries big risks for the U.S. and allies Pentagon tells Congress first week of Iran war cost more than $11.3 billion Russia lures recruits from Africa to feed its Ukraine war machine AEI fellow Marc A. Thiessen: What is the definition of victory in Iran? There are three. Drone strikes near Dubai airport deepen Gulf aviation chaos Taiwan parties agree government can sign stalled agreements on U.S. arms deals Romania allows 'defensive' US refuelling, monitoring for Iran operations at its air bases U.S. seeks extradition of Maduro ally pardoned by Biden FBI said to warn California that Iran could launch drones from boat at West CoastIn The News
Israel
Gaza’s 2 million citizens are accustomed to waiting for a world that has other things on its mind. But the attacks on Iran have led to a particularly cruel reprise of that script, closing the doors for now on perhaps the closest thing to progress Gaza had experienced in years. – Washington Post
Israeli officials in closed discussions have acknowledged there is no certainty the war against Iran will lead to a collapse of its clerical government, a senior Israeli official told Reuters, with no sign of an Iranian uprising amid the bombardment. – Reuters
Spain permanently withdrew its ambassador to Israel on Tuesday as a diplomatic standoff worsened between the two countries over Spain’s opposition to the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. – Reuters
The IDF said it struck dozens of Iranian regime infrastructure sites in Tehran and western Iran on Wednesday, and then launched an “extensive” wave of airstrikes on regime targets in the capital overnight, as US President Donald Trump said he didn’t want to end the war “too early.” – Agence France-Presse
As part of Operation Roaring Lion, the Israel Navy has in recent days reinforced the forces deployed along Israel’s coastlines in the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea, adding more than a thousand additional fighters. – Jerusalem Post
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir on Wednesday ordered significant reinforcements to the North, indicating that Ground Forces involvement in Lebanon might escalate. – Jerusalem Post
Yaakov Katz and Gil Troy writes: For the first time, the Israeli and American militaries are fighting the same war, in the same battle space, at the same time. Israel is acting not as a junior ally but a well-supplied, reliable partner. The irony is that no one did more to build this alliance than Khamenei, the man who spent decades trying to destroy it. He sought to isolate Israel and weaken American influence in the Middle East. Instead, he achieved the opposite. He created the conditions for the most powerful military alliance the region has ever seen. – Wall Street Journal
W.J. Hennigan writes: Mr. Trump saw his dream scenario play out in Venezuela when U.S. forces captured and removed Nicolás Maduro from power and a more pliable insider, Delcy Rodriguez, took over. He told Axios last week he’d like to see a replay of that in Tehran. “I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy in Venezuela,” Mr. Trump said. Iran has other plans. It has since named Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the recently killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader. There are no immediate indications he’s willing to acquiesce to the United States. So, the bombing continues. Two nations started this war together. It’s hard to see how they can join forces to end it. – New York Times
Sherwin Pomerantz writes: Those words are as true today as they were 85 years ago when they were first uttered. At the time, they applied to a world at war, but substitute “Israel” for “world,” and our challenge then becomes crystal clear. We need a “time out” to be able to move forward in unity and thereby secure our future as a country in the face of today’s uncertain world. It is nothing less than a national imperative, and we must not fail in this effort. – Jerusalem Post
Amine Ayoub writes: The Israeli war cabinet and American defense establishment cannot afford to revert to the status quo ante. Striking the financial jugular of the Iranian proxy network is as vital as neutralizing its military commanders. Every day of delay allows Qatar to begin repairing its LNG empire and quietly reconstituting the illicit financial flows that sustain regional instability. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has inadvertently done the West a strategic favor by proving that Qatar is a vulnerable participant in Tehran’s axis, not a neutral broker. It is time to hit the funding, end the double game, and secure the region’s future. – Arutz Sheva
Noah Rothman writes: Contrary to some embarrassing rhetorical contortions in Washington, this is a real war, and real wars rarely go according to plan. This conflict is no exception. But the pessimistic assessments of the war encouraged by over-caffeinated observers on social media are unwarranted. Some perspective is in order, and that perspective would lead any honest spectator to conclude that the facts on the ground do not warrant the catastrophism that prevails among the groundlings on social media and within the press corps. – National Review
Iran
Escalating Iranian attacks and the U.S. government’s decision to hold off on military escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz are raising the prospect of a prolonged closure that would choke off exports through the world’s most important energy-transport route. – Wall Street Journal
