Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
War with Iran will end when Israel and US decide, Israeli foreign minister says Israel says Iran is using cluster munitions. What to know about the weapons Trump says the Iran war is nearly won but Israel has other ideas WSJ Editorial: The nuclear job in Iran isn’t finished NYT’s Bret Stephens: How does this end? Four scenarios for what comes next with Iran. As Iran war pushes up oil prices, Putin can barely conceal a smirk Exclusive: Hezbollah returns to guerrilla roots, awaits Israeli invasion Drone hits U.S. diplomatic facility in Iraq as Mideast violence deepens The world needs these two Middle East pipelines now more than ever North Korea supports Iran's choice of new supreme leader, KCNA says IEA proposes largest ever oil release from strategic reserves Pentagon says about 140 troops wounded, 8 severely, in war with IranIn The News
Israel
The war with Iran will continue until Israel and the U.S. determine the time is right to stop, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Tuesday, declining to give a timeline for when the conflict could end. – Reuters
Israel’s President Isaac Herzog on Tuesday did not offer a timetable on when the war with Iran could end, telling Germany’s Bild newspaper: “We need to take a deep breath and get to the end result.” – Reuters
Israel says Iran has been firing cluster munitions throughout their 10-day war — adding a complicated and deadly challenge to Israel’s already-stretched air defenses. The warheads burst open at high altitudes, scattering dozens of smaller bomblets across a wide area. The smaller bombs, which at night can resemble orange fireballs, are difficult to intercept and have proven lethal. – Associated Press
Donald Trump’s signature Board of Peace has run straight into the war in Iran, slowing what little progress it had made since the president — and a phalanx of world leaders — heralded its creation last month. – Politico
The Swedish research institute SIPRI, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, published its global arms export and import report on Monday, comparing the arms exports of various countries in the years 2016–2020 to 2021–2025. – Times of Israel
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul visited Israel and expressed support for Israel’s war in Iran, becoming the first foreign minister to visit the country since it launched its assault on Iran earlier this month. – Haaretz
Herb Keinon writes: If that moment arrives, Israel could face a difficult strategic dilemma. Does it halt its own operations in tandem with Washington, even if it believes the threat has not been sufficiently reduced? Or does it continue the fight without US participation, and potentially without US political cover? The events of June offered a preview. When Trump decided to halt the earlier round of strikes, he made clear that Israel was expected to follow suit. Should history repeat itself, Israel may once again find that the real ceiling on this war is set not by the risks posed by Iran’s remaining capabilities, but by Washington’s endurance. – Jerusalem Post
Leo Pearlman writes: Israel knows who its enemy is. For decades it has listened to the threats of those who openly promise its destruction and watched their proxies spread violence across the region. What is far less certain is whether the democratic world still recognises the same reality. Because this moment demands more than diplomatic caution or political convenience, it demands moral clarity. History has rarely judged kindly those who could not tell the difference between tyranny and those willing to confront it. The question is whether the West still remembers the difference. – Arutz Sheva
Iran
President Trump’s suggestions that the war with Iran might soon be over are bringing a new problem to the fore: Israel and the U.S. have different ideas on when to end the conflict and under what conditions. – Wall Street Journal
My mother’s uncle, Seyed Zia Tabatabai, was prime minister of Iran in 1921. By the time I understood this in the late ’90s, we were living in a suburb of Columbus, Ohio, and the fact carried the weight of a fairy tale. – Wall Street Journal
Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, showing it is in control of a strategic waterway that it has closed off to the rest of the region’s oil producers. – Wall Street Journal
The Iranian military is adjusting its tactics as the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign progresses, senior U.S. defense officials said, even as the Trump administration insists that the United States is winning the war. – New York Times
Three days after Mojtaba Khamenei was proclaimed to have succeeded his slain father as Iran’s supreme leader, he has not appeared on video or in public nor issued any written statements. – New York Times
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards forced through the choice of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader, seeing him as a more pliant version of his father who would back their hardline policies, bludgeoning aside the concerns of pragmatists, senior Iranian sources said. – Reuters
The U.S. Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war on Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high for now, according to sources familiar with the matter. – Reuters
Iran is fighting back but is not tougher than the U.S. military expected before the war, the top U.S. general told reporters on Tuesday, as the Pentagon promised its most intense day of strikes in the 10-day-old conflict. – Reuters
Four Iranian diplomats were killed in Lebanon on Sunday in an Israeli attack, Iranian state media said on Tuesday citing Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani. – Reuters
Iran has arrested dozens including a foreign national for allegedly spying for the country’s “enemies”, the Intelligence Ministry said on Tuesday, amid a continued war with the U.S. and Israel. – Reuters
A projectile hit a cargo ship Wednesday in the Strait of Hormuz, setting the vessel ablaze after the United States targeted Iranian minelaying vessels that could target the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center, run by the British military, said the vessel had been hit just north of Oman in the strait. – Associated Press
