Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israel, Lebanon deny US claim that Israel has withdrawn from part of southern Lebanon Iran attacks cargo ship, testing Trump's deal to reopen strait Vance announces unprecedented CENTCOM-IRGC talks aimed at reducing military tensions Iran’s Quds Force chief tells Israel to leave Lebanon or face ‘humiliating defeat’ WaPo Editorial: Iran hasn’t given an inch on human rights. Is the U.S. even trying? Ukraine’s growing drone armada is overwhelming Russia's air defenses US moves ahead with $700 million jet engine sale to Turkey despite lawmaker concerns Iraq’s new leader faces resistance trying to bring militias under state control North Korea deploys its first destroyer, vowing to project nuclear power by sea South Korea says to train 500,000 'drone warriors' to counter North Korea Bloomberg’s Karishma Vaswani: China’s biggest risk may be believing its own hype President of Honestly Concerned Sacha Stawski: The terror network Europe failed to confrontIn The News
Israel
Senior Israeli and Lebanese officials denied on Thursday that there had been any Israeli withdrawal from occupied southern Lebanon, after a U.S. official said Israel had pulled some troops back in a good faith gesture toward Lebanon’s government. – Reuters
EL AL Airlines will suspend its Tel Aviv-Moscow flights for the coming days due to developments between Russia and Ukraine and recent aviation incidents in the region, a spokesperson said on Thursday. – Reuters
President Donald Trump’s administration has pushed hard to present a united front on the Iran war, but statements by his vice president and secretary of state have at times diverged over the past week, especially on the subject of Israel. – Reuters
US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon that were slated to end Thursday will go on for another day, the State Department said. – Agence France-Presse
Israel and Lebanon are making good progress in their talks in Washington and are close to making a “commitment of intent,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday. – Agence France-Presse
A resolution for Israel to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide will be submited at the upcoming government meeting by Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar. Sa’ar, announcing the resolution in a Thursday post to X/Twitter, said that the proposed resolution will afterward be brought before the Knesset for a vote. – Jerusalem Post
The Israel Navy hosted a German Navy delegation, including a vessel conducting a port visit at the Port of Haifa, the military confirmed on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
Defense Minister Israel Katz on Thursday committed Israel to becoming the leading global player in space-attack capabilities. – Jerusalem Post
Israel is making “immediate preparations” for the possible deployment of an aid delegation to Venezuela, the Foreign Ministry said Thursday, as thousands of people are potentially missing following powerful earthquakes in the South American country. – Times of Israel
Four IDF soldiers were wounded Thursday evening during an encounter with a Hezbollah terrorist in southern Lebanon. The casualties include one combat officer who was moderately wounded, and another combat officer and two soldiers who sustained light injuries. – Arutz Sheva
Iran
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship Thursday in the Strait of Hormuz, according to two senior U.S. officials, testing the deal signed last week by the U.S. and Iran to end the fighting and reopen the vital shipping lane. – Wall Street Journal
Iran is pushing to make billions of dollars from the Strait of Hormuz as the regime positions itself to manage the global oil artery it severed at the start of the war. – Wall Street Journal
The interim U.S.-Iran peace accord gives U.N. nuclear inspectors access to Iran, the watchdog’s top official said on Friday, after Tehran indicated key sites would remain off-limits until a final deal with Washington was reached and sanctions lifted. – Reuters
The U.N. International Maritime Organization paused its operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday after a vessel reported an attack, reigniting concerns about whether a preliminary deal to end the Iran war will hold. – Reuters
Crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose this week to their highest level since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began in February after a ceasefire deal reopened the waterway, data showed on Thursday. – Reuters
Carrying photos of loved ones killed in the war with the U.S. and Israel, Iranian pilgrims crossed into the Iraqi holy city of Karbala to commemorate Ashura, the holiest day on the Shi’ite Muslim calendar. – Reuters
Tehran accused NATO on Thursday of “complicity” in the US-Israeli war against Iran, after the bloc’s chief noted its support for the United States in the conflict. – Agence France-Presse