U.S. officials said Wednesday that Iran had laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries 20% of the world’s oil exports from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War estimated that 10 mines had been laid, though President Trump cast doubt on such reports and encouraged shippers to traverse the strait. – Wall Street Journal
If Trump proclaims victory, stops the bombing and begins to withdraw the huge air and naval assets he assembled in the Middle East, it could soothe global markets, at least in the short term, and reassure American voters uneasy about the prospect of another forever war. But leaving in place Iran’s theocratic regime—angry, defiant and in possession of its nuclear stockpile and what remains of its arsenal of missiles and drones—would essentially grant Tehran control over the world’s energy markets. – Wall Street Journal
The International Energy Agency said its member countries would release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks, the largest reserves distribution in history, in a bid to bring down crude prices that have soared during the war with Iran. – Wall Street Journal
The Iranian elementary school building where scores of children were killed as the U.S. and Israel began their massive aerial campaign was on a U.S. target list and may have been mistaken for a military site, multiple people familiar with the strike told The Washington Post. – Washington Post
Two leading spatial intelligence companies say they are restricting access to satellite images of the Middle East in response to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Planet Labs and Vantor, which are based in the United States and have federal contracts, say they were not ordered by any government to restrict image access. The Pentagon declined to comment Wednesday. – Washington Post
The United Nations Security Council on Wednesday decisively adopted a Bahraini-led resolution condemning Iran’s regional attacks and rejected a Russian proposal seeking an end to the conflict in the Mideast. – New York Times
Pentagon officials told lawmakers in a closed-door briefing on Capitol Hill on Tuesday that they estimated the cost of the war against Iran had exceeded $11.3 billion in the first six days alone, according to three people familiar with the briefing. – New York Times
U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment, according to three sources familiar with the matter. – Reuters
Iran’s newly-appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was lightly injured but is continuing to operate, an Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday after state television described him as war wounded. – Reuters
Unrelenting Iranian attacks on shipping traffic and energy infrastructure pushed oil above $100 a barrel Thursday, as American and Israeli strikes pounded the Islamic Republic with no sign of an end to the war in sight. – Associated Press
Iran’s sports and youth minister said it’s “not possible” for the country to take part in the World Cup after the United States killed its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in its ongoing war. – Associated Press
Campaigners fear Iranian authorities are intent on launching a new crackdown on opponents even under wartime conditions, after the police chief threatened to shoot protesters and treat them as enemies. – Agence France-Presse
Iranian protesters will be treated as enemies if they support Tehran’s foes, the country’s top police officer warned on Tuesday, as the war sparked fears in the regime that mass anti-government rallies could reignite. – Agence France-Presse
Thousands of people in Tehran defied ongoing bombardments on Wednesday to publicly mourn commanders killed by US-Israeli strikes, in the largest gathering since the start of the war. – Agence France-Presse
Iran has told regional intermediaries that for a ceasefire, the US must guarantee that neither it nor Israel will strike the country in the future, according to several officials familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg
Several Iranian regime security personnel and Basij militia members were killed in a series of Israeli drone strikes on Tehran, according to a report from Iran International citing Iranian state media on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
Head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC-N) Alireza Tangsiri warned that vessels must obtain permission from the Islamic Republic before passing through the Strait of Hormuz, pro- and anti-regime outlets reported on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
Marc A. Thiessen writes: By disarming Iran, Trump is already doing more for Middle East peace than has any other president in the modern era. But if he stays the course, he can decisively defeat the regime and replace its totalitarian theocracy with a new government answerable to Washington — or, better yet, its own citizens. History, and the American people, will reward him for doing so. – Washington Post
Afshon Ostovar writes: But prudence has never been one of the Islamic Republic’s traits. Time and again, the theocratic regime has proved that its aim is to advance its narrow ideological agenda, not help the Iranian people. Rather than compromise, it has impoverished the country, killed thousands of its own citizens, and picked fights with far stronger militaries. It is unlikely that the regime will carry out substantive change if it survives this campaign. Instead, the remaining, aggrieved cadre at the helm might lead Iran down an even darker path. – Foreign Affairs
Russia and Ukraine
Diop is one of thousands of non-Russians, many from Africa, fighting Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Some were attracted by the pay that recruiters offered, but many fell for what amounted to a lethal scam. Promised employment or schooling, they were instead fed into the meat-grinder battlefields of a war now in its fifth year. – Wall Street Journal