FIFA said Tuesday night that it anticipates Iran’s national team will be allowed to come to the United States, even with war going on between the countries, and compete in the World Cup that begins in about three months. Iran is scheduled to play in Inglewood, California, against New Zealand on June 15 and Belgium on June 21 before finishing group play against Egypt in Seattle on June 26. – Associated Press
The head of the Iranian Football Federation on Tuesday cast further doubt on his country’s participation in this summer’s World Cup, alleging that women playing in the Asian Cup in Australia had been coerced into defecting. – Agence France-Presse
Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi called on regional Muslims and countries to reveal the locations of US and Israeli military assets to enable Tehran to conduct more accurate attacks, the Iranian state-affiliated Defa Press reported on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
Iran’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani, claimed that the US and Israel had destroyed nearly 10,000 civilian sites since the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion, in a speech given during a media stakeout of the UN Security Council on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post
Editorial: While the June war reduced Iran’s nuclear program to odds and ends, together these could help the regime rebuild and pursue a bomb again. That’s what this campaign is supposed to prevent, and all the more so if Mr. Trump decides to stop short of regime change. For the U.S. and Israel, Pickaxe Mountain, the nuclear stockpile and Taleghan 2 are loose ends. They are another reason that calls for Mr. Trump to bow to $3.50 gasoline and end the war now are premature. Those who want to limit U.S. objectives in Iran should be the most vociferous about the need to strike or secure Iran’s top remaining nuclear sites. – Wall Street Journal
Warren Kozak writes: A 34-year-old New York real-estate developer saw Carter’s approach quite differently. In an interview in 1980, Donald Trump called the entire hostage episode a horror and said it was ridiculous that the U.S. allowed its people to be mistreated for so long. We don’t know if the hostages would have survived had the U.S. reacted forcefully in 1979, but tens of thousands of human beings would be alive today, and the entire Middle East wouldn’t have been destabilized for half a century, had the Iranian theocracy been stopped at the start. – Wall Street Journal
Bret Stephens writes: What, then, should the Trump administration do? My prescription: Seize Kharg Island. Mine or blockade Iran’s remaining ports. Destroy as much Iranian military capability as possible over the next week or two, including a second Midnight Hammer operation to destroy what’s left of Iran’s nuclear capacity and know-how. And threaten the regime with further bombing if it massacres its own citizens, mounts terrorist attacks abroad or returns to nuclear work. That constitutes the most realistic path to victory at the lowest plausible price in lives, risk and treasure. And for all its admitted dangers, it gives Iran’s people their best chance of winning their freedom. Not bad for a one-month war its critics warned would be another Iraq. – New York Times
James Jeffrey writes: But it does require an overall strategy agreed with regional partners and sustained high level diplomatic engagement to execute it. The recent high level security guarantees the U.S. gave to Qatar show how to firm up a peace. But Washington must intervene decisively when disputes break out amongst its allies and partners. It has done so between Turkey and Israel, but has not been active between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Yet any of these intra-allied frictions can risk overall stability. Washington should try harder. In the end, however, it is the friendly states of the region who must take to heart the lesson of 1919: if states prioritize their own particular advantage over alliance solidarity and regional stability, they will wind up losing everything. – Caravan
Michael C. Horowitz and Lauren A. Kahn write: The U.S. military cannot afford to wait until the 2030s for its stockpiles to be restored and increased. And the United States cannot afford these expensive systems in this new age of war. Firing a multimillion-dollar missile at a projectile that costs $35,000 is as unwise as it is unsustainable. LUCAS shows that there is another way. Just as Roosevelt recognized that World War II required mass production, so, too, must policymakers recognize that, in the age of precise mass, the U.S. military requires more than just exquisite capabilities. It needs drones, it needs them in droves, and it needs them now. – Foreign Affairs
Colin H. Kahl writes: Leaders in Moscow and Beijing are carefully watching the conflict unfold, not because they disapprove of eliminating adversaries—they don’t—but because American willingness to act unilaterally, outside traditional legal constraints, makes it dramatically harder for Washington to seize the normative high ground if and when Russia engages in further aggression against its neighbors or China moves to invade Taiwan. […] The U.S. troops executing these operations are serving with extraordinary professionalism, but that cannot substitute for clarity of purpose. The questions being asked too quietly right now are the ones that will ultimately determine whether this war is worth fighting. – Foreign Affairs
Emil Avdaliani writes: Azerbaijan also enjoys support from the EU as it relies on Caspian energy and values the South Caucasus country’s role as a deterrent to both Russia and Iran. Then there is Washington, with Trump’s personal interest in the realization of the TRIPP, as evidenced by J.D. Vance’s February trip to Yerevan and Baku. Iran clearly dislikes the way the cards have fallen, as it is signaled by lashing out. But a much bigger attack on Azerbaijan could spread a conflict to Turkey and beyond. It would be very unwise. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Kerry Boyd Anderson writes: But a civil war in Iran is a plausible scenario, and most of the likely outcomes would have negative consequences for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East and around the world. The war will affect the interests of many stakeholders, ranging from private sector companies to governments around the world. All these stakeholders should be thinking through worst-case scenarios now. U.S. policymakers might yet be able to take action now to avoid an incredibly destabilizing outcome. Policymakers from other countries and business leaders need to consider how to protect their interests and mitigate their risks, in case the worst comes to pass. – War on the Rocks