In a stunning turn of events, US Vice President JD Vance told the media outlet Unherd on Thursday that CENTCOM officials will meet with Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials in Doha, Qatar, to resolve conflicts between the sides. – Jerusalem Post
Former supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s underground bunker complex included a blast-resistant room and escape tunnels beneath central Tehran, Iran International reported on Thursday, citing architectural plans received from an informed source. – Jerusalem Post
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani issued a direct warning to Israel on Thursday, urging it to withdraw from Lebanon immediately or face what he described as a future forced exit. – Ynet
Editorial: Tehran has been equally obstinate when it comes to how it will use the billions of frozen funds that will be released as a result of the memorandum of understanding. The president has said Iran will use the cash to purchase American agricultural goods. Iran’s central bank governor said the regime has “no obligation to buy agricultural products” from the U.S. One important issue that wasn’t addressed by the MOU: At least six U.S. citizens are being held in Iranian prisons. The family of Austin Tice, who wrote for The Post before disappearing in Syria in 2012, believes he may be in the custody of the IRGC and could have been taken into Iran after the fall of the Assad regime. If Iran is serious about starting a new chapter, negotiators have many options to demonstrate goodwill. Bringing Tice home would be a good one. – Washington Post
Marc A. Thiessen writes: Now, as the Trump administration pursues a nuclear deal, the fundamental test is whether Iran will admit it had a nuclear weapons program. “Does [Iran] say, ‘Okay, yeah, we did have a nuclear weapons program. Here’s what it was about. Here’s where it took place.’ And all these lies that they’ve been perpetuating for years over this question should be settled.” Unless Iran is willing to do so, then it is not serious. It needs to “come clean,” he said. Right now, Albright worries that “Iran is setting up a process to stall … and they’ll figure that it’s too late for Trump to go back to war.” But regardless of what happens at the negotiating table, he said, “what was accomplished [by military action] was pretty significant on the nuclear front.” The idea that Iran is stronger today is bunk. – Washington Post
Tom Rogan writes: The notion that this regime is somehow going to enjoin a new era of detente is fatuous. But effective national security policy requires a prudent analysis of the best options. Waging a prolonged war with Iran would ultimately require U.S. troops in Iran while delivering highly unpredictable consequences. It would likely cost U.S. interests far more than it would gain. If diplomacy fails, then the best course of action is a return to limited air strikes and the restoration of the naval blockade of Iranian ports. With time, Iran will eventually be forced into a more concessionary negotiating stance. But we shouldn’t pretend that Iran poses a nemesis threat on the scale of China. – Washington Examiner
David Hambling writes: But the Iranians have a long history of military drone development, and Tehran has become a major drone exporter. The thousands of Shahed drones that Russia flings at Ukraine’s cities were designed in Iran. And the regime is certainly not ignorant of swarms: In 2021 the Iranian Army showcased a new system it called Mass Flight, in which an operator controls a leader drone with a squadron of nine additional drones automatically following its lead. […] Crucially, we still don’t know if whatever the F-15 encountered was actually related to the downing of the aircraft: did the pilot run into a drone? Or was he distracted enough to miss another threat? Or was this sighting simply a bizarre incidental feature of the mission? At present we have more questions than answers. Only the Iranians know the truth — and they’re not telling. – New York Post
James F. Jeffrey writes: But over the past three years, the United States has accumulated a series of gains that have largely reversed Iran’s regional successes over the prior 20 years. Assuming that the administration manages to keep the strait open and limit Iran’s long-term nuclear enrichment, a U.S. policy aimed at containment, not regime overthrow, will have been a win. The task now is not to achieve an unattainable final victory, but to consolidate these gains and ensure that Iran remains weaker than when conflict first broke out in 2023. – Foreign Affairs
Russia and Ukraine
Ukraine is swamping Russia’s air defenses with a growing armada of long-range drones that target refineries, port infrastructure, military industries and those air defenses themselves. – Wall Street Journal
