Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

American arms shipments to Israel have slowed since the early months of the war in Gaza because many of the previously ordered weapons have already been shipped or delivered while the Israeli government has put in fewer new requests, U.S. officials said. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s military operation in Rafah has exacerbated the hunger crisis in southern Gaza, where most of the population is located, while a projected famine in the enclave’s north remains a high risk, according to new estimates by food-security experts who warn that the situation remains precarious. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s military must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish students, the country’s Supreme Court ruled Tuesday, in a decision likely to put pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition as Israel fights its war in Gaza. – Wall Street Journal

The risks to humanitarian workers in Gaza are intolerable, the United Nations said on Tuesday as it pressed Israel for more effective coordination with the aid groups, approval for the U.N. to use essential security equipment and for the Israeli military to facilitate aid deliveries. – Reuters

Israel’s military said on Tuesday that Hamas militants fired a projectile at a UNICEF humanitarian aid convoy. The aid convoy, the IDF said, was coordinated with UNICEF to reunite children from northern Gaza with their families in the south. – Reuters

Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, issued a statement on Tuesday following the recent death of his sister, saying any deal that does not guarantee a ceasefire and an end to Israel’s offensive in Gaza was “not an agreement”. – Reuters

The U.S. military’s pier off Gaza may be extended well beyond its July 31 authorization date if the United States and aid organizations can get aid flowing again to Palestinians in the coming days and weeks, a senior U.S. official said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Tuesday announced 19 million euros ($20.3 million) in more aid to Gaza and criticised parts of the Israeli government for actions that she said undermined the country’s long-term security. – Reuters

Israel will spend the coming weeks trying to resolve the conflict with Lebanon’s Iran-backed group Hezbollah and would prefer a diplomatic solution, Israel’s national security adviser said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Senior U.N. officials have warned Israel that they will suspend the world body’s aid operations across Gaza unless Israel acts urgently to better protect humanitarian workers, two U.N. officials said Tuesday. The ultimatum is the latest in a series of U.N. steps demanding Israel do more to safeguard aid operations from strikes by its forces and to curb growing lawlessness hindering humanitarian workers. – Associated Press

Tuesday, the terrorist Wissam Abu Ashak was eliminated in an IAF aircraft strike directed by IDF intelligence in the southern Gaza Strip. Abu Ashak was involved in weapons smuggling operations for the Hamas terrorist organization. – Arutz Sheva

In his meeting Tuesday with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stressed to him that “The greatest threat to the future of the world, is Iran. And time is running out. Now is the time to materialize the commitment of American Administrations over the years- the promise to prevent Iran, from possessing nuclear weapons.” – Ynet

Hamas is experiencing an inability to produce weapons and lacks command and control, and the Gazan population is trying to prevent them from firing towards Israel. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF can destroy Hezbollah’s military capabilities in a matter of days, National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz said on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Unless a very unlikely invitation to the White House for a meeting with Biden is forthcoming, now is the time, with a month to spare, for the prime minister to politely decline the invitation to address the joint houses and to concentrate on the issues at home. The relationship between the US and Israel must be recalibrated like it has done so many times in the past. A divisive speech by an Israeli prime minister in Washington is not the way to do it. – Jerusalem Post

Ruth Marcus writes: So, I asked Plesner, does that mean time’s up now? “‘Time is up’ is only in the movies, not in politics,” he replied, noting Netanyahu’s skill in managing years of procrastination on the issue. Still, he said, “Time is not on the side of those who want to perpetuate the current state of exemption.” And that is a glimmer of good news in an otherwise dark time for Israel. – Washington Post

Hal Brands writes: The current Israeli government is not the most sympathetic ally: Indeed, Netanyahu and his political allies often seem bent on making their country more difficult to back. Yet America must work with the ally it has, and it must recognize that the path to peace isn’t always linear. As the risks in the Middle East rise, helping Israel make a credible threat of war may be the price of convincing Hezbollah and Iran that they should swerve to avoid it. – Bloomberg

Aluf Benn writes: In times of political trouble, the tried-and-true Netanyahu trick is dismissing the Knesset and going to the polls before a serious contender can build power. But Netanyahu could also defy conventional wisdom, reach a cease-fire deal, and even cut a plea bargain to end his slow-moving corruption trial, leaving office undefeated and throwing the thankless job of postwar rebuilding to a successor. Unfortunately for Israel, he’s showing no sign of such a radical change. – The Atlantic

Russia & Ukraine

The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Russia’s former defense minister and its army chief for war crimes committed during Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, ramping up its moves against Russia following charges against President Vladimir Putin and other officials. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine’s battle-weary troops are desperate for reinforcements. Civilians want to keep up the fight but are less eager to pick up rifles. The West is dangling membership in political and military blocs and feeding military aid but not enough for a breakthrough. – Wall Street Journal

The trial of American journalist Evan Gershkovich began in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg on Wednesday, 15 months after he was arrested and charged with espionage while on a reporting trip. – Washington Post