Russia and Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn’t been shy about gloating over the upside of the Iran conflict for Russia, as oil prices surge and the U.S. reevaluates its punitive measures on Russian crude. – Wall Street Journal
Down a stairway and behind an unmarked door, dozens of men toil in a vast basement workshop in Ukraine. Wearing headlamps, they lean over circuit boards as wisps of smoke rise from soldering irons. – New York Times
A U.N. investigation found on Tuesday that Russia’s deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children since Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022 amounted to crimes against humanity. – Reuters
Ukraine has sent air defence teams to Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to help them in their fight against Iran’s aerial attacks, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Russia has so far been the only winner from the war in the Middle East as energy prices soar and attention for its war against Ukraine has faded, EU Council President Antonio Costa said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Ukrainian forces struck a key plant producing missile components on Tuesday in Russia’s border region of Bryansk, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. – Reuters
The Russian-installed head of Ukraine’s Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin, told Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting shown on state TV on Tuesday that Ukraine controls around 15-17% of the region. – Reuters
Ukraine has launched a missile strike on the city of Bryansk in south-western Russia, causing casualties and injuries, regional governor Alexander Bogomaz said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Turkey was ready to host the next round of trilateral peace talks between Kyiv, Moscow and Washington, after speaking to President Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday. – Reuters
A Russian strike on the eastern Ukrainian frontline city of Sloviansk killed four people and injured 16 others, local governor Vadym Filashkin said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Ukraine’s war chest is less depleted than policymakers had feared and the country can sustain itself until early May, four people familiar with Kyiv’s finances told POLITICO. – Politico
Ukraine will get money from EU countries to fund its war effort even if Hungary and Slovakia continue to block a promised €90 billion loan, two EU diplomats told POLITICO. – Politico
Jeanne Shaheen writes: The administration is loosening sanctions and continuing negotiations with Russia as though Putin does not already have American blood on his hands. When Americans are targeted abroad, the United States must respond with clarity and resolve. Vladimir Putin has chosen to stand with and aid those attacking Americans. Recognizing that reality and responding to Putin is now the test facing this administration. – Washington Post
Greg Wilson writes: The reason this pending legislation is urgently needed is because it also contains a critical amendment to current law to permit Ukraine to use transferred Russian funds to buy “defense articles.” To date, the White House has blocked that legislation from being scheduled for a House vote despite overwhelming bipartisan support. The answer to “why now?” is simple. Ukraine has been successfully defending itself from Russia’s war machine for over four years. It has both military drone technology and battlefield expertise and experience that we desperately need to protect our troops and save lives as Trump’s Middle East war escalates. The president as commander in chief needs to act now to not only help Ukraine at no cost to U.S. taxpayers but also protect U.S. troops and civilians in the new Middle East war zone he created and now owns. – The Hill
Anatoly Motkin writes: While the war and regulatory hurdles represent risks, history shows innovations forged in high-stakes environments often yield the greatest rewards. Silicon Valley thrived on defense-driven urgency, and Ukraine’s blend of resilient engineers, combat-hardened tech, and supportive policies is creating a similar inflection point. For venture capitalists and private investors hunting future opportunities, engagement with Ukraine is simply unavoidable, as tomorrow’s industries are built. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Ethan Johnson writes: Importantly, understanding Russia’s yearning for ontological security does not require sympathizing with Putin or accepting his revisionist war aims. Rather, the framework elucidates how Putin evaluates loss, expected utility, and risk. Crafting a workable solution to the war will require improved situational awareness of Russia’s military capabilities and, just as importantly, the motivating intentions shaping its strategy. Until Washington understands that Putin wages a war of identity, it will continue to miscalculate Moscow’s behavior on the international stage. Regardless of its efforts to secure a ceasefire, Washington cannot bargain effectively with an adversary it does not understand. – National Interest
Syria
Syria’s defence ministry said on Tuesday that Sipan Hamo, commander of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), had been appointed deputy defence minister for the country’s eastern territories. – Reuters
A former member of Syria’s Air Force Intelligence attended a British court hearing via videolink on Tuesday charged with crimes against humanity and torture relating to the suppression of pro-democracy demonstrations in Damascus in 2011. – Reuters
David Schenker writes: While one can question Al Sharaa’s prioritization in targeting the SDF first, the Trump administration’s focus on rolling back militias in these states to encourage sovereignty and stability is sound policy. For much of recent memory, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq have represented a belt of instability stretching across the region. In Syria, militia opposition to integration is largely driven by concerns with the new Sunni Islamist-leaning government and its treatment of component minority communities. Washington can help the demobilization and integration process in Syria by holding the Al Sharaa government and its sometimes-undisciplined military forces to a high standard in its treatment of minorities. Human rights are not a priority in Washington these days, but unless communities feel secure, they will not put down their weapons. – Caravan