Ukraine’s Fire Point, maker of the Flamingo cruise missile, is accelerating plans to develop a European missile defence system after an agreement with German radar maker Hensoldt and hopes to have its first interceptors ready by the end of the year. – Reuters
The Kremlin said on Thursday it valued U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to mediate in the war in Ukraine and believed the U.S. understood that it could not play that role while supporting one of the opposing sides. – Reuters
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday he had warned Ukraine, against a background of rising tensions, not to try to drag his country into war. With Moscow’s forces struggling to advance and Ukraine raining drones on targets far inside Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly alleged that Moscow wants to get Belarus more involved on the Russian side. – Reuters
The U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Friday repairs had been completed on a key power line and other energy infrastructure vital for nuclear safety at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). – Reuters
The European Union has disbursed the first 3 billion-euro ($3.4 billion) tranche of a 90 billion-euro ($101 billion) loan to Ukraine, the country’s prime minister announced Thursday at the opening of a conference on Ukraine’s post-war recovery in Poland. – Associated Press
Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet write: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals are methodically isolating Crimea, turning off the lights for Putin as they do so. On Wednesday, the Kyiv Independent reported that half of Crimea is now without power due to Ukrainian strikes. Russian authorities in Crimea have not only been forced to ration fuel but to halt all gasoline sales to civilians. Putin’s end is coming in Crimea. As we and retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges have long argued, Crimea is the decisive terrain of this war. Ukraine does not even have to retake it — it needs only to render it untenable for Russian military use. That day is now fast approaching. The struggle for Crimea will likely culminate in Ukraine finally destroying Putin’s $4 billion Kerch Bridge. Can Putin politically survive the loss of Crimea to Ukraine? We highly doubt it. – The Hill
David Kirichenko writes: “Vulnerable soldiers who cannot pay their commanders are the ones sent into doomed, meat-grinder missions,” said Popova. The willingness to broaden recruitment efforts reflects both military necessity and a longstanding tradition of treating manpower as a strategic resource. Russian forces have increasingly deployed wounded soldiers back into combat, including some suffering from serious injuries and, in several documented cases, soldiers using crutches. The growing recruitment of women may also point to the pressures created by a grinding war of attrition. Despite continued offensive operations, Russia faces a constant need to replenish its ranks. – The National Interest
Turkey
President Donald Trump’s administration has formally notified Congress of its intention to sell dozens of jet engines worth more than $700 million to Turkey, according to a copy of the formal notification seen by Reuters on Thursday. – Reuters
Dozens of Turkish journalists have been denied accreditation for a NATO summit in the Turkish capital Ankara next month, media outlets and journalist associations said on Thursday, with NATO saying it relied on Turkey for guidance about journalists. – Reuters
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan discussed the earthquakes in Venezuela and the country’s need for aid in a call with his Venezuelan counterpart Yvan Gil on Thursday, a Turkish foreign ministry source said. – Reuters
The European Union has rebuked Turkey for excluding Cyprus from preparations for this year’s U.N. climate summit, as diplomatic tensions mount over the issue ahead of the global climate talks. – Reuters
Gulf States
Rubio assured the foreign ministers of six Arab Gulf states Thursday that there would be “no part of this deal that’s undertaken that in any way undermines the security, stability or prosperity of any of our partners in the Gulf region.” – Washington Post
Saudi Aramco resumed oil loading on Friday at its Ras Tanura terminal in the Gulf after a near four-month halt, shipping data from LSEG showed. Two Very Large Crude Carriers were seen loading crude at the terminal, while another waited nearby, the data showed. Each VLCC is capable of loading 2 million barrels of oil. – Reuters
President Sheikh Mohamed received Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani in Abu Dhabi on Thursday. Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Al Shibani discussed regional developments in the Middle East and reviewed co-operation in sectors including development and the economy, state news agency Wam reported. – The National
