Fdd's overnight brief

Russia

Russian forces are attempting to seize Severodonetsk, one of the largest Ukrainian-controlled cities in the east. If Russia takes the city, it would occupy nearly all of Luhansk, a major part of the Donbas region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Moscow’s combat power is at “maximum” strength in its push to capture the area. – Washington Post 

Russian President Vladimir Putin is digging in for a long war of attrition over Ukraine and will be relentless in trying to use economic weapons, such as a blockade of Ukrainian grain exports, to whittle away Western support for Kyiv, according to members of Russia’s economic elite. – Washington Post 

The U.S. government leveled sanctions against a yacht management company and its owners, describing them as part of a corrupt system that allows Russian elites and President Vladimir V. Putin to enrich themselves, the Treasury Department announced on Thursday.- New York Times 

As the war in Ukraine approaches its 100th day, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that Russian forces now control one-fifth of the country, a blunt acknowledgment of the slow but substantial gains that Moscow has made in recent weeks. – New York Times 

The administration in the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine plans to take over state assets, including strategic firms, land and natural resources, the RIA news agency quoted the administration as saying on Thursday. – Reuters  

The United States has issued a fresh round of Russia-related sanctions targeting 17 individuals, including Sergei Roldugin, a close associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin, a U.S. Department of Treasury said in a notice on its website Thursday. – Reuters 

Editorial: We get that Biden has to make tricky decisions: The risk of escalation is real, even if smaller than the Russians want everyone to think. But the fact remains that US delay and dithering cost Ukraine not only brutal-to-retake territory but blood, as Ukrainian citizens and soldiers pay the price with their lives. Vladimir Putin has yet to blink. America’s president can’t, either. – New York Post 

Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Michael Kofman write: Russian power, it’s worth remembering, has gone through fitful cycles of stagnation, decline and resurgence; it would be wise to avoid triumphalism and complacency. Mr. Putin made a mistake but not necessarily a fatal one. – New York Times 

Anna Borshchevskaya and Garrett I. Campbell write: Again, reflagging ships coupled with a limited demining effort would be difficult. But it is a better option given other alternatives. Western leaders may not realize just how dire the economic crisis will be if left unchecked, and a humanitarian option is better than a military escalation with NATO. Russian military deliberate targeting and theft of Ukraine’s natural resources and merchant ships, as well as weaponization of food show there are no limit to Moscow’s moral depravity. – The Hill 

Michael Kofman and Rob Lee write: However, contemporary debates on force structure and military strategy would benefit greatly by looking at the choices the Russian military made and how they ended up in this position. There’s much to be said about the primacy of political assumptions, which is one of the most decisive factors in how the Russian armed forces were initially thrown into this war, but equally, it is structural choices that have limited its military’s ability to adjust and sustain combat operations. – War on the Rocks 

Afghanistan

For some Afghans who were evacuated as their country fell to the Taliban last summer, the journey to the United States has stalled, and perhaps ended, at a sun-baked cluster of tents and temporary housing on an American base in the Balkans. – Associated Press 

The German parliament will set up a commission of inquiry into last year’s evacuation mission from Afghanistan and a fact-finding commission on Berlin’s two-decade involvement there, lawmakers said Thursday. – Associated Press 

Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers are maintaining close ties with al-Qaida as they consolidate control over the country, and their main military threat is coming from the Islamic State extremist group and guerrilla-style attacks by former Afghan government security personnel, U.N. experts said in a new report. – Associated Press 

Indian foreign ministry officials visited Kabul for talks with the Taliban and international organizations involved in the distribution of humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan, the External Affairs Ministry said in a statement Thursday. – Associated Press 

Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers have begun a campaign to eradicate poppy cultivation, aiming to wipe out the country’s massive production of opium and heroin, even as farmers fear their livelihoods will be ruined at a time of growing poverty. – Associated Press 

Israel

Israeli forces shot and killed two Palestinians in the occupied West Bank during what the army described as violent confrontations on Thursday. They are among four Palestinians who have been killed in the last two days at a time of heightened Mideast tensions. – Associated Press  