The European Court of Human Rights ruled on Tuesday that Russia and its proxy security forces in Crimea have committed multiple human rights violations during its decade-long occupation of the Ukrainian territory. – New York Times

Ukrainian shelling destroyed a radiation control post in Velyka Znamyanka in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russia’s management of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Ukraine has a clear understanding that any plan to end the war with Russia should be based on international law and the peace should be fair, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy welcomed the International Criminal Court’s decision to issue arrest warrants against Russia’s former defence minister and chief of general staff for strikes on Ukrainian civilians and civilian objects. – Reuters

Ukraine and Russia completed a large prisoner swap Tuesday, a rare deal between the nations at war since 2022 that was brokered by the United Arab Emirates. – Bloomberg

The Kremlin on Tuesday restricted access on Russian territory to 81 media outlets that do business in the European Union, including POLITICO, in retaliation against the EU’s ban on some Russia-linked media outlets within the bloc. – Politico

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will visit Moscow, Russian news agencies reported on Tuesday. Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov was quoted by state news agency TASS as saying that the sides had agreed on the timing of the meeting. However, he did not disclose the precise dates or whom Abbas would meet in Russia. – Times of Israel

John Herbst and Jeffrey A. Stacey write: This would be seen as a major blow to Vladimir Putin’s war effort and might well shake his regime even before the counter-offensives.  It would be a triumph of American national security policy, and a plus for the president heading into the election. It would also burnish American leadership.  The stakes for the U.S. and our European allies could not be higher. The time to act is now. – The Hill

Joseph Bosco writes: Strategic clarity will serve to deter not only Russia’s further aggression but China’s expansionism in the South China Sea. Not only Ukraine but Taiwan and the Philippines must pray that whoever the next Democratic or Republican president is, he or she will adopt the Stoltenberg policy of clarity rather than either Biden’s fearfulness or Trump’s callous indifference. – The Hill

Michael Liebreich, Lauri Myllyvirta, and Sam Winter-Levy write: The Ukrainian leadership is not naive about Russia’s capacity to inflict destruction on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. If leaders in Kyiv nonetheless see a strategic benefit in conducting lawful strikes on Russian oil refineries with Ukrainian-made drones—and if the risk that a spike in oil prices poses to American consumers is likely to be insignificant—the Biden administration would be ill advised to go out of its way to restrain them. – Foreign Affairs

Kseniya Kirillova writes: They will be the tools of a system dedicated to perpetuating one man’s power. Putin himself, it seems, believes more strongly in radical ideology and what he supposes to be the “historical mission” derived from it. The 71-year-old may be incapable of offering anything more than ultimatums, because he cannot, and does not want to find a way back from the decision he made on February 24, 2022, and before. The Kremlin and the radical nationalists are moving ever closer together. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt needs to import around $1.18 billion worth of mazut fuel oil and natural gas to end persistent power cuts exacerbated by consecutive heat waves, its Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in a televised address on Tuesday. – Reuters

Yemen’s Houthis said on Tuesday that they used a new ballistic missile to hit the MSC Sarah V vessel in the Arabian Sea, claiming responsibility for an attack reported a day earlier. – Reuters

The captain of a merchant vessel reported a missile hitting the water near the ship 52 nautical miles south of Yemen’s port of Aden, security information provider the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Dubai will spend 30 billion dirhams ($8.2 billion) to boost its rainwater drainage system after the Gulf city was hit by the heaviest downpours recorded in the UAE in 75 years in April. – Reuters

Oil steadied on Wednesday close to the highest level in almost two months, driven by forecasts of an eventual inventory drawdown during the third quarter and risks related to the Middle East conflict. – Reuters

China

Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Wednesday that China had carried out another “joint combat readiness patrol” near the island, as Beijing said it would track down and punish “diehard” independence supporters wherever they are. – Reuters

China’s foreign ministry described as “far-fetched” on Wednesday remarks by U.S. Ambassador Nicholas Burns, saying they deviated from key understandings reached by the presidents of both nations. – Reuters

Peru asked a judge to withdraw its request to strip a Chinese state-owned company’s exclusive rights to operate a “megaport” it is building on Peru’s Pacific coast, sources said on Tuesday, cooling tensions before the countries’ leaders meet this week. – Reuters

China hopes the European side will pursue a “rational and pragmatic” policy towards the country, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a phone call with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto on Tuesday. – Reuters

In many parts of China, the warehouses and industrial parks that used to be a magnet for international investors are grappling with a surprising slowdown in business activity. – Bloomberg

The latest South China Sea clash saw China’s coast guard wielding axes and a Philippine sailor lose his thumb in an escalation that underscored Beijing’s willingness to see how far it can push Manila — and its allies in Washington – Bloomberg

Asia

When eight Tajik men sought asylum at the southwestern U.S. border months ago, federal authorities had no reason to doubt that they were desperate migrants fleeing a poor country in war-torn Central Asia. – New York Times

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele met Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese in Canberra on Wednesday to discuss security and development ties, as the United States and China vie for influence in the Pacific Islands region. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with his counterpart from the Maldives on Tuesday and said Washington sought a deeper partnership with the Indian Ocean island state and stood with it in ensuring a free-and-open Indo-Pacific region and in dealing with climate change. – Reuters