Elliot Kaufman writes: That’s why the Trump administration had previously sought restrictions on Iran’s missile program. These could include caps on the number and type of missiles, limiting their range and also payload to bar nuclear-capable missiles. Are those also this regime’s right? Iran isn’t Israel or even Saudi Arabia—a difference that U.S. policy should have no trouble reflecting. Yet the dynamics of a weak nuclear deal with Iran almost inevitably bring U.S. leaders to bash Israel while rushing to the defense of imagined Iranian rights and prerogatives. That does our Gulf allies no favors, if Mr. Vance is still listening. – Wall Street Journal
Ronen Levy and Noa Lazimi write: Expanding the role of frameworks such as the UAE-Israel Business Council and encouraging greater two-way investment would strengthen the civilian foundations of the relationship and help ensure the long-term durability of a partnership that has been years in the making. The Iran conflict demonstrated that the Israel-UAE relationship is far greater than a diplomatic achievement. It is a partnership forged under fire – one grounded in shared sacrifice, common security challenges, and a mutual commitment to regional stability. The challenge now is to translate that reality into a deeper, more institutionalized partnership capable of shaping the future of the region. – Jerusalem Post
Middle East & North Africa
Iraq’s new prime minister has met with significant resistance as he attempts to bring the Iran-backed militias in his country under state control, after intense pressure from the Trump administration to rein in the armed groups. – New York Times
A long-awaited ceasefire has brought relative calm to Lebanon, but it hasn’t brought peace of mind to Hussein Merhi. He is among tens of thousands who remain displaced because their homes were destroyed in Israeli strikes or their hometowns fall within a swathe of the south occupied by Israel’s military — or, as in his case, both. – Reuters
A Yemeni journalist was killed in a car bombing in southeastern Yemen and investigators have been ordered to search for the culprits, the government said Thursday. – Associated Press
Korean Peninsula
The ambition of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, to project naval power beyond his country’s coastal waters was boosted this week when he officially commissioned the country’s first naval destroyer, which he said was armed with nuclear-capable missiles. – New York Times
South Korea will rapidly expand its drone and counter-drone capabilities to counter North Korea, including by training 500,000 “drone warriors” and distributing tens of thousands of unmanned systems across frontline units, the Defence Ministry said on Friday. – Reuters
Samsung Group will unveil a sweeping decade-long investment plan on Monday, pledging 1,000 trillion won ($648 billion) to anchor South Korea’s next growth cycle, including a possible 300 trillion won push to build chip factories in the country’s southwest, a media report said. – Reuters
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected a new train station at a beach resort on the country’s east coast, weeks after Xi Jinping pledged deeper tourism ties between the two countries. – Bloomberg
China
China expressed its anger and Taiwan its gratitude after the U.S., Britain, France and Germany raised the alarm about the Chinese Coast Guard and activities off the island’s east coast. – Reuters
Polestar said on Thursday the Trump administration was forcing the electric-vehicle maker to stop selling vehicles in the United States beginning in the 2027 model year as Washington ramps up its crackdown on Chinese vehicles. – Reuters
The U.S. State Department’s top diplomat for East Asia said on Thursday that a pending arms sale notification to Congress for Taiwan does not hinge on discussions with China, despite that suggestion from President Donald Trump. – Reuters
China and Austria should respect each other’s “core interests” and work to improve China-EU ties, Beijing’s top diplomat told his Austrian counterpart on Thursday, as disputes over trade, market access and Russia strain relations with Brussels. – Reuters
Karishma Vaswani writes: Beijing is not blind to its problems, but risks obscuring those challenges with bravado. At Summer Davos, Premier Li Qiang vowed to expand domestic demand and further open China to foreign firms. But these promises have been made before, with limited success. China will need to work harder to convince both its own citizens and the international community that it can turn the corner on domestic demand and reign in its military actions that are worrying nations across Asia. Confidence is no guarantor of good outcomes. When a country starts buying into its own hype, it can fail to see its weaknesses. That’s a dangerous moment for China, and for the rest of us. – Bloomberg