Iraq
The war in the Middle East is pushing the U.S. military back into combat in Iraq against an old foe—Iran-backed militia groups that two decades ago battled American troops on the streets of Baghdad. – Wall Street Journal
A drone assault hit a major U.S. diplomatic facility in Iraq on Tuesday in a suspected retaliation by pro-Tehran militias to the U.S. and Israel’s war on Iran, according to a security official and an internal U.S. alert reviewed by The Washington Post. – Washington Post
Iraq’s oil production has fallen to 1.2 million barrels a day because of the Iran war and Baghdad is pushing to restart export flows of its Kirkuk grade from the north of the country to help compensate. – Bloomberg
Lebanon
The Israeli military illegally used white phosphorus munitions over homes in the southern Lebanese town Yohmor on March 3, posing a threat to civilians, Human Rights Watch said in a report on Monday. – Reuters
Israeli strikes targeted an apartment building in central Beirut on Wednesday, Lebanese state media said, marking the second strike in the city in recent days. – Reuters
A German court on Tuesday jailed a 35-year-old man for supplying Iran-backed Lebanese terror group Hezbollah with equipment for drones. – Agence France-Presse
Hanin Ghaddar writes: Second, Lebanon is pushed to disarm Hezbollah, confront it without fear of a civil war that no one can afford, including the group itself, and avoid a more damaging war with Israel. In parallel, Lebanon is also directed to hold Hezbollah accountable and target its financial and political foundations, even if elections are to be postponed. With these conditions met, it would be vital to lock in a peace deal with Israel, which would not only sustain disarmament, but also secure investments and economic revival. Both the Lebanese and the Israeli people deserve some peace. – Caravan
Gulf States
Abu Dhabi state oil giant ADNOC has shut its Ruwais refinery in response to a fire at a facility within the complex following a drone strike, a source with knowledge of the situation said on Tuesday, marking the latest energy infrastructure disruption due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia’s oil shipments via the Red Sea are on course to hit record highs in March although they are still far below the levels needed to compensate for the drop in flows from the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data showed on Tuesday. – Reuters
Qatar wants to strengthen its defence partnership with the United States in the wake of Iranian air strikes on Qatari territory, the foreign ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday, even as it sees the existing deal as an important deterrent. – Reuters
UAE’s foreign ministry condemned a drone attack on its consulate in Iraqi Kurdistan’s Erbil, it said in a statement early on Tuesday. – Reuters
Qatar intercepted a missile targeting the country, the Gulf nation announced on Wednesday morning. The statement comes as Iran continues to target its neighboring countries and US assets in the region amid the ongoing US and Israeli campaign against the Islamic regime in Tehran. – Jerusalem Post
Andrea Felsted writes: If there’s a swift end to the Iran war, Dubai’s disruption may be short-lived, particularly if airlines and hotel operators are prepared to offer discounts to tempt customers back. Similarly, if Mexico stabilizes, and some good deals are available, American holiday makers could be more enthusiastic. History shows that even after safety-conscious tourists abandon a destination, as they did following the terrorist attacks in Paris in November 2015, they eventually return. But this year’s conflicts are not yet in the rearview mirror. Hotel operators and airlines are about to enter what are usually their most profitable months with many clouds in the summer sky. – Bloomberg
Middle East & North Africa
Two pipelines built just for the occasion—one in Saudi Arabia and one in the United Arab Emirates—bypass the Strait of Hormuz. They are the only ways to get a significant amount of oil out of the Persian Gulf into world markets. – Wall Street Journal
Since Zainab Ibrahim, 45, and her family arrived at a shelter in Beirut on March 2, she said, there has been no food for the traditional pre-dawn meal that precedes their daily fasts during Ramadan. – New York Times
Some airlines in Asia and Europe raised fares, added fuel surcharges or adjusted schedules on Tuesday as the Middle East conflict drove jet fuel costs sharply higher and disrupted key air routes. – Reuters
The U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran is piling pressure on Egypt’s precarious finances by hiking energy costs, hindering exports and pushing foreign investors to sell off treasuries, interviews with analysts and a review of official data show. – Reuters
Journalists covering the war in the Middle East are facing increasing restrictions and censorship imposed by governments and armed groups, with reporters being stopped and questioned or even detained, a survey of AFP bureau chiefs from the region showed. – Agence France-Presse
While the Iran war rages, Israel is quietly planning for a potential base at the mouth of the Red Sea from which to strike one of the Islamic Republic’s last proxies still operating at full strength: the Houthis of Yemen. – Bloomberg
Efraim Inbar writes: Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the failure of diplomacy to end that war, had already begun to shift Western thinking on this question. The failure of US diplomatic efforts to extract concessions from Iran, followed by the current military operation, accelerates that shift. The strikes on Iran have sharpened doubts about the reliability of its principal allies, China and Russia. Both have once again declined to intervene, leaving Iran to absorb the assault alone – raising serious questions about their value as strategic partners, particularly in the developing world. The United States, by contrast, stands firmly with Israel, signaling its continued engagement as an active global superpower. Washington’s ability to project military force to distant theaters without significant opposition demonstrates that the world is far less multipolar than many suppose. This should offer genuine reassurance to those who value freedom and tolerance. – Jerusalem Post