Since the first missiles of the U.S.-Israeli campaign began striking Iran, Russian state media and political pundits have been mulling over a question: Do negotiations with the United States always end with missiles hitting the capital? – Washington Post
The Russian government is preparing a possible 10% cut to all “non-sensitive” spending in this year’s budget, sources told Reuters, but the final decision will hinge on the sustainability of the oil price rise triggered by the Iran war. – Reuters
The Kremlin on Wednesday accused British specialists of involvement in a deadly Ukrainian strike on the Russian city of Bryansk that used British Storm Shadow missiles and said it would take Britain’s role “into account”. – Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev said he discussed the crisis in global energy markets at talks with US officials in Florida. – Bloomberg
The war with Iran is sucking up expensive U.S. air defense munitions that Ukraine desperately needs, putting future deliveries at risk and threatening Kyiv’s ability to counter Russian ballistic missile attacks. – Politico
Hungary said a government “delegation” crossed into Ukraine on Wednesday in a bid to find out more about damage to a major pipeline that has knocked out its supplies of Russian oil — a mission Kyiv says has no official status. – Politico
Noam Raydan and Anna Borshchevskaya write: The Trump administration’s flexibility toward a major ally and oil purchaser like India is understandable, but this flexibility should be limited in time and scope. To prevent Moscow from cashing in on the Iran war, Washington should maintain its sanctions on Russian oil, make sure that the India waiver is not extended beyond thirty days, and avoid issuing such waivers to other countries. Of course, these considerations will ultimately depend on the trajectory of the war, Iran’s willingness to escalate further in the maritime domain, and the degree to which Hormuz tanker traffic remains disrupted. – Washington Institute
Hezbollah
The Israeli military unleashed a wave of heavy strikes on Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, and its southern outskirts late on Wednesday and early Thursday, the latest in a bombing campaign that Lebanese officials said has driven 800,000 people from their homes. – New York Times
As Hezbollah enters a new round of fighting with Israel just 15 months after the last Israel-Hezbollah war ended with a November 2024 U.S.-brokered ceasefire, the Iran-backed militant group and political party is facing increasing grassroots discontent within its base and problems with the Lebanese authorities. – Associated Press
The Thursday morning attacks came on the heels of a coordinated overnight barrage of Iranian ballistic missile and Hezbollah rocket fire that set off sirens in central and northern Israel, the Jerusalem area and parts of the south. – JNS
Rami Na’im writes: The U.S. Congress should target the financing networks that keep Hezbollah operational even in its weakened state. And the Trump administration should recognize that ordinary Lebanese—hotel owners, families, small-business owners—are furious that Hezbollah has dragged their country into a war that isn’t theirs. In churches across Lebanon, prayers for peace increasingly carry another plea: that Lebanon not be used as a battlefield for other nations’ strategies. That armed groups not outrank elected institutions. That families not be forced to choose between staying and surviving. – Wall Street Journal
Charbel A. Antoun writes: A U.S.-led strategy that treats Hezbollah not only as a terrorist organization but as a transnational criminal organization — and as an arm of the Iranian state — is the only path to restoring Lebanese sovereignty. Until then, Nassar’s arrest request is noise, not transformation. Lebanon deserves more than gestures. It deserves a state capable of defending its borders, its institutions, and its future. And that requires dismantling the empire that sustains Hezbollah’s power — not applauding symbolic decrees that leave its foundations untouched. – The Hill
Iraq
Iran appeared to have set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters as it stepped up attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, warning the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel in defiance of President Donald Trump’s claim that the U.S. had already won the war. – Reuters
Iraq has asked the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) if it would pump at least 100,000 barrels of crude per day from its state-managed Kirkuk oilfields to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, two oil officials familiar with the matter told Reuters. – Reuters
An Italian military base in Iraqi Kurdistan was hit overnight by an airstrike though no injuries were reported, the Italian defence officials said on Thursday. – Reuters
Turkey
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that the war in Iran must be stopped before the whole Middle East region is “thrown into the fire”, adding that diplomacy must be given a chance. – Reuters
The trial of Istanbul’s jailed mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, is a purely political affair aimed at preventing him from challenging President Tayyip Erdogan in the next election, Turkey’s main opposition leader told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday. – Reuters
Turkey’s cycle of interest-rate cuts will likely end on Thursday as a war-driven spike in global energy prices threatens to reignite the country’s inflation woes. All but one of the 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expects the central bank to hold the one-week repo rate at 37% after five consecutive cuts dating back to July. – Bloomberg