Brahma Chellaney writes: Second, governments, universities, museums and international organizations must reject the enforced use of “Xizang” in place of Tibet. Preserving historical and cultural nomenclature is a small but essential act of resistance against erasure. Third, greater material and political support is needed for Tibetan educational and cultural institutions in exile, which remain the last line of defense for this unique culture. The fate of Tibet’s children is a bellwether for the future of Asia’s security order. To ignore their forced separation and indoctrination is to acquiesce in China’s tightening grip on Tibet — and by extension on the strategic heart of Asia. – The Hill
South Asia
India has increased supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to non-household users and removed caps on supplies to various commercial sectors after increased availability, the government said in a statement issued on Thursday. – Reuters
India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said on Thursday he explored opportunities for New Delhi and Tehran to cooperate in the energy sector during his meeting with Iran’s Petroleum Minister Mohsen Paknejad in New Delhi. – Reuters
India and the United States are very close to finalising a trade deal, India’s trade minister Piyush Goyal said on Thursday, a day after he wrapped up talks with U.S. trade chief Jamieson Greer over a pact seen as crucial to bilateral ties. – Reuters
Afghanistan’s Taliban government has ordered a nationwide ban on civil servants’ smartphone use, a military court order showed, prompting warnings from rights activists that the move could further restrict access to information. – Reuters
Lucas Myers writes: While U.S. efforts may not swing the conflict decisively in the resistance’s favor, maintaining the status quo denies the regime international legitimacy and critical revenue amid an ongoing war whose outcome is uncertain. So long as the Spring Revolution remains in the field and holds substantial territory, prematurely discounting the resistance and treating the junta as the foregone victor, warranting diplomatic engagement would misread Myanmar’s still-contested internal balance of power. – War on the Rocks
Asia
Taiwanese officials on Thursday simulated countering a Chinese maritime blockade with a tabletop exercise, using a scenario in which China demands any shipping to the island first gets Beijing’s approval and also boards or even seizes ships. – Reuters
Thailand has issued an arrest warrant for a Chinese businessman featured in a Reuters investigation into transnational crypto-investment fraud, alleging he was part of a network that laundered money from scams and online gambling through illegal cryptocurrency mining. – Reuters
Cambodia’s Supreme Court has upheld the sentences of two journalists jailed last year on charges of revealing military secrets during the country’s border clashes with Thailand, their lawyer’s office said on Thursday. – Reuters
The last Australian woman held in a Syrian camp for families of Islamic State group fighters has been given permission to return to Australia under strict conditions, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said Thursday. – Associated Press
Indonesia is dangling unprecedented legal protections for investors in President Prabowo Subianto’s sovereign wealth fund, a move analysts warn could attract money with questionable origins and further erode the reputation of Southeast Asia’s largest economy. – Bloomberg
Chhay Sinarith writes: Some international observers remain skeptical of our efforts. That is understandable. The real test is whether criminals are brought to justice and victims are properly identified. Cambodia knows it must show sustained action and measurable results. Criminal syndicates adapt quickly, and we are not claiming victory. But Cambodia has moved from periodic crackdowns to a sustained campaign to eliminate these networks. The legal framework is stronger. Enforcement has expanded. International cooperation has increased, and institutions are being built to sustain this effort. Cambodia will not be defined by criminal networks, but by our determination to eliminate them. We have made real progress, and we know there is more work ahead. But the direction is clear. Cambodia is committed to finishing this fight. – The Hill
David Akopyan and Nargis Kassenova write: The strategic challenge for Armenia and Kazakhstan is not to choose between East and West, but to preserve sufficient flexibility to benefit from both. Such balancing is neither easy nor cost-free. Both countries remain vulnerable to external pressure. Yet their experience suggests that diversification may be the most realistic path toward preserving sovereignty in an era of growing geopolitical competition. Eventually, if it works, countries on the edge may serve as bridges or crossroads connecting different worlds and as safe havens for people, businesses, and capital. – The National Interest
Europe