Niger Innis writes: Trump’s broader point has always been that American power should produce real outcomes: more security, more leverage, and a regional balance more favorable to US interests. That standard should apply here as well. The measure of success in Iran will not only be what the United States destroys but also what it secures. If the states that chose peace with Israel, partnership with the United States, and a future built on development and technology emerge stronger, then Trump’s strategy will have reinforced a regional order worth preserving. If they are left exposed, the gains will wither away. The UAE matters because it made the choice that Washington has long asked regional partners to make. If the Trump administration wants its Iran policy to be remembered as more than a tactical show of force, it should make clear that the states that build, integrate, and align with the United States will not stand alone. – National Interest
Korean Peninsula
North Korea said on Wednesday it supports the Iranian people’s choice of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who was named on Monday to succeed his father killed in the initial strikes against the country by the U.S. and Israel, state media said. – Reuters
South Korea’s transport ministry cut construction costs and approved improper airport safety structures for more than two decades, the state auditor said in a report on aviation safety management after a Jeju Air crash that killed 179 people. – Reuters
When Kim Jong Un arrived by armored train in Beijing for a military parade in September, the pageantry signaled a thaw in one of the world’s most important relationships after several years of frosty ties. – Reuters
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his teenage daughter observed tests of strategic cruise missiles fired from a warship, state media reported Wednesday, as North Korea threatened responses to U.S.-South Korean military drills. – Associated Press
China
The turmoil in the global energy market from war in the Middle East is exactly the sort of emergency scenario that China has long been preparing for. – Wall Street Journal
Senate Democrats argue in a new report that the Trump administration’s diplomatic and trade policies are weakening America’s advantage over China as the two countries compete to be the world’s leading economic and military power. – Washington Post
In the first two months of the year, before the outbreak of fighting in the Middle East paralyzed energy supply lines, China ramped up its oil purchases as part of a continued strategy to shield the country from rising geopolitical tensions. – New York Times
China stands ready to work with countries on a more inclusive nuclear governance and development, Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Chinese authorities and airlines have assisted over 10,000 Chinese citizens in returning from the Middle East, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday, after the war in the region forced airspace closures and grounded commercial flights. – Reuters
Editorial: In addition to its outpost in London, Hong Kong maintains HKETOs in New York City, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. The U.S. has allowed them to operate on the premise that Hong Kong enjoys significant autonomy from mainland China, but that hasn’t been true since Beijing consolidated control in 2020. Anna Kwok of the Washington-based Hong Kong Democracy Council, another bountied dissident, has warned that Beijing can use these diplomatic outposts to carry out transnational repression in the U.S. A bipartisan bill in Congress would give the Secretary of State authority to shut the HKETOs down, and this British case is another reason to pass it. – Wall Street Journal
Katherine C. Epstein writes: There is a cautionary tale here for the U.S. today as it squares off against China. The Pollen-Isherwood story provides a lesson about the danger of decadence for the reigning hegemon in the face of a rising challenger. In the Pollen-Isherwood computer, Britain had a world-leading home-grown technology in a crucial sector. But the Admiralty took its eye off the ball. Instead of focusing on getting the best technology to serve the national interest, it corrupted its acquisition process. By contrast, the U.S. Navy had no agenda other than excellence in support of the national interest. So there is precedent for the Pentagon’s behavior toward Anthropic. But it isn’t a precedent that bodes well for the U.S. in its competition with China over AI. – Wall Street Journal
Henry Tugendhat writes: Of course, none of this means that China will abandon Iran. And in the best-case scenario for Iran, Beijing might yet play a mediating role between Iran and its heretofore Arab targets. But there’s also no realistic scenario in which Beijing would ever take sides against its Arab partners. With friends like these, Iran’s regime may be wondering how it got here and how it might reshape this relationship if it survives these upheavals. But for now, it is forced to suffer the vulnerability of this dependence and take comfort in whatever limited support China bestows upon it. – Foreign Policy
South Asia
Airspace restrictions in the Middle East amid the Iran war have dealt another blow to Indian airlines, which count the region as a crucial corridor for flights to Europe and the U.S. since Pakistan banned Indian carriers from its airspace last year. – Reuters
Restaurants and hotels across India warned of disruptions and possible shutdowns on Tuesday, as the Iran war constricts supplies of cooking gas, prompting authorities to set up a panel to review industry requests. – Reuters
The Afghan Taliban on Tuesday called the U.S decision to designate Afghanistan a “state sponsor of wrongful detention” regrettable, and said it wanted to resolve the matter through dialogue after the U.S. demanded the release of U.S. citizens held. – Reuters
A second Iranian ship is currently nine nautical miles from Sri Lanka’s coast, a spokesperson for Sri Lanka’s cabinet said on Tuesday, adding that it would eventually be moved. – Reuters
India approved easing restrictions on Chinese investments in select sectors on Tuesday, in a major step by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to rebuild ties with Beijing and end six years of friction. – Reuters