The U.S. welcomed Vietnam’s planning and investment minister on Tuesday for talks on enhancing economic cooperation, and said ties were stronger than ever, days after Hanoi upset Washington by hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin. – Reuters

Thailand’s economy is expected to grow at its potential rate by late this year or early in 2025, while the policy interest rate is neutral and not undermining the inflation target, central bank officials said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Vietnam is looking for China’s support with the development of the country’s high-speed railway networks including cross-border lines that would promote trade between the two countries. – Bloomberg

The Philippines has sent a diplomatic note to China and is eyeing a dialogue with Beijing soon following last week’s clash in the South China Sea, according to Manila’s foreign affairs chief. – Bloomberg

Luke Coffey writes: Thou alone, Georgia, could do it. No other people can compare with thee for endurance.” So, with national elections now scheduled for October and still no political resolution or compromise in sight, it’s going to be a long and difficult summer. The last thing the South Caucasus or the Black Sea region needs is more instability. And if policymakers aren’t watching Georgia now, they should be. – Politico

Victor Cha writes: And they must act in concert: even if one U.S. ally in Asia manages to stabilize its own bilateral relations with Trump, a deterioration of the United States’ relationships with surrounding countries will put the region’s overall security in a more precarious state. Most important, however, is that Asian leaders realize that no matter how much they try to stroke Trump’s ego, the ride is likely to be bumpier and more unpredictable a second time around. – Foreign Affairs

Africa

Kenyan police on Tuesday opened fire on protesters after crowds stormed the country’s parliament, where lawmakers had been debating a raft of tax increases aimed at stemming a debilitating debt crisis. – Wall Street Journal

Hundreds of Kenyan police officers arrived in Haiti on Tuesday as part of a long-awaited U.S.- and United Nations-backed mission to fight gangs and bring order in the Caribbean nation, which has been ravaged by violence and spreading hunger. – Wall Street Journal

For years, Russia covertly propped up authoritarian leaders, exploited natural resources and fought extremists in a number of African countries. – New York Times

An ambush by a “terrorist group” killed 21 Nigerien soldiers near the country’s border with Burkina Faso on Tuesday, Niger’s ruling military junta said in a statement read on national television. – Associated Press

United States

The Biden administration wants to keep gas prices stable ahead of the election by encouraging oil to flow into global markets. The effort has run square into another priority: being tough on adversaries Russia, Iran and Venezuela. – Wall Street Journal

The United States and the Philippines are seeking to de-escalate tensions with Beijing after Chinese coast guard ships forcibly boarded Philippine navy vessels in the most serious confrontation in the South China Sea in recent years, according to U.S. and Philippine officials. – Washington Post

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his new Russian counterpart for the first time, in a rare direct communication between the adversaries since Russia invaded Ukraine more than two years ago. – Bloomberg

Bret Stephens writes: That could take decades. In the meantime, Jews have a history of parting company with institutions that mistreated them, like white-shoe law firms and commercial banks. In so many cases, they went on to create better institutions that operated on principles of intellectual merit and fair play — including many of the universities that have since stumbled. – New York Times

Andreas Kluth writes: If history is any guide, such men may feel that the world is theirs for the taking, alone or in coordination. In that case the US, hopefully flanked by its many allies, will again have to show that the axis miscalculated. But oh, the human toll that this would cost — just as it did the first and second times. – Bloomberg

Defense

The US Air Force has removed the manager of its troubled program to build its next intercontinental ballistic missile, citing a “loss of confidence” in management of the project with a price tag that has soared at least 37% to an estimated $131 billion. – Bloomberg

To keep up with developments in roadside bombs, the Pentagon is buying new versions of venerable jamming systems such as the JCREW, or Joint Counter Radio-Controlled Improvised Explosive Device Electronic Warfare. – Defense One

The heads of the Navy and the Marine Corps settled on a standard to measure the readiness of the fleet of U.S. amphibious warships, according to a joint memorandum of understanding USNI News obtained this week. – USNI News

The Department of Defense released today its new information technology advancement strategy, called the Fulcrum Strategy, aimed at revamping the department’s cyber, command, control and communications capabilities. – Breaking Defense

Logan Slone writes: Outside the U.S., Tamarack Defense projects minimal production deliveries, but steady growth in development activity, with total contractor-available funding on the order of $2 billion to $3 billion per year for sixth-gen programs. Production deliveries for these programs remain beyond the 2030 horizon, but early prototypes are expected within the medium-term research and development plan. – Defense News

Frank Kuhn writes: No doubt, changes to U.S. military doctrine and strategy will not happen overnight and may be difficult to achieve. It is also true that no strategy is entirely risk-free — even a maritime blockade against China may lead to escalation. Nevertheless, engaging in these sorts of discussions could eventually prove more worthwhile to address the risks of nuclear escalation than trying to regulate every fancy weapon system that is currently under development. – War on the Rocks