The European Union on Thursday followed through on a central plank of its trade deal with President Trump after months of internal wrangling. Another economic battle with Washington looms even larger. – Wall Street Journal
As policymakers discuss Ukraine’s reconstruction in Poland on Thursday, the government in Warsaw is struggling to defuse tensions over history that could hamper collaboration as Kyiv eyes a path to peace and European Union membership. – Reuters
NATO allies will announce tens of billions of dollars in defense-related deals at a summit next month in Turkey, and will also underscore their commitment to defense spending goals and reaffirm their support for Ukraine, NATO chief Mark Rutte said on Thursday. – Reuters
Italy and France are hesitant about a European Union proposal to ban former Russian combatants from entering the bloc, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Thursday accused NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte of giving a muddled account when he described her country as offering “massive” support to U.S.-Israeli attacks against Iran. – Politico
Just over a year after Romania’s moderate President Nicușor Dan won power in a tense showdown with the far right, he is facing his most serious test yet — trying to broker a deal between rival parties to form a stable government. – Politico
EU member countries agreed on Thursday to impose visa restrictions on Somali citizens over the country’s failure to readmit its nationals staying in the EU illegally. – Politico
Michael R. Bloomberg writes: I remain bullish on their prospects for success, given their underlying strengths. But the past decade has shown, and recent geopolitical conflicts have underscored, how dangerous it is for any country or region to attempt to go it alone. Democratic nations grow in strength — economically, politically, militarily and culturally — when we grow together. And as the democratic values and security concerns that bind the UK and the EU together come under assault, a close partnership is more essential than ever. Now that the fog of the Brexit debate has lifted and the damage is plain to see, the question is whether Britain and Europe are prepared to repair their relationship to rebuild their futures. The fate of the new government now forming in London hinges on the answer. – Bloomberg
Rosario Iaconis writes: Signora Meloni stressed that the “West’s unity and firm stance continue to be the most effective way to create the conditions necessary for a real negotiation process.”Italy will play a pivotal role at the NATO Summit early next month at Ankara. Rome will take center stage as the alliance focuses on its southern flank. Together with France, Italy will supply Turkey with a key mobile surface-to-air missile system.Despite tensions with Mr. Trump, Signora Meloni will employ her trademark negotiating expertise to position Italy as the critical diplomatic bridge between America and Europe. Global leadership, it turns out, is made of sterner stuff. – New York Sun
Sacha Stawski writes: The most urgent first step is a comprehensive Europe-wide ban on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), accompanied by sanctions targeting its financial networks, front organizations, and support structures. As long as policymakers focus only on individual groups while ignoring the broader architecture that connects them, they will continue to address symptoms rather than the underlying problem. – Jerusalem Post
Africa
Africa’s top health agency offered a grim outlook on the Ebola crisis raging in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Thursday, warning that contact tracing was dangerously behind where it needed to be to end the spread. – New York Times
The Democratic Republic of Congo has imposed a 21-day quarantine for anyone returning from Ebola-affected areas before they can travel abroad, tightening controls after France confirmed its first imported case linked to the outbreak. – Reuters
Newly issued Sudanese pounds have begun circulating in territory controlled by a paramilitary group fighting the national army, raising questions about the source of the notes and potentially deepening the country’s de facto division. – Reuters
The US has sanctioned Rwanda’s Gasabo Gold Refinery Ltd. for fueling conflict by processing gold stolen from eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. – Bloomberg
Rwanda has issued a pointed ultimatum to its Western partners: Guarantee sustainable funding for its counter-terrorism mission in northern Mozambique or its troops come home. It is a threat that could hand an Islamic State affiliate breathing room in a region where tens of billions of dollars in Western energy investments are at risk. – New York Sun
Faouzi Abdulbagi Mahammat Anour woke up in Tine, Chad, with a burnt face and his right eye missing after being attacked on the Sudanese side of the border by a drone. – Agence France-Presse