Seth J. Frantzman writes: It is also relevant because of Jerusalem’s focus on “third circle” threats, meaning those from Iran. While Israel has managed the campaign between the wars, striking Iranian shipments in Syria using aircraft, it’s clear that the Jewish state needs more capabilities to confront Iran’s expansion across the region in case of a conflict. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia took steps Thursday to boost oil production and extend a truce with Iran-backed forces in Yemen, two significant moves that help pave the way for President Biden to visit the kingdom later this month as the two countries try to reset their strained relationship. – Wall Street Journal 

Militants attacked a civilian bus in eastern Syria on Thursday, killing three people and wounding 21, Syrian state TV reported. The TV said the bus was attacked near a village in a desert area of the province of Deir el-Zour, which borders Iraq. It did not say whether the bus was attacked with machinegun fire, a missile or a roadside bomb. – Associated Press 

The Israel Defense Forces on Thursday wrapped up a major military exercise in Cyprus, simulating a military ground offensive deep inside Lebanon in a potential war against the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group. – Times of Israel 

Israel is set to agree to new security arrangements allowing Egypt to transfer control of two islands in the Straits of Tiran to Saudi Arabia, US President Joe Biden is expected to announce on his trip to the region at the end of the month. – Jerusalem Post 

China

China is poised to launch its newest, most advanced aircraft carrier, in a major step that will enable its navy to expand its military operations on the high seas. New satellite imagery reviewed by The Wall Street Journal shows that after several years of work in the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai, China’s third carrier, known as a Type 003, may be afloat in coming weeks or even days, analysts said. The Type 003 is China’s third aircraft carrier, and its largest and most advanced. It uses new electromagnetic catapult technology akin to what the U.S. and French carriers have to launch aircraft, analysts said. – Wall Street Journal 

Russian officials have raised increasingly frustrated requests for greater support during discussions with Beijing in recent weeks, calling on China to live up to its affirmation of a “no limits” partnership made weeks before the war in Ukraine began. But China’s leadership wants to expand assistance for Russia without running afoul of Western sanctions and has set limits on what it will do, according to Chinese and U.S. officials. – Washington Post 

China’s Ambassador to New Zealand Wang Xiaolong said on Friday that he and New Zealand’s foreign minister had discussed how the two countries could steer bilateral relations to benefit both sides. – Reuters 

China “firmly” opposes a new trade initiative between Taiwan and the United States, the Commerce Ministry said on Thursday, a plan the government in Taipei says is a recognition of the key position the island plays in global supply chains. – Reuters 

The Australian partner of a journalist who has been detained in China for nearly two years said Thursday she is being denied the chance to speak with her family and consular staff, and her health is declining due to a poor prison diet. – Associated Press 

Joseph C. Sternberg writes: China’s great economic weakness is the lack of a political mechanism to bless or forgive policy shifts. For many years, a silly line of media commentary held the West should aspire to be “China for a day” in order to emulate an autocrat’s capacity to Get Things Done. Mr. Xi and his Communist Party will never admit it, but they’d now be a lot better off if they could be “America for a day” and allow an election to vent public frustration with their rule—while giving them the credibility they need to change course. – Wall Street Journal  

Dimon Liu writes: More likely, China’s leader will try to impress the elders with some foreign policy successes. That may mean more summits, especially with the Europeans, better to convince the elders that he is skilled at handling foreigners, a prerequisite for the top job. (The last one, in April, went very badly indeed; Europeans were unimpressed by China’s support for Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine.) The rapid seizure of one or more of Taiwan’s outlying islands, while the world has its focus on Ukraine, is more likely. This would mark a statement of future intent for a full-scale invasion when Xi gets his third term. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

Asia

The foreign ministers of Australia and China were both making their final stops Friday on what has become an island-hopping diplomatic duel in the South Pacific. – Associated Press 

Papua New Guinea’s prime minister warned the Opposition not to “play politics” with the visit of China’s foreign minister amid an election campaign, noting China is a major trade partner and the biggest buyer of the Pacific nation’s gas exports. – Reuters 