Pakistan will come to the aid of Saudi Arabia whenever needed, the spokesperson for the country’s Prime Minister said, as Iran retaliates against US-Israeli strikes by hitting Gulf nations. – Bloomberg
Asia
Two more people affiliated with the Iranian women’s national soccer team have opted to remain in Australia, a day after five players were granted asylum in the country in the wake of an act of silent protest during an international tournament, Australian officials said Wednesday. – New York Times
Thailand’s new parliament will hold its opening ceremony on March 14 following last month’s election, a Royal Gazette announcement said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has ordered civil servants to conserve energy amid an energy squeeze brought on by the conflict in the Middle East, a government spokesperson said on Tuesday, with measures including suspending overseas trips and using stairs instead of elevators. – Reuters
Japan marked the 15th anniversary of the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster on its northeastern coast Wednesday as the government pushes for atomic energy use. – Associated Press
Japan plans to support a joint oil reserve release by members of the International Energy Agency as the war in Iran raises the risk of fallout for the economy via higher energy import prices and weaker global demand. – Bloomberg
Australia’s fiscal coffers are set to be boosted by higher liquefied natural gas and coal export prices fueled by the war in Iran, while households will be hit by surging gasoline costs, according to a research note from Bloomberg Economics. – Bloomberg
Europe
The International Energy Agency has proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history to bring down crude prices that have soared during the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, officials familiar with the matter said. – Wall Street Journal
Europe’s far right has surged. Now the far left is pushing back. Some voters are moving to the left, boosting parties that appeared moribund just a few years ago, polls and recent elections show. The center is now struggling to contain challenges from both the right and the left. – Wall Street Journal
A potential three-way merger between the space units of Airbus, Leonardo and Thales is facing pushback from some rivals that fear the deal could curtail competition in the European satellite market. – Wall Street Journal
On the fourth floor of the French foreign ministry in central Paris, some 20 Red Cross volunteers took calls on Monday afternoon from distressed French citizens who were stranded in the Middle East. – New York Times
Cypriot authorities have detained a suspected member of Palestinian militant group Hamas wanted in Germany for procuring weapons and ammunition for attacks on Israeli or Jewish facilities, German federal prosecutors said on Tuesday. – Reuters
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz underlined growing concern in Europe at the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran on Tuesday saying a “dangerous escalation” was underway with “clearly no joint plan” for bringing it to an end. – Reuters
London’s High Court refused permission on Tuesday for a legal challenge over Britain’s deal with Mauritius to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands, home to the U.S.-British Diego Garcia air base. – Reuters
Two Greenpeace activists broke onto the stage at the start of a global nuclear summit in France on Tuesday, interrupting President Emmanuel Macron and U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi as they were greeting heads of state. – Reuters
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has ordered that a shipment of Ukrainian cash and gold seized last week by Hungarian authorities be held in custody for up to 60 days while his country’s tax authority investigates the case. – Associated Press
Pope Leo XIV called Monday for an end to the U.S.-Israel war in Iran, issuing a new but still muted appeal as two of his U.S. cardinals condemned the war, rejected the rationale for launching it and the “video game” way it was being portrayed. – Associated Press
A bus caught fire in a town west of the Swiss capital killing at least six people and severely injuring three others, police said Tuesday. Police spokesperson Frederic Papaux of Fribourg canton, or region, said an unspecified “voluntary act” could have caused the fire Tuesday evening in the town of Kerzers, about 25 kilometers (15 miles) west of Bern, the capital. – Associated Press
Polish President Karol Nawrocki refused Tuesday to sign a law enabling Poland to access almost 44 billion euros in preferential defense loans facilitated by the European Union, claiming it would be wrong to make Poland more dependent on Brussels. – Associated Press
Iceland could conclude accession talks with the EU within “a year and a half” and become its 28th member country, Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir told POLITICO. – Politico
Ferenc Németh writes: Montenegro, the coastal Adriatic state, will be the litmus test. It will prove if EU member states are genuinely committed to enlargement, and what new conditions will be included in its accession document. The country pledged to conclude its accession talks by the end of this year. While being supportive, the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, noted that this is an “ambitious objective”. Creativity in enlargement policy — even the self-interested version proposed by Rama and Vučić — is welcome if the idea can speed up enlargement, while ensuring strong adherence to the rule of law before and after accession. But if leaders only seek economic benefits from the EU, the EU’s project of transformation and democratization crumbles. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Africa
Congo Republic President Denis Sassou Nguesso looks set to extend his decades-long rule in elections on Sunday, even as his advanced age and a term limit fuel speculation about who will eventually succeed him. – Reuters
Nigeria has suspended the issuance of gasoline import licences for a second straight month as regulators begin enforcing provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) that only allow imports when the African country’s domestic supply falls short. – Reuters