Nate Allen and Rida Lyammouri write: Just as they have for a decade now, drones are likely to continue to play decisive roles in the continent’s—and world’s—most important conflicts. And as the drone revolution continues apace, the equalizing effect of low-cost drones will make integration into existing capabilities, systems, and force structures—not technological supremacy—the key determinant of those conflicts’ outcomes. As long as African militaries continue to outsource their technology to foreign powers and strategies to autonomous systems, they will be out-innovated by insurgents again and again. – Foreign Affairs
The Americas
The U.S. Geological Survey warned the earthquakes had the potential to rank among the deadliest and costliest in the country’s history, projecting a death toll in the tens of thousands and billions of dollars in economic losses. The disaster left thousands sleeping outdoors, flattened neighborhoods from Caracas’s tightly packed districts to the ocean-view communities on the Caribbean, and exposed the country’s crumbling emergency-response system after years of economic collapse. – Wall Street Journal
Starlink, the satellite internet unit of Elon Musk’s SpaceX said on Thursday it will provide free services to its users in Venezuela for a month, after two earthquakes hit the South American nation. – Reuters
The World Bank Group said on Thursday it is in contact with Venezuelan authorities and assessing how best to support the country after two powerful earthquakes, with thousands feared dead. – Reuters
Canadian Defence Minister David McGuinty said on Thursday he had discussed the advanced fighter jet programme being pursued by Japan, Britain and Italy with his Japanese counterpart to learn more about what he described as a “promising initiative”. – Reuters
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday Canada should reopen its embassies in Iran and Venezuela that his predecessors closed. Carney argued the lack of a diplomatic presence hampers Ottawa’s ability to help Canadians abroad and respond to humanitarian crises despite deep disagreements with the two governments. – Associated Press
Brazil’s most prominent conservative family is feuding again, posing fresh risks to the presidential candidacy of Flávio Bolsonaro just when it seemed he had an opening to hit leftist leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. – Bloomberg
Venezuela will use some of the reserve assets it holds at the International Monetary Fund as part of reconstruction efforts after being hit by back-to-back earthquakes – Bloomberg
United States
The Supreme Court gave President Donald Trump’s efforts to curtail immigration a major boost Thursday, handing down a ruling that could allow the administration to deport millions of immigrants who have been living the United States lawfully. – Washington Post
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host a summit on July 15 that will include dozens of countries to discuss ways to counter a resurgence in political violence, a State Department official said on Thursday. – Reuters
Swiss President Guy Parmelin will visit the United States and meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer next week, the government said on Thursday, as Bern seeks to formalise a preliminary deal with the Trump administration on tariffs. – Reuters
Donald Trump is expected to take his first trip on the new US presidential plane gifted by the Qatari government when he travels to an event in North Dakota on July 1, according to White House officials. – Bloomberg
President Donald Trump urged his party to unite around his agenda following a Thursday meeting with House Speaker Mike Johnson intended to defuse escalating tensions between the White House and congressional Republicans. – Bloomberg
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro privately met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on the sidelines of a Toronto summit earlier this month — the latest sign that top 2028 Democratic contenders are cultivating ties with a key ally as they prepare for the post-Trump era. – Politico
Most Americans, including majorities of Republicans and self-identified MAGA Republicans, say keeping the United States in NATO is important to the nation’s security and prosperity, according to a new poll. – Fox News
Joel Pollak writes: In LA, socialist mayoral candidate Nithya Raman has echoed the “genocide” rhetoric against Israel. And note that the accusation does nothing constructive for Palestinians. Instead, it encourages them — the aggressors, albeit the losers, in this conflict — to see themselves as victims. That simply guarantees that the conflict will continue. Some find gratification in that. But we should not. Jews wonder how New York went from the most important Jewish capital outside of Israel to the epicenter of antisemitism in America. California does not have to go down that road. But the “democratic socialists” who feel they have momentum within the Democratic Party want to keep pushing in that direction. Now is the time to demand that our candidates — including the socialists — plan to counter Mandami’s hateful slate in Congress. After November is too late. – New York Post