Gulf States
Naval drones have been used in at least two attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf region since war erupted between the U.S., Israel and Iran, according to maritime authorities and analysts, demonstrating a dangerous new threat in the key shipping lane. – Reuters
The U.S. may have pulled the trigger on the Iran war, but it is the oil-producing Gulf that will pay the price, Gulf sources and analysts say, signalling unease in ties between a region under Iranian attack and the superpower it relies on for protection. – Reuters
Oman’s civil defence is working on containing a fire in fuel tanks at the country’s Salalah port, Oman’s state news agency reported on Wednesday, after drones struck oil storage facilities at the port. – Reuters
Two drones fell near Dubai’s main airport and Bahrain evacuated some planes on Wednesday, as attacks on infrastructure across the Gulf continued to disrupt air traffic, hampering efforts to restore flights as the war on Iran entered a 12th day. – Reuters
Middle East & North Africa
The United Nations aid chief warned on Wednesday that the conflict in the Middle East is straining humanitarian operations worldwide, disrupting supply chains and slowing the delivery of life‑saving assistance to numerous crisis zones. – Reuters
France will provide 60 metric tons of humanitarian aid for Lebanon, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Wednesday. – Reuters
At least 25 Iranian attacks have targeted US sites or locations housing American military personnel in the Middle East since the start of the war, according to an AFP analysis. – Agence France-Presse
Korean Peninsula
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung held summit talks on Wednesday with Ghanaian President John Mahama, agreeing to deepen cooperation in climate, digital innovation and maritime security. – Reuters
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has ordered tough disciplinary action against officials responsible for delays in recovering the remains of victims from the 2024 Jeju Air crash that killed 179 people, his office said Thursday. – Reuters
The first passenger train service between China and North Korea after a six-year hiatus is scheduled to set off from Beijing on Thursday, part of a series of moves by China to shore up cross-border infrastructure and rebuild bilateral ties. – Reuters
South Korean lawmakers on Thursday passed a law to implement a pledge of $350 billion in U.S. investments Seoul made last year to avoid the Trump administration’s highest tariffs. – Associated Press
South Korea’s president said this week that some U.S. air defense systems stationed on the Korean peninsula could be deployed overseas as the United States’ war with Iran intensifies, a move that highlights how the ongoing conflict could force Washington to shift scarce missile defense assets across regions. – Defense News
China
Chinese leader Xi Jinping enshrined in law his vision for a powerful China united around a single national identity, the culmination of a long-running campaign to assimilate the country’s ethnic minorities. – Wall Street Journal
A U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace on Wednesday, in a move the U.S. 7th Fleet said “demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.” – Reuters
While much of the world’s attention is on the Iran war, that hasn’t stopped China from moving ahead with national priorities with global repercussions. Not that China doesn’t care about the war and its impact on energy supplies and geopolitics. But for the world’s second largest economy, its growing rivalry with the United States revolves around a different battle: the development of the cutting-edge technologies shaping the 21st century. – Associated Press
Beijing’s naval forces received two new Type 055-class guided missile destroyers and have tasked them to operate under the command responsible for any potential operation against Taiwan, according to recent Chinese state media reports. – USNI News
South Asia
A Sri Lankan court has ordered that the bodies of 84 sailors killed in an attack on an Iranian warship off the island nation’s coast last week be handed over to the embassy of Iran, local media reported on Wednesday. – Reuters
The State Department will permanently close the U.S. consulate in Peshawar, Pakistan, which has been America’s closest diplomatic mission to the Afghan border and was a primary operations and logistics point before, during and after the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. – Associated Press
Sadanand Dhume writes: India imports the vast majority of its liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas. More than 80% of India’s LPG imports and more than half its LNG imports come from the Gulf. India’s cold shoulder to Iran highlights the hollowness of Brics. The bloc lets diplomats rack up frequent flyer miles, and politicians pose for pictures with other leaders. But on the world stage it counts for next to nothing. – Wall Street Journal
Asia
Taiwan’s three main political parties agreed on Thursday to authorise its government to sign U.S. agreements for four arms sales packages, after officials warned that Taipei would go to the back of the line if it missed the deadline. – Reuters
Australia has closed its embassies in Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv as well as its consulate in Dubai, the foreign minister said on Wednesday, amid fears the conflict in the Middle East could intensify. – Reuters