The U.S. State Department has updated its fact sheet on Taiwan again, to reinstate a line about not supporting formal independence for the Chinese-claimed, democratically-governed island. – Reuters 

The state minister of the de-facto Artsakh Republic stated that Russian peacekeepers should remain in the Nagorno-Karabakh region indefinitely in an interview with RIA Novosti on Friday, following weeks of skirmishes along the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. – Jerusalem Post 

An article published May 16, 2022 in the Taiwanese media outlet Nownews.com, titled “Countermeasures! The Way to Victory in the Han Kuang Exercise,” discussed the 38th annual Han Kuang drill held by the Taiwanese military May 16-20. The Han Kuang live-fire component is scheduled for July 25-29. The article stated that during the drills, a Chinese carrier group led by the Liaoning carrier was also training, off the eastern coast of Taiwan, “revealing its intention to seize the berthing area where Taiwan preserves its naval power.” – Middle East Media Research Institute 

An article published May 17, 2022 by the Chinese media outlet Global Times stated that the Taiwanese Air Force had learned from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict about the importance of mobile radar. The article, titled “Learning From The Ukrainian Army To Defeat The Strong? The Taiwan Army Is Trying To Find A ‘Magic Trick’ Against The PLA,” added that the Taiwanese military’s experience based on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is diametrically opposed to the direction in which the Taiwanese military has been developing in recent years. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Charles Edel writes: The ongoing developments in the Pacific should underscore the critical importance for the United States of engaging the many oft-neglected countries of the Pacific Islands. They should also serve as an opportunity to assess the effectiveness of U.S. and allied policy toward this vital region, and encourage Washington to be more creative, more proactive, and more committed to the Pacific. – Foreign Affairs 

Ted R. Bromund writes: The U.K. will never be an Indo-Pacific power on the level of the U.S., but it is rapidly building on its naval presence in Singapore and its garrison in Brunei and is likely to become a power on the level of Australia: a valuable ally with significant capabilities and serious interests in the region. That outcome would be very much in the interests of the U.S. as it begins to stare down China, and it is an outcome the U.S. should support and encourage. – Heritage Foundation 

Africa

With many of the world’s poorest countries facing alarming levels of hunger and starvation, the leader of the African Union is set to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin on Friday and urge him to lift Russia’s blockade on urgently needed cereals and fertilizer from Ukraine. – New York Times 

Once a key ally of Ethiopia’s federal government in its deadly war in the country’s northern Tigray region, the neighboring Amhara region is now experiencing government-led mass arrests and disappearances of activists, journalists and other perceived critics. – Associated Press 

Agnès Callamard and Kenneth Roth write: The United States, the European Union, and regional powers should also call for credible independent investigations into the abuses in Western Tigray. The International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia, mandated by the UN Human Rights Council, and the Commission of Inquiry established by the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights should make it a priority to document human rights abuses in Western Tigray and press for credible justice and redress for serious crimes. – Foreign Affairs 

Cybersecurity

An order by Indian regulators requiring Internet companies to store their users’ real names and track their usage history has alarmed digital privacy advocates and virtual private network providers, which have begun to pull out of the country in protest. – Washington Post 

China’s proposed cybersecurity rules for financial firms could pose risks to operations of western companies by making their data vulnerable to hacking, among other things, a leading lobby group has said in a letter seen by Reuters. – Reuters 

Microsoft detected and took down an Iran-linked Lebanese hacking group that targeted more than 20 Israeli organizations and one intergovernmental organization, the tech conglomerate announced Thursday. – Jerusalem Post  

A trio of U.S. government agencies on Wednesday issued an advisory with technical details related to the Karakurt data extortion gang, warning that the group has “employed a variety of tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs), creating significant challenges for defense and mitigation.” – CyberScoop 

Hackers likely affiliated with the notorious Russian cybercrime group Evil Corp are using off-the-shelf ransomware to evade U.S. sanctions, researchers at security firm Mandiant have found. – CyberScoop