Cybersecurity
Kunal Shah, an Indian fintech founder with no engineering degree or Silicon Valley pedigree, has spent two decades building businesses around digital payments and consumer behaviour in India. – Reuters
The Kremlin demanded an explanation from Apple on Thursday after several Russian mobile apps related to the Russian internet company VK were deleted from the U.S. tech giant’s App Store. – Reuters
Australia’s prime minister said on Friday he was keen to make sure the country’s social media ban for children was as strong as possible, as a new study found that the measure — the first of its kind and now six months old — had little impact on teen use. – Reuters
Montenegrin police and the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation arrested an Iranian national suspected of hacking attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure to the tune of $3.4 billion, Montenegrin police said. – Reuters
The US has proposed that the European Union sign on to an artificial intelligence partnership as part of an effort to create an alliance to secure supply chains for semiconductors as competition with China intensifies. – Bloomberg
Ukraine’s state-owned postal operator, Ukrposhta, said on Thursday that its mobile application is experiencing temporary disruptions following an overnight “enemy” attack on the company’s IT systems. – The Record
Russian authorities used Cellebrite phone data extraction technology to snoop in a dissident’s device three months after the Israeli commercial surveillance company said it had cut the country off due to human rights concerns. – The Record
A cyberattack has snarled logistics and accounting operations at a dairy producer in Russia’s republic of Bashkortostan, forcing the company to process shipments and paperwork manually, according to local media. – The Record
Editorial: The obstacle, as ever, is the EU’s internal politics. Its leaders have long called publicly for a capital market union. But for various reasons — fear of domestic backlash, desire for control, protection of influential local industries — they’ve balked at the deeper regulatory, legal and fiscal integration required to make it happen. As a result, European markets remain too small and fragmented to handle US-scale investment. Promising startups go across the Atlantic, where the money is — and where the regulatory barriers are less daunting. The EU has so far managed to muddle through in its flawed form, gradually losing ground to the US and China. AI is shaping up to be the accelerant that renders this approach untenable. The EU’s leaders should be frank with their constituents about the nature of the challenge and act accordingly, before their union falls too far behind. – Bloomberg
Defense
When the Iranian missiles and drones came for the nerve center of America’s naval operations in the Middle East, some of them hit their mark. The U.S. Navy base in Bahrain was repeatedly targeted between late February and June. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. Navy used an unmanned surface vessel to rescue two American helicopter crew members shot down by Iran earlier in June. Navy officials say rescue operations like it are just one of the tasks for which they are preparing to use these sea drones. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. State Department said on Thursday that it had approved the potential sale of F/A-18F Super Hornet and EA-18G Growler aircraft training and related equipment to Australia for and estimated total cost of $250 million. – Reuters
The US Army struck deals with several companies to build critical minerals processing plants on military bases around the country, a first-of-its-kind initiative by the Trump administration to boost domestic production of key materials. – Bloomberg
James Stavridis writes: Finally, this decision should be seen in the context of other actions coming out of the Pentagon with little justification or explanation. These have included suddenly pulling people off the promotion lists for their first star; firing highest-ranking officers including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the chief of naval operations and the Army chief of staff; and abruptly announcing troop withdrawals from Europe and reductions in support to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. There may be valid reasons for some of this, but the Pentagon appears to be frequently acting on sudden whim. That decreases the desire of other nations to partner with the US, and therefore reduces Americans’ security. In terms of “Indo-Pacific,” it may be easy to say, “Oh, not a big deal, what’s in a name?” In this case, quite a bit — and none of it good. – Bloomberg