Indonesia and Australia are planning to expand their security cooperation to include Japan and Papua New Guinea, Jakarta’s Defence Minister said on Thursday after a meeting with his Australian counterpart. – Reuters
Australian police have recovered two bodies during a search for two Chinese backpackers who went missing in a flood-hit region in the country’s east, local media reported on Thursday. – Reuters
An Indonesian parliamentary panel on Wednesday voted to retain both the interim head of the Financial Services Authority and its acting chief capital market supervisor in a permanent capacity, to enable them to deliver on promised market reforms. – Reuters
Thailand’s new parliament will hold its opening ceremony on March 14 following last month’s election, a Royal Gazette announcement said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Thailand denounced the attack on a Thai-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and summoned Iran’s ambassador, as authorities race to rescue three crew members feared trapped aboard the damaged ship. – Bloomberg
Editorial: To Lam, a former general who headed the security services, is betting he can unleash private enterprise and reap the benefits of free markets without giving anything else away. He’s not the first dictator to try this, and outcomes have varied. Yet it’s telling that he knows his country has no other alternative if it wants to keep growing. – Washington Post
Europe
Returning to Russian fossil fuels in the wake of the Iran war would be a “strategic blunder,” said Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, as Europe continues to grapple with volatile oil prices. – Wall Street Journal
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Wednesday delivered her strongest criticism yet of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, describing it as part of a growing and dangerous trend of interventions “outside the scope of international law”. – Reuters
Romania will host U.S. refuelling planes, surveillance and satellite communications gear for its Tehran operations, President Nicusor Dan said on Wednesday, adding the equipment was “defensive” and carries no munitions. – Reuters
British police have banned a pro-Iranian march that had been due to take place in London on Sunday, citing the possibility of “extreme tensions” with counter-protesters and the risk posed by Tehran during the Iran war. – Reuters
Prime Minister Keir Starmer was warned of risks in making Peter Mandelson Britain’s ambassador to Washington, documents released on Wednesday showed, reviving questions about his judgment in appointing a man close to Jeffrey Epstein. – Reuters
Norwegian police said on Wednesday they had apprehended three brothers suspected of carrying out Sunday’s bombing at the U.S. embassy in Oslo, in an attack investigators have branded an act of terrorism. – Reuters
The main Hungarian opposition party Tisza’s lead over long-time Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz shrank slightly in a poll published on Wednesday, as campaigning enters its final month before an April 12 election. – Reuters
European countries are gearing up to approve the release of 400 million barrels of oil to offset soaring energy costs and supply fears as war rages in Iran. – Politico
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres will attend a lunch with EU leaders during a gathering in Brussels on Mar. 19, according to two EU diplomats, as some countries call for a stronger defense of international law from the bloc. – Politico
A top Trump administration official has reassured Brussels that Washington remains committed to its trade deal with the European Union, amid mounting fears in Europe and the U.S. that the agreement could unravel. – Politico
Liam Denning writes: As ever, Finland must hedge its bets with a strong dose of self-reliance — this time backed by a wider set of European countries growing more willing to do the same. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year, a gathering overshadowed by Trump’s threats against Greenland, Stubb said that “Europe needs to use this moment.” That means not just rebuilding the continent’s military independence but rejuvenating its sinews of industrial capacity and, even harder, the common purpose underpinning them. On this, Finland can teach much, but it urgently needs more keen and motivated students. – Bloomberg
Africa
Perhaps Maj. Gen. Abou Issa should have realized he was facing a coup d’état when a junior soldier punched him in the mouth. The soldier belonged to an emergency unit dispatched to Issa’s house to rescue him from a dark-of-night attack by masked gunmen. Instead of saving the general, half-a-dozen soldiers clubbed him into bloody unconsciousness with their rifle butts. – Wall Street Journal
A drone strike in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on a house used by international relief staff killed a French aid worker Wednesday morning. Two other people were also killed, according to the rebel group M23. Their names, and the full count of those killed and injured, could not be verified immediately. – Washington Post
South Africa’s government called in the new U.S. ambassador to the country to explain himself over “undiplomatic remarks,” foreign affairs minister Ronald Lamola said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Gabon has formally requested a programme from the International Monetary Fund, a move that could help stabilise the Central African OPEC member’s finances and strengthen transparency, a spokesperson for the Fund told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters
Nigeria’s government is monitoring escalating tensions in the Middle East as it assesses potential risks to the country’s economic stability, the finance ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Denis Sassou Nguesso, the 82-year-old president of Republic of Congo, is seeking another five-year term in an election on March 15, aiming to extend his more than four decades in office in the oil-rich Central African nation. – Reuters
The European Union’s financial support for Rwandan troops helping to fight an Islamic State-linked insurgency in Mozambique expires in May and there are no plans to extend it, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg
Thomas Kent writes: Inside Russia, private firms reportedly have begun searching online for foreigners who are “prospective candidates for work in Russia”—including those “with military experience or who wish to receive it.” The news outlet Important Stories reported that some of the firms’ income comes from Russian companies under pressure to send employees to the front lines. The companies can satisfy that obligation if they find foreigners to take their place. All this marks a significant change. Over the past four years, African nations have generally kept a low public profile in the conflict, seeking not to take sides. The deaths and deceptions of their citizens, however, have reached the point that they cannot remain silent. – The National Interest
The Americas
The United States is negotiating the extradition of a billionaire businessman linked to Nicolás Maduro, the detained Venezuelan president, according to seven Venezuelans and Americans familiar with the matter. – New York Times
Jose Antonio Kast was sworn in as Chile’s president on Wednesday, ushering in the country’s sharpest shift to the right in decades as voters, alarmed by rising insecurity, backed a broader conservative turn sweeping parts of Latin America. – Reuters
Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodriguez said on Wednesday that she has appointed Paula Henao as oil minister, filling the key role as the country overhauls its oil industry amid U.S. pressure. – Reuters
The United States has opened its first Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) office in Ecuador, the U.S. Embassy in Quito said on Wednesday. – Reuters
An oil tanker seized by the United States for carrying Venezuelan oil is set to transfer the crude to a smaller vessel off the coast of Texas that can take it to shore, ship tracking data showed on Wednesday. – Reuters
North America
The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court on Wednesday to allow it to end a program shielding hundreds of thousands of Haitians from deportation. In a court filing, Solicitor General D. John Sauer asked the justices to block a lower court decision that found the Trump administration had violated the law when it terminated Temporary Protected Status, a program that allows some 350,000 Haitians to live and work legally in the United States. – New York Times
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Wednesday moved closer to a parliamentary majority that could help him counter U.S. tariffs when an opposition legislator joined the ruling Liberals. – Reuters
Guatemala’s opposition-controlled Congress elected new members to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) late Tuesday, part of a sweeping judicial overhaul that international observers warn risks being hijacked by corruption networks. – Reuters
Canada’s oil industry said on Wednesday there is little it can do to increase crude production in the short-term, even as the Canadian government sought ways to help global efforts to stabilize oil prices during the Iran war. – Reuters
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Wednesday that she will not be pursuing legal action against tech billionaire Elon Musk following his comment on X that alleged she was connected to drug cartels. – Reuters
Christopher Sabatini and Katrin Hansing write: That impulse came to a tragic end recently when a group of 10 people, including at least one U.S. citizen, was intercepted in Cuban waters, having set sail from Florida armed to the teeth in an apparent attempt to sow instability on the island. Other such efforts could force the United States’ hand to intervene militarily to defend the lives of Americans. There is still, at least for now, a window in which the world can defuse the consequences of Washington’s cruel and reckless adventurism. Onlookers, U.S. voters and especially Cuba’s long-suffering citizens can only hope. – New York Times
United States
When the Irish visit the White House each year, they traditionally bring a bowl of shamrocks. This year, they are bringing $6.1 billion in planned investments. – Wall Street Journal
The Trump administration said Wednesday the U.S. will release 172 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, its boldest attempt yet to bring down oil prices that have spiked since the U.S. launched its war against Iran. – Politico
The Federal Bureau of Investigation has reportedly warned police departments in California that Iran could retaliate for US attacks by launching drones at the West Coast. – Times of Israel
Editorial: These guys are clueless about the security and economic benefits of fossil fuels. They prefer that allies depend on Russia and the Middle East. Biden Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm floated a ban on crude exports in 2021, though wiser heads prevailed after Russia invaded Ukraine. The war in Iran is another reminder that U.S. oil and gas is a strategic asset. The left’s siren calls to unilaterally disarm would empower America’s adversaries. – Wall Street Journal