The U.S. embassy in Nigeria warned American citizens of a possible “terrorist threat” against U.S. facilities and affiliated schools in the West African country in a security alert late on Monday. – Reuters
Islamist militants from an al Qaeda-linked group killed 10 long-haul truck drivers and two teenage apprentices who were travelling through Mali’s western Kayes region in late January, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Kosovo’s highest court told the president late on Monday not to announce the date for a snap election before March 31, a move that further prolongs a political crisis that has engulfed the tiny Balkan nation. – Reuters
The American Dara Academy in Senegal marketed itself to families in the United States as an affordable boarding school where their children could study the Quran alongside an American curriculum. Parents and families — many with West African roots — sent their children to the school believing it would be a rigorous and affordable religious education. – Associated Press
Jihadi extremist groups, including Boko Haram and one of its factions, have been blamed for intensified attacks targeting Nigeria’s military bases in the northeast of the country in the last week. – Associated Press
The Americas
In the days following the U.S.’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, his government pledged to release a significant number of political prisoners, calling it a gesture “to seek peace.” But how many prisoners and which ones are released has become a bellwether of the country’s future after the removal of its strongman leader. – Wall Street Journal
Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad confirmed on Tuesday that he will step down next week and said that his deputy, Dario Durigan, is likely to succeed him. – Reuters
President Javier Milei aimed to persuade investors in New York on Tuesday that Argentina’s economic turnaround can stay on track even as war in Iran spooks markets, saying the central bank will soon be awash with dollars. – Reuters
International oil majors Chevron (CVX.N), and Shell (SHEL.L), are closing in on the first big oil production deals with Venezuela since the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro in January, five sources close to the negotiations told Reuters. – Reuters
Elected on promises of economic growth, deregulation and public spending cuts, local markets rallied after Chile elected far-right Jose Antonio Kast as president in December, but the economic tailwinds have turned turbulent as the Iran war has sent global markets into a tailspin. – Reuters
Jeremias Rucci writes: The experiment is ongoing. Social costs remain real, and resistance from entrenched interests persists. But after three years, Argentina is no longer debating whether to stabilize; it is debating how to grow within the constraints of fiscal order. If Milei succeeds in translating macroeconomic stabilization into durable productivity gains and political legitimacy, Argentina may become more than a case study in crisis management. It may become evidence that democratic electorates, even after prolonged economic decline, can endorse discipline when it is presented not as sacrifice alone, but as the foundation for renewal. And that would resonate far beyond Buenos Aires. – The Hill
North America
The U.S. consulate in Toronto was hit by gunfire Tuesday morning, according to Canadian authorities. Two men in a white Honda approached the downtown Toronto building around 4:30 a.m., according to the local police, citing witness evidence. The pair got out, fired multiple shots at the consulate and drove away. No one was injured, police said. – Wall Street Journal
Canadian police boosted security around U.S. and Israeli diplomatic buildings on Tuesday after shots were fired at the U.S. consulate in Toronto, in what Prime Minister Mark Carney called a “reprehensible act.” – Reuters
A group of international jurists on Tuesday accused Salvadoran authorities of committing crimes against humanity in a report filed with the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. – Reuters
United States
In the first 11 days of the conflict in Iran, Trump administration officials, including the president, have made different statements on the reasons for war, the objectives of the operation, how long it might last and who should run the country. – Wall Street Journal
Republican lawmakers showed signs Tuesday they were getting nervous about the course of the Iran war and the economic impact on voters ahead of the November elections. – Wall Street Journal
Attorney General Pam Bondi has quietly relocated to one of several military bases in the Washington area where other Trump administration officials also live, after facing threats from drug cartels and critics of her actions in handling the Jeffrey Epstein case, according to people familiar with the situation. – New York Times
The Trump administration plans to restart the Global Entry program on Wednesday, just weeks after it paused the program because of a partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security. – New York Times
The Democratic National Committee sued the Trump administration on Tuesday to try to compel the government to say whether it was planning to put armed federal agents or military personnel at polling places or election offices this year. – New York Times
Democratic U.S. senators expressed alarm on Tuesday about the Iran war, saying they were worried that President Donald Trump could deploy U.S. ground forces and noting the high risks given Russian support for Tehran’s military. – Reuters
President Donald Trump said his vice president, JD Vance, was “philosophically a little bit different than me” at the outset of the war in Iran even as he dismissed the notion of a disagreement between the two. – Associated Press
President Donald Trump said the US will get its first new oil refinery in 50 years with the help of investment from India’s Reliance Industries Ltd. – Bloomberg
Editorial: That would be a profound mistake. The US-Israel relationship has long rested on shared democratic values, strategic cooperation, and cultural ties that transcend partisan divides. Allowing it to become another front in America’s culture wars would weaken both countries and embolden those who seek to delegitimize Israel entirely.New York City’s mayoral residence should be a place that reflects the city’s diversity while also reinforcing its commitment to pluralism and coexistence. Elevating figures associated with movements that have often deepened social divisions moves the city in the opposite direction. Symbolism matters. And when anti-Israel activism reaches City Hall, the consequences are felt far beyond the walls of Gracie Mansion. – Jerusalem Post
Bernard-Henri Lévy writes: In the U.S., it was the obsession of Father Charles Coughlin, who denounced in his radio broadcasts the “Jewish finance” supposedly pushing America toward confrontation with Hitler, and of Charles Lindbergh, who in his September 1941 speech in Des Moines, Iowa, opposed the first “America First” movement to the “Jewish interests” he claimed were fomenting a global conflagration. The Jew as a warmonger is an old cliché of antisemitic propaganda. It would be wise to take that terrible poison out of circulation today. – Wall Street Journal
Liam Denning writes: The other sector tied to energy is artificial intelligence. Data centers don’t run on oil, of course. But they have become a lightning rod for anxiety about higher utility bills. Recall that on the campaign trail, Trump pledged, ludicrously, that he would cut energy bills in half in his first year. While he got nowhere near that (see this), the decline in crude oil prices during 2025 meant that, as a share of disposable personal income, the drop in gasoline prices more than offset the increase in electricity and natural gas costs. Now, energy will be hitting wallets at the plug, pump and stove simultaneously. Can all this be laid at the door of data centers? Not in the accurate sense. But in the political dimension, guilt is often by association and blame assigned by vibes or simply due to being the most convenient target. Exhibit A: Those stickers in 2022 and their possible update in 2026. – Bloomberg
Cybersecurity
The mother of a girl injured after a fatal school shooting last month in Canada launched a lawsuit against OpenAI for its decision not to inform police of the suspect’s interactions with its ChatGPT chatbot. – Wall Street Journal
With cyberattacks on the rise, chances are you’ve received at least one email in recent years telling you that your personal data was stolen in a breach and offering advice on what to do in response. – Wall Street Journal
A top Senate administrator on Monday gave aides the green light to use three artificial intelligence chatbots for official work, a reflection of how widespread the use of the products has become in workplaces around the globe. – New York Times
Artificial intelligence may be enhancing cyber threats, but the defensive approach to those AI-amplified attacks remains the same, a top FBI official said Tuesday. – Cyberscoop
Fred Heiding and Chris Inglis write: The United States’ limited response and failed cyber-deterrence have encouraged further aggression, allowing foreign competitors to build their industries on stolen foundations. This failure has weakened U.S. critical infrastructure and eroded long-term competitiveness. The United States has one final chance to correct that mistake, before the winner of the AI race is crowned. If it is to succeed, Washington must take prompt action to build credible defenses for chips, wires, and humans. Otherwise, China will triumph thanks to the United States’ own inventions. – Foreign Affairs
Defense
Anthropic filed a lawsuit Monday against the Trump administration for designating the artificial-intelligence company a security threat and trying to cancel its federal contracts, bringing the battle between the two sides to the court system. – Wall Street Journal
About 140 U.S. service members have been wounded in the war with Iran, a Pentagon official said Tuesday, as personnel remain under threat from drones and missiles that have left seven U.S. troops dead. The vast majority of the wounded had minor injuries, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement, adding that 108 have returned to duty. – Washington Post
Kharg Island, which handles the bulk of Iran’s crude exports and was once floated by President Donald Trump as a potential target could spark broader regional instability and attacks on energy infrastructure if struck by the U.S., a leading energy security expert has warned. – Fox News
The U.S. Air Force is seeking additional industry sources capable of producing a Stand-in Attack Weapon or equivalent system compatible with the future F-47 fighter and B-21 Raider stealth bomber, according to a sources sought notice posted Wednesday on SAM.gov. – Defense News
Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., the sons of President Donald Trump, invested in a newly formed company that aims to produce autonomous drones for the U.S. military. – Defense News
The U.S. is assessing how to reopen the flow of crude oil tankers and cargo ships through the Persian Gulf as the White House makes resuming regional trade a main priority across the government, the top military advisor to President Donald Trump said Tuesday. – USNI News
William R. Hawkins writes: Yet, a common concern expressed by those testifying at the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense program on December 9 was that not enough attention is being paid to BW threats. This confirmed the warning issued by Dr. George in her earlier Congressional testimony, “Defending the Nation against biological threats that affect national security is not, and has never been, a top priority for any of the 15 Cabinet departments, 9 independent agencies, and 1 independent institution (the Smithsonian) that possess responsibilities for biodefense. Biodefense has always been disgracefully, woefully, and incomprehensively underfunded.” Some of the large increase in defense spending proposed by President Donald Trump should be directed this way. – National Interest
Nilanthi Samaranayake writes: The Starmer government’s information-sharing about the U.K.’s calculus has been poor, while misinformation abounds. There have been many twists and turns over the years in this dispute, including a recent claim by Maldives to the Chagos, and President Trump’s differences with Prime Minister Starmer over Greenland and Iran.Yet for current transparency and future accountability, what’s required is a better understanding of what will follow after finalizing the treaty — compared with inaction on the issue — and how it preserves U.S. national interests in Diego Garcia and more broadly, the dynamic Indian Ocean region. – Defense News