Josh Lipsky writes: Mr. Trump, however, operates from an older playbook—one in which tariffs, embargoes and the application of economic power were far more common. Almost two weeks into the biggest war of his presidency, he has appeared willing to use weapons that most in the West had forgotten. Expect to see more from the geoeconomic toolkit in coming weeks. – Wall Street Journal
Farah N. Jan writes: The lesson of 1914 is not that alliances cause wars. Alliances are a permanent feature of international politics, and most of the time they work. The lesson is that unconditional alliances cause wars that neither partner intended and neither can win. Germany’s blank check to Austria-Hungary produced a conflict that destroyed both empires. The United States has now issued its own, and the bill is coming due in American lives, American treasure, and a Middle East engulfed in a war that no one in Washington can explain how to end. – War on the Rocks
Cybersecurity
The Justice Department is investigating Iran’s use of Binance to evade U.S. sanctions. The probe follows the crypto exchange’s dismantling of an internal investigation into more than $1 billion that flowed through the platform to a network funding Iran-backed terror groups, according to company documents and people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal
An Iranian-linked hacking group on Wednesday claimed responsibility for a destructive cyberattack on U.S.-based medical device and services provider Stryker, according to messages posted to the group’s Telegram channel. – Reuters
South Korea’s senior presidential secretary for AI, Ha Jung-woo, said on Wednesday that artificial intelligence cooperation with the United Arab Emirates could accelerate after the Middle East conflict ends, given the UAE’s need to strengthen its defence capabilities. – Reuters
Two major Taiwanese technology companies crucial to the global consumer electronics and semiconductor supply chain said on Wednesday the conflict in the Middle East had not yet disrupted their operations, though one top executive expressed hopes for the war to end swiftly. – Reuters
Artificial intelligence systems that can generate sexualized deepfakes of real people would be banned in the EU under proposals seen by POLITICO. – Politico
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Wednesday unveiled a new government AI tool that will rank social media sites based on how much hate speech they host. – Politico
Albania’s parliament said late Tuesday that it had been targeted by a “sophisticated” cyberattack aimed at deleting data and compromising several internal systems. – The Record
Catherine Thorbecke writes: This oversight could genuinely harden OpenClaw over time. But it isn’t a magic spell. In a hype cycle, security is often added after the first scandal. More eyeballs can help fix lurking safety issues, but only if developers aren’t pressured to ship new apps as fast as possible. China is now running the world’s biggest real-world trial of AI agents, with ordinary people as the beta testers and their money and livelihoods on the line. The rest of the world should pay attention. Because in the rush to automate everything, China will be the first to show where this experiment snaps. – Bloomberg
Defense
As a senior U.S. military leader in the Middle East in recent years, Adm. Brad Cooper has had Shabbat dinner with Israel’s military leader Eyal Zamir. He has been hosted by Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the president of the U.A.E. And he has played basketball with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. – Wall Street Journal
As the Ukraine war has shown, drones equipped with thermal sensors have made the battlefield so hazardous that the best defense is not to be spotted at all. Thus, the U.S. Marine Corps is looking for camouflage cloaks that shield wearers from prying eyes and infrared cameras, according to a Marine Corps Systems Command Sources Sought notice. – Defense News
Roughly 140 American service members have been wounded — eight severely — in the first 10 days of Operation Epic Fury, the Pentagon confirmed Tuesday. – Military Times
The Defense Department and Intelligence Community are on the hunt for an “evaluation harness” to test vendors’ AI technologies for government use. – Cyberscoop
Sheldon H. Jacobson writes: Drones are positioned to provide benefits to the economy. The potential to harness them in new ways will create added value. Yet they also pose a significant national security risk. As much as the president’s “Beyond Visible Line of Sight” initiative will spur innovation and expanded uses for drones, these aerial vehicles are primed to be the platform for the next domestic terrorist attack — something to which our nation is ill-equipped to respond. – The Hill
David Petraeus and Isaac C. Flanagan writes: Autonomous systems are already extensively deployed in combat. A future in which they operate as fully fledged formations will soon be at hand. If Washington recognizes the shifts it must make now, autonomous formations will enable a new operational reality: coordinated and synchronized machine-tempo execution in which commanders delegate preprogrammed and carefully bounded algorithms to synchronize sensors and weapons into formations that maneuver independently while commanders retain responsibility for intent, limits, and accountability. If Washington fails to grasp the stakes, it will field increasingly capable unmanned systems (although likely in insufficient numbers) without any of the concepts, doctrine, organizations, and educated leaders needed to employ them effectively. It will have autonomous trinkets instead of autonomous warfare. And it will lose to adversaries who solve the command-design problem first. – Foreign